This
is the ninth time I’ve written one of these midseason reviews, and I don’t
think I’ve ever been this baffled by the top of the league. Every time I start
to think a team might actually emerge as a favorite, they go ahead and lose in humiliating
fashion against a far lesser opponent. This year’s championship race feels
completely wide open, which is a good thing for people who like drama and a bad
thing for people like me who have to try to make sense of this. But I’ll do my
best, as I break the top half of the league into the tiers below.
Almost There
This
top tier of teams is made up of the main contenders for the Super Bowl. None of
these teams has separated themselves from the pack, but they all have the
potential to take the next step over the coming weeks.
Green Bay Packers (8-2)
It
would be pretty easy to call Green Bay the favorites right now. They are tied
for the best record in the league, and their win over Arizona gives them the
inside track to a first round bye in the playoffs. Their one bad loss came in
the opening week of the season, and their other defeat was the week they were
forced to start Jordan Love at quarterback. They’ve done this despite missing
David Bakhtiari, Jaire Alexander, and Za’Darius Smith for big chunks of the
season, and they should get all three back sometime soon.
The biggest red flag you can raise about Green
Bay is that they've had a few lucky wins in close games so far, and they have a
fairly tough schedule remaining the rest of the season. I still have some
questions about their offense as well. Aaron Rodgers is not playing at the same
MVP level he was at a year ago, and their repeated attempts to find a reliable
receiver other than Davante Adams have gotten them nowhere. Still, they have
two good running backs, an offensive line that should come together as it gets
healthy, and a solid coaching staff. There aren’t any glaring holes on this
team, which in a year like this sets them apart from every other team.
Arizona Cardinals (8-2)
It’s
been a tough few weeks for Arizona. They lost a game they should have won
against the Packers, and then they suffered even more concerning losses when
Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins went down with injuries. Both should be back
soon, but now the Cardinals find themselves looking at a steeper climb
after being in the driver’s seat of the NFC just a few weeks ago.
Fortunately
for Arizona their remaining schedule is fairly soft, so they still have a
decent chance of claiming the top seed in the conference. If they can get this
and stay healthy, their offensive firepower gives them a chance to beat any
team on any day. Kyler Murray was in the MVP conversation before his injury,
and Kliff Kingsbury has taken real steps this year as a play caller and an
in-game manager. If those two keep performing at this level, the Cardinals can
make their way back to the favorites level.
Dallas Cowboys (7-2)
Dallas
weathered the absence of Dak Prescott, and now they’re in position to go on a
real run over the second half of the year. Their offense has shown flashes of
being one of the league’s best units, and when healthy Prescott has been
playing at as high a level as any quarterback in the league. If they can find
more consistency against a relatively soft schedule over the second half of the
season, he has a real shot at an MVP and at leading this team to the best
record in the NFC.
This
defense still isn’t very good, but with an offense like they have it doesn’t really
have to be. There are plenty of places for opposing offenses to attack, but
Dallas also boasts attacking threats of their own. Between Randy Gregory, Micah
Parsons, and Trevon Diggs they have genuine playmakers at every level of the
field. They lack discipline and will give up some big plays, but they will make
enough big plays of their own to let their own offense race out ahead.
Buffalo Bills (6-3)
Buffalo
is once again near the top of the AFC, but they are doing it in a very
different way from a year ago. Last year Josh Allen emerged as an MVP candidate
and their offense blitzed opposing teams with a high-octane passing attack. It’s
had moments this year when it looked similar, and also entire games where it
just fell completely flat. Allen is still closer to what he was last year than
to the below-average quarterback he was over his first two seasons, but there
has been some regression.
Fortunately
for the Bills, their defense has been the best in the league over the first
half of the season. Their statistics are inflated somewhat thanks to a stretch
of games against truly horrendous offenses, but even when you adjust for
strength of opposition it still comes out as a top tier unit. When everything
is on, Buffalo has hit a higher peak than any other team in the league this
year. If they can get things lined up at the right time, they have the
potential to run away from the rest of the NFL.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3)
Tampa
Bay is struggling right now. They’ve suffered two straight defeats sandwiched
around a bye, and there is really no one place to point the blame. After
looking like an MVP front runner for the first two months of the season, Tom Brady
has thrown two interceptions in each of these losses. They have barely bothered
to run the ball, and when they have tried they haven’t found a lot of success.
Some
of this is just bad luck that they should get over, but it’s harder to dismiss
the struggles of their defense. Three weeks ago they let a Saints team
quarterbacked by Trevor Siemian score 36 points on them. Last week Washington
managed to close out the game with a ten-minute touchdown drive. They aren’t
getting pressure on the quarterback, which leaves their banged up secondary
exposed to be picked apart by mediocre passers.
All
that said, I think this team will be fine in the long run. Their defense will
get healthier, and their offense will smooth out some rough patches. The Saints
are close behind them in the standings, but I’m not concerned about a team
stuck with Siemian at quarterback. Tampa Bay should make the playoffs without
any concern, and as we saw last year they are perfectly capable of going on a
run on the road.
Los Angeles Rams (7-3)
Two
straight losses have some people in Los Angeles reaching for the panic button,
and it’s hard not to understand at least a little bit. No team except maybe
Green Bay has more riding on this season, and any rough patches could spell the
end of the franchise’s hopes for the next five years. I’m not as concerned as
some people by their recent performances, though I was never as high on this
team as many other people were. They’ll have a chance at the end of the year,
but they fit better as one of the top tier of teams rather than the true class
of the league they’d like to believe they are.
The
past two weeks have taken the flaws of this team and laid them bare for
everyone else to see. On the defensive side of the ball, their entire philosophy
relies on attacking in pass defense first and sacrificing strength against the
run. This can be an effective strategy, though it will struggle against teams
like San Francisco that are willing to pound away on the ground and work their
way down the field four yards at a time.
The
key for the Rams is to make sure they get an early lead to keep opposing
offenses off schedule, but this relies on their offense running at peak
efficiency. Injuries have caused problems with this over the past couple weeks,
and Matthew Stafford has only made things worse by reverting to his old habit
of pressing and making poor decisions. They have plenty of time to pull things
together, and they will still be in position to compete for the Super Bowl at
the end of the year. But it’s going to be a harder road than many people
thought a couple weeks ago.
How Flawed Is Too Flawed?
Without
a clear elite team, there is a lot more hope for some of the more flawed teams
in playoff contention. Their roads will be tougher, and the odds are longer.
But it isn’t out of the question one of these teams could end up hoisting the
trophy at the end of the year.
Tennessee Titans (8-2)
The
Titans are in a very strange position. On the one hand, they have the best
record in the AFC and mathematically the clearest road to the top seed. On the
other, right now they are so beaten down by injuries I’m not sure I’d trust
them to win a game against even the weakest competition. Obviously Derrick
Henry is a crucial piece of their offense, and it is unclear whether he
will be able to make it back at anything resembling full strength this
year. Their attempts to replace him with running backs off the street have predictably
found little success, and right now their running game looks pretty much dead.
Ryan
Tannehill is good enough to win them games even without Henry to distract
opposing defenses, but he does need someone to throw to. Both Julio Jones and
AJ Brown have been in and out of the lineup with injuries this year, meaning
right now their top offensive skill position threats are Jeremy McNichols and
Chester Rogers. Combined with an offensive line that has fallen off over the
past couple years, Tannehill is suddenly in a position where he has to carry
the offense pretty much on his own shoulders.
The Titans still have a clear path to the playoffs. They aren’t at
risk of losing their division, and they still have games against Miami and Jacksonville and two against Houston. They could still earn the top
seed in the AFC, and if they get healthy they may be the most complete team in
the conference. But that is a very big if, and health could render them
helpless by the time they get around to facing real competition in the
postseason.
New England Patriots (7-4)
The
Patriots have come together gradually over the course of the year, and now they
look like a genuine threat in the AFC once again. The defense is one
of the most dangerous in the league, powered by additions up front in Matthew
Judon and Christian Barmore. With playmakers like JC Jackson and Devin McCourty
on the back end, they have preyed on the young quarterbacks they have faced
recently to lead the league with 18 interceptions, four more than any other
team. After a slightly bumpy start to the season, they are sitting on five
straight victories with only one of them coming by less than 18 points.
Most
of the conversation around them recently has been about Mac Jones, and he has
certainly played well. For the most part he is just distributing the ball
within the system to open receivers, but he makes a few nice plays each game
either moving in the pocket to extend a play or making a precise throw down the
field. I’m still a little wary about trusting him in any high leverage
situation though. His improvement has tied almost directly to the offensive
line in front of him getting healthy and coming together as a unit. When things
are kept clean and on schedule, he is perfectly capable of running an offense
that doesn’t need him to do much. But it’s almost impossible to go on any sort
of run without a quarterback having to step up in a big moment, and that’s
always a lot to ask of a rookie.
Kansas City Chiefs (6-4)
The
Chiefs have stabilized things somewhat after a rough start of the year, and
they are back to being in the lead of the AFC West. There are still some
struggles with their offense—Patrick Mahomes is occasionally too reckless,
their rebuilt line is figuring out how to mesh with his unique style, Travis
Kelce and Tyreek Hill have struggles with drops, and there is no reliable third
threat in the passing game. But I’ll still bet on the offense pulling it all
together and proving to be a real threat against anyone they face come playoff
time.
More
questions remain about their defense. In the early part of the season they
struggled to get opposing teams off the field, which made it difficult for them
to establish any rhythm on offense and put more pressure on Mahomes to take
chances when he did have the ball. Their solution over the past couple weeks
has been to blitz the hell out of opposing quarterbacks. This leaves their questionable
secondary vulnerable, but with the firepower they have on the other side of the
ball they can afford to give up the occasional big play, if it means they now
have the opportunity to take the ball away themselves. Only time will tell if
this proves to be a sustainable strategy, but it at least gives the Chiefs some
life on defense compared to what they were at the start of the year.
Baltimore Ravens (6-3)
For
the past couple years the Ravens have been a run-first team that trusted their
defense to keep them in games while they stuck to their plan on offense. That
isn’t who they are in 2021. Injuries to running backs and offensive linemen
have left them with few reliable options on the ground on offense, and their
defense has regularly been picked apart by opposing passing attacks.
This
puts a lot more weight on Lamar Jackson. For the most part he has been up to
the task this year, but there have still been moments where the Ravens struggle
find any identity and consistency on offense. Getting rookie Rashod Bateman
more integrated with their offense will help, and I trust John Harbaugh more
than most coaches to figure things out. Right now, though, this isn’t a team
ready to compete with the top teams in the AFC. We’ll see if they can figure
things out over the next couple months before the playoffs start.
Wide Open Does Mean Wide Open, Right?
In a
normal year I’d be happy to just write these teams off. I’m pretty close to
doing so now anyway. But a lot of weird shit has happened so far, and it’s very
likely things will only get stranger over the rest of the season.
Los Angeles Chargers (5-4)
The
Chargers should be better than they are. Yes, there are very clear issues with
their defense, particularly when it comes to stopping the run. Brandon Staley
plays a style that keeps the box light and invites opposing offenses to attack
them on the ground, and a couple times this year they’ve run into issues with
teams that are very willing to do so. They probably need to be willing to
adjust their thinking some on this side of the ball against certain opponents. But
simply based on talent there will always be some issues here.
This
wouldn’t be as big a deal if the offense was living up to its potential. Rookie
first round selection Rashawn Slater has stepped in and become an elite left
tackle right away, which patches up the biggest questionmark of a unit that is
otherwise loaded with elite talent. With Mike Williams and Keenan Allen on the
outside, and the rocket arm of Justin Herbert to get them the ball, they should
be airing it out like crazy to score so many points that their issues on
defense don’t really matter. Instead they have been bafflingly conservative on offense,
rarely trying to stretch the field and taking little advantage of Herbert’s
best attributes. If they are going to have any chance this year, they are going
to need to radically alter their offensive philosophy and let their young
quarterback carry them as far as he can.
Cleveland Browns (5-5)
The
Browns hold the crown for the most erratic team in the league this year. Over
the past two weeks they have a 25 point victory over Cincinnati and a 38 point
loss to New England. They have lost close games against Kansas City, Pittsburgh,
and Los Angeles that could easily have gone their way. They’ve also won close
games against Minnesota and Denver that could have gone against them as well. Ten
weeks into the season they are 5-5, which feels pretty perfect for a team that
is either elite or embarrassing depending on the week.
A
lot of the blame for this goes to Baker Mayfield, and that is completely fair. Four
years into his career it seems that this is simply who he is, a quarterback who
swings wildly from one week to the next and takes the entire team with him. This
would be more manageable if their defense wasn’t following the same pattern.
When their front four faces an inferior offensive line, they tear it apart like
it isn’t there and completely suffocate an opposing offense. When they’re faced
with any resistance, their talented but young secondary can be blasted open.
With the right matchups I could see this Browns team getting hot and going on a
run. Alternatively, I could see them completely falling apart down the stretch
and ending up far out of the playoff race.
Cincinnati Bengals (5-4)
Cincinnati
is a young team that appears to be building something promising. That will keep
them hopeful through the rest of the year, even if they fade down the stretch as
they appear to be in the process of doing. They suffered two straight
embarrassing losses before their bye, and they have some difficult contests
ahead that could leave them well outside the playoff picture by the time they
reach the end of the year.
But
young teams are also unpredictable, and the Bengals have shown the ability to
compete with anyone in the league. They are overly reliant on explosive plays
on offense, but when those explosive plays show up they can race out to big
leads that let their inconsistent defense play the aggressor. It will likely
take another year or two before Joe Burrow and this offense are able to iron
out these inconsistencies, but development often happens at strange paces in the
NFL, and I can’t rule out them pulling it together for a second half burst.
Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3-1)
Over
the past few weeks Pittsburgh has found some life on offense, which is about
the best that can be hoped for with the husk of Ben Roethlisberger at
quarterback and an offensive line completely devoid of talent. They are still well
below average, but they are avoiding big mistakes and finding ways to put up
some points, which is really the best-case scenario for this unit.
The
real potential for improvement in Pittsburgh is on the defensive side of the
ball. After fielding a unit that ranked top three in DVOA in each of the past
two years, they’ve slid down into the middle of the pack in 2021. They have the
potential to be better than they are, and the key will be to generate more
turnovers to set up their offense for easy points. A lot depends on the health
of TJ Watt and Stephon Tuitt, but if this side of the ball can step up they
might be able to put together a little bit of a run.
Carolina Panthers (5-5)
Carolina
has already had a roller coaster of a season, and it appears to be continuing
on those same tracks heading forward. For the first three weeks they looked
like one of the surprise teams of the league, with a young defense that was
flying all over the place and surprisingly competent play from Sam Darnold. The
former hit some predictable speed bumps due to youth and lack of depth, and the
latter was revealed to be a clear illusion. Four straight defeats later, and Carolina
looked like a team destined for a top five draft selection.
They’ve
stabilized things over the past three weeks with wins over the Falcons and a battered
Cardinals team. But that’s not why I have them in this category. They’re here
because they have the biggest wild card at this point in the season: Cam
Newton. I’m skeptical that Newton will actually revitalize this team, for obvious
reasons considering the past few years. He showed a few brief flashes with New
England last year, but he hasn’t shown any ability to stay healthy and
effective. That said, he is a clear improvement over Darnold, and at least gives
the Panthers a chance of getting back to the feisty team they were at the start
of the year.
Minnesota Vikings (4-5)
Minnesota
is the class of the teams with a losing record at this point in the season.
That’s a pretty backhanded compliment, but I’m not sure there’s a better way to
address this team this year. Minnesota has had one of the most bizarre starts
to a season that I can recall. They have found a way to make every game
interesting, losing to Arizona due to a missed last-second field goal and then
only beating Detroit by that same margin.
Is
there a chance Minnesota can put together a real run? Well, I have a hard time
ruling anything out with this team. Their defense has come together after a
rough few weeks and is playing at a high level, but they are also decimated by
injuries and suffering from age and a lack of depth. By some measures Kirk
Cousins is playing as well as any quarterback in the league, but it also rarely
translates into actual points on the board. They are the only team in the
league to have held at least a 7-point lead in every game. They’ve also turned
those leads into deficits in all but one game. I suppose I have to give the
Vikings a chance, because it feels unreasonable to make any predictions about
this team right now.
