The Hidden Matchups of the Super Bowl

As you may or may not have heard, there’s a football game on Sunday. A pretty big one, in fact. After 266 games, we’re down to two teams remaining. The New England Patriots surprised no one by making it here, a record ninth Super Bowl appearance for the franchise and their seventh in the past seventeen years. On the other side, the Falcons came largely out of nowhere, one of the perennial disappointing franchises in the league making only their second Super Bowl appearance, still in search of their first victory.

By now the internet is awash in Super Bowl previews, and you can read about this game from just about any perspective you see fit. These are two incredibly deep and talented football teams, and there are any number of angles we could take to look at this. So with no real hope of originality, I’ve decided to break this game down into individual matchups I find particularly interesting, facets of the game that will go a long way to deciding who ends the year able to call themselves the champions.

Deion Jones/Keanu Neal/De’Vondre Campbell vs the Middle of the Field

Atlanta has gone through an interesting few years. It seems long ago, but it’s only been four years since they finished with the best record in the NFC and were one Harry Douglas stumble away from a trip to the Super Bowl. Atlanta was one of the brightest young teams in the league just a few short years ago, before they suffered an stunning collapse and proceeded to miss out on the playoffs the next three seasons.

In retrospect the story of what happened to them seems fairly obvious. Atlanta was the classic example of the big splash team, a franchise that thought they could ride their way to the top on the back of superstars. The most notable (and most successful) example was the trade for Julio Jones that saw them surrender five draft picks, two of them first rounders. This came three years after they jumped back into the first round to grab Sam Baker, a move that didn’t work out quite as well.

No one will call the decision to grab Jones a mistake, but it played a major role in their collapse. Atlanta was done in by a lack of depth, exacerbated by the presence of backsliding veterans like Michael Turner, Tony Gonzalez, and Roddy White.

The explosion of the offense has received deserved credit for Atlanta’s success this year, but their improvement on defense has played a major role as well. They still aren’t good on this side of the ball, but for the first time in years they have a unit of capable NFL starters, thanks in large part to the trio of rookies operating in the middle of the field.

Jones, Neal, and Campbell are still extremely raw as players, but their sheer athleticism has been enough to make them a threat to opposing offenses. With tremendous length and speed, they can quickly recover from the mistakes they make to close passing windows and running lanes. The three have combined for four interceptions, seven forced fumbles, two touchdowns, and 27 passes defensed.

Pure athleticism has served them well so far, but they’ll be facing a new challenge this weekend. No one in the league is better at finding holes over the middle of the field than Tom Brady, and few receiving corps excel at exploiting these gaps like New England’s. They tore apart a similarly young and athletic Steelers defense a week ago, and this is one area where they will have a decisive edge.

The key for Atlanta is going to have to be unpredictability. Two weeks ago Pittsburgh tried to drop back into a safe zone, to trust Ryan Shazier and Sean Davis to flow in space and close off any openings. It didn’t work. Brady is too smart and too accurate, and there are going to be holes in the defense.

New England’s first playoff foe showed what you have to do to handle this attack. Houston played with reckless abandon against the Patriots, matching their receivers tight from sideline to sideline and letting their linebackers flow with their instincts to make plays on the ball. This opened up opportunities for the offense, but it also unsettled Brady in a way we very rarely see. He threw two interceptions against the Texans and probably could have thrown three or four more, as defenders consistently undercut his routes and beat receivers at the point of the catch.

Atlanta has a lot of young talent on the defensive side of the ball, and they have to let that talent do their thing. If they try to out-discipline the Patriots, they are going to get run off the field. But if they play with speed and aggression, they might be able to force a couple of key mistakes.

Ra’Shede Hageman vs New England’s Interior

 

Vic Beasley is Atlanta’s best healthy defensive player, and he will have a major impact on this game. New England’s offensive line is solid but nothing special, and Beasley’s athleticism and explosiveness will pose a problem on the edge. But he alone is not enough to knock Brady off his game, and he’ll need the other members of the defensive front to step up and help him.

We went through this exact same conversation two weeks ago prior to the game against the Packers. Beasley is great, but he couldn’t beat Aaron Rodgers on his own. And on that day, he didn’t have to.

Green Bay has a much better line than New England, and the Falcons tore it to shreds. Beasley did his share, but the real star of the NFC Championship Game was third year defensive tackle Ra’Shede Hageman. After an up and down start to his career, Hagemen exploded when his team needed him the most. He registered three tackles for a loss including a sack, and he was essentially unblockable going against one of the league’s best offensive lines.

We always knew Hageman had this potential. He is absolutely massive, standing 6-6 and weighing 310 pounds, and he complements this with remarkable athleticism, registering a 5.02 forty yard dash and an absurd 35.5 inch vertical leap at the combine. At times his college tape showed off this otherworldly athleticism with moments of dominance that made him look like a professional playing against a bunch of high schoolers.

But he was always inconsistent, and his attitude rubbed people the wrong way, which is how a first round talent fell to the Falcons in the second round. Inconsistent was also the word most commonly used to describe him during his first few years in the league, and it has to be sending a major chill through the spine of Falcons fans after they saw how valuable he can be a couple weeks ago.

Interior pressure is always the most devastating type of pressure, and this is truer for Brady than it is for any other quarterback. He does not handle the pocket collapsing in his face very well, and he usually surrenders himself to a sack when he sees a defender coming at him. The Texans did a fine job of this as well thanks to the explosiveness of Whitney Mercilus and Jadeveon Clowney attacking from the inside.

Hageman is one of the few players who brings that same sort of strength and explosiveness. The question is, will he? New England will play games to try to keep him from getting into a rhythm, attacking him from unexpected angles to frustrate him and slow down his devastating first step. Because if Hageman gets going, they can’t afford to leave him matched up one on one against their vulnerable interior. And every blocker they send his way is one fewer between their quarterback and Beasley.

Atlanta’s other receivers vs New England’s secondary

Everybody knows about Julio Jones. He’s been one of the three best receivers in the league for several years now, and he’s coming off one of the best performances of his career in the NFC Championship Game against the Packers. He is a physical freak of nature, with ridiculous speed, terrifying size, and body control that seems to defy the laws of physics. He is the best player who will be on the field on Sunday, and he is going to be the focal point for both teams whenever Atlanta has the ball.

But just as on the defensive side of the ball, the difference in Atlanta’s offense this year is its depth. They made good moves in free agency bringing in Alex Mack and Mohamed Sanu, and they stumbled into a gem when the Browns released Taylor Gabriel. They have a lot more talent to work with on offense this year, and the primary beneficiary has been Matt Ryan.

No one spread the ball around this year like Atlanta did. They had fifteen different players register at least one reception this year, thirteen of whom found the endzone. That latter is an NFL record, and it is a major part of why the Falcons led the league in scoring. There simply isn’t a way to take away every single option they have out on routes.

Compare this to the opponent New England faced two weeks ago. Pittsburgh’s offense relied heavily on two star players, one of whom was lost to an injury early in the game. With no other serious threats, the Patriots were able to turn all of their attention towards Antonio Brown, limiting him to a mere 77 yards through the air.

Julio Jones is maybe the only other receiver in the league on Brown’s level, and you could definitely see the Patriots using a similar scheme to stop him. But that isn’t nearly as easy against Sanu and Gabriel as it is against Sammie Coates and Cobi Hamilton. Atlanta has genuine number two options, more than just about any other team in the league.

If the Patriots dedicated themselves to it, they could probably take Jones out of the game just as they did Brown. And I can definitely see them starting things off that way. They could put Malcolm Butler on top of him and leave a safety over the top, trusting Eric Rowe and Logan Ryan to keep up with the other threats. Or they could hedge their bets by putting Butler on Sanu while still double covering Jones, their normal strategy for facing top flight receivers.

But even if this works, Atlanta still has weapons beyond their receiving corps. They do an excellent job scheming their tight ends and fullbacks into open opportunities. And they have the best one-two punch of running backs in the league, a pair of excellent runners who also double as dangerous receiving threats.

New England’s defense is deep and flexible, and they might have the talent to chase Atlanta’s varied attack across the field. Though I’d feel a little more confident if they hadn’t traded away Jamie Collins, an excellent coverage linebacker whose absence will loom large if Atlanta starts exploiting the underneath parts of the field in the passing game.

Alan Branch vs Davonta Freeman/Tevin Coleman

The story of the AFC Championship Game starts with the groin injury that took Le’Veon Bell off the field after only eleven plays. De’Angelo Williams is a very good backup running back, but Bell is the best back in the league, and the dropoff was evident on every play. The Steelers got absolutely nothing on the ground, and with Brown locked up on the outside there wasn’t much their offense could do.

The absence of Bell certainly played a major role, but it wasn’t the whole story. Bell wasn’t exactly tearing it up in his time on the field, registering only 20 yards on his six carries. And the problems in Pittsburgh’s running game had far more to do with their offensive line than with the player carrying the ball behind it.

The Steelers have one of the best offensive lines in the league, and the Patriots tore it to shreds, led largely by the effort of Alan Branch. The mammoth defensive tackle is one of the more unheralded players on this defense, but two weekends ago he was the best player for them on the field. He stacked up against their double teams, and he pushed into the backfield to disrupt Pittsburgh’s slow developing running plays.

Branch isn’t an every snap player. He played only 59% of New England’s snaps this season, and while this was still good for second on the team among defensive linemen, it shows that the Patriots know he isn’t much of a pass rushing threat. His career high in sacks was 3 in 2011, and he managed only 1.5 this year with the Patriots.

Branch is on the field to stop the run, which is where Atlanta poses a particular challenge. While they don’t have a back on the same level as Bell, their top two are as good as any pair in the league. Both can carry the ball in between the tackles and out around the edges, and they have excellent vision that makes them lethal in Atlanta’s zone heavy blocking scheme.

The Patriots are capable of stuffing up this running game with the help of Branch. But the real problem will be keeping him on the field. Both Freeman and Coleman are excellent in the passing game, particularly Coleman, who can line up on the outside and run routes as well as most receivers. The Falcons can line these players up anywhere on the field, and they can attack in a wide variety of ways with every personnel group.

This poses a problem for a player like Branch. Defenses set their personnel based on what they see from the offense, and for simpler teams they can usually play strength against strength. Against a more limited runner like Williams, Branch was able to stay on the field as a run defender and leave whenever Pittsburgh put out a wide receiver heavy grouping.

Atlanta is too flexible for this kind of scheming to work. Their running backs can play wide receiver if they need, and this allows them to spread the field if they see New England in a run heavy defense. If they take Branch off the field, the Falcons don’t need to substitute. They can just move their running back into the backfield and attack the suddenly vulnerable heart of the Patriots defense.

There are all sorts of creative ways that Atlanta can use this advantage. Theoretically they could put out a lineup with both running backs, a tight end, a fullback, and Julio Jones. This is a dangerous running threat, forcing the Patriots to take their best pass rushers off the field. Once this happens, Atlanta can spread Jones and the tight end wide with their running backs in the slot, giving them four dangerous receivers while still keeping their fullback in to protect against the weakened pass rush.

Both Atlanta’s offense and New England’s defense are incredibly versatile, and whoever can use this edge will have a major leg up in this game. Which brings us to our final matchup.

Kyle Shanahan vs Bill Belichick

 

Call me a nerd (and you wouldn’t be the first to do so), but this is the matchup I’m most excited to see in this game. The best head coach in the league is matching up with the best offensive coordinator, leading units stocked with depth and talent in a clash for the championship trophy.

There isn’t much more that we can say about Belichick. He has cemented himself as the greatest head coach in NFL history, leading his team to a now record seventh Super Bowl game. With four victories already under his belt, he has a chance to break away from Chuck Noll to hold the record on his own.

The way he has found success says a lot, because he’s found success every way imaginable. His first three appearances came with an elite defense carrying an efficient but unspectacular offense. Then he became aggressive, bringing in Randy Moss and Wes Welker and unleashing Tom Brady into one of the greatest offensive seasons in NFL history. The defense fell apart, but he kept rolling, as he tuned back the aggressive passing attack into a quick hitting style that wore defenses down with a thousand dagger cuts.

This is maybe the most balanced team Belichick has ever fielded. The offense has opened things up from what they were a couple years ago, and they’ve developed a functional running game to take the pressure off their quarterback. Their defenses is middle of the pack, but they have no glaring holes. They don’t have a superstar in the mold of a Richard Seymour or a Rodney Harrison, but their depth allows them to mold themselves to attack any offense.

This will be particularly important in the Super Bowl, as they will find themselves facing probably the most creative offensive scheme in the league. Kyle Shanahan has been a quietly impressive offensive coordinator for years, making the most out of bad situations in Houston, Washington, and Cleveland. But over the past two years in Atlanta he has found talent to match his brilliance, and he has grown into an elite offensive mind.

I discussed personnel usage above, and while that still leaves plenty to say about his play calling strategies, I want to focus more on play design. Shanahan is very much a disciple of his father Mike, the two time Super Bowl winning coach of the Broncos. Mike revolutionized the league with his innovative zone rushing attack, and he revitalized John Elway’s career with passing plays that utilize many of the same strategies Kyle has expanded on to construct Atlanta’s potent attack.

The key to the Falcons offense is misdirection. Their offensive players spend a great deal of time moving side to side, on fakes and on routes that work together to shift the defense slightly out of position and open running lanes and passing windows. On any given play Atlanta can run play action to the left, boot the quarterback to the right, send receivers streaking across the field to follow the passer, then throw it back to a single receiver working back against the grain.

Stopping an offense like this is incredibly challenging. Man defenders have to fight their way through the flow of traffic, and zone defenses have to remain firm on the backside as they follow the play across the field. Shanahan will flood regions of the field with multiple receivers to force defenses into difficult decisions, and he has a quarterback who knows how to read and react to pick these defenses to pieces.

Discipline is crucial to containing the Falcons. And more than any other team in the league, the Patriots run on discipline. Belichick is a great schemer, a great manager, and a great teacher, but what really sets him apart is his ability to drill in basic fundamentals. Even when they didn’t have any good players, the Patriots still played technically sound football on the defensive side, and they will be prepared for the challenge facing them.

When I look at this game from a wider sense, it’s hard not to think the Falcons have the edge almost across the board. Their defense is full of holes, but they have enough talent to make a few stops here and there. The real question is whether New England’s defense can do the same against the best offense in the league. I look at Atlanta, and I see too much talent for them to overcome.

But these are the Patriots. And they have Belichick. This is the one area where they have a clear edge, even as remarkable as Shanahan has been this year. It may be enough to make the difference on a couple crucial plays, which could ultimately swing the game in their favor.

But I don’t think so. The Falcons are too deep, too explosive, and too talented for even Bill Belichick to outmaneuver. Which is why I am picking them as the 2017 Super Bowl Champions.

Atlanta Falcons 37 – New England Patriots 31