2019 Playoff Preview - AFC

The NFL regular season has run its course, and 20 teams are now stuck at home watching with the rest of us. That leaves 12 teams alive, all with their eyes set on the ultimate prize.

Of course, “alive” is a relative term. As we’ve seen over recent years, where a team starts its playoff run has a great deal of impact on where they end up. Each of the twelve Super Bowl representatives over the past six years started with a first round bye, and at this point we have to consider those teams the overwhelming favorites to reach the Super Bowl this year. The combination of home field advantage, one fewer game, and the overall higher quality of these teams give them a huge edge in claiming a conference title.

But that doesn’t mean victory is guaranteed. After all, if it did we wouldn’t bother playing the games. For the eight teams playing this weekend, there is still reason to hope, to believe that if everything comes together they can make a run and win four straight to claim a Super Bowl title.

Starting today with the AFC:

AFC

6. Tennessee Titans

The Titans have what, on paper, looks like the most difficult road in the AFC. They have to start by going to New England to face the traditional big bad of the conference, and a win there would only send them to Baltimore before a likely matchup against Kansas City. They would have to play at an extremely high level for three straight games just to get out of the conference, to say nothing of what would be an even tougher test against the NFC in the Super Bowl.

And yet of the four teams playing this weekend in the AFC, the Titans might be the one I’d most likely bet on to make such a run. Because while Tennessee’s 9-7 record is the least impressive in the conference, it isn’t representative of who the team is now.

Tennessee’s season turned around when they made the switch from Marcus Mariota to Ryan Tannehill at quarterback and got AJ Brown more integrated with their offense. If you credit the loss to the Broncos when they made the change to Mariota, that means they are 7-3 in the ten games since they made this change, a record during that stretch that is better than the three other teams playing this weekend.

I’m still not sure if a ten game sample is enough to say that Tannehill actually is as good as the superstar numbers he is putting up. During that stretch they played only four opponents who finished with a winning record—two losses, a win over a Texans team resting their stars in Week 17, and a win over the Chiefs in Patrick Mahomes’s first game back from injury. That’s not a bad performance necessarily, but it’s not something that suggests they can go out and beat elite opponents.

Of course, I’m not sure their first opponent would qualify as “elite”. After a hot start to the season, the Patriots have been fairly pedestrian down the stretch, culminating with last week’s embarrassing loss to Miami that forced them into playing this weekend in the first place.

This is a good matchup for the Titans to have in the first week. Their weakness is their defense, particularly against the pass, and New England’s offense is not threatening to anyone. New England doesn’t have the weapons or the quarterback to attack them down the field. In fact, the only AFC playoff team that really scares me with their passing attack is Kansas City, a team they wouldn’t have to face until the championship round and who they’ve already beaten. Baltimore’s running game will give them trouble, as they will for any defense, but Tennessee’s ability to avoid turnovers will keep them in games against teams that live on profiting from short fields.

5. Buffalo Bills

This is one of the harder roads to envision, because I think Buffalo has one of the lowest ceilings of all the playoff teams. Their roster is built around a dominant defense, which is good for winning a steady stream of a games through the regular season but not for going on a sustained run in the playoffs. Eventually their offense is going to have to step forward and be more effective than they have been to this point in the season.

That isn’t to say that their offense is bereft of talent. They did a good job rebuilding their offensive line this offseason, and now they have a reasonably stable unit to protect Josh Allen. An elite pass rush could pose problems, but I don’t see much of that on the AFC side of the field. They are a team that wants to run the ball, and I think they have the ability to do so against most of the playoff field. There aren’t a lot of dominant run defenses that they will be likely to face, with most of the AFC teams sitting in the middle of the pack.

Of course, keeping the ball on the ground only works if you can get out to an early lead or at least keep the game competitive. And to do that, Buffalo is going to need perfect performances from Josh Allen.

Allen took a step forward this season, but he is still clearly outmatched by every other quarterback in the playoffs. He isn’t going to win a game going pass for pass with Deshaun Watson or Lamar Jackson or even Tom Brady. But he could very easily lose the game for the Bills, if he makes the mistakes that still occasionally plague him. He did a good job cutting down on interceptions this year, but those aren’t the only negative plays a quarterback can make. He was in the top ten in times sacked this season, and he still has moments of erratic accuracy, particularly on down the field throws. If he kills drives with sacks, or misses big play opportunities, this defense isn’t enough to carry Buffalo against elite competition.

4. Houston Texans

Houston has been in this spot before. They’ve won the AFC South six of the past nine seasons. On three of the previous five occasions, they actually won their first playoff game and advanced to the Divisional Round. But never in their franchise history have they made it farther than that, and entering this postseason most people seem to be assuming this will just be the same old story.

So why might this year be different? The simple answer is star power. Previous Texans teams have made the playoffs based on a weak division and a solid overall roster, with a team that can struggle to grimy victories over the Jaguars and Titans and Colts of the world but don’t have the players capable of elevating their games when facing quality opposition across the board. Depth is essential to winning in the postseason, but when the margins grow this thin games can often swing on having a player who can simply go out and beat whoever he’s put up against.

The Texans didn’t have many of those players in their past postseason visits. Their first four playoff appearances they were represented by quarterbacks like Matt Schaub and TJ Yates, players who could be counted on to avoid shooting themselves in the foot against mediocre competition but were unable to create plays on their own. They got the Texans as far as they could, and that was when Houston decided to try to go a step farther.

Deshaun Watson has been fantastic for the Texans during the regular season, but the postseason is why they traded two first round selections in order to take him. He excelled in pressure situations in college, and they are going to need him to step up his game over the next month as well. Buffalo is an immediate challenge, a team with an aggressive secondary and dangerous pass rush that could force the sort of negative plays that still pop up for Watson here and there. He is going to need to attack their secondary to avoid going down behind his still shaky offensive line, and he is going to need to make plays with his legs to get the most out of an offense that still doesn’t have a great deal of talent around him.

The other critical factor for the Texans is going to be health. The biggest name out there is obviously JJ Watt, their future Hall of Fame game wrecker on the defensive line. They had thought him lost for the season, and it’s still unclear whether he will be able to return in time for any sort of playoff run. But if they can get him back, he is the sort of game changing force that could elevate a defense that has been occasionally rocky this year.

The other player to watch in terms of health is Will Fuller. Fuller is an inconsistent player, but at this point there is no debating the impact he brings to this offense. When he’s healthy, his speed as a deep threat reshapes how defenses play against the Texans, both providing opportunities to hit big plays and opening up space for DeAndre Hopkins to work underneath. They’ve managed to replicate his impact somewhat in recent weeks with Kenny Stills, but the numbers still clearly show how crucial it is to have him on the field.

This isn’t the same Texans team that has floundered in the past. They aren’t as well rounded, but they may have a higher ceiling, thanks to players like Watson, Watt, and Hopkins. They knocked off both New England and Kansas City earlier this year, proving that they can play with the elites of the AFC, even if they have yet to show the consistency required to do so.

3. New England Patriots

This feels kind of weird. Normally the Patriots are the clear favorites, and I find myself having to talk myself into a way that they don’t emerge from the AFC. But even if they had beaten Miami this past weekend and earned a first round bye, I still would have found myself skeptical about their path forward. The defense has predictably regressed after their early season dominance, and their offense hasn’t stepped forward to pick up the slack. If anything they’ve gone the other way, looking limp and ineffective behind a weak stable of weapons and a quarterback showing all the signs of being thoroughly washed.

But still, these are the Patriots. And even as they have struggled over the second half of the season, they do most of the things you look for in a championship team. Over their final eight games that saw them go 4-4 they turned the ball over only seven times total, and won the turnover margin more often than they lost it. They committed fewer penalties this year than any other team in the playoffs, and they are not going to beat themselves.

This is New England, so I can’t rule out a scenario where Bill Belichick draws up some brilliant defensive gameplan or Tom Brady chews apart an opposing defense with precision passes underneath. They still have a lot of talent at key positions, and it’s possible to imagine them getting back to the team that was boatracing opponents at the start of the season.

But that would require them to change everything we’ve seen from them over the past two months, and while I’ll admit it’s possible, I think the most likely route to a title is to play it safe and hope their opponents shoot themselves in the feet. New England will want to keep these games low scoring, and they will want to keep them messy. Work at a slow pace, play a field position battle, and hope they can reach the end of the game within a single score. At the right moment, call for a creative blitz or a trick play that could mess the other team up.

The Patriots have dominated the league for the past two decades not because they have a consistent formula for success, but because they have been able to adopt a number of different formulas. At times this has meant racing away from opponents in high scoring shootouts. At others this has meant winning ugly, like they did in both their Super Bowl victories over the Rams. It’s a harder road ahead of them this year, but it’s one they are better equipped to follow than any other team in the league, with a coach and quarterback who have been there so many times before.

The Irrelevant Week 17

Sixteen weeks are in the book, and we have only one more week of regular season action. One more Sunday loaded down with more games than a single person could possibly watch before we get into the dreary, single games of the postseason.

And as happens every Week 17, most of the games mean absolutely nothing. The NFC East and West are still up for grabs, as is the last playoff spot in the AFC. Playoff seeding is at stake as well, with New England and Kansas City both aiming for a first round bye in the AFC and four different teams competing in the messy NFC.

But the rest of the league has very little to play for. By my count there are six games that are absolutely meaningless, as well as a couple others with minimal significance. But that doesn’t mean they aren’t worth watching! For each of these games, I’ve selected something to keep your eye on if it ends up on your TV, because even meaningless football is still football.

New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills

Interior Penetration

The easy choice here is to point to the two second year quarterbacks. In 2018 these teams both selected in the top ten, and both took players they expect to be the future of their franchises. Sam Darnold and Josh Allen have been very up and down through their first two years, and both are hoping to finish 2019 on a high note.

But quarterback is the low hanging fruit, and I’m going to be highlighting that position for a couple other games below. And, as it happens, these two teams targeted the same position in the top ten in 2019 as well. With the third pick the Jets selected defensive tackle Quinnen Williams, while at number nine the Bills took Ed Oliver.

These were two of my favorite players in the class, and while neither has dominated in their rookie years the way Nick Bosa has, both have shown flashes to leave their teams’ hopeful for the future. Of the two Oliver has been more promising, totaling five sacks despite only playing about half of Buffalo’s defensive snaps. As the season has gone along he has earned a larger role in this defense and has the opportunity to flash both in this game and in the playoffs.

Williams has had a bit rougher go of things. He missed some time early in the season and hasn’t been able to earn a full time role on what is a much weaker defensive line than Oliver is dealing with in Buffalo. He’s not as purely athletic and explosive as Oliver, so it’s unsurprising that his game hasn’t adapted as quickly. But he had a sack a week ago, giving him 2.5 on the season, and if he can repeat that performance he can build good momentum headed into 2020.

Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals

Same old dysfunction

This year was supposed to be different for Cleveland. After two decades floundering at the bottom of the league, they finally had a franchise quarterback, a defensive superstar, and a coach everyone believed in. Sixteen weeks later Baker Mayfield has suffered through a severe sophomore slump, Myles Garrett is suspended indefinitely, and Freddie Kitchens could be on his way out after one year. And once again they find themselves at the very end of the season with no hope of reaching the playoffs (though at least this time it’s their in-state rivals that have locked up the first overall pick).

This shouldn’t be a shock of course. After all, these are the Browns. And I don’t say that in a sarcastic “this team is cursed” kind of way. I say that more as, “this team is dysfunctional from the top down and won’t be fixed until they see a change in ownership.”

The owners were the ones who hired Kitchens after half a season of experience as an offensive coordinator. The owners were the ones who signed off on bringing in Odell Beckham Jr, a volatile personality who causes conflict whenever the team isn’t winning (as he has this year, reportedly telling every opponent they’ve played to “come get me” as a sort of more direct trade request). This is the sort of situation that turned Garrett—a player known since his time in high school as a genial, friendly guy—into a player who would lose his temper and assault an opponent on the field.

What’s going to happen this Sunday? I have no goddamn clue. Maybe it will be uneventful, just another in a long line of dull battles for Ohio. Or maybe shit will go completely off the rails, with a meltdown on the field matched only by the chaos unfolding on the sidelines. Because these are the Browns, and even when we think they’ve hit rock bottom, they find a way to sink even lower.

Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The chase for 30-30

At this point you have to give Jameis Winston credit for being as Jameis Winston as it is possible to be. He has a monumental lead in interceptions with 28 on the year, ten more than anyone else in the league and the most by any quarterback since Brett Favre in 2005. With two more he can become the first quarterback to throw 30 interceptions in a season since Vinny Testaverde in 1988.

If he does this however, he will also become the first player ever to throw 30 interceptions and 30 touchdowns in the same season. Because as mistake-prone as he is, his ability to generate yards, first downs, and points through the air is unmatched in the current NFL. He is second in the league in touchdown passes, and with 5 in his final game he can catch Lamar Jackson for the league lead at 36 (since Jackson isn’t going to play this weekend). And not only does he lead the league in yards, with 328 more he can reach the third most prolific season in passing yardage in NFL history. All of these goals are well within reach for Winston this weekend, because everything is within reach of Winston every weekend.

Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings

Minnesota’s search for life on offense

Most of these games are irrelevant because both teams have already been eliminated, so any growth we see will have to carry over into next season. This is not the case for Minnesota, who after a loss on Monday to Green Bay is locked into the six seed. They have nothing left to play for, and their eyes will be on whoever they go on the road to face on Wild Card weekend.

Unfortunately they can’t just relax and enjoy their week off, because last week was an utter catastrophe. Their offense managed only seven first downs the entire game, the second time their offense has been suffocated by Green Bay this year. The offense is the strength of this team now, but it has gone completely silent in some of their biggest games, including their first matchup with Chicago this season.

Minnesota needs to prove to themselves that they can turn it around. They need to figure out how to block Chicago’s dangerous defensive front. They need to make sure that Adam Thielen is healthy. They need to find a good balance between the run and the pass, rather than what we saw last week where they went run-heavy in the first half then abandoned the ground game in the second. They need to get their confidence back headed into the postseason, otherwise it is going to be a very brief stay.

Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams

Chandler Jones hunting Jared Goff

The single season sack record is 22.5, held by Michael Strahan. Chandler Jones will enter this game with 19, leaving him four sacks short of setting a new record. Four sacks in a single game is a total he has reached twice already this season, against Daniel Jones in Week 7 and then again against Russell Wilson a week ago.

The Rams have a better offensive line than either of those teams, but Jones may be the best pure pass rusher in football, and with nothing else to play for the Cardinals will be gunning to get him as many sacks as possible. The question will become how aggressively the Rams are willing to counter this. A few years ago when Jared Allen came within half a sack of the record in a similarly irrelevant game, the Bears spent the remaining quarter and a half triple teaming him to keep him from setting the mark. Will the Rams do the same once Jones gets a couple sacks under his belt, or will they play it straight and give him a shot at the record?

Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Nyheim Hines

This game could have playoff implications, but not for either of the teams actually playing in it. Both Jacksonville and Indianapolis have been eliminated, and the most interested eyes watching this game will belong to the Oakland Raiders. There is a scenario where—if everything breaks right—a Colts victory could be the difference between the Titans and the Raiders making it into the postseason.

If you find yourself watching this game, I’m not really sure what to say to you. There isn’t much of interest on either side of the field. Except perhaps when Jacksonville punts the ball away, and it ends up in the hands of Colts running back Nyheim Hines.

Nobody was really paying attention to the Colts-Panthers contest of a week ago, but those who were saw a spectacular performance from Indianapolis’s fill-in punt returner. Hines returned two punts for a touchdown in the game, making him responsible for a third of all punt return touchdowns this season. With only seven punt returns on the season, he is averaging 37.4 yards per return and scoring on 28% of his attempts.

Can he keep this up? Of course not. There is no way that the Colts have had the best returner in the history of football just sitting on their bench and didn’t realize it until Chester Rogers got hurt. But on the off chance they did, it’s worth flipping over to see Hines with the ball in his hands, to see if he can make magic happen once again.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs

The end of Rivers?

Kansas City could still earn a first round bye, but that will only be possible if Miami beats New England which, yeah, isn’t going to happen. So for all intents and purposes, this game is as meaningless as the ones listed above. (Kansas City could be jumped by Houston for the third seed with a loss, but the difference between the third and fourth seed is not particularly meaningful.)

Instead we’ll focus on the other side of the field. This season has been a nightmare for the Chargers, from their continued struggles at the end of games to the ongoing disaster of their move to Los Angeles. And for the first time in years, some of these struggles can be placed at the feet of their quarterback.

Rivers has been a great player—a Hall of Famer in my mind—but this year he has struggled with consistency after being the one rock solid piece of this roster for the past decade and a half. And it may very well be time for the Chargers to move on from him. There’s a chance he could pop up somewhere else next year, but I think the most likely outcome is that he retires back to San Diego, a city he never moved from. His career never had the same dynamic moments as the other members of the 2004 quarterback class, but we shouldn’t allow ourselves to forget how elite he actually was as he goes out onto the field for possibly the last time.

New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers

The Future of Cam Newton

This game matters, but only if the Packers lose to the Lions. If Green Bay wins (as they should), then the outcome of this game has no significance for the Saints. With a 49ers win over Seattle later in the night, they will be the third seed. If Seattle wins, they will jump up to the second seed and have a first round bye.

This game happens at the same time as the Packers-Lions matchup, so they won’t know for sure if a win matters until at least midway through this game. At the same time, I don’t expect them to take things too seriously. They will go out, light the Panthers up for a quarter or two with their starters—maybe give Michael Thomas some more breathing room on his single season reception record—and then coast the rest of the way.

This game is about the Panthers, and like a number of the games I discussed above, it is about the quarterback position. Early in the season there was a great deal of speculation that they would move on from Cam Newton, with people believing that they had found something in Kyle Allen. Of course, it took only another couple of weeks for Allen to fall to pieces and eventually find his way to the bench.

So now they are taking a look at Will Grier, their third round pick from this year’s draft. Grier was my favorite quarterback available this season, but the early returns have been grim at best. He struggled mightily in the preseason, unable to even earn the backup role for this team. And in his first start he averaged barely over five yards per attempt while throwing three interceptions and taking five sacks.

Obviously nothing firm will be decided with this game. But if Grier comes out and lays another egg, Carolina will be left with few options headed into the offseason. It remains to be seen what condition Newton will be in when he returns, and even if he will return at all. But with one quarterback who has proven he can’t start and another who looks shaky at best, rolling the dice on Newton’s upside may once again be their only path forward.