This is the ninth time I’ve written one of these midseason reviews, and I don’t think I’ve ever been this baffled by the top of the league. Every time I start to think a team might actually emerge as a favorite, they go ahead and lose in humiliating fashion against a far lesser opponent. This year’s championship race feels completely wide open, which is a good thing for people who like drama and a bad thing for people like me who have to try to make sense of this. But I’ll do my best, as I break the top half of the league into the tiers below.
Almost There
This top tier of teams is made up of the main contenders for the Super Bowl. None of these teams has separated themselves from the pack, but they all have the potential to take the next step over the coming weeks.
Green Bay Packers (8-2)
It would be pretty easy to call Green Bay the favorites right now. They are tied for the best record in the league, and their win over Arizona gives them the inside track to a first round bye in the playoffs. Their one bad loss came in the opening week of the season, and their other defeat was the week they were forced to start Jordan Love at quarterback. They’ve done this despite missing David Bakhtiari, Jaire Alexander, and Za’Darius Smith for big chunks of the season, and they should get all three back sometime soon.
The biggest red flag you can raise about Green Bay is that they've had a few lucky wins in close games so far, and they have a fairly tough schedule remaining the rest of the season. I still have some questions about their offense as well. Aaron Rodgers is not playing at the same MVP level he was at a year ago, and their repeated attempts to find a reliable receiver other than Davante Adams have gotten them nowhere. Still, they have two good running backs, an offensive line that should come together as it gets healthy, and a solid coaching staff. There aren’t any glaring holes on this team, which in a year like this sets them apart from every other team.
Arizona Cardinals (8-2)
It’s been a tough few weeks for Arizona. They lost a game they should have won against the Packers, and then they suffered even more concerning losses when Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins went down with injuries. Both should be back soon, but now the Cardinals find themselves looking at a steeper climb after being in the driver’s seat of the NFC just a few weeks ago.
Fortunately for Arizona their remaining schedule is fairly soft, so they still have a decent chance of claiming the top seed in the conference. If they can get this and stay healthy, their offensive firepower gives them a chance to beat any team on any day. Kyler Murray was in the MVP conversation before his injury, and Kliff Kingsbury has taken real steps this year as a play caller and an in-game manager. If those two keep performing at this level, the Cardinals can make their way back to the favorites level.
Dallas Cowboys (7-2)
Dallas weathered the absence of Dak Prescott, and now they’re in position to go on a real run over the second half of the year. Their offense has shown flashes of being one of the league’s best units, and when healthy Prescott has been playing at as high a level as any quarterback in the league. If they can find more consistency against a relatively soft schedule over the second half of the season, he has a real shot at an MVP and at leading this team to the best record in the NFC.
This defense still isn’t very good, but with an offense like they have it doesn’t really have to be. There are plenty of places for opposing offenses to attack, but Dallas also boasts attacking threats of their own. Between Randy Gregory, Micah Parsons, and Trevon Diggs they have genuine playmakers at every level of the field. They lack discipline and will give up some big plays, but they will make enough big plays of their own to let their own offense race out ahead.
Buffalo Bills (6-3)
Buffalo is once again near the top of the AFC, but they are doing it in a very different way from a year ago. Last year Josh Allen emerged as an MVP candidate and their offense blitzed opposing teams with a high-octane passing attack. It’s had moments this year when it looked similar, and also entire games where it just fell completely flat. Allen is still closer to what he was last year than to the below-average quarterback he was over his first two seasons, but there has been some regression.
Fortunately for the Bills, their defense has been the best in the league over the first half of the season. Their statistics are inflated somewhat thanks to a stretch of games against truly horrendous offenses, but even when you adjust for strength of opposition it still comes out as a top tier unit. When everything is on, Buffalo has hit a higher peak than any other team in the league this year. If they can get things lined up at the right time, they have the potential to run away from the rest of the NFL.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3)
Tampa Bay is struggling right now. They’ve suffered two straight defeats sandwiched around a bye, and there is really no one place to point the blame. After looking like an MVP front runner for the first two months of the season, Tom Brady has thrown two interceptions in each of these losses. They have barely bothered to run the ball, and when they have tried they haven’t found a lot of success.
Some of this is just bad luck that they should get over, but it’s harder to dismiss the struggles of their defense. Three weeks ago they let a Saints team quarterbacked by Trevor Siemian score 36 points on them. Last week Washington managed to close out the game with a ten-minute touchdown drive. They aren’t getting pressure on the quarterback, which leaves their banged up secondary exposed to be picked apart by mediocre passers.
All that said, I think this team will be fine in the long run. Their defense will get healthier, and their offense will smooth out some rough patches. The Saints are close behind them in the standings, but I’m not concerned about a team stuck with Siemian at quarterback. Tampa Bay should make the playoffs without any concern, and as we saw last year they are perfectly capable of going on a run on the road.
Los Angeles Rams (7-3)
Two straight losses have some people in Los Angeles reaching for the panic button, and it’s hard not to understand at least a little bit. No team except maybe Green Bay has more riding on this season, and any rough patches could spell the end of the franchise’s hopes for the next five years. I’m not as concerned as some people by their recent performances, though I was never as high on this team as many other people were. They’ll have a chance at the end of the year, but they fit better as one of the top tier of teams rather than the true class of the league they’d like to believe they are.
The past two weeks have taken the flaws of this team and laid them bare for everyone else to see. On the defensive side of the ball, their entire philosophy relies on attacking in pass defense first and sacrificing strength against the run. This can be an effective strategy, though it will struggle against teams like San Francisco that are willing to pound away on the ground and work their way down the field four yards at a time.
The key for the Rams is to make sure they get an early lead to keep opposing offenses off schedule, but this relies on their offense running at peak efficiency. Injuries have caused problems with this over the past couple weeks, and Matthew Stafford has only made things worse by reverting to his old habit of pressing and making poor decisions. They have plenty of time to pull things together, and they will still be in position to compete for the Super Bowl at the end of the year. But it’s going to be a harder road than many people thought a couple weeks ago.
How Flawed Is Too Flawed?
Without a clear elite team, there is a lot more hope for some of the more flawed teams in playoff contention. Their roads will be tougher, and the odds are longer. But it isn’t out of the question one of these teams could end up hoisting the trophy at the end of the year.
Tennessee Titans (8-2)
The Titans are in a very strange position. On the one hand, they have the best record in the AFC and mathematically the clearest road to the top seed. On the other, right now they are so beaten down by injuries I’m not sure I’d trust them to win a game against even the weakest competition. Obviously Derrick Henry is a crucial piece of their offense, and it is unclear whether he will be able to make it back at anything resembling full strength this year. Their attempts to replace him with running backs off the street have predictably found little success, and right now their running game looks pretty much dead.
Ryan Tannehill is good enough to win them games even without Henry to distract opposing defenses, but he does need someone to throw to. Both Julio Jones and AJ Brown have been in and out of the lineup with injuries this year, meaning right now their top offensive skill position threats are Jeremy McNichols and Chester Rogers. Combined with an offensive line that has fallen off over the past couple years, Tannehill is suddenly in a position where he has to carry the offense pretty much on his own shoulders.
The Titans still have a clear path to the playoffs. They aren’t at risk of losing their division, and they still have games against Miami and Jacksonville and two against Houston. They could still earn the top seed in the AFC, and if they get healthy they may be the most complete team in the conference. But that is a very big if, and health could render them helpless by the time they get around to facing real competition in the postseason.
New England Patriots (7-4)
The Patriots have come together gradually over the course of the year, and now they look like a genuine threat in the AFC once again. The defense is one of the most dangerous in the league, powered by additions up front in Matthew Judon and Christian Barmore. With playmakers like JC Jackson and Devin McCourty on the back end, they have preyed on the young quarterbacks they have faced recently to lead the league with 18 interceptions, four more than any other team. After a slightly bumpy start to the season, they are sitting on five straight victories with only one of them coming by less than 18 points.
Most of the conversation around them recently has been about Mac Jones, and he has certainly played well. For the most part he is just distributing the ball within the system to open receivers, but he makes a few nice plays each game either moving in the pocket to extend a play or making a precise throw down the field. I’m still a little wary about trusting him in any high leverage situation though. His improvement has tied almost directly to the offensive line in front of him getting healthy and coming together as a unit. When things are kept clean and on schedule, he is perfectly capable of running an offense that doesn’t need him to do much. But it’s almost impossible to go on any sort of run without a quarterback having to step up in a big moment, and that’s always a lot to ask of a rookie.
Kansas City Chiefs (6-4)
The Chiefs have stabilized things somewhat after a rough start of the year, and they are back to being in the lead of the AFC West. There are still some struggles with their offense—Patrick Mahomes is occasionally too reckless, their rebuilt line is figuring out how to mesh with his unique style, Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill have struggles with drops, and there is no reliable third threat in the passing game. But I’ll still bet on the offense pulling it all together and proving to be a real threat against anyone they face come playoff time.
More questions remain about their defense. In the early part of the season they struggled to get opposing teams off the field, which made it difficult for them to establish any rhythm on offense and put more pressure on Mahomes to take chances when he did have the ball. Their solution over the past couple weeks has been to blitz the hell out of opposing quarterbacks. This leaves their questionable secondary vulnerable, but with the firepower they have on the other side of the ball they can afford to give up the occasional big play, if it means they now have the opportunity to take the ball away themselves. Only time will tell if this proves to be a sustainable strategy, but it at least gives the Chiefs some life on defense compared to what they were at the start of the year.
Baltimore Ravens (6-3)
For the past couple years the Ravens have been a run-first team that trusted their defense to keep them in games while they stuck to their plan on offense. That isn’t who they are in 2021. Injuries to running backs and offensive linemen have left them with few reliable options on the ground on offense, and their defense has regularly been picked apart by opposing passing attacks.
This puts a lot more weight on Lamar Jackson. For the most part he has been up to the task this year, but there have still been moments where the Ravens struggle find any identity and consistency on offense. Getting rookie Rashod Bateman more integrated with their offense will help, and I trust John Harbaugh more than most coaches to figure things out. Right now, though, this isn’t a team ready to compete with the top teams in the AFC. We’ll see if they can figure things out over the next couple months before the playoffs start.
Wide Open Does Mean Wide Open, Right?
In a normal year I’d be happy to just write these teams off. I’m pretty close to doing so now anyway. But a lot of weird shit has happened so far, and it’s very likely things will only get stranger over the rest of the season.
Los Angeles Chargers (5-4)
The Chargers should be better than they are. Yes, there are very clear issues with their defense, particularly when it comes to stopping the run. Brandon Staley plays a style that keeps the box light and invites opposing offenses to attack them on the ground, and a couple times this year they’ve run into issues with teams that are very willing to do so. They probably need to be willing to adjust their thinking some on this side of the ball against certain opponents. But simply based on talent there will always be some issues here.
This wouldn’t be as big a deal if the offense was living up to its potential. Rookie first round selection Rashawn Slater has stepped in and become an elite left tackle right away, which patches up the biggest questionmark of a unit that is otherwise loaded with elite talent. With Mike Williams and Keenan Allen on the outside, and the rocket arm of Justin Herbert to get them the ball, they should be airing it out like crazy to score so many points that their issues on defense don’t really matter. Instead they have been bafflingly conservative on offense, rarely trying to stretch the field and taking little advantage of Herbert’s best attributes. If they are going to have any chance this year, they are going to need to radically alter their offensive philosophy and let their young quarterback carry them as far as he can.
Cleveland Browns (5-5)
The Browns hold the crown for the most erratic team in the league this year. Over the past two weeks they have a 25 point victory over Cincinnati and a 38 point loss to New England. They have lost close games against Kansas City, Pittsburgh, and Los Angeles that could easily have gone their way. They’ve also won close games against Minnesota and Denver that could have gone against them as well. Ten weeks into the season they are 5-5, which feels pretty perfect for a team that is either elite or embarrassing depending on the week.
A lot of the blame for this goes to Baker Mayfield, and that is completely fair. Four years into his career it seems that this is simply who he is, a quarterback who swings wildly from one week to the next and takes the entire team with him. This would be more manageable if their defense wasn’t following the same pattern. When their front four faces an inferior offensive line, they tear it apart like it isn’t there and completely suffocate an opposing offense. When they’re faced with any resistance, their talented but young secondary can be blasted open. With the right matchups I could see this Browns team getting hot and going on a run. Alternatively, I could see them completely falling apart down the stretch and ending up far out of the playoff race.
Cincinnati Bengals (5-4)
Cincinnati is a young team that appears to be building something promising. That will keep them hopeful through the rest of the year, even if they fade down the stretch as they appear to be in the process of doing. They suffered two straight embarrassing losses before their bye, and they have some difficult contests ahead that could leave them well outside the playoff picture by the time they reach the end of the year.
But young teams are also unpredictable, and the Bengals have shown the ability to compete with anyone in the league. They are overly reliant on explosive plays on offense, but when those explosive plays show up they can race out to big leads that let their inconsistent defense play the aggressor. It will likely take another year or two before Joe Burrow and this offense are able to iron out these inconsistencies, but development often happens at strange paces in the NFL, and I can’t rule out them pulling it together for a second half burst.
Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3-1)
Over the past few weeks Pittsburgh has found some life on offense, which is about the best that can be hoped for with the husk of Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback and an offensive line completely devoid of talent. They are still well below average, but they are avoiding big mistakes and finding ways to put up some points, which is really the best-case scenario for this unit.
The real potential for improvement in Pittsburgh is on the defensive side of the ball. After fielding a unit that ranked top three in DVOA in each of the past two years, they’ve slid down into the middle of the pack in 2021. They have the potential to be better than they are, and the key will be to generate more turnovers to set up their offense for easy points. A lot depends on the health of TJ Watt and Stephon Tuitt, but if this side of the ball can step up they might be able to put together a little bit of a run.
Carolina Panthers (5-5)
Carolina has already had a roller coaster of a season, and it appears to be continuing on those same tracks heading forward. For the first three weeks they looked like one of the surprise teams of the league, with a young defense that was flying all over the place and surprisingly competent play from Sam Darnold. The former hit some predictable speed bumps due to youth and lack of depth, and the latter was revealed to be a clear illusion. Four straight defeats later, and Carolina looked like a team destined for a top five draft selection.
They’ve stabilized things over the past three weeks with wins over the Falcons and a battered Cardinals team. But that’s not why I have them in this category. They’re here because they have the biggest wild card at this point in the season: Cam Newton. I’m skeptical that Newton will actually revitalize this team, for obvious reasons considering the past few years. He showed a few brief flashes with New England last year, but he hasn’t shown any ability to stay healthy and effective. That said, he is a clear improvement over Darnold, and at least gives the Panthers a chance of getting back to the feisty team they were at the start of the year.
Minnesota Vikings (4-5)
Minnesota is the class of the teams with a losing record at this point in the season. That’s a pretty backhanded compliment, but I’m not sure there’s a better way to address this team this year. Minnesota has had one of the most bizarre starts to a season that I can recall. They have found a way to make every game interesting, losing to Arizona due to a missed last-second field goal and then only beating Detroit by that same margin.
Is there a chance Minnesota can put together a real run? Well, I have a hard time ruling anything out with this team. Their defense has come together after a rough few weeks and is playing at a high level, but they are also decimated by injuries and suffering from age and a lack of depth. By some measures Kirk Cousins is playing as well as any quarterback in the league, but it also rarely translates into actual points on the board. They are the only team in the league to have held at least a 7-point lead in every game. They’ve also turned those leads into deficits in all but one game. I suppose I have to give the Vikings a chance, because it feels unreasonable to make any predictions about this team right now.
