2017 Playoff Matchups

256 games are in the book, 20 teams are eliminated, and we’re to the part of the season where it really gets interesting. A long season has done a fairly good job of separating the contenders from the rest of the field, but the rest of the way is single elimination, and the margin for error is gone.

In the NFL playoffs it isn’t always the best team that wins. There is a lot of randomness at play, from the play within the game to the matchups that evolve through the seeds. Matchups are crucial in the NFL playoff, and a top team can be taken down simply by the bad luck of playing a team designed to exploit their weaknesses.

Every team has strengths, and every team has flaws. Using these strengths and flaws we can identify which members of the field each team would have the easiest time against, and which would present them with problems. Obviously no one wants to play New England, and this is more about the styles of each team, rather than the actual quality of the playoff contenders.

AFC

New England Patriots

Favorable Matchup: Buffalo Bills

It isn’t a coincidence that the Patriots ran away from the Bills both times they played this season. Against a one dimensional unit like Buffalo’s offense, no coach in the league is more willing to sell out his principles to shut down an opponent’s strength than Bill Belichick. The Patriots front seven is not good, but it doesn’t have to be if they put nine in the box, which they’ll have no concerns about doing against Buffalo’s dreadful wide receivers.

Unfavorable Matchup: Kansas City Chiefs

It’s a little perplexing why Kansas City has been such a thorn in New England’s side these past few seasons. Andy Reid is an offensive genius, and he seems to bring his best when facing the smartest defensive mind in football. The Chiefs have the running game to exploit New England’s weak front, and Tyreek Hill presents enough of a deep threat to force the Patriots to back off. Kansas City can score points on New England, and the only question remains whether they can consistently stop the Patriots. I still have my doubts, but every time they’ve played over the past few years I have ended up surprised.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Favorable Matchup: Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars shocked the Steelers with a 30-9 victory earlier this year, but as the season has gone along that game has increasingly looked like a fluke for Pittsburgh. Ben Roethlisberger has bounced back after early season struggles that peaked with five interceptions against the Jaguars. After struggling to establish a running game against Jacksonville, Pittsburgh has rededicated themselves to running the football, and their now healthy offensive line is in better shape to handle the pass rush. The Steelers quietly generated more sacks than any other team in the league this year, and if they can keep the game closer than they did last time they will be in position to capitalize on an inevitable Blake Bortles mistake.

Unfavorable Matchup: New England Patriots

It feels like every year the Steelers look like a championship caliber team until they run into the Patriots, even though last year was the first time the Patriots ended their run since Ben Roethlisberger’s rookie year. But it remains true that New England presents an obnoxiously bad matchup for the Steelers. Their quick passing attack is designed to tear through the zone coverage that Pittsburgh adheres to almost religiously, and they know that the Steelers don’t have anyone who can handle Rob Gronkowski. The Steelers changed things up somewhat during their regular season matchup this year, and they very nearly pulled off a victory. But they will have a much more difficult task this postseason headed into Foxborough to face a team they can never seem to beat.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Favorable Matchup: Kansas City Chiefs

The easiest way to shut down Kansas City is to get pressure on Alex Smith. That’s true of pretty much any quarterback, but Smith particularly struggles when things get difficult, and the Jaguars specialize in making things difficult for a quarterback. With the combination of Calais Campbell and Yannick Ngakoue wrecking things up front while Jalen Ramsey and AJ Bouye patrol the back end, there will be very few of the easy plays that Smith relies on to move the football, and he’ll spend most of the game sprinting out of the pocket before harmlessly throwing the ball into the sideline.

Unfavorable Matchup: New England Patriots

Jacksonville’s defense plays aggressive, and they play fast, and they make life a nightmare for inexperienced quarterbacks. Unfortunately, the quarterback for the Patriots has a bit of experience, and he knows how to spend an entire game luring a defense into his trap. The Jaguars might be able to steal a play or two trying to jump a slant route, but Brady will strike back with a perfectly timed deep ball to a wide open receiver down the field. The Patriots can attack in too many ways, and as good as the Jaguars are on defense, they aren’t ready for a test like this.

Kansas City Chiefs

Favorable Matchup: Tennessee Titans

Both Kansas City and Tennessee make up for otherwise mediocre defenses by forcing turnovers. Titans safety Kevin Byard led the league in interceptions, and Chiefs cornerback Marcus Peters has finished in the top five in each of the three years he’s been in the league. The difference between these teams is at quarterback. Where Smith has been as reliable as ever with only five interceptions, Marcus Mariota has regressed sharply from his first two years, throwing a career high fifteen interceptions. These two teams are similarly built, but the Chiefs have more weapons on offense and will be in a better position to capitalize on Tennessee’s mistakes.

Unfavorable Matchup: Pittsburgh Steelers

Just as Kansas City has been a thorn in New England’s side and the Patriots have had the Steeler’s number, Pittsburgh is the one team that Kansas City never seems to be able to handle. Over the past two years Le’Veon Bell has 493 yards over three games against the Chiefs, as he uses his patient running style to batter a defense that struggles to maintain gap discipline. The Steelers also provide the sort of interior pressure that throws Smith completely off his game, and there isn’t much the Chiefs can do on either side of the ball to keep up with the Steelers.

Tennessee Titans

Favorable Matchup: Buffalo Bills

The Titans like pounding the ball up the middle, and the Bills can’t do much to stop teams that run the ball like that. Their defensive line is well past its prime, and their linebackers don’t offer much help on the interior. Tennessee’s best unit is their offensive line, and they can get nasty as they push the Bills around, keeping the ball out of Mariota’s hands and running the clock down before their defense can get exposed.

Unfavorable Matchup: Pittsburgh Steelers

Tennessee is very basic in what they want to do on both sides of the ball. On offense they want to slam the ball into the line of scrimmage, and on defense they want to pray that their secondary holds up long enough for their above average pass rush to close in. Unfortunately for them, Pittsburgh has a defensive line that excels at stuffing up the middle, and their offensive line is the best remaining in the postseason at keeping the quarterback upright. Pittsburgh is strong in every area the Titans want to attack, and Tennessee doesn’t have the talent or the coaching staff to adjust their style.

Buffalo Bills

Favorable Matchup: Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars thrive when they can get ahead and force the other team to throw the ball into the teeth of their defense. But the Bills play a very similar style, and they have the sort of confusing misdirection running game that can wreak havoc with an athletic but still mistake prone defense. If the Bills can keep from falling behind, they can move the ball on the ground against the Jaguars, and they only need one or two key plays from Micah Hyde or Tre’Davious White to capitalize on a mistake prone opposing quarterback.

Unfavorable Matchup: Kansas City Chiefs

Buffalo’s defense thrives on creating turnovers in the back end, and no one avoids generating these turnovers like Smith. If you can’t get pressure on him, he is perfectly capable of waiting for someone to come open, and even against this impressive Bills secondary someone will eventually come open. They have no pass rush, and since trading away Marcell Dareus they cannot stop the run. The Chiefs will have no trouble gashing their way up the field through checkdowns and handoffs, and this game could quickly get out of hand.

NFC

Philadelphia Eagles

Favorable Matchup: Carolina Panthers

Philadelphia is dominant against the run, but they have holes on the back end that a competent passing game can exploit. Fortunately, Carolina does not have a competent passing game. Their receiving corps doesn’t have the ability to take the top off of Philadelphia’s defense, and their pass protection will be torn to pieces by the Eagles pass rush. The lack of a similar pass rush for the Panthers will give Nick Foles room to breathe, and when he’s not under pressure he is a perfectly capable quarterback.

Unfavorable Matchup: Los Angeles Rams

It’s hard to understate how much different a team the Eagles are with Foles under center. Wentz is one of the more dangerous athletes in the league, while Foles is an absolute statue in the pocket, incapable of making any moves to open up passing lanes. Foles folds under pressure in his face, and there is no one in the league better at generating interior pressure than Aaron Donald. With Donald wrecking things in the middle, the Eagles won’t be able to do anything on offense, and even their vaunted defense can only slow the Rams down so much.

Minnesota Vikings

Favorable Matchup: Los Angeles Rams

Somehow over the course of the season, despite an unproven offensive line and a third string quarterback, the Vikings became a team that wins games by throwing the ball. Their receiving corps is the best in the NFC playoffs, and they are perfectly set up to exploit Los Angeles’s thin secondary. They’re also the only team that managed to shut the Rams offense down earlier this year, stuffing Todd Gurley and challenging the receivers to take away the easy plays for Jared Goff.

Unfavorable Matchup: New Orleans Saints

The Vikings dominated the Saints during the opening weekend of the regular season, but a lot has changed since then. The Vikings are down to Case Keenum at quarterback, and the Saints have patched up a lot of the holes in their defense. Keenum struggles going through his progressions, and if Marshon Lattimore can shut Adam Thielen down they could force a few ill advised throws. They are also one of the few teams with the depth and athleticism to cause real problems for Minnesota’s defense.

Los Angeles Rams

Favorable Matchup: Atlanta Falcons

There are few offenses in the league as beautiful as the one Sean McVay brought to Los Angeles this year. Several times a game he will whip out a play that almost seems impossible to defend, merging fakes and route combinations that require a defense to be almost perfect in its reads and reactions. The Falcons are improving on defense, but they’re still very young on that side of the ball, and young players can get easily confused against an offense like the Rams. Atlanta will need an almost perfect performance from their inexperienced linebackers and safeties, and that consistency isn’t something they can rely on.

Unfavorable Matchup: Carolina Panthers

The Panthers are almost the exact opposite of the Falcons on defense. Where the Falcons are raw and athletic in the middle, the Panthers are loaded with veterans like Luke Keuchly and Thomas Davis. These two have the ability to matchup against any of Los Angeles’s deep stable of weapons, and they won’t easily be fooled by play action or coverage breaking routes. Meanwhile, Carolina’s varied rushing attack could cause problems in Los Angeles’s own athletic but undisciplined linebacker corps.

New Orleans Saints

Favorable Matchup: Philadelphia Eagles

The Saints have one of the best pass defenses in the NFL, and facing a quarterback like Foles they will have nothing to worry about in the passing game. Lattimore can shut down any receiver the Eagles line up across from him, and Cameron Jordan can track down Foles in the pocket. Philadelphia’s defense has been fantastic this year, but they haven’t faced a quarterback like Drew Brees, and they’ve been vulnerable to mixups in the secondary down the stretch.

Unfavorable Matchup: Atlanta Falcons

New Orleans has radically shifted their offense this year, and the team has benefited because of it. Brees is still lethally effective attacking down the field, but he has spent a lot more time exploiting the middle of the field with versatile threats like Alvin Kamara. Very few teams in the league have the size and speed necessary to both stuff Kamara in the running game and track him as a receiver. Unfortunately, their division rival Atlanta is one such team, with a cadre of young talent that will present problems for New Orleans for years down the road.

Carolina Panthers

Favorable Matchup: New Orleans Saints

Carolina can’t pass the ball, but at least against the Saints they won’t have to pretend to try. Their running game has picked up as the season has gone along, and with the trio of Cam Newton, Jonathan Stewart, and Christian McCaffrey they can attack the mediocre Saints run defense from a multitude of angles. Keeping up with the Saints offense will tough, but as long as they can limit the big plays in the back end they can find a few crucial stops.

Unfavorable Matchup: Minnesota Vikings

A few weeks ago the Panthers managed to beat the Vikings thanks to a pair of long runs from Newton and Stewart. Those big plays were major deciding factors in the game, but they were also out of character for both of these teams. In a repeat matchup these long runs wouldn’t likely recur, and outside of these plays the Vikings shut the Panthers down. Their physical cornerbacks and their dominant defensive line will push the Panthers around, and it will be a struggle for Carolina to even reach 10 points.

Atlanta Falcons

Favorable Matchup: Philadelphia Eagles

Julio Jones is a physical matchup problem for anyone he faces, and it will be a particular issue for Philadelphia’s defense. The Eagles front seven is as good as any in the league, but there are still holes in their secondary, and if the Falcons can keep Matt Ryan upright he will be able to find receivers open down the field. Even if the pass rush picks up, Ryan has the skills and intelligence to get the ball out of his hands to his playmaking running backs to slow down the up the field pressure.

Unfavorable Matchup: Minnesota Vikings

Jones is a matchup problem, but one player who has always given him trouble is Xavier Rhodes. Rhodes is the perfectly designed cornerback to cause problems for Jones. He is big, physical, and fast, and his ability to disrupt Jones causes problems with Atlanta’s offense. On the other side, the Falcons don’t have the depth in the secondary to slow down both Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs, and they don’t have the pass rush to hassle Minnesota’s occasionally vulnerable offensive line.