A Super Bowl We'll Never Forget

Well holy shit.

I’m not sure what else there is to say. I wasn’t particularly excited coming into this Super Bowl, expecting it to be a rather uninspiring game and another victory for the Patriots. Obviously, I had no idea what the hell I was talking about. Not only did the Eagles win, they did so in one of the most thrilling games in NFL history.

High scoring games get all the love, but a lot of times they can be just as sloppy as low scoring contests. That certainly wasn’t the case with this Super Bowl. There were of course a few blown coverages and a fair number of missed tackles, but there was also a lot of exceptional offensive football, players making spectacular individual efforts to keep the ball moving down the field.

Last night saw 84 points scored and 1151 yards of offense. The latter is an NFL record, not just for a Super Bowl or a postseason game but for any game. There were turnovers, fourth down conversions, clutch field goals, missed kicks, and pretty much everything except punts. I’m not going to try to jam this into a single cohesive narrative, so instead here are a few of my thoughts on what happened.

Nick Foles

Any conversation about the Super Bowl needs to start with Nick Foles. The winning quarterback is often the MVP of the game by default, winning unless he has a truly mediocre game or someone else plays spectacularly. But in this Super Bowl that was certainly not the case, as Foles was the best player on the field the entire night.

When Carson Wentz went down for the Eagles late in the season, most people gave the team up for dead. We saw both the Dolphins and the Raiders roll over in the playoffs a year ago, and by now it’s been pretty much accepted that a team’s season is over as soon as their starting quarterback gets hurt.

It’s easy to say now that we may have been hasty in dismissing Foles. After all, he’s a veteran with a lot of starting experience and a history of playing at an extremely high level for short bursts. And even though he looked atrocious the last time he was on the field, we saw this year from Case Keenum and Jared Goff how much escaping Jeff Fisher can help a quarterback.

But his performance during the regular season did little to inspire confidence, completing less than 60 percent of his passes with an average of 5.3 yards per attempt after taking over. The Eagles narrowly beat the Giants and the Raiders, then got shut out in a meaningless Week 17 game to the Cowboys. And even in a win over the Falcons in the first playoff game Foles did little to inspire confidence.

The quarterback we saw over the past two games is a completely different player. He was confident, he was bold, and he repeatedly pulled off ridiculous throws. The touchdowns to Alshon Jeffery and Corey Clement were perfect down the field throws. He dropped another touch pass over Jeffery’s shoulder later in the game, and he hit a dart up the seam on Philadelphia’s final touchdown drive to pull them into scoring range. He had one interception that wasn’t his fault, resulting only after an uncalled defensive pass interference and Jeffery’s attempt to make a one handed catch flipped the ball to the defender. Every other pass he threw was exactly where it needed to go, and the Eagles moved the ball consistently because they could count on their quarterback to make these plays.

New England’s defense isn’t good, and we knew there were going to be opportunities down the field. The Eagles hit them early, but all game I was expecting them to make a mistake. When their defense looked like they had no hope of stopping the Patriots, it seemed like it was only a matter of time before Foles missed an open receiver or held onto the ball for a costly sack. But he was flawless the entire night, and he needed to be for the Eagles to pull this one out.

Doug Pederson Stays Aggressive

Coming into the game it seemed pretty clear where each team had the edge. The Patriots have the greatest coach of all time and one of the best quarterbacks in NFL history, and the Eagles had the edge pretty much everywhere else on their roster. There was no way we could have predicted that not only would Foles outplay Brady, but Bill Belichick would also end up outcoached by Doug Pederson.

It’s no secret that NFL coaches are almost without exception far too conservative. The downside of taking a risk is much greater for their job than it is for their team, as any decision that backfires will undoubtedly be held against them. They punt when they should go for a first down, they kick extra points when they should go for two, and they very rarely manage end of the game situations properly.

Pederson has been a refreshing change of pace over the past couple seasons. The Eagles have one of the stronger analytics departments in the league (to some extent a holdover from the Chip Kelly era), and Pederson trusted those analytics when they came to him before the season and told him to be more aggressive. The Eagles went for it on fourth down more than any other team in the league this year, and they kept that up in the Super Bowl as well.

You only need to look at three crucial fourth and ones to really see the difference in this game. The first came to New England early in the second quarter, facing a fourth down on the Philadelphia eight yardline. With only a yard to go to set up a first and goal, the upside of the conversion was tremendous. But they elected to send out their field goal kicker for the sure thing, a sure thing that fell through when the holder fumbled the snap.

The Eagles faced two similar fourth down situations later in the game, and in both cases they were rewarded for making the decision the Patriots didn’t. The first turned into the play that will be replayed for decades to come, the throwback touchdown to Foles to opened the game up before halftime and kept the Patriots from pulling off their typical two-for-one scoring opportunity. In that case, going for the conversion made even more sense, since even failure would have pinned the Patriots at the goalline and likely cost them any chance of scoring before halftime.

The second situation was a much more interesting call, and one that I think very few coaches would have made. Trailing by a point and facing a fourth and one on their own 45 with six minutes remaining in the game, the Eagles kept their offense on the field and converted to keep the drive alive. That drive turned into the touchdown that ultimately won them the game, and it never would have happened if they had followed conventional wisdom.

Most coaches would have given the ball back to the Patriots, trusting their defense to stop them and get it back with enough time to go down and score. Of course, Philadelphia’s defense hadn’t stopped the Patriots yet all night, and in all likelihood a punt would have only added a couple plays to New England’s ensuing scoring drive. Philadelphia’s aggression paid off, and hopefully it will lead more teams to being aggressive in the future.

When Play Calling Gets Cute

People love to tear apart play callers for dialing up something fancy when good, old fashioned football could have worked. The Falcons should have just run the ball last year. The Seahawks should have just handed it off to Marshawn Lynch. And on fourth and goal from the one yardline, the Eagles should have just trusted their offensive line rather than dialing up some ridiculous throwback to the quarterback.

Er, scratch that last one. It worked, and so it became a brilliant play call, one that will earn Pederson credit as a football mastermind for years to come. It could just as easily have backfired, if the defense got penetration, if someone covered Foles, if the pass was missed or the catch was dropped. Oftentimes execution is the difference between a coach being “brilliant” and “too cute”, and on the biggest stage things broke Pederson’s way.

They did not break Belichick’s. Three times during the game the Patriots dialed up similarly unique play designs, and all three times they blew up in their face. The most obvious was the decision to call almost the exact same play as the Eagles earlier in the game, throwing the ball back to Brady.

It seems insane to try to throw a pass to a 40 year old quarterback, but the play design actually worked perfectly, and with a better throw and more luck on the catch it could have easily turned into a twenty yard gain. The play call was made on a third and five, and they knew from the beginning that if the pass didn’t work out they would go for it on fourth down. That they ultimately failed to convert doesn’t take away from the fact that they were in a perfect situation to try a high upside play, and they very nearly pulled it off.

I have a few more questions about their call on the play immediately preceding the failed field goal attempt. Facing a third and one, they elected to run a jet sweep to Brandin Cooks. That play didn’t make a lot of sense to me, taking the ball out of Brady’s hands while trying to outflank a speedy and aggressive defense. Of course, the play call didn’t have much to do with Cooks’ ultimate decision to ignore the ten yards of open space on either side of the defender and choose to try to go over him, but it was still strange to put him in that position to begin with.

The final perplexing moment came with a minute left in the game. The Eagles kicked off, and the entire stadium held its breath in anticipation of another potential amazing comeback for Brady. And the Patriots decided that some of their precious time was better spent trying to run a reverse to Rex Burkhead, which ultimately pinned them at the nine yardline with 58 seconds remaining an no timeouts.

Any of these plays would be easy to dismiss as blunders, but if they had worked out they would have been works of unparalleled genius. Belichick called for a pass to Tom Brady—Tom freaking Brady—in the Super Bowl. Belichick, always the master of the special team edge, pulled off a huge return on a reverse in the final minute of the Super Bowl. Being cute with a play call is just another risk, and often the only difference between a masterful call and a boneheaded mistake is the execution on the field.

What is a Catch?

It wouldn’t be an NFL game without at least one controversial play, usually involving a disputed catch. And in this game we were fortunate enough to get two, both involving Eagles touchdowns. Midway through the third quarter, Foles launched a perfect pass to running back Corey Clement that he appeared to possibly bobble before going out of bounds. And then at the very end of the game, tight end Zach Ertz lunged for the endzone after making a catch over the middle, losing the ball upon crossing the goalline and striking the ground.

Both plays were ruled touchdowns on the field, and both turned into the agonizing reviews. Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth hemmed and hawed for several minutes, before deciding in each case they were likely to be overturned and ruled incomplete. And since both passes came on third down, the Eagles would have been forced to kick two field goals rather than two touchdowns, costing them eight points that ultimately proved to be the margin of victory.

I’ve been meaning to write about this for some time, and I’ve never gotten around to it, but now seems as good a time as any. When people start complaining about the NFL’s catch rule being indecipherable, I really don’t know what they’re talking about. I’ll admit that the rule does have some gray area, but that comes from the nature of these plays themselves, and I would say that 95 percent of the time I find myself agreeing with the call that is ultimately made.

These two plays are perfect examples of people forcing themselves to complain about things that are pretty cut and dry. On the first, it looked from a couple angles like the ball moved in Clement’s hands after his left foot came off the ground, meaning he only had possession with a single foot down in bounds.

But the closer I looked at the play, the more suspect I became about the “movement” of the ball. Because while movement is often a sign of a receiver losing possession, it doesn’t work in 100 percent of cases. A ball can move in a receiver’s hands while still being fully under his control, and nothing that I saw on that play indicated that Clement did not have control of the ball. It may have shifted slightly down his chest, but his hand remained pinned against it the entire time, and it didn’t bobble at all as he hit the ground out of bounds.

The case of Ertz’s touchdown was even more cut and dry. Michaels and Collinsworth made a lot of comparisons to the Jesse James play in the game between the Steelers and the Patriots earlier this year, where the Steelers tight end made a catch at the one yardline and twisted to fall into the endzone, losing the ball when he hit the ground. That play was also ruled a touchdown on the field before being overturned on replay, and it ultimately cost the Steelers the game and the top seed in the AFC.

But when you actually look at these plays, they really don’t have much in common. Ertz made his catch at the five yardline, and he took several steps before having his legs cut out from beneath him and diving for the endzone. It’s hard to truly capture the point at which a receiver completes the “process” of the catch, but Ertz clearly had the ball long enough to fulfill those requirements. He caught the ball, tucked it away, and then extended it for the goalline, where James’s extension was part of a single motion extending the catch he made.

People continue to complain about this rule, and eventually the NFL will listen to them and will try to make some changes. And that’s not necessarily a bad thing—I would like to see them tighten the definition of the process to exclude players clearly possessing the ball long enough to extend for the goalline, so something like James’s catch would count and Ertz’s would be incontrovertible—but the truth is I’m not sure how they can find something that will work perfectly in every case. These will always be difficult decisions, especially now that we have the ability to slow them down and view them in ultra high definition. But in the vast majority of cases, I do believe that the referees get things right, including the two Eagles touchdowns in the Super Bowl.

Brady Under Pressure

The most fascinating aspect of the game came when the Patriots offense faced off against the Eagles defense. This was supposed to be the heavyweight matchup of the game, a future Hall of Fame quarterback leading a top offense against one of the best defenses in the league. Absolutely no one expected what we ultimately got, the Patriots totally shredding Philadelphia to the tune of 33 points and over 600 yards.

Over the course of his career Brady has been quietly pretty mediocre in Super Bowls, and it’s ironic that by far his best performance came in a loss. Throughout most of the second half New England was all but unstoppable, moving the ball the length of the field and into the endzone with ease. They had three straight 75 yard touchdown drives to open the half, and the Eagles looked like they had no answer.

The most interesting thing was the total lack of pressure the Eagles managed through most of the game. Their defensive line is one of the best and deepest in the league, and going against a New England team that’s struggled to keep Brady upright more this year than at any time in his career, it seemed inevitable that they would harass him into some tough situations.

With this in mind, it certainly seemed strange that Philadelphia’s defensive strategy to open the game was to blitz like crazy. The Eagles are not a team that blitzes frequently, but early on they were bringing additional rushers on nearly every play. And more often than not they were getting home, collapsing the pocket around Brady and making him uncomfortable.

The Eagles got pressure in the first half, but they did not get any sacks, and Brady often made them pay for their aggression. With defenders in his face he wasn’t able to get his customary zip and precision on the ball, but on several occasions it didn’t matter. Philadelphia’s secondary is an issue when they have seven defenders dropping into coverage, and once they started sending additional defenders into the backfield it became a straight up problem. There were receivers running wide open thirty yards down the field, and Brady was content to loft the ball up and let it fall into their arms, with the defenders too far away to make any sort of play on the pass.

The blitz wasn’t working for Philadelphia, so they backed off of it. Unfortunately, that didn’t seem to improve matters either. For most of the second half Philadelphia sent four rushers after Brady, and for most of the second half they didn’t get anywhere close to him. The Patriots double teamed Fletcher Cox on almost every play and kept backs and tight ends in to chip on the defensive ends. This negated Philadelphia’s pass rush, but it also took away the running backs as receiving options (Dion Lewis didn’t have a catch, and after setting a record with 14 in last year’s Super Bowl James White only had two this year).

This could have worked for Philadelphia, except that even dropping extra men into coverage didn’t help them on the back end. New England’s receivers got whatever they wanted running through the middle of the field, and the entire defense looked helpless and exhausted for most of the second half.

During my preview of the game I broke down five crucial matchups, the last of which was the Eagles versus time. Time was killing them in the second half, as the Patriots stacked up three straight drives that lasted a total of 25 plays. They weren’t running no huddle, but they weren’t exactly taking their time either as they marched down the field.

A couple sections above I discussed Pederson’s decision to go for it on fourth down late in the game. Not only did this decision keep his offense on the field, but it kept his defense on the bench as well. Philadelphia’s last touchdown drive took more than seven minutes on the game clock, and it gave their defense the time they needed to catch their breath.

In the end, the pass rush that was nonexistent for most of the game was what iced it for the Eagles. Not just the sack and fumble that killed Brady’s first attempt to drive down the field, but the pressure that harried him into three straight incompletions to start the last. For 57 minutes this game looked nothing like we expected it to, but at the very end a bit of sense entered the world, and Philadelphia’s defense became the unit we expected them to be all along.

2018 Super Bowl Preview

Quarterback is the most important position in the NFL, and football games are often summarized as a battle of the two starting passers. Brady versus Manning, Namath versus Unitas, Elway versus Marino. Oftentimes a team is described solely by the player they have under center, and it is not unreasonable to assume that the team with the better quarterback is going to win in the end.

This season has done a pretty good job of challenging that notion. After all, if the Super Bowl was just a contest of Tom Brady against Nick Foles, I wouldn’t even be bothering to write this preview. The Patriots have an overwhelming advantage at the most important position on the field, and they are the clear favorites in this game for that reason.

But a football game isn’t a matchup of quarterbacks. Brady and Foles won’t share the field for a single play on Sunday, and the competition they face will be at vastly different levels. The Eagles have a chance in this game because outside of the quarterback position they are better than the Patriots at almost every level of the field. And so I have gone through and selected the five most crucial matchups that will go towards deciding which of these quarterbacks ends up hoisting the Lombardi Trophy at the end of the day.

New England Offensive Interior versus Philadelphia Pass Rush

This game has been portrayed in a lot of places as a battle of a couple dominant star players versus a well rounded team, but that isn’t entirely accurate. The Eagles are certainly a more well rounded team than the Patriots, but if you look at the units as a whole their defensive line is a star on par with Brady or Rob Gronkowski.

If Philadelphia has a clear star up front it’s Fletcher Cox. There’s a reason he received more guaranteed money than any non-quarterback in NFL history, and it’s because he is a dominant force in every aspect of the game. Playing in the interior stifles his pass rush numbers and keeps him from being among the highest profile defensive players, but the way he commands double teams goes a long way towards closing down running lanes and freeing up edge rushers.

A player like Cox is exactly what a team needs to slow down New England’s offense. Pressure off the edge is obviously great, but Brady is a master at handling and eluding defensive ends. If he doesn’t get the ball out of his hand before they can arrive, he always knows how to slide forward in the pocket to keep his balance and open up a passing lane.

Pressure in his face is a different story. Brady doesn’t move very well side to side, and he isn’t going to make plays if forced out of the pocket. The Patriots have tried investing in the interior of their offensive line and have gotten mixed results, and it remains the most obvious Achilles heel of their offense. Two weeks ago Marcell Dareus demolished New England’s guards and center, harassing Brady nearly nonstop before wearing down late in the game. This same thing happened in the Super Bowl last season, when Grady Jarrett grabbed three sacks and was on his way to being named Super Bowl MVP.

In both of these cases the Patriots struggled offensively through the first half as they were beaten along the front by a menacing pass rush. Obviously that didn’t last, and I’ll have more to say on this subject later. But this is one area where the Eagles have a clear edge on the other teams that have challenged the Patriots. Not only do they have a top level star on their defensive line, they’ve surrounded him with a deep and talented stable of weapons that can constantly attack when other teams would wear down.

No Eagles reached double digit sacks this year, but that was mostly because they did their best to spread them around. Cox, Brandon Graham, Chris Long, and Derek Barnett each recorded at least five sacks , while Timmy Jernigan and Vinny Curry provided additional threats up the middle. The Eagles had seven different linemen play more than 40% of their snaps, and no player played more than Brandon Graham’s 65%. The Jaguars had only five players above the 40% mark, and three of these played more than 70%.

The Eagles have the ability to attack from a variety of players from a variety of angles, and they will stay fresh far longer than most pass rushes in the league. And they are even better against the run than they are chasing the passer, leading the league allowing only 79 yards on the ground per game.

The Patriots have had very little interest in running the ball this postseason, calling more than twice as many passes as runs through their first two games against lesser run defenses. I don’t expect them to show much interest in challenging Philadelphia on the ground either, instead focusing on quicker passes to get their receivers and running backs in space to try to take the defensive line out of the game.

Philadelphia Back Seven versus Open Space

Philadelphia’s defense was one of the best in the league this season, but it isn’t without its weaknesses. As good as the defensive line is, there are some scary holes on the back end. Their cornerbacks can be beaten by double moves, and their linebackers aren’t the same kind of space eating monsters other top defenses like Jacksonville and Minnesota boast. And, most concerning of all, they have repeatedly struggled to corral ball carriers in space over the course of the season.

This is the one matchup on either side of the ball where the Patriots have the clearest edge. The Eagles play a lot of soft coverage to avoid being beaten over the top, trusting that they can stop any team as long as they don’t give up big plays. But no team is better at moving the ball without big plays than the Patriots. Brady is a master at getting the ball out of his hands quickly and trusting his teammates to make plays after the catch, and even a couple small breakdowns will be enough to exploit Philadelphia’s defense.

The Eagles were the seventh ranked defense by DVOA against number one receivers and the top defense in the league against number two receivers, but they ranked only tenth against running backs, 17th against tight ends, and 22^nd against all other receivers. This is not a formula for success against a team that likes to spread the field around a quarterback who excels at getting the ball to every single target available to him.

Philadelphia is going to have to change the way they play defense in order to keep up with the Patriots. They’re going to need to be willing to risk big plays over the top, bringing their cornerbacks down and asking them to play tight coverage against slants and arrow routes. They are missing their best linebacker Jordan Hicks, and they are going to need Mychal Kendricks and Dannell Ellerbe to step up their games in coverage.

The Patriots are ideally suited to take on this secondary, and they won’t have to change anything about their game plan to exploit Philadelphia’s weakness. Obviously Gronkowski is going to get his share of targets, and expect both Dion Lewis and James White to rack up a lot of catches as well, both coming out of the backfield and playing receiver from the slot. If the Eagles do adjust, the Patriots have become much more aggressive this season about going downfield to Brandin Cooks and Chris Hogan, and as long as the offensive line holds up, there will be opportunities for New England to bust a few big plays.

Philadelphia Offensive Line versus New England Front Seven

The Eagles aren’t going to win this game on the arm of Foles. New England has some occasional breakdowns in their secondary, and against a top notch passer they can give up chunks of big yardage. The Eagles are clever with their scheme, and they might be able to strike a few big plays down the field like they did against the Vikings. But more likely than not they are going to do everything in their power to keep the ball on the ground.

There are a couple different ways to succeed as a running team in the NFL. The first is to rely on explosiveness. Sometimes the running back will plow into the line for no gain, but as long as you stick with it, eventually he’ll get to the second level where he can do real damage picking up yardage in big chunks. The second is with consistency, churning out three to seven yard gains play after play to slowly work your way down the field.

The Eagles very much fall into this second camp. They go three deep at running back, and all three would rather run through a tackler than run away from him. Their offensive line is one of the best run blocking units in the league, and they do an excellent job keeping the running backs clean to get up to the linebackers. Their backs don’t make a lot of people miss once they reach the secondary, but they are effective churning out consistent yardage nonetheless.

This is the perfect way to attack New England’s defense. The Patriots are a well coached and disciplined unit, but the talent on that side of the ball simply isn’t there. Having traded away Jamie Collins last year, they were entirely dependent on Dont’a Hightower in the linebacker corps, and when he went down for the season it absolutely destroyed an already weak front seven. Their safety combo of Patrick Chung and Devin McCourtey is good at cleaning up the messes that their front makes, but they usually can’t do anything until the running back has already picked up a sizeable gain.

Much as on the defensive side of the ball, the Eagles offense has a clear edge in the trenches. They will absolutely push around New England’s defensive line and linebackers, and they will give Jay Ajayi, LeGarrette Blount, and Corey Clement all the space they need to get good speed rolling into the second level. The Eagles will want to keep the ball on the ground to chew up the clock and shorten the game, keeping their defense rested so they can harass Brady whenever he’s on the field.

Obviously the Patriots will try to counter this. They will stack the box against the Eagles, and they will leave themselves exposed some on the perimeter, trusting that the relatively slow backs in Philadelphia’s backfield won’t beat them around the edge. Without Carson Wentz playing they won’t have to fear the quarterback keeper, and they can focus in on the running backs on every play.

Of course, Philadelphia will be expecting this as well, and they will have ways to counter it. And that brings us to the most intriguing matchup on the field, and the one that will go a long way towards deciding whether the Eagles are able to consistently move the football.

New England Linebackers and Safeties versus the Run-Pass Option

Over the past few years a new trend has emerged in college football, and slowly it has slunk its way into the NFL. The “Run-Pass Option”, or RPO, is a staple of just about every college scheme and a minor tweak to most NFL offenses. But more than any other team the Eagles use it as a foundational concept, and they have only relied on it more since Foles took over at quarterback.

The name of these Run-Pass Options is pretty self explanatory. On these plays the quarterback is given the option to either hand the ball off or throw it out to a wide receiver, based usually on the movement of the defense after the snap. If the defense sticks tight to the wide receivers, he’ll hand it off to the running back. If the linebackers and safeties come down hard against the run, he’ll lob it into the opening they leave for a quick, easy completion.

RPOs are nightmares to defend (and arguably unfair and against the rules, but that’s a conversation for another day). Even the typically the disciplined Patriots defense struggles against them, as we saw repeatedly in their opening night loss to Kansas City. Doug Pederson worked with Andy Reid for years, and his scheme has the same tendencies that have caused fits for New England for years.

On any given play the cornerbacks on the outside are going to stick to their receivers, and the defensive line is going to try to fight into the backfield, regardless of whether the ball is handed off or the quarterback drops back. The true strain on the defense is on the linebackers and safeties, who have to read and react as the play develops. New England’s linebackers are a major problem in this area, unathletic and unaccustomed to playing in space. Zach Ertz will undoubtedly come open several times running up the seam, and it will be on Foles to recognize and hit him.

The safeties are a slightly different story. McCourtey is obviously excellent in coverage, a former cornerback who has only gotten better since moving to safety. But the Patriots usually rely on him to stay back and protect them deep, too far to really do anything about these quick passes. Chung will bear much more of a burden, playing in a kind of hybrid linebacker/safety role that will often ask him to do multiple things on a single play. He’s gotten a lot better over the past couple years, but this is still a major ask of him.

The best option for the Patriots may be to turn to the referees. Above I mentioned that these RPOs occasionally skirt the rules, and that’s when it comes to the offensive line. On these plays linemen are told to block as if they are any other run, which often means chasing down to linebackers to seal them off expecting the back to come behind them. But if the quarterback holds onto the ball, this can often lead to linemen being two or three yards downfield when the pass is thrown, a clear penalty.

Ineligible man downfield is one of those penalties that is not called nearly as often as it should be. Officials rarely bother to watch offensive linemen, too busy monitoring for stuff like defensive holding, pass interference, and roughing the passer. But referees are also human beings, and if they spend the first half of the game hearing the greatest head coach of all time shout at them to watch the linemen downfield, they might keep a closer eye on things in the second half. One call in a crucial moment could be enough to sink an Eagles drive, and with the other issues on their offense they don't have a lot of margin of error to work with.

Philadelphia versus Time

I’m not going to sugarcoat things. This is going to be an uphill battle for the Eagles. I can see a clear path to victory for Philadelphia, if they keep the ball on the ground on offense and disrupt Brady on defense. But I can see about ten clear paths to victory for New England, as they have shown time and again to be the most resilient and adaptable team in the NFL.

Philadelphia can win with the formula I mentioned above, but the key is going to be sticking to that formula. This means that they can’t overreact to early trends in the game, calling the same plays whether they jump out to an early lead or fall behind. This sounds easier than it is, but even before the game reaches the fourth quarter teams will often allow themselves to get out of balance.

In the second quarter of games this year, when the score was within 10 points teams passed the ball on 60% of offensive plays. When a team was up by 10 or more in the second quarter, they passed the ball only 58% of the time, and when they were down by double digits, they passed the ball 64% of the time. These don’t seem like major shifts in strategy, but the fact that there are any shifts at all so early in the game are troubling. A 10 point margin in the second quarter shouldn’t affect play calling at all, yet offenses still get more aggressive when trailing or more conservative when leading.

Philadelphia cannot allow themselves to fall into this trap. Teams that get down early against the Patriots have a tendency to panic, and that sort of panic plays right into the strength of this opportunistic defense. A couple ill advised passes could lead to turnovers that turn this game into a blowout, and if the Eagles fall behind early I could see this being over by halftime.

It isn’t exactly smooth sailing for Philadelphia if they get out to a lead either, as we’ve seen from New England’s recent comeback victories over the Falcons and the Jaguars. New England’s habit of working slow, steady drives down the field with quick passes are a nightmare for defenses, as pass rushers tire far quicker than the men trying to block them. Last season the Patriots ran 93 offensive plays against Atlanta, and by the end of the game they were able to do whatever they wanted offensively. Philadelphia’s depth along the defensive front will be crucial here, but if the Patriots can execute a successful hurry up offense they can trap the Eagles with tired defenders on the field.

People talk a lot about defending with a lead, but the real trick to playing defense with a lead is not to play defense at all. Sustained drives are crucial to protecting a victory, as the Jaguars found out all too well two weeks ago. In the fourth quarter of that game the Jaguars had four first downs while they still had the lead, and here are the plays they ran:

13:37 remaining, up 20-10: Shotgun handoff to Fournette up the middle for 2 yards.

8:38 remaining, up 20-17: Shotgun handoff to Fournette off left tackle for 1 yard.

7:19 remaining, up 20-17: Shotgun handoff to Fournette off left tackle for 1 yard.

5:53 remaining, up 20-17: Shotgun handoff to Fournette up the middle for -1 yard.

With the score close late in the game, the Jaguars became as predictable as possible with the ball in their hands. They had three drives and ran a total of eleven plays, taking up less than two minutes each time on average before handing New England back the ball. The Patriots knew the Jaguars were more concerned with the clock than actually moving the football, and they attacked downhill at the snap, shutting down a running game that had found decent success against them to that point.

If the Eagles don’t get out to a lead, they’re probably dead. And if they do get out to a lead, they need to keep their foot on New England’s throat in order to hold onto it. The RPOs may be occasionally risky, but against a defense that will sell out against the run they could also lead to big plays. They may find themselves facing more pass rush situations, and that’s only more reason to keep their defensive linemen rotating through the game.

It should be pretty obvious by now where I’m going with my pick for this game. The Eagles aren’t hopeless, but far too many things have to break right for them to pull this out. And no matter what happens in the first half of the game, the Patriots have proven that they will always find a way to be in it at the end. And in all likelihood, I don’t think it will come down to that, as I think the Patriots coast to an easy victory.

Final Prediction: New England Patriots 27 – Philadelphia Eagles 13