It
is the end of October, which means we are now halfway through the NFL season.
Roughly half the teams have already played eight games, and the other half will
hit that mark this coming weekend. So, as I always do, I’m going to use this
midseason point to run through each and every team.
As
I’ve done in the past, I am going to separate the league into tiers. I’ll start
today with the bottom half of the league, starting with high quality teams that
have been virtually eliminated due to some bad luck and working my way down to
the true garbage of the league. As always, I really didn’t put any thought into
the order of the teams within each tier, so don’t try to think of this as any
sort of actual “power rankings”.
Maybe Next Year
These
teams aren’t going to make the playoffs. They aren’t bad teams by any means,
but rough starts to the year have basically eliminated them from competition.
But they still have the talent to put up fights down the stretch, to play
spoiler and to build momentum heading into 2018.
Oakland Raiders (3-5)
Oakland
made the playoffs last year with a 12-4 record, and many expected this season
to be the next step in their turnaround. Derek Carr was a year older and
(hopefully) not going to suffer an injury at the most inopportune moment of the
year. Their defense had another season of working together, and Amari Cooper
was ready to emerge as a top ten wide receiver.
Eight
games into the season, and none of this has happened. The Raiders sit at 3-5,
in last place in their division and three games behind their rivals in Kansas
City. The defense has fallen to pieces again, Cooper can’t catch a pass to save
his life, and Carr looks nothing like the MVP candidate he was a year ago.
Things
are grim for the Raiders this year, but I still think this is a team with a
bright future. We like to believe that progress is linear, but
it often happens in fits and starts, with every forward step followed by a
smaller step back. Oakland was not as good as their record indicated last year,
and they’re not as bad as their record indicates this year. They still have a
lot of young talent, both on defense and on offense, and it will come together
at some point. It’s just starting to look like it won’t be in 2017.
Los Angeles Chargers (3-5)
The
Chargers are the mainstay of this tier, whether they’re playing in San Diego
and Los Angeles. It’s actually hard to put them here again, since it seems
futile to look forward to next year when the same thing keeps happening over
and over. On paper the Chargers have one of the best rosters in the league, and
quite often it shows up on the field as well, only to fall to pieces in a
heartbreaking way in the final minutes.
I
still believe the preponderance of statistical evidence that suggests there is
no such thing as being “clutch” (or in the case of the Chargers, “un-clutch”).
I am not concerned that the pattern will repeat a year from now. I am concerned
that Philip Rivers may very well be reaching the end of his career. He has been
more inconsistent this year than at any time in the past, limiting his
supporting cast instead of being limited by them. The Chargers have a lot going
for them on both sides of the ball, with a deep group of receivers and the best
young pass rush duo in the league. But if their quarterback continues to trend
downhill, they may be trending down rather than up.
Green Bay Packers (4-3)
It
is staggering just how much one player can mean to an NFL team. With Aaron
Rodgers, the Packers would likely be the favorites in the NFC. Without him,
they will be lucky to make the playoffs. The extent of his injury remains
uncertain, and it’s possible they could keep themselves afloat until he comes
back as they did in 2013. But this team is not nearly as talented as that one
was, and if Brett Hundley’s first two games of action are any indication, the
Packers will be lucky to win three more games the rest of the way.
This
team has been quietly mismanaged for years, and now that the Rodgers band-aid
is gone we’re seeing just how bad the bleeding is. They have whiffed on several
major draft picks and made no attempt to add pieces in free agency. They let
the interior of their offensive line walk away to join division rivals. And
they continue to rely on a coaching staff that has bumbled their way through
handling one of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history. If there’s any
consolation in this, a true collapse might be the push the Packers need to
ditch Ted Thompson and Mike McCarthy, to try to salvage something before
they’re stuck facing life after Rodgers.
Let’s Just Forget These Teams Exist
Unlike
the tier above, these teams really don’t any reason to feel positive about
their seasons. They don’t show a lot of potential, and they can’t even hope to
luck their way into a playoff spot. But they aren’t bad enough to compete for
the first overall selection, so there’s really no reason to pay attention to
these teams over the second half of the year.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-5)
This
was supposed to be the year that Tampa Bay broke out. Just like last year was,
and the year before that. Like the Chargers, the Buccaneers are a team that
always seems to fall short of the general public’s expectations. Unlike the
Chargers, I never really bought into it myself. The dismal performance of Tampa
Bay’s offense and the lack of growth from Jameis Winston is certainly
troubling, and it does raise some concerns about their long term potential. But
those concerns merely supplement the ones I had already, the ones that look
even more real halfway through this season.
Tampa
Bay has struggled to put together a defense for years. The star power has been
there with Gerald McCoy and Lavonte David, but as David has regressed over the
past couple years they haven’t been able to fill out the depth. There was some
reason to be hopeful coming into the year with second year players Vernon
Hargreaves and Noah Spence coming off solid rookie seasons, but neither has lived
up to expectations. Spence has only one sack after 5.5 a year ago, and
Hargreaves has been burned repeatedly on the back end. The story in Tampa Bay
is exactly the same as it has been for several years now, and I don’t know why
we ever expected it to be any different.
Chicago Bears (3-5)
All
the attention has gone to Mitch Trubisky this year, which has allowed the steps
taken by this defense to fly under the radar. After several dismal seasons, the
Bears defense is back, and they have already won a couple games on that side of
the ball alone. The strength is in the front seven, which makes up for its lack
of name recognition with sheer competence and remarkable depth. They are
controlling games on the ground while also registering top ten production in
sacks, and on a unit with a good mix of young talent and veteran support they
are going to keep producing.
But
what about the offense? That’s where things get a little grim. The strength of
this unit was supposed to be on the ground, but Jordan Howard has taken a step
back after a stellar rookie season. Despite receiving 3.5 more carries per game
he is averaging fewer total yards, and he offers virtually nothing in the
passing game. The receivers are a disaster, and the offensive line has been
disappointing, but the real questions are about second overall pick Trubisky.
He has been up and down since taking over the starting role, but more down than
anything else, as the offense has remained extremely limited with him under
center. There’s potential here, but this offense isn’t living up to it right
now.
Denver Broncos (3-4)
An
explosive start from Denver’s defense and competent quarterback play from
Trevor Siemian brought a few flickers of excitement to the early part of the season,
but three straight noncompetitive losses have shown the Broncos for what they
really are. This defense is still extremely good, but no defense is good enough
to carry an offense that simply cannot score, and that is where Denver is at
right now.
After
their Monday night loss to the Chiefs they have made the decision that
it is time to change quarterbacks, though I can't see how things will be
any different now. We saw Brock Osweiler a year ago in Houston,
when he was demonstrably worse than Siemian has been this year. We saw
Paxton
Lynch in college, in preseason, and in a handful of games last year. He
wasn’t
better than Siemian then, and there is no reason to believe he is now.
Siemian
is the best quarterback on Denver’s roster, and the best simply isn’t
good
enough.
Detroit
is another team that got off to a strong start, but like the Broncos they have
suffered three consecutive defeats to get them back into the mire where they
belong. Occasional moments of brilliance from Matthew Stafford aside, this team
offers very little to get excited about, and both their ceiling and their floor
are sharply defined by the bland talent that dots their roster.
The
nicest thing that can be said about Detroit is that there are no glaring
weaknesses on their team. The problem is that there aren’t any clear strengths
either. Their top two wide receivers are both good secondary options who
struggle to carry a full load. Their quarterback has rid himself of the
mistakes that used to plague him at the expense of the big plays that made him
dangerous. Their defense isn’t the mess it’s been over the past few years, but
it is at best an average unit. Detroit will win some more games, but they will
likely lose just as many, and at the end of the year they’ll be sitting a couple
games away from both the playoffs and a top draft pick.
After
four straight playoff appearances, the Bengals took a step back a year ago,
finishing 6-9-1 and ending up with a top ten draft pick. After years of
stagnation this was not the change Bengals fans were looking for, and the
pressure really ramped up heading into this season. Seven games in, it’s become clear that
last season was not an aberration, and that this team is not at the level to
compete with the best of the AFC.
The
question becomes what, if anything, they will do this offseason to change
things. Firing Marvin Lewis seems like the obvious call, but it’s been the
obvious call in the past and the ownership hasn’t pulled the trigger yet. And
even if he goes, the real problem remains: what to do with Andy Dalton. Cutting
him prior to next year will save nearly $14 million from the salary cap, and it
will give them the opportunity to start fresh, either with the much cheaper AJ
McCarron or with someone acquired through the draft. I can’t imagine this will
happen, but it would be the right decision to make for a team that needs to
find some way to take a step forward.
Arizona Cardinals (3-4)
For
several years now Arizona has been a high upside team, but also a very fragile
one. Two seasons ago we saw the upside, with a division title and a trip to the
NFC Championship Game. This year we’ve seen the opposite side of the coin, as
injuries and age have decimated their once deadly offensive and defensive
balance. David Johnson and Carson Palmer are both out for the foreseeable
future, and they are left with very little to work with on offense with a coach
who has proven over and over his unwillingness to adapt his aggressive style.
The
bigger problem though is on the defensive side. A dominant unit just a couple
years ago, this defense has regressed harshly as the supporting pieces have
fled. Stars like Patrick Peterson and Tyrann Mathieu are still manning the back
end, but without players like Tony Jefferson and Kevin Minter they are stuck
with replacement level fill-ins. And now that he is dominating in Jacksonville,
we are realizing just how vital Calais Campbell was to this defense, in a role they haven't come close to finding a replacement to fill.
Washington Redskins (3-4)
I
don’t know if I have ever seen a more balanced roster than Washington’s. During
the draft it was difficult to figure out what position to target, because I
couldn’t find a place that was clearly lacking on the team. The closest I could
come was defensive line, and they added the best interior lineman in the draft
in Jonathan Allen. Allen is now out for the season, but the fact remains that
this is a team with very few gaping holes.
Balance
is nice, but it is also crucial to have some strengths to rely on. A year ago
it was their receiving corps, DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon bailing Kirk
Cousins out over and over. But both of these receivers left in free agency, and
replacements Terrelle Pryor and Josh Doctson have been major disappointments.
The only real strength left for this team was along the offensive line, and
with that unit decimated by injuries there is no part of this team that could
reasonably be called “above average”.
Oh The Humanity
These
teams are awful, to the extent that their incompetence can at least be amusing.
They have no hope of making the postseason, and they should probably just shut
down their seasons right now. But there is still the matter of the draft order
to attend to, and the teams in this tier will be scrapping for that prize over
the second half of the season.
Cleveland Browns (0-8)
I
expected better from Cleveland this year, because I am an idiot. The Browns
aren’t as bad as their record indicates, but they are pretty damn close, and
they have been trending steadily down since the beginning of the season. Their
defense is poorly coached and devoid of talent when Myles Garrett isn’t on the
field. Their offense has been torn down by injuries from the outside in, and they are now
missing their best player Joe Thomas. Everything that could have gone wrong for
Cleveland has gone wrong, and it is likely only going to get worse.
I’ve
been critical of the Browns for turning over coaches too frequently in the past,
but barring a late season turnaround I can’t see how they justify bringing Hue
Jackson back. He has consistently put Deshone Kizer in a position to fail and
then attacked him for failing, benching him twice only to switch back a game
later. Gregg Williams has left glaring holes at every level of his defense, and
hiring him after repeated failures at each of his past several stops should
only drag Jackson down further. There may or may not have been hope here at the
beginning of the season, but whatever once existed is certainly gone now.
San Francisco 49ers (0-8)
San
Francisco is bad, but they aren’t as bad as their record indicates. The past
two weeks have been noncompetitive, but before that they were in almost every
game. They lost by three to the Seahawks, by two to the Rams and the Redskins,
and in overtime against the Cardinals and the Colts. They’ve received
contributions from veterans like Pierre Garcon, and more importantly they have
seen incredible play from recent first round picks DeForest Buckner and Reuben Foster.
The
acquisition of Jimmy Garoppolo is interesting. I’m not high on Garoppolo, and I
think they overpaid in giving up a high second round pick for him. But I think
that this could be the best situation for him to end up in. He’ll have some
time to adjust to a starting role while they build the team around him, and
Kyle Shanahan has gotten the most out of pretty much every quarterback he’s
worked with. They will likely have to pay too much money again to extend
Garoppolo this offseason, but at least they will have several games to see him
on tape and in practice, to decide if he’s worth the investment before free
agency arrives.
Miami Dolphins (4-3)
It
still shocks me every time I look at the standings and see that this team has a
winning record. It shocked me a year ago when they went 10-6, and it shocks me
now at 4-3. Fortunately, I don’t think that is going to last much longer. This
team has won four games despite having a bottom five point differential, so bad
that they were negative even before losing 40-0 to the Ravens.
There
are some bright spots on this defense, but they are being overwhelmed by the
sheer incompetence of the offense. The unit that was supposed to be the
strength of the team has failed them over and over, and as Matt Moore proved
last week this isn’t just due to the quarterback they pulled out of the
broadcast booth. The skill talent on this offense is not nearly what it was
cracked up to be, and the offensive line is somehow even more disappointing.
There’s very little reason to expect them to turn things around this year, and
the performances of their recent draft picks give little hope for the future.
New York Giants (1-6)
Coming
into the season the only reason to watch this team was Odell Beckham. Now,
there really isn’t any reason at all. The Giants trot out one of the most
uninspiring teams in the league, a mediocre quarterback behind a bad offensive
line throwing to anonymous wide receivers. Their defense has regressed after a
remarkable performance a year ago, and it isn’t going to get much better with
Janoris Jenkins suspended by the team for reasons that remain unclear.
Even
a few bright points like Landon Collins and Evan Engram aren’t enough to
salvage a truly wretched season. The Giants have a difficult schedule down the
stretch, and it’s hard to see them winning more than three of their remaining
nine games. The longer this goes, the hotter the seat becomes for Ben McAdoo,
and at this point I’d give him less than a 50 percent chance of being back next
year.
New York Jets (3-5)
The
fact that I didn’t have to create a tier just for the Jets is a win in and of
itself. I expected this team to be not just the worst in the league but the
worst I’ve ever seen, and I never expected them to even sniff three wins. And
though three straight losses have put things at least close to right, I do have
to give the Jets credit for being competitive in each and every one of those
games. This is a real NFL football team, which I never saw coming prior to the
season.
This
sounds like faint praise, but I’m actually feeling pretty positive about the
Jets going forward. The decent performance of Josh McCown is mostly
meaningless, but the emergence of Jermaine Kearse and Robbie Anderson as
capable NFL receivers is not. This team still lacks star power, but they have
the depth in place to construct a really good team with a few high draft picks.
All of this should buy another year for Todd Bowles, who was
seen by most as a dead man walking coming into the year.
Indianapolis Colts (2-6)
The
more time passes, the more impressed I am with the accomplishments of Peyton
Manning. We’ve known for years that some organizations are simply toxic from
the top down—the Browns, 49ers, Redskins, and Jets are the first that come to
mind—and only now are we getting the sense of how dysfunctional the Colts are.
They somehow ended up with the surest draft prospect in the past fifteen years
at the most important position, he became a superstar, and they are still on
their way to a bottom of the league finish.
The
Luck injury may or may not be in their control, but the way they’ve managed it
certainly is. The entire team has been left hanging in limbo week after week,
unsure whether they will have any chance of competing. All the while the roster
has revealed itself to be one of the most poorly constructed in the league, as
even a decent season from Jacoby Brissett has gotten them nothing. This team is
falling to pieces before our eyes, and I’m not sure if there will even be
anything to salvage when Luck is back in 2018. Right now I think there's a decent chance that he ends up wasting his career
away for a franchise that has no hope of ever winning anything without literally
the greatest quarterback in NFL history.
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