2018 Super Bowl Preview

Quarterback is the most important position in the NFL, and football games are often summarized as a battle of the two starting passers. Brady versus Manning, Namath versus Unitas, Elway versus Marino. Oftentimes a team is described solely by the player they have under center, and it is not unreasonable to assume that the team with the better quarterback is going to win in the end.

This season has done a pretty good job of challenging that notion. After all, if the Super Bowl was just a contest of Tom Brady against Nick Foles, I wouldn’t even be bothering to write this preview. The Patriots have an overwhelming advantage at the most important position on the field, and they are the clear favorites in this game for that reason.

But a football game isn’t a matchup of quarterbacks. Brady and Foles won’t share the field for a single play on Sunday, and the competition they face will be at vastly different levels. The Eagles have a chance in this game because outside of the quarterback position they are better than the Patriots at almost every level of the field. And so I have gone through and selected the five most crucial matchups that will go towards deciding which of these quarterbacks ends up hoisting the Lombardi Trophy at the end of the day.

New England Offensive Interior versus Philadelphia Pass Rush

This game has been portrayed in a lot of places as a battle of a couple dominant star players versus a well rounded team, but that isn’t entirely accurate. The Eagles are certainly a more well rounded team than the Patriots, but if you look at the units as a whole their defensive line is a star on par with Brady or Rob Gronkowski.

If Philadelphia has a clear star up front it’s Fletcher Cox. There’s a reason he received more guaranteed money than any non-quarterback in NFL history, and it’s because he is a dominant force in every aspect of the game. Playing in the interior stifles his pass rush numbers and keeps him from being among the highest profile defensive players, but the way he commands double teams goes a long way towards closing down running lanes and freeing up edge rushers.

A player like Cox is exactly what a team needs to slow down New England’s offense. Pressure off the edge is obviously great, but Brady is a master at handling and eluding defensive ends. If he doesn’t get the ball out of his hand before they can arrive, he always knows how to slide forward in the pocket to keep his balance and open up a passing lane.

Pressure in his face is a different story. Brady doesn’t move very well side to side, and he isn’t going to make plays if forced out of the pocket. The Patriots have tried investing in the interior of their offensive line and have gotten mixed results, and it remains the most obvious Achilles heel of their offense. Two weeks ago Marcell Dareus demolished New England’s guards and center, harassing Brady nearly nonstop before wearing down late in the game. This same thing happened in the Super Bowl last season, when Grady Jarrett grabbed three sacks and was on his way to being named Super Bowl MVP.

In both of these cases the Patriots struggled offensively through the first half as they were beaten along the front by a menacing pass rush. Obviously that didn’t last, and I’ll have more to say on this subject later. But this is one area where the Eagles have a clear edge on the other teams that have challenged the Patriots. Not only do they have a top level star on their defensive line, they’ve surrounded him with a deep and talented stable of weapons that can constantly attack when other teams would wear down.

No Eagles reached double digit sacks this year, but that was mostly because they did their best to spread them around. Cox, Brandon Graham, Chris Long, and Derek Barnett each recorded at least five sacks , while Timmy Jernigan and Vinny Curry provided additional threats up the middle. The Eagles had seven different linemen play more than 40% of their snaps, and no player played more than Brandon Graham’s 65%. The Jaguars had only five players above the 40% mark, and three of these played more than 70%.

The Eagles have the ability to attack from a variety of players from a variety of angles, and they will stay fresh far longer than most pass rushes in the league. And they are even better against the run than they are chasing the passer, leading the league allowing only 79 yards on the ground per game.

The Patriots have had very little interest in running the ball this postseason, calling more than twice as many passes as runs through their first two games against lesser run defenses. I don’t expect them to show much interest in challenging Philadelphia on the ground either, instead focusing on quicker passes to get their receivers and running backs in space to try to take the defensive line out of the game.

Philadelphia Back Seven versus Open Space

Philadelphia’s defense was one of the best in the league this season, but it isn’t without its weaknesses. As good as the defensive line is, there are some scary holes on the back end. Their cornerbacks can be beaten by double moves, and their linebackers aren’t the same kind of space eating monsters other top defenses like Jacksonville and Minnesota boast. And, most concerning of all, they have repeatedly struggled to corral ball carriers in space over the course of the season.

This is the one matchup on either side of the ball where the Patriots have the clearest edge. The Eagles play a lot of soft coverage to avoid being beaten over the top, trusting that they can stop any team as long as they don’t give up big plays. But no team is better at moving the ball without big plays than the Patriots. Brady is a master at getting the ball out of his hands quickly and trusting his teammates to make plays after the catch, and even a couple small breakdowns will be enough to exploit Philadelphia’s defense.

The Eagles were the seventh ranked defense by DVOA against number one receivers and the top defense in the league against number two receivers, but they ranked only tenth against running backs, 17th against tight ends, and 22^nd against all other receivers. This is not a formula for success against a team that likes to spread the field around a quarterback who excels at getting the ball to every single target available to him.

Philadelphia is going to have to change the way they play defense in order to keep up with the Patriots. They’re going to need to be willing to risk big plays over the top, bringing their cornerbacks down and asking them to play tight coverage against slants and arrow routes. They are missing their best linebacker Jordan Hicks, and they are going to need Mychal Kendricks and Dannell Ellerbe to step up their games in coverage.

The Patriots are ideally suited to take on this secondary, and they won’t have to change anything about their game plan to exploit Philadelphia’s weakness. Obviously Gronkowski is going to get his share of targets, and expect both Dion Lewis and James White to rack up a lot of catches as well, both coming out of the backfield and playing receiver from the slot. If the Eagles do adjust, the Patriots have become much more aggressive this season about going downfield to Brandin Cooks and Chris Hogan, and as long as the offensive line holds up, there will be opportunities for New England to bust a few big plays.

Philadelphia Offensive Line versus New England Front Seven

The Eagles aren’t going to win this game on the arm of Foles. New England has some occasional breakdowns in their secondary, and against a top notch passer they can give up chunks of big yardage. The Eagles are clever with their scheme, and they might be able to strike a few big plays down the field like they did against the Vikings. But more likely than not they are going to do everything in their power to keep the ball on the ground.

There are a couple different ways to succeed as a running team in the NFL. The first is to rely on explosiveness. Sometimes the running back will plow into the line for no gain, but as long as you stick with it, eventually he’ll get to the second level where he can do real damage picking up yardage in big chunks. The second is with consistency, churning out three to seven yard gains play after play to slowly work your way down the field.

The Eagles very much fall into this second camp. They go three deep at running back, and all three would rather run through a tackler than run away from him. Their offensive line is one of the best run blocking units in the league, and they do an excellent job keeping the running backs clean to get up to the linebackers. Their backs don’t make a lot of people miss once they reach the secondary, but they are effective churning out consistent yardage nonetheless.

This is the perfect way to attack New England’s defense. The Patriots are a well coached and disciplined unit, but the talent on that side of the ball simply isn’t there. Having traded away Jamie Collins last year, they were entirely dependent on Dont’a Hightower in the linebacker corps, and when he went down for the season it absolutely destroyed an already weak front seven. Their safety combo of Patrick Chung and Devin McCourtey is good at cleaning up the messes that their front makes, but they usually can’t do anything until the running back has already picked up a sizeable gain.

Much as on the defensive side of the ball, the Eagles offense has a clear edge in the trenches. They will absolutely push around New England’s defensive line and linebackers, and they will give Jay Ajayi, LeGarrette Blount, and Corey Clement all the space they need to get good speed rolling into the second level. The Eagles will want to keep the ball on the ground to chew up the clock and shorten the game, keeping their defense rested so they can harass Brady whenever he’s on the field.

Obviously the Patriots will try to counter this. They will stack the box against the Eagles, and they will leave themselves exposed some on the perimeter, trusting that the relatively slow backs in Philadelphia’s backfield won’t beat them around the edge. Without Carson Wentz playing they won’t have to fear the quarterback keeper, and they can focus in on the running backs on every play.

Of course, Philadelphia will be expecting this as well, and they will have ways to counter it. And that brings us to the most intriguing matchup on the field, and the one that will go a long way towards deciding whether the Eagles are able to consistently move the football.

New England Linebackers and Safeties versus the Run-Pass Option

Over the past few years a new trend has emerged in college football, and slowly it has slunk its way into the NFL. The “Run-Pass Option”, or RPO, is a staple of just about every college scheme and a minor tweak to most NFL offenses. But more than any other team the Eagles use it as a foundational concept, and they have only relied on it more since Foles took over at quarterback.

The name of these Run-Pass Options is pretty self explanatory. On these plays the quarterback is given the option to either hand the ball off or throw it out to a wide receiver, based usually on the movement of the defense after the snap. If the defense sticks tight to the wide receivers, he’ll hand it off to the running back. If the linebackers and safeties come down hard against the run, he’ll lob it into the opening they leave for a quick, easy completion.

RPOs are nightmares to defend (and arguably unfair and against the rules, but that’s a conversation for another day). Even the typically the disciplined Patriots defense struggles against them, as we saw repeatedly in their opening night loss to Kansas City. Doug Pederson worked with Andy Reid for years, and his scheme has the same tendencies that have caused fits for New England for years.

On any given play the cornerbacks on the outside are going to stick to their receivers, and the defensive line is going to try to fight into the backfield, regardless of whether the ball is handed off or the quarterback drops back. The true strain on the defense is on the linebackers and safeties, who have to read and react as the play develops. New England’s linebackers are a major problem in this area, unathletic and unaccustomed to playing in space. Zach Ertz will undoubtedly come open several times running up the seam, and it will be on Foles to recognize and hit him.

The safeties are a slightly different story. McCourtey is obviously excellent in coverage, a former cornerback who has only gotten better since moving to safety. But the Patriots usually rely on him to stay back and protect them deep, too far to really do anything about these quick passes. Chung will bear much more of a burden, playing in a kind of hybrid linebacker/safety role that will often ask him to do multiple things on a single play. He’s gotten a lot better over the past couple years, but this is still a major ask of him.

The best option for the Patriots may be to turn to the referees. Above I mentioned that these RPOs occasionally skirt the rules, and that’s when it comes to the offensive line. On these plays linemen are told to block as if they are any other run, which often means chasing down to linebackers to seal them off expecting the back to come behind them. But if the quarterback holds onto the ball, this can often lead to linemen being two or three yards downfield when the pass is thrown, a clear penalty.

Ineligible man downfield is one of those penalties that is not called nearly as often as it should be. Officials rarely bother to watch offensive linemen, too busy monitoring for stuff like defensive holding, pass interference, and roughing the passer. But referees are also human beings, and if they spend the first half of the game hearing the greatest head coach of all time shout at them to watch the linemen downfield, they might keep a closer eye on things in the second half. One call in a crucial moment could be enough to sink an Eagles drive, and with the other issues on their offense they don't have a lot of margin of error to work with.

Philadelphia versus Time

I’m not going to sugarcoat things. This is going to be an uphill battle for the Eagles. I can see a clear path to victory for Philadelphia, if they keep the ball on the ground on offense and disrupt Brady on defense. But I can see about ten clear paths to victory for New England, as they have shown time and again to be the most resilient and adaptable team in the NFL.

Philadelphia can win with the formula I mentioned above, but the key is going to be sticking to that formula. This means that they can’t overreact to early trends in the game, calling the same plays whether they jump out to an early lead or fall behind. This sounds easier than it is, but even before the game reaches the fourth quarter teams will often allow themselves to get out of balance.

In the second quarter of games this year, when the score was within 10 points teams passed the ball on 60% of offensive plays. When a team was up by 10 or more in the second quarter, they passed the ball only 58% of the time, and when they were down by double digits, they passed the ball 64% of the time. These don’t seem like major shifts in strategy, but the fact that there are any shifts at all so early in the game are troubling. A 10 point margin in the second quarter shouldn’t affect play calling at all, yet offenses still get more aggressive when trailing or more conservative when leading.

Philadelphia cannot allow themselves to fall into this trap. Teams that get down early against the Patriots have a tendency to panic, and that sort of panic plays right into the strength of this opportunistic defense. A couple ill advised passes could lead to turnovers that turn this game into a blowout, and if the Eagles fall behind early I could see this being over by halftime.

It isn’t exactly smooth sailing for Philadelphia if they get out to a lead either, as we’ve seen from New England’s recent comeback victories over the Falcons and the Jaguars. New England’s habit of working slow, steady drives down the field with quick passes are a nightmare for defenses, as pass rushers tire far quicker than the men trying to block them. Last season the Patriots ran 93 offensive plays against Atlanta, and by the end of the game they were able to do whatever they wanted offensively. Philadelphia’s depth along the defensive front will be crucial here, but if the Patriots can execute a successful hurry up offense they can trap the Eagles with tired defenders on the field.

People talk a lot about defending with a lead, but the real trick to playing defense with a lead is not to play defense at all. Sustained drives are crucial to protecting a victory, as the Jaguars found out all too well two weeks ago. In the fourth quarter of that game the Jaguars had four first downs while they still had the lead, and here are the plays they ran:

13:37 remaining, up 20-10: Shotgun handoff to Fournette up the middle for 2 yards.

8:38 remaining, up 20-17: Shotgun handoff to Fournette off left tackle for 1 yard.

7:19 remaining, up 20-17: Shotgun handoff to Fournette off left tackle for 1 yard.

5:53 remaining, up 20-17: Shotgun handoff to Fournette up the middle for -1 yard.

With the score close late in the game, the Jaguars became as predictable as possible with the ball in their hands. They had three drives and ran a total of eleven plays, taking up less than two minutes each time on average before handing New England back the ball. The Patriots knew the Jaguars were more concerned with the clock than actually moving the football, and they attacked downhill at the snap, shutting down a running game that had found decent success against them to that point.

If the Eagles don’t get out to a lead, they’re probably dead. And if they do get out to a lead, they need to keep their foot on New England’s throat in order to hold onto it. The RPOs may be occasionally risky, but against a defense that will sell out against the run they could also lead to big plays. They may find themselves facing more pass rush situations, and that’s only more reason to keep their defensive linemen rotating through the game.

It should be pretty obvious by now where I’m going with my pick for this game. The Eagles aren’t hopeless, but far too many things have to break right for them to pull this out. And no matter what happens in the first half of the game, the Patriots have proven that they will always find a way to be in it at the end. And in all likelihood, I don’t think it will come down to that, as I think the Patriots coast to an easy victory.

Final Prediction: New England Patriots 27 – Philadelphia Eagles 13