An Obvious Solution

Thursday Night Football is only a few years old, yet it is already entrenched in the minds of NFL viewers. We all know what to expect from these games. Sloppy play, lots of penalties, and an increased rate of injury are almost synonymous with Thursday Night Football. They still draw fantastic ratings, but no one particularly looks forward to these games—not the fans, not the coaches, and definitely not the players.

The shortened week leads to the lowest quality of football and can have far reaching consequences to those who attempt to play without allowing their bodies to properly recuperate from the previous Sunday’s game. A couple times last year there were even teams who couldn’t find 46 healthy players to have active for the game, and with a short week there is no way they could bring someone in off the street and hope to have them contribute even on special teams. Thursday Night Football is usually ugly, rarely competitive, and on the whole barely worth watching.

But as bad as it is, it’s here to stay. There is too much money involved, and as we have seen repeatedly over the past few years, the league office will do whatever it wants if there is significant money at stake. Earlier this year a bidding war broke out for the rights to broadcast Thursday Night Football, eventually going to CBS for $275 million for a single year. For comparison, the average NFL game brings in about $6 million in ticket sales. Selling the broadcast rights to thirteen games produced as much revenue for the NFL as the ticket sales for three weeks of action. We’re talking about the rights for the NFL’s lowest rated primetime games, a value that will only increase during the next round of bidding next year. The NFL is not getting rid of Thursday Night Football, no matter how many people complain.

As people have realized this over the past couple years, they’ve begun to try to figure out solutions to this problem. We need to find a way to make the games better while satisfying the fans, the coaches, the players, and—most importantly—the league offices. Many propositions suggest playing each game after both teams have had their bye week, but there are several reasons this wouldn’t work. First of all, the bye weeks only occur from Week 4 through Week 11, and the Thursday Night Games run through the entire season. It might be possible to convince the NFL to cut a couple of the games, but they seem to like the idea of every team playing at least once on a Thursday. We still need sixteen games, and it wouldn’t be possible to coordinate the byes. The players wouldn't be happy about this change either. Every team gives their players a week off from practice when they’re on the bye, giving them time to spend with their families or travel. Placing a Thursday game immediately after the bye would force the teams to cut into their bye weeks for practice, essentially splitting the players’ short time off into two smaller chunks.

There is a solution to this, and it’s one so obvious that it should have already happened. Players don’t want to sacrifice their bye weeks, but these games can still be coordinated with a bye week if we give every team an additional bye during the season. Expand the season to 18 weeks, give every team two bye weeks, and schedule all the Thursday games for the week following one of the team’s byes. Under this schedule we would need bye weeks to run from Week 2 through Week 15, but in the extreme weeks we could restrict it to only the teams playing in the following Thursday’s game, to prevent fans from having to go two full weeks without seeing their team early or late in the season. These teams would still have a normal bye week during the middle of the year, and they wouldn’t have to worry about playing a long stretch of uninterrupted games. All 32 teams would be able to play on a Thursday (including the two additional Thanksgiving games) and none would have to do so on a shortened week.

The reason the fans will like this is fairly simple: the football will not be nearly as terrible. Rather than watching players coming off four days rest, they will be watching players who haven’t played a game in a full eleven days. Their bodies will be as recovered as possible from the pounding of their last game, and they will have had plenty of time to study the tape of their opposition and practice their team’s game plan. We will see a much higher quality product, better even than a normal Sunday game. This should lead to more competitive games and fewer sloppy mistakes.

Coaches will love the extra time just as much as the fans. Four days isn’t nearly enough time to study tape, prepare a game plan, and implement it among the players. Most coaching staffs have to begin preparations even before their previous game is played, dividing their resources and hurting themselves for Sunday’s matchup. An extra week will eliminate these concerns, giving them the maximum time possible to prepare their team for the competition. Coaches love bye weeks, and adding another one to the schedule will only make their jobs easier.

No one has reason to love this more than the players. It is borderline criminal to ask people to play two football games within a span of four days. The human body simply isn’t capable of handling that sort of punishment, and you see that in the abnormally high rate of injuries that take place in Thursday games. The NFLPA has spent the past few years fighting to improve the conditions of their players, trying to prevent injuries that can derail careers and harm long term futures. Fixing Thursday Night Football has long been one of their top priorities, and under this plan they would be able to do so without having to sacrifice their bye week.

So that leaves only one faction to worry ourselves with: the faction with all the power. The NFL is a league run by the owners, and they have shown repeatedly that they don’t give a damn what the fans, the coaches, or the players want. If something doesn’t help make them money, they have very little interest in it. Fortunately, this plan will bring plenty of extra money to the owners’ pockets.

The number one issue on the owners’ minds over the past few years has been the possibility of expanding the season to 18 games. The reasons for this are obvious—more games means more tickets and more television viewership, leading to more money—but to this point they have been shut down by a lack of public support and fierce resistance from the players, who don’t want to risk additional games on an already brutal schedule. With the recent lawsuits and negative publicity around the concussion issue, it seems unlikely that the schedule will expand anytime soon. The owners are stuck with a 16 game season.

Adding an additional bye would have some of the effect of adding an additional two games on the schedule. The number of games would still be the same so there would be no increase in ticket sales, but an extra week of games means an extra week of television. There are some viewers who will still only watch the games played by their favorite teams, but there are plenty of fans who will tune in every week no matter who is playing. The networks would definitely be willing to renegotiate their contracts to account for this additional week, bringing in more revenue for the league and the owners.

It is rare to find a solution to a problem that satisfies everyone involved, but in this case it’s hard to find a problem with this plan. There may be a few small kinks to work out, but this is the sort of thing that should already have happened. We’ve suffered through enough miserable Thursday night games over the past few years. It’s time to make a real effort towards improving the competition of these games.

Technical Football - Defense

Modern football fans are smart, and they keep getting smarter. Most people who watch football on a regular basis know what you’re talking about when you refer to a blitz, or to play action, or to a nickel defense. Commentators are going more in depth with their analysis every year, and the growth of internet blogs like this one has made it easier for fans to find in depth analysis. But there is still so much more about football out there, so much that even I don’t fully understand. This is a beautifully complex game, with nuances of technique and scheme that most fans aren’t aware of. So strap yourselves in as I take you on a highly technical tour of NFL defenses.

Note: As I said above, I don’t know everything. I never played football above a high school level, and several of the things I’m discussing below were never handled in my high school’s defense. It is very possible that some of my readers know more than me on these topics. If I’m wrong about something, feel free to leave a comment so I can correct it. I would love nothing more than to learn even more about football.

Linemen Positioning

The terminology for the positioning of defensive linemen has been around in football for decades, but it has only recently become common in the vocabulary of casual football fans. It is a fairly straightforward numbering scheme, shown the diagram below. The numbers increase out in a mirrored pattern from the center. The even numbers represent a defensive player lining directly in front of an offensive lineman—0 for the center, 2 for a guard, 4 for a tackle, and 6 for a tight end (if present.) The odd numbers fill in the gaps in between, though they technically refer to the outside shoulders of the respective linemen. As you can see, the numbers get a little messed up out around the edge, but on the interior it is mostly easy to figure out. Teams sometimes focus on finer details and will add the letter “i” to an even number to indicate the inside shoulder of an offensive linemen.

 

This terminology has been used in several contexts over the past few years. The most common is when describing the smaller, quicker defensive tackle in a 4-3 scheme. This defensive tackle is commonly known as “the 3-technique” since that is where he lines up in most normal alignments. Another common usage is when discussing a defensive end in the “Wide 9” position. As the name suggests, this indicates an end lining up far outside the tackle box. This offers a lot of advantages as a pass rusher, but it takes the ends out of the run game, opening up a massive lane for backs to run through. To play this sort of defense a team needs extremely stout linebackers, and it is normally used only in obvious passing situations.

One Gap

There are two main techniques employed by defensive linemen. The first and simplest of these is “one gapping.” A one gap scheme is all about pressure, relying on a defensive lineman to control a single gap by penetrating into the backfield. Linemen in this scheme are usually required to be explosive off the ball and to know how to disengage with blockers off initial contact. They are typically smaller and quicker than linemen who engage with blockers. Most of the linemen who consistently make plays in the backfield do so running a one gap scheme, allowing them the freedom to be aggressive and use their speed to shoot past an offensive lineman.

As you would expect, one gapping has its strengths and weaknesses. It can blow up traditional running schemes, penetration often making it impossible for backside linemen to pull around and contribute to the play. But it can cause problems against a zone running scheme, where blockers are perfectly content to let a defender run himself out of the play to give the runner an open lane to cut through. The one major advantage one gapping offers is against the pass, where penetrating defensive linemen can present quick pressure in the face of the quarterback. Edge pressure causes plenty of problems, but pressure directly in front of the quarterback can be even worse, giving him no time to make decisions and preventing him from being able to see downfield.

Two Gap

Two gapping is essentially the opposite of one gapping. In this scheme a defensive lineman is responsible for both the gaps on either side of him, and it is up to him to prevent the blockers from pushing him in a way that he can’t engage with a runner coming through either gap. He needs to use his size and his hands to establish control off the snap of the ball, standing the opposing lineman up and trying to push him into the backfield rather than trying to run around him. If he can gain proper control, he should be able to cast the blocker aside in either direction once he knows where the play is going.

Two gapping is what most people think of when they imagine defensive linemen, particularly defensive tackles. It requires someone who is big and stout (aka fat) to hold his ground and to allow the linebackers to scrape through the holes. It prevents the defensive linemen from making many plays, but it allows for a more cohesive, technically sound defense. It doesn’t provide much in the way of a pass rush, but the best defensive tackles can shove linemen back to collapse the pocket, giving the quarterback less room to escape from the edge rushers.

Stunt

There is another important technique used by the defensive front that I need to bring up, and that is stunting. A stunt is a called play intended to confuse an offense’s blocking scheme by switching the responsibilities of the defenders. The simplest form of a stunt is a cross, as shown in the image below. One lineman—in this case the defensive end—will crash hard across the blocker beside him, shooting into the gap between him and the defensive tackle. His goal is to draw the blocker ahead of him towards this gap while the tackle loops around and races through the open hole. The lineman responsible for the defensive tackle won’t be able to fight through the muddle, and unless his teammate can recognize and make the switch the defensive tackle will have a clear lane into the backfield. If he’s smart about it, the defensive end can even get away with grabbing hold of the outside offensive lineman to prevent him from sliding out and picking up the defensive tackle.

There are many varieties of stunts between the line and the linebackers. A crashing defensive linemen will often try to occupy two blockers while a linebacker blitzes in behind him. Stunts are effective against either the run or the pass, though they can also create easy leverage for an offensive lineman to use in the running game. They are better off used by teams without elite defensive linemen, who struggle to win individual matchups. If at all possible, teams are probably better off just letting their defensive linemen play the gaps in front of him.

3-4 vs 4-3

There has been a lot made about the differences in defensive schemes. Whenever a team struggles on defense, they usually bring in a new coach who promises a switch to a new alignment, exciting fans over all the possibilities. In truth, there is very little functional difference in schemes any longer. Traditionally, the 3-4 defense asked its defensive linemen to play primarily as two gappers, leaving its linebackers free to make more plays. But as the passing game has grown, 3-4 teams have begun to ask for more penetration from their defensive linemen, leading to the development of playmaking 3-4 ends like JJ Watt and Muhammad Wilkerson. And now that teams play most of their snaps with nickel personnel both schemes end up looking a lot alike.

Here’s Washington, a 3-4 team in the nickel.

And here’s Seattle, a 4-3 team in the nickel. See the difference?

When going to the nickel, a 4-3 team normally takes a linebacker off the field. When going to the nickel, a 3-4 team normally takes a defensive lineman off the field and moves their edge linebackers up onto the line. The only difference is whether the outside players go down into a 3-point stance or remain standing in a 2-point stance. So the next time you hear someone freaking out about the change from a 4-3 to a 3-4 or vice versa, try not to laugh too hard.

Zone Blitz

Blitzes have been around since the beginning of football, and most casual fans understand how they work. At the snap of the ball one of the linebackers rushes towards the line of scrimmage, attempting to shoot into the backfield to disrupt the play. Normally linebackers are supposed to read and react, but on blitzes they become aggressors like the linemen in front of them. Blitzes are useful for creating pressure on the quarterback and for breaking down the blocking scheme of a running game.

There is one major downside to blitzing on a pass play. Bringing an extra rusher means one fewer man in coverage, and for a team that wants to play a zone coverage scheme this puts an extra burden on every defender on the field. No offensive line can hold against a blitz indefinitely, but if they can weather the initial rush the quarterback usually has time to find a hole in the zone. Normally teams try to avoid this by playing man coverage, but in the past couple decades teams have found a way to disrupt pass protection without sacrificing the ability to play zone.

The sneaky secret behind a zone blitz is that it often isn’t technically a blitz. Like a normal blitz, one of the linebackers will rush into the backfield at the snap of the ball, leaving the other defenders behind him to play in coverage. But unlike on a normal blitz, on a zone blitz one of the defensive lineman will not rush the passer. Instead he will drop back into coverage, filling the zone that would normally be taken by the linebacker. The decrease in coverage ability is made up for by the confusion sown by the presence of the extra rusher and the man dropping into coverage where the quarterback isn’t expecting him, leading to plays like the one below.

Coverages

There are three primary categories of coverage schemes, all with names that make it pretty clear what they are. The number describes how many zones the deep portion of the field is split into, zones usually patrolled by safeties or cornerbacks. I don’t have the knowledge or the space to go into the full details of the coverages, so I will instead focus on the three largest blanket categories. Each of these is just one part of a coverage scheme, and they can all be played with varying schemes in the underneath portions of the field.

Cover 1

Cover 1 is the most popular coverage currently used in the NFL. A single safety will sit in the deep middle of the field, reading the quarterback to decide how to take away the top half of the defense. This frees a team’s second safety to drop down into the box for run support or to bounce outside to match up with a receiver in the slot. Cover 1 normally works best with man coverage underneath. Dividing the field into zones can take away almost every passing lane underneath, but there are very few safeties who can cover sideline to sideline in the deep zone. Most teams are better off matching up man to man across the board, relying on the single safety as a backup option in case the receiver beats his man deep.

Cover 2

Cover 2 is the most varied of all the coverage schemes. It is possible to play with either man or zone coverage underneath, and it is often used when a defense wants to try to disguise what it is doing from the quarterback. It offers plenty of protection in case of breakdowns, but it doesn’t take too many defenders away from the shorter portions of the field.

The scheme most commonly associated with Cover 2 is one that has fallen out of favor in recent years: the Tampa 2. Spread through the NFL by Tony Dungy and his assistants, it uses two safeties deep to patrol the outside of the fields while the cornerbacks sit in the flats to take away quick passes. The weaknesses of this scheme are down the middle of the field between the two safeties and on the sidelines in the window between the cornerbacks and the safeties. Ten years ago this was the most popular and most successful system in the league, but offenses have adapted to attack these vulnerabilities, leading to a trend towards more man coverage. Plenty of teams still use Cover 2, but they use it in a different way than they did a decade ago.

Cover 3

By now you can see the pattern. Cover 3 divides the field into three deep zones, usually handled either by a pair of cornerbacks and a safety—leaving the other safety free to roam—or by a single cornerback who rotates back to cover beside the two safeties. It is very difficult to complete deep passes against this defense, short of sending four receivers all running down the field together (which is actually a far better play than you would think.) Most teams that use this scheme employ a zone underneath. Playing man to man would leave only three defenders available to rush the passer, though teams sometimes still send four if they aren’t worried about the running back leaking out of the backfield.

Seattle’s Cover 3

There are countless variations to the basic coverage schemes I listed above, but Seattle’s version of the Cover 3 is one that I want to bring particular attention to. Seattle’s dominance on defense owes a lot to the fantastic players that make up that side of the ball, but just as much credit needs to go to their scheme, one of the most innovative and inimitable in the NFL. Their primary defense is a form of Cover 3, but they have enhanced it by playing press coverage with their outside cornerbacks before asking them to drop into deep zones. This takes away many of the quick passes to the outside that teams commonly use to exploit Cover 3 defenses, giving their linebackers additional time to drop into the flats while the cornerbacks float back into the deep corners.

This scheme is very difficult to beat, but it only works because of the discipline and athleticism of the players in it. Seattle has one of the most athletic linebacker corps in the game, allowing them to keep their linebackers in the box without leaving themselves vulnerable in the flats. The length and athleticism of their cornerbacks makes it easier to play press coverage and to recover when a receiver manages to slip the initial press. Even when one of their cornerbacks is beaten deep, the window for a quarterback to throw the ball over their outstretched arms is very small. And most importantly, they have the best cover safety in the game in Earl Thomas. Thomas is fast and smart, and he’s been coached up by Pete Carroll, who has been known for decades as one of the best defensive back coaches in football. Other teams are now implementing parts of this scheme into their defense, but it is highly unlikely that any will be able to replicate Seattle’s success.

The Cowardice of Roger Goodell

I wasn’t planning to write anything about the NFL’s recent troubles off the field. There has been more than enough written on the subject, and I didn’t feel like adding another sanctimonious diatribe to the internet. I want my blog to focus on what’s taking place on the field, not what a few players are doing off of it. But in the days since the indictment of Adrian Peterson—one of my favorite players of all time—it has been difficult to turn my mind away from the issues dominating conversation around the league. I had to get my thoughts out in the open, so here they are. If you don’t feel like reading this, I don’t blame you. I’m writing this for myself, not for any of my readers.

Let me start by getting one thing out in the open: I think that all of this has been blown out of proportion. The crimes committed were horrible, but I don’t buy the widely held notion that this is a leaguewide issue. The NFL does not have a domestic violence problem. Society has a domestic violence problem, and the NFL is being held up for everyone to unleash their rage against. The rate of domestic violence among NFL players is lower than among average Americans, and the recent spate of incidents is not an outlier from years past. The simple reality is, if you gather together two thousand random people and shine the spotlight on them, you will wind up with similar incidents of crime to what we are seeing currently in the NFL.

But the NFL isn’t just another part of society. These players stand in the spotlight in a way normal people simply don’t, and because of their notoriety we look to them to set examples for the rest of society. To find evidence of the league’s influence we need only to look at what happened following the emergence of the Ray Rice video. Several domestic violence hotlines reported a sharp increase in calls in the week following Rice’s release by the Ravens. As badly as the NFL bungled that situation, there was still some good that came out of it.

The league has received a lot of criticism over the past couple weeks for failing to properly handle the incidents of violence among their players. This criticism is patently unfair—not because they handled the situation well, but because they never had a chance to handle it the right way. Society as a whole still doesn’t know how to punish people guilty of these offenses. Accusations of domestic violence drip through our court system like water through a leaky roof. People who have spent their entire lives studying criminal justice still can’t construct a system capable of properly punishing people guilty of these crimes. Why would anyone expect an organization of sports bureaucrats to handle it better?

A two game suspension was not a reasonable punishment for Ray Rice, but to their credit the league office realized this and made changes in response to the public outcry. They issued a new policy on domestic violence, clearly defining a six game penalty for a first time offense and a lifetime ban for any ensuing violations. There were still plenty of people who found problem with this policy, but it was a clear message from the NFL that they knew they had made a mistake and that they were trying to rectify the situation. It is still unfortunate that they weren’t able to get things right the first time around, but I don’t think they received the proper credit for their willingness to implement change.

But there remains one major problem that the league hasn’t taken steps to address: Roger Goodell. Ever since he ascended to the position of Commissioner of the NFL, Goodell has made it clear that one of his main goals is cracking down on the league’s off the field issues. Under the personal conduct policy he established himself as the sole arbiter of punishment, deciding the weights of fines and lengths of suspensions for every incident that came before him. He did this without oversight, without consulting people properly qualified for the task. Yet for the first few years, everything went smoothly. He handed down punishments, and he reaped all the adulation from the public. He set himself up as the only person to receive credit, and it shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone that he received all the blame when the system finally collapsed.

Discipline in a sporting league is a difficult problem. The vast majority of NFL fans are Americans, instilled with the American value of due process. They have been told since birth that everyone is innocent until proven guilty and that everyone deserves their day in court. But recent years have seen a trend away from that, as victim’s advocacy groups have grown in number and influence to combat crimes that are often difficult to punish under traditional due process. In cases like sexual assault and domestic violence, it is often the word of the victim against the word of the accused. Without any further evidence, we cannot presume that the accused is lying, thus putting us against the victim. It is a no win situation, one that consistently leads to horrific crimes going unpunished.

The courts fail in these cases, but fortunately the NFL is not bound by the same principles of due process. Goodell established quickly that there needed to be no legal proof of guilt to earn punishment from the league. Adam Jones missed an entire season despite never being convicted of a crime. Ben Roethlisberger was suspended four games despite never even being arrested or charged. This made plenty of people uncomfortable, but it was this sort of decisive action that won Goodell the praise of many within the media and the public.

Goodell’s willingness to cast aside traditional notions of justice led to his rise, and now it has caused his fall. The moment he made it clear he was willing to step across a line the courts weren’t able to, he opened himself up to criticism every time he refused to cross another line. It wasn’t just enough to suspend the players. They needed to be suspended immediately, before the courts weighed in on the matter. Ray Rice’s suspension wasn’t harsh enough, so he needs to be suspended again. And at last he gave into the pressure, doubling up on Rice and giving him an indefinite suspension on top of the two games he had already been suspended.

This is where he ran into trouble. This is a classic case of double jeopardy, another action not permitted to the courts. But it is also prohibited under the NFL collective bargaining agreement, and the NFLPA did not take long to file a grievance to prevent this precedent from being established. In all likelihood they will win this appeal, Rice's suspension will be voided, and it will be another black eye for the Commissioner and the league.

By now Goodell has lost all the credibility he won from the public. He has screwed up every step of the Rice affair, and it will only get worse as the appeal works its way through the system. The media has turned against him, and the only appropriate course would be for him to step aside or for the owners to cast him out. But there is too much money at stake for that to happen, so he has been stuck as the face of a league that is trying to hide from the public.

Goodell knows his credibility is gone, but he still seems to believe there is some way for him to get it back. He thinks that this will all blow over, that he’ll be able to lay low for a few weeks and let people forget and forgive. He cancelled his appearance at the opening of the new 49ers stadium. He gave no press conferences until earlier today. He has retreated into hiding, hoping the games will distract people from his incompetence.

It might have worked. In fact, it probably would have worked had it not been for the Adrian Peterson situation. Earlier this summer one of Peterson’s children was visiting him in Texas when Peterson decided to discipline him by striking him with a switch. This isn’t illegal under Texas law, or under the laws of several other states. The indictment only came because Peterson went overboard, accidentally causing more serious injuries than he intended.

This case wasn’t as cut and dry as Rice’s, but it was still an excellent opportunity for Goodell to try to win back some of the support he had lost. Peterson admitted that he had struck the child and caused the injuries, so there was no question about his guilt to justify delaying the punishment. It wasn’t the same scenario addressed under the league’s new domestic violence policy, but it wouldn’t have been difficult to interpret that policy to include violence against children. Goodell could have come out, suspended Peterson for six games without pay, and shown everyone that the league was still capable of disciplining its players.

Instead, he’s done nothing. He’s said nothing. Roger Goodell, the Commissioner of the league and the ultimate decider of justice among NFL players, hid like a coward when he was needed most. He remained out of the picture, and he allowed the public’s attention to shift away from him. When it became clear that the league itself was not going to do anything to punish these players, the public turned their eyes on their respective teams to mete out punishment.

It should surprise no one that the Vikings failed. There is a reason the league has handled disciplinary issues in the past rather than leaving it to the teams. The league has no stakes in the fates of individual players and the fates of individual teams. They are capable of impartial judgment, without worrying about the consequences affecting them. This isn’t the case on the team level. As I discussed on Wednesday, Vikings General Manager Rick Spielman is on the hot seat this season. He needs the team to show some progress if he wants to keep his job for next year, progress that becomes significantly tougher with the absence of his best player. After their disastrous defeat against the Patriots, who expected the Vikings to keep Peterson inactive? Who honestly thought the Vikings management would risk their own necks for the sake of doing what the league was too scared to do?

Even after the Vikings announced they had activated Peterson, the league did nothing. They let the team take all the blame, expecting them to shove themselves further onto the sword they had already fallen on. Of course, there was only so much the Vikings could do. Teams can only suspend their players for a maximum of four weeks, a punishment that would never fly with the public. They could keep Peterson inactive, but that would eat up one of their 53 roster spots, putting them at a competitive disadvantage for the rest of the year. The only other option was cutting him, a move with consequences far greater than the Vikings wanted to deal with.

Eventually, the Vikings did find a solution. They tracked down an obscure rule under the NFL policies allowing a player to be suspended indefinitely with pay in the case of legal matters. They initiated contact with the league offices, and they had Peterson placed on this list, likely for the rest of the season. The laughable part of this is that a player can only be put on this list by the Commissioner, yet Goodell still hasn’t spoken on the matter. He punished Peterson, and he took no credit for it because he knew the public would never again buy anything with his name on it. In doing so he hung the Vikings out to dry, letting them bear the brunt of the public’s scorn and leaving them no choice to hold their best player out for eight games more than he would have faced under the policies of the league that were established less than one month ago.

The media has managed to turn the public against Roger Goodell, stripping him of all the credibility they gave him at the beginning of his tenure. Some of this is deserved, some if it isn’t. But it is clear right now that the league cannot function while Goodell is in charge. The reason he needs to step down isn’t moral, it’s practical. We can’t afford any more messes like what happened with Adrian Peterson. Someone needs to be in charge, and that cannot be Goodell any longer.

When Will We See The First Round Quarterbacks?

The first two weeks of the NFL season have come and gone, and there has been plenty to talk about. The Bills have put together two very solid wins and now sit alone atop the AFC East. The Saints have struggled through two defeats on the road, showing no signs of the defensive improvement I expected (not the last thing I’ll be wrong about this year.) These first two weeks have seemingly produced as many wonderful moments as entire previous season, from the ludicrous…

…to the painful…

…to the predictable…

…to the physically perplexing…

…to the downright hilarious.

We’ve seen a lot over the first few weeks, but there’s one thing we haven’t seen: a pass completion by a first round draft pick. For the first time since 2007 there was no first round quarterback starting in Week One, and through the second week only Johnny Manziel has even seen the field. We’ve had plenty of glimpses of Blake Bortles and Teddy Bridgewater standing on the sidelines, but fans are starting to wonder how long it will be before we can finally see them on the field. After all, second round pick Derek Carr has started both games for the Raiders, and he has been a tremendous bright spot for them. (Not really, but he’s shown some competence while his teammates bumble around him like dying seals.)

All three will most likely remain on the bench for the next week, but it’s not because of any particular competence from the quarterbacks ahead of them. Below I’ve posted a chart put together by Chase Stuart of Football Perspective ranking the performances of every quarterback who saw action this weekend (not including Monday Night’s game, sorry) on a per attempt basis. Both Hoyer and Manziel’s lonely pass attempt sit right around the league average. Chad Henne and Matt Cassel can be found in the bottom three, sandwiched around Matt Ryan (whose performance this weekend might mean I was as wrong about Cincinnati’s defense as I was about New Orleans’s.) Henne was wretched this weekend, but Cassel blew all other quarterbacks out of the water. By these rankings Cassel’s performance against the Patriots would have been the third worst of 2013, ahead of only EJ Manuel against the Buccaneers and Blaine Gabbert against the Chiefs. That is a stunning level of incompetence, and it still doesn’t look like it will be enough for him to lose his job. So when are we finally going to see these quarterbacks take the field? What will it take for these dismal veterans to finally fade into oblivion?

 

Blake Bortles

Well, Jacksonville, the first half of Week One was pretty great, wasn’t it? It’s just too bad that you have to play another 31 halves the rest of the year. Because since taking a 17-0 lead over the Eagles, the Jaguars have been far and away the worst team in the league, somehow even more dreadful than the Raiders. They were torn apart by Nick Foles playing as badly as he has played in his career, and they fared even worse against the turnover machine that is Kirk Cousins this week. Receivers are running wide open through their secondary. Their offensive line is turning around and watching as pass rushers swarm their backfield. And Toby Gerhart is somehow turning this into a two yard carry.

 

Henne has not been put in a position to succeed, but that does not excuse how terrible his performance has been. No one in their right mind can still believe he is a capable NFL starter, and even a raw, inexperienced passer like Bortles has to be a better option at this point. If the coaches were just doing what is best for their team as a whole—as often is claimed when playing a veteran over a rookie—they would put Bortles on the field as soon as possible knowing that they aren’t going to be winning very many games with their current option under center.

But this is a case of rookie quarterbacks, and what is best for the team isn’t the only thing that matters. The long term has to be considered, and they have to do what is best for the development of the player they drafted to be the future of their franchise. I’ve made my opinion very clear on this subject. I think that the best way for someone to develop as a quarterback is to play as a quarterback, and I don’t buy into the theory that growth can be stunted by early career struggles. The only exception I can see for this is David Carr, who was clearly affected by the pressure he received early in his career. But this is an extreme example, a player responsible for two of the three highest sack total seasons in NFL history. Even bad offensive lines can give their quarterbacks enough protection on most plays to prevent scarring him in such a manner.

Normally I would insist on Bortles going on the field right away, but we only need to look at the chart I posted above to see a glaring reason why he should remain on the bench. Henne was sacked ten times this past weekend, more than twice the number suffered by any quarterback other than Cassel. This is an insane number of sacks. Even David Carr never had to endure ten sacks in one game. Jacksonville’s offensive line may just be every bit as terrible as the one that failed to protect Carr in Houston. If there is a situation in the NFL that could scar a quarterback for the rest of his career, this is it.

I’m not sure what I would do if I was in charge of this team. Bortles is a large, athletic quarterback who is built to weather pressure, but it is difficult to justify putting anyone behind such atrocious protection. This uncertainty makes it even more difficult to try to figure out when he will finally see the field. They face Indianapolis and San Diego in the next two weeks, both of which are difficult matchups the Jaguars are likely to lose. But both teams also struggle to create pressure on the quarterback, and it wouldn’t be a mistake to put Bortles in if the team struggles. They still might want to wait until after their Week Five game against Pittsburgh. The Steelers aren’t what they used to be defensively, but they still run a complex and confusing scheme that has traditionally torn apart rookie quarterbacks.

If I had to put money on a specific week, I would expect to see Bortles in Week Seven against the Browns. The Jaguars will likely be 0-6 or 1-5 headed into this game, and pressure from fans and ownership will be too much for even the most stubborn coaches to handle. This is a good matchup for Bortles to start off with, a home game against a team that might actually be bad enough for Jacksonville to beat. Of all these projections this is the one I am least confident about, but I think this is the game that makes the most sense.

Johnny Manziel

Manziel is the only first round quarterback to have seen the field so far, not that he did anything particularly notable. He handed the ball off a couple times before throwing his first career pass, a checkdown that was dropped by his fullback. Meanwhile, the actual starter for the Browns remains Brian Hoyer, an option perhaps even more uninspiring than Henne or Cassel. The Browns have gone 1-1 since he became the starter—including an impressive win over New Orleans—but nothing he has done so far has been particularly impressive. He hasn’t been as bad as either of the other veterans starting ahead of rookies, but he still has done nothing in his career to show he can be anything better than an average starting quarterback.

For some teams an average quarterback might be enough. Surrounded by proper talent, I think Hoyer could lead a team to the playoffs. But Cleveland doesn’t have that sort of talent on offense, not with two rookies trading off time at running back and a wide receiving corps littered with castoffs from around the league. They lack playmakers on the offensive side of the ball, and Hoyer certainly isn’t going to help that problem. Manziel still has a lot of issues he has to fix if he wants to become a successful NFL quarterback, but it is impossible to deny his playmaking abilities. He can create something from nothing in a way that Hoyer simply can’t.

Cleveland is in an awkward position right now because it isn’t clear what their objectives for this season are. Of course every team wants to make the playoffs, but some (like Jacksonville) understand internally that this isn’t a realistic possibility. Cleveland’s GM and coaching staff are in their first season, so no one is under any pressure to make the playoffs to keep their jobs (unlike in Minnesota, which I’ll address below.) This team is not very good, and they have no reason to sell out for a playoff spot this season. But in the weak AFC, it might just be possible for an 8-8 team to snag the final Wild Card slot. That sort of opportunity is enticing, especially for a franchise that has only made the postseason once in their newest incarnation. Even a first round exit would be considered a wild success in Cleveland, and it would buy their coaching staff and management good will for the next two or three seasons.

Brian Hoyer can’t get this team to the playoffs. Johnny Manziel might be able to. With one of the better offensive lines in the league the risk of putting him out there is small. The only concern would be that immediate success might reinforce some of his bad habits, but with proper coaching they can find a way to use Manziel while still teaching him to refine his game. Adding a dangerous playmaker to their offense could be the spark they need to get over the hump. It could also be an unmitigated disaster, but there is no real loss if Manziel fails this season. Missing the playoffs by two games with Hoyer isn’t any different from missing it by five games with Manziel. As soon as they get the opportunity, the Browns should turn to their rookie quarterback.

So when will they bring him in? The victory over New Orleans bought Hoyer some time, even though he wasn’t particularly impressive during the game. This week against Baltimore may not go as well, but I still think they will need two bad games back to back to justify naming Manziel the starter. After the Ravens they get the Titans and the Steelers. I don’t think they’ll shy away from using Manziel against Pittsburgh if they feel it’s necessary, but I still think they’ll hold out until Week Seven, when they play the Jaguars.

(Yes, I think there’s a good chance that Manziel and Bortles debut on the same day on the same field. Would probably increase the viewership of this game tenfold.)

There is another scenario that needs considered. Say the Browns do surprisingly well over their next three games, winning one or two and staying competitive in the others. They will likely still use Manziel as an occasional package in these games, and if he struggles it could give them more reason to hold him on the bench. If Hoyer can make it through the next three weeks without losing his job, there is a decent chance we could go most of the season without seeing Manziel. After the Pittsburgh game the Browns have a stretch of the Jaguars, Raiders, and Buccaneers, three games they could easily win. That would shove them right into the middle of the playoff race and would give Hoyer a cushion before facing the gauntlet of Cincinnati, Houston, and Atlanta. I still think it is highly unlikely that Hoyer lasts through the season, but there is a chance that we don’t see Manziel as the starter until Week Thirteen against the Bills.

Teddy Bridgewater

At last we get to Teddy, the quarterback who likely should already be starting for his team. He was the most NFL ready of any of these quarterbacks coming out of college, and he showed it during an impressive preseason. He only failed to grab the job due to unusual competence from Cassel during the preseason, and everyone understood that this was a temporary matter. Sooner or later Bridgewater will take over as the starting quarterback for the Vikings, and I’m starting to suspect that it is going to be sooner.

Only the most hopelessly oblivious Vikings fans harbored hope that Cassel would be a reliable option coming into this season. We all knew what we were going to see from him, though none of us expected it to be quite as bad as the game against the Patriots. He threw four interceptions, constantly forcing the ball to covered receivers and failing to attack the defense over the top. Since ESPN began tracking this data in 2006, Cassel is the first quarterback to start in both Week One and Week Two without completing at least two passes ten or more yards downfield. He is 1-11 so far on such attempts, a success rate that would shock even Christian Ponder. No one has any faith in Cassel anymore, and the fans are starting to grow restless for the arrival of their first round pick.

Minnesota’s situation differs from Cleveland’s and Jacksonville’s in that there is actually something on the line. General manager Rick Spielman barely made it through last season with his job, and it’s been very clear from the moment Leslie Frazier was fired that his future with the team would swing on the progress made this season. His seat only became hotter with the lawsuit filed by Chris Kluwe this offseason, and I think there’s a good chance that his fate was sealed with the botched handling of the Adrian Peterson situation this past week. More than anyone else he made himself the face of the team during their ill fated attempts to mete out punishment, and he is the perfect fall guy if the heat doesn't die down.

The loss of their best offensive player won’t help Bridgewater when he finally takes over as the starter, but it might hasten his arrival. The Vikings need some way to change topics from the Peterson situation, something to fire up a dispirited fan base. More importantly, Spielman needs something to use in his defense when it comes time for his evaluation at the end of the year. Nothing saves a GM like a successful quarterback draft pick, and nothing makes fans forget about everything else like a promising young star stepping onto the field for the first time.

When the season began I expected to see Bridgewater take over in Week Six against the Lions. The Vikings will be coming off a long week after a Thursday night game against the Packers, and it will be in front of a home crowd against a questionable defense. But with everything that has happened I’m going to move up my projection. The Vikings play the Saints in New Orleans this weekend, facing down a much better team desperate for a win. This will not end well for them, and it will (barring injury) likely be the last game Cassel starts this season. In Week Four against Atlanta I think Bridgewater will make his anticipated debut.

As I referenced above, Cassel was the only quarterback to be sacked even half as many times as Henne, brought down six times by a mildly above average Patriots pass rush. Minnesota’s offensive line looked terrible in that game, but I don’t think that was a true representation of what they will be. In Week One against St Louis—one of the best pass rushes in the league—they surrendered only a single sack. The absence of Peterson will no doubt make it easier for teams to rush the passer, but I don’t think their line is bad enough to hinder Bridgewater’s development. In any case, it shouldn’t matter in the game against Atlanta. The Falcons have not managed a single sack through the first two weeks, the first team since 2009 to do this. There is no safer opportunity for Bridgewater to make his debut, and he should have a nice, easy day in the pocket if the team turns to him for the game against the Falcons.

Opening Week Excitement

On Wednesday I covered the teams panicking over the results of their opening week. Today I’m going to look at the other end of the spectrum, the teams excited over the success they found in their first game. Like the teams from my first post, these eight are likely overreacting to the results of a single game. I’ve ranked these teams on an Excitement Meter from 1 to 10, with 10 being the highest level of excitement. And yes, these rankings are ridiculous and arbitrary.

San Francisco 49ers

Colin Kaepernick

Ever since Kaepernick’s explosive debut on Monday Night Football against the Bears, everyone has been waiting for him to truly break out. He’s put together plenty of spectacular games (mostly in the postseason, which has only heightened his reputation) but has yet to show any real sign of becoming an elite NFL quarterback. For the past year or so his occasional inconsistencies have been blamed on his receiving corps, but with the health of Michael Crabtree and the addition of Stevie Johnson, that excuse is no longer available. Many expect him to break out this season, and after his opening week performance against the Cowboys these people are patting themselves on the back.

He certainly was impressive in the game, better than his solid numbers suggest. He was crisp and efficient, identifying the open receiver and hitting them exactly on schedule. The 49ers moved the ball effortlessly before settling into a plodding, game control mode in the second half, and Kaepernick was the biggest reason for their success. Of course, this all comes with one major caveat. They were playing against the Cowboys, maybe the worse defense in the league. It will be interesting to see what Kaepernick can do against a competent defensive unit, but for now there is every reason to believe he is ready to take the next step.

Excitement Meter: 7/10

Minnesota Vikings

Defense

Minnesota’s defense actually outscored their opponents this past weekend. They held the Rams to two field goals, and late in the game Harrison Smith returned an interception for a touchdown to put a cap on a fantastic debut game for head coach Mike Zimmer. Zimmer has a reputation as one of the best defensive coordinators in the NFL, transforming Cincinnati over the past six years into one of the best defenses in the NFL. He was brought into Minnesota to oversee the transition of the defense that was last in the league in points allowed last year, and this first game is certainly an indication that he is on the way to turning them around. They generated consistent pressure on the Rams quarterbacks, shut down the running game that was so prolific a season ago, and held in check a talented group of young receivers.

I don’t know if their defense will hold up much longer. Their next five games are against the Patriots, Saints, Falcons, Packers, and Lions, and it seems inevitable that they will face the harsh realities brought on by these elite offenses. But right now Vikings fans are thinking long term, and this defense is in great shape in the years ahead. Smith continues to make plays at safety, and I would be surprised if he doesn’t make the Pro Bowl this season. Second year player Sharrif Floyd was strong against the Rams, and with free agent signing Linval Joseph beside him the Vikings could have their next pair of dominant defensive tackles. They will only get better as players like Floyd and rookie Anthony Barr continue to improve. By next season this will absolutely be one of the top ten defenses in the NFL, and their ceiling is probably even higher than that.

Excitement Meter: 7/10

Carolina Panthers

Kelvin Benjamin

I was not high on Benjamin coming into the season. I thought that even with Carolina’s wretched receiving corps, he would still be the third best wide receiver option on their team. He is unpolished as a route runner, and he will struggle to create separation at this level. That’s still true, but it turns out you don’t need much separation if you’re 6’5” and can do this.

Benjamin’s opening game was everything Carolina could have hoped for, and more. The thinness of their receiving corps was the biggest concern heading into the season, but last year they showed they could field a playoff worthy offense with just a single above average receiver. If Benjamin can match this production over the course of the season, he can be the key to this roster exceeding expectations. But that is a very big if, especially at a position where big games come and go with seemingly little predictability. Here is a list put together by Chase Stuart of Football Perspective (one of the best football websites running) of the best performances by rookie receivers in their first game. Benjamin ranks 12^th on the list, behind a list of players ranging from Randy Moss to Stephen Hill. As good as Benjamin’s first game was, I wouldn't be surprised if he never comes close to that productivity the rest of the season.

Excitement Meter: 4/10

Philadelphia Eagles

Resilience

Last year Nick Foles threw 27 touchdowns to only 2 interceptions. That is insane, and absolutely unrepeatable. Everyone besides the most insane Eagles fans understands this—the media, the Eagles coaching staff, even Foles. The question coming into this season was not whether Foles would fall back to Earth. It was how far he would fall, and whether the team could survive anything other than perfect luck.

Even those anticipated significant regression from Foles could not have expected it to come so quickly. He lost fumbles on each of his first two possessions and threw an interception in the second quarter, nearly matching last season’s turnover total before halftime. The team dropped quickly into a 17 point hole before blowing things open in the fourth quarter and winning easily. Last year everything came easy to them, but a team can’t win a championship unless they can overcome adversity. The Eagles showed that they could do so this weekend, even if it was against one of the worst teams in the NFL. They will face more challenging situations down the road, but this one win could be enough to give them the confidence to stay in any game. With their explosive offense, they have no reason to worry about falling too far behind.

Excitement Meter: 5/10

Tennessee Titans

Breakout Defense

The Titans have an intriguing young defense, one that many people have been expecting to break out for several years. They have one of the most underrated cornerbacks in the NFL in Jason McCourty, probably the most athletic set of linebackers outside of Seattle, and an absolute superstar on the defensive line in Jurrell Casey. But last year that wasn’t enough, as they finished near the bottom of the league in defense again. This offseason saw a change in scheme as they switched to a 3-4, and I heard nothing during the preseason to suggest that this shift was going well. But we all know that the preseason can be deceiving, and this weekend they showed signs of finally reaching their potential. They held Kansas City to 10 points and forced three turnovers on their way to an easy victory.

There are a couple reasons not to believe in this defense. Kansas City’s offense is wretchedly terrible, and last season the Titans opened with a similarly dominant performance, holding the Steelers to 9 points before their defense fell apart over the course of the season. Their defense will definitely not be this good the entire year, but I think what we saw on Sunday was closer to the final product than most people realize. The talent is definitely there, and they are being led by a new defensive coordinator Ray Horton, who is responsible for constructing the Cardinals defense as it exists today. He is one of the better coordinators in the league, and I think he will turn this into a top ten defense by the end of next season.

Excitement Meter: 7/10

Cleveland Browns

Running Game

I covered this game some when looking at Pittsburgh in Wednesday’s post. As bad as the Steelers feel about their victory, the Browns have to feel fantastic about their defeat. After a dismal first half they showed some genuine life, rallying and getting in position to win the game before surrendering a late field goal. Quarterback Brian Hoyer played well during this stretch (even though he was lucky to have three passes dropped by Steelers defenders) but the real reason they got back in the game was their rushing attack. After starter Ben Tate went down, backups Terrance West and Isaiah Crowell combined to gain 132 yards on 21 carries, scoring two of the touchdowns that got them back into the game.

Cleveland’s running game was abysmal last season, part of the reason they led the league in pass attempts. But with their problems at wide receiver they will need a strong running game if they want to have any offensive success this season, and they may have found it. But I’m going to have to exercise caution for now, considering we’re dealing with two running backs who had never played an NFL game before last Sunday. This could very easily be a flash in the pan, something good NFL defenses can take away going forward. Any running game is a good sign for Cleveland, but they have a long way to go before I’m ready to believe.

Excitement Meter: 2/10

San Diego Chargers

Pass Rush

Like the Browns the Chargers lost their first game, a hard fought, devastating defeat by the Cardinals on Monday Night Football. As most people expected, their offense was not nearly as efficient as it was last season, managing only 17 points against a banged up Cardinals defense. We’ve always known that the offense is the strength of this team, and if they can’t score points their defense is not going to win them any games. Yet they came extremely close to winning on Monday, even with their disappointing performance on offense. They did so because, for the first time in years, they put together a solid pass rush. Rookie Jerry Attachou (who I covered in my AFC West Preview) generated consistent pressure, including a sack and a forced fumble. Arizona could not stretch the ball down the field, and for most of the game their offense could do nothing.

If this pass rush can hold up through the season, the Chargers suddenly become an easy favorite to grab one of the wild card spots. But I’m going to hold off my excitement for now, considering the end results of the game and the competition they were playing. Arizona has made a lot of moves to improve their offensive line, but this is still a unit that was at the bottom of the league the past few seasons. As the game went on the Cardinals managed to neutralize the pass rush by switching to an attack of quick, short passes. San Diego’s secondary still can’t hold up, and a pass rush won’t help them if they let receivers run wide open off the snap of the ball.

Excitement Meter: 3/10

New York Jets

Geno Smith

Smith was quietly very solid down the stretch last year. Everyone jumped off the bandwagon during a wretched November—a QB rating over a four game stretch of 24.5 will do that—but he rebounded with a competent December, nearly enough to push the Jets into the playoffs. Expectations were almost nonexistent coming into the season, with most people surprised when he earned the starting job over free agent signing Michael Vick. But in the first game of the season he outperformed anything anyone had predicted, completing 23 of his 28 passes for 221 yards and adding 38 yards on the ground. This is the sort of efficiency we did not see from him last year, and it certainly has to get Jets fans excited for the season ahead.

This is where I pump the brakes hard. It absolutely needs to be noted that Smith was playing against the Raiders, probably the worst team in football. The only way Oakland fields a competent defense is if they’re playing in a temporal distortion that turns everyone back into their 2009 selves. That wasn’t the case on Sunday, when Smith carved up a washed up unit of Justin Tuck, Lamarr Woodley, Charles Woodson, and Carlos Rogers. And even so, Smith’s performance and over 200 yards on the ground were only enough to earn the Jets 19 points. I’m going to need to see more before I believe, against competition that actually belongs on an NFL field.

Excitement Meter: 2/10