2018 Draft Prospects: Running Backs

The relationship between the running back position and the NFL is complicated. A few years ago the popular wisdom was that running backs weren’t worth a first round pick at all, that you could replicate the productivity of a star back with a platoon of midround picks. Yet over the past three years we have seen a reversal of this philosophy, with running backs going in the top ten in each of these drafts (including two last year, if you consider Christian McCaffrey a running back).

People are still skeptical about the value, but it’s hard not to fall in love with some of these prospects. There will almost certainly be another top ten selection this year, even though I don’t think there should be. This class is not as strong at the top as the ones that have come before, though I think there are a couple first round options worth considering on the table.

Sony Michel, Georgia

If you break this year’s running back class down into individual traits, I don’t think there is any area where I would say Michel is the best in the class. There are faster running backs, there are stronger running backs, there are more elusive running backs. There are backs with better vision, and there are backs better as receivers. But Michel stands at the top because he is the most complete back in this year’s draft, a player who can step in right away and contribute on any team in the league.

Michel is the sort of player who always seems to do the right thing on every play. He is light on his feet and can make some devastating cuts, but he never wastes time dancing. He is always working his way forward, finding seams through congested areas and slipping through. He has excellent vision and can cover a lot of ground with a single cut, allowing him to find and attack backside running lanes most backs would never even know about.

Michel is less polished in the passing game than he is as a runner, but he shows promise in that area as well. He can run some nice routes, and he is usually competent in pass protection. More work could turn him into a genuine three down back, though like most running backs he will likely be best used as part of a rotation. Only once over his final two years at Georgia did he eclipse twenty carries in a game, and I do have some concerns about how he would hold up if asked to plow into the line 250 times over the course of a season.

I don’t think Michel will ever be a true superstar as a running back. His speed is good but not game changing, and while he can fight forward for extra yards, he doesn’t really leave tacklers in his wake. He does a good job getting what’s there out of every play, but he doesn’t create yards in the way the best running backs do. In this class that’s enough to make him the top running back, but he isn’t a top twenty player like we’ve seen over the past few years.

Saquon Barkley, Penn State

Everybody knows about Barkley by this point. The combination of his highlight reels and his absurd performance at the Combine have made him the most hyped running back prospect in years, and when the actual draft rolls around he’s all but a lock for a top five selection. And when you watch him in the open field, there is no denying that he’s a one of a kind player. He’s a 233 pound back with breakaway speed and power to match his size, as well as nimble feet and elusiveness that should not be physically possible. He makes tacklers look foolish on a routine basis, and he turns ordinary seven yard gains into explosive plays.

Once he gets into open space Barkley is the best running back in the class. Unfortunately, what he does in tight areas is on the exact opposite end of the spectrum. Barkley spends more time dancing in the backfield than any other running back I can remember watching, usually at the expense of the play that was called. He didn’t have particularly great blocking in front of him in college, but there were times that it was perfectly fine and he would still stop his feet in the backfield, ignoring the hole open in front of him in search of a big play. He very rarely would lower his head and plunge into a congested area, and at times it seemed as if he was almost afraid of trying to get skinny and fall forward for four or five yards.

There are certainly ways to use a prospect like Barkley, as we saw last year with a similar player in Alvin Kamara. Barkley’s hands are occasionally questionable, but he has experience running a variety of routes, both coming out of the backfield and split out as a wide receiver. He is electric on kick returns, and he can be useful on a couple creatively designed gadget plays a game.

But the question is, how much do you value a running back who needs special plays designed to hide his glaring weakness? He’s certainly not the top ten player people talk about him as—he’s not in the same class as Ezekiel Elliott or Todd Gurley—but where is he worth the risk? I’m a big believer in the value of athleticism and betting on player development at the next level, but I’m not sure if the same applies to running backs, a position with a notoriously short career lifespan. In the end I think his upside is still worthy of a first round pick, but I wouldn’t do it until the very end of the first night.

Ronald Jones, USC

Jones is the burner of this year’s class. Don’t bother to look up his forty time from the Combine, since he pulled up with a limp and killed his time. On the field he is an explosion waiting to happen, a flash of speed that can get into the second level and run away from everybody chasing him.

Speed is certainly the most dangerous weapon in Jones’s arsenal, but it’s not the only one. He can set up his bursts with aggressive sideways cuts that allow him to elude defenders and open up a seam downhill. His vision isn’t great, and he will miss some holes that are there (as well as running into some that aren’t), but when he does spot a lane on the backside, he has the physical tools necessary to reach and exploit it. To his credit he isn’t always trying to break a big play, and he is willing to lower his head and fall forward for a short but productive gain.

The biggest drawback with Jones is physicality. He weighs only 205 pounds, and he plays probably even smaller. He makes good use of his off hand to protect himself, but if his stiffarm doesn’t work there’s not much he can do to prevent a tackler from bringing him down. One arm is often enough to stop him in his tracks, and he hasn’t mastered the subtle last second cut to avoid taking contact head on and fall forward.

Speed is always a great weapon to have on offense, and there are lots of creative ways to take advantage of Jones’s skillset. He might be worth snagging at the very end of the first round, though I think he fits better in the second. I don’t think there’s much bust potential here, but I’m not sure there’s more upside than as one piece of a rotational backfield, and it’s hard to justify spending a first round pick on a player who will likely not see the field more than half the time.

Derrius Guice, LSU

Guice has a refreshingly simple style of playing football. He gets the ball in the backfield, and he runs forward until he hits something. Sometimes that something is a defensive lineman standing in the hole, other times it’s the wall in the back of the endzone. In either case, Guice is going to run full speed into whatever is in front of him and smash forward until something brings him to the ground.

There are obviously downsides to this style of play. Guice really doesn’t change direction, and when he tries it usually goes badly. He isn’t the sort of runner you would use with a zone blocking scheme, where he would have to read the play in front of him and make a cut where a hole presents itself. He needs to be told where to go before the play, and if the hole ends up more than a few feet away from where he aimed himself, he will have no choice but to stop his feet in the backfield and hope defenders can’t close in during the distressingly long time it works to get him to full speed again.

In the perfect situation Guice can be a wrecking ball powering a running game down the field with repeated five to ten yard carries. Tacklers bounce off him on a regular basis, and he can even build up some decent speed once he reaches the second level. But he doesn’t offer much in the passing game, and he greatly limits the sort of plays you can call with him in the backfield. Even with his physical gifts, I can’t justify spending a pick on him before the middle of the second round.

Kerryon Johnson, Auburn

I normally shy away from comparing prospects to players already in the NFL, but it is impossible to watch Johnson play and not think about Le’Veon Bell. Bell has an extremely unique style in the way he approaches the line, at times almost completely stopping his feet as he waits for a hole to open up, then exploding through the moment he sees a sliver of daylight. Johnson is one of the few players I’ve seen who truly emulates that style, and at the college level he was able to pull it off to great success.

Right now Bell is the best back in the NFL, but it’s fair to wonder whether Johnson can match his success as well as he does his style. On a purely physical level Johnson is nowhere near Bell, and he is well behind all the other backs I looked at in the draft. Coming out of college Bell outweighed Johnson by 17 pounds, and he put up an incredible time in the 3-cone drill, demonstrating the footwork and burst that became even more dangerous when he reached the NFL and slimmed down to his current weight. Johnson didn’t show nearly as strong a performance in the agility drills, and on the field he doesn’t appear to have the same one step acceleration that has made Bell so dangerous.

I’m really not sure what to make of Johnson. His vision is extraordinary, and if he can learn to harness it in a way that doesn’t leave him standing dead still in the backfield nearly as often he can be a difficult back to contain. His second level speed isn’t great, but he does a very good job maneuvering through tight spaces and falling forward through contact. I think he can develop into a productive back, but it is going to take a couple years, and unlike the players listed above him I can’t really envision enough upside to push him into the first two rounds.

Nick Chubb, Georgia

Chubb’s defining trait is his strength. He is a workout warrior, and his insane performances in the weight room translate to excellent power on the field. He almost always drags tacklers for an extra yard or two, and he’s not afraid to run headfirst into a pile and carry it as far as his legs can take him.

Chubb is at his best running with people draped over him, but he’s a lot less impressive when he’s on his own in open space. It takes him several steps to make any sort of change of direction, and approaching the line he has trouble seeing and reaching the hole if it isn’t straight in front of him. He gets up to top speed pretty quickly, but top speed for him isn’t all that fast, and he is frequently caught from behind when he reaches the second level. And unlike Guice who I discussed above, he has fairly poor balance and footwork when it comes to absorbing low hits, and a lot of his carries end with him tripped up by the ankles.

You would think a player like Chubb would be able to carve out a role as a short yardage back, but he was surprisingly ineffective in those situations in college. On a first and ten he’ll happily slam into a gap and plunge forward for a short gain, but when things are congested by a short yardage defense he seems to have trouble finding a hole to hit, leading to him stopping his feet in the backfield. The tools are there, and he only needs his vision to improve a little bit to be useful in these situations. But right now the thing he is best suited for is not something he is actually good at, and it’s hard to justify making that kind of player a pick in the first two days.

2018 Draft Prospects: Cornerbacks

The NFL Draft is now officially one month away. For you the excitement may just be beginning, but for me the draft has taken up a huge chunk of my free time for the past month and a half. As I’ve done the past few years, I chose roughly sixty of the top prospects to look at this year, watching three games of each in order to form my opinions of the players likely to go in the first round of the draft.

As I’ve done in the past, I will be ranking each of these players within their position groups, starting today with the cornerbacks. The players below are listed in the order I would select them, accompanied by summaries of their strengths, weaknesses, and potential. I factor in both film and athletic numbers for these rankings, and I am generally a big fan of athletic upside when it comes to the draft.

There’s one more thing I would like to call attention to before I dive in. For most of the players I will try to give some sense of where they deserve to go in the draft, whether that’s a top five selection, a mid-second round prospect, or the latter stages of the first round. A key thing to keep in mind when you see this is that these descriptions are based not just on this year’s draft class but on every class I have studied. This is a particularly weak year at the top of the draft, and I don’t believe there are ten worthy top ten caliber players, or twenty top twenty, or thirty-two first rounders. So keep that in mind when the time rolls around for me to post my mock draft, when I’ll have no choice but to select players higher than they truly deserve to go.

And now, without further ado, the first position group of my 2018 Draft breakdown: the cornerbacks.

Denzel Ward, Ohio State

There are a lot of things to like about Ward’s game. His athleticism is immediately evident, both on the field and in workouts. At the Combine he ran a 4.32 forty and put up 39 inches on the vertical, speed and explosiveness that translate to tracking receivers over the field. He doesn’t allow himself to get beaten over the top, and he closes hard on underneath routes. He allows a few more catches than you’d like to see, and he could be even better if he put on some strength to play with physicality at the catch point. But even when the ball beats him there he is almost always immediately on the receiver to make the tackle, eliminating any yards after the catch.

Ward didn’t do any of the agility tests at the Combine, but if he had he likely would have excelled there as well. His balance is excellent, and he mirrors receivers with precision off the snap. He has experience playing both on the outside and in the slot, and there will be a role for him on any team immediately in the NFL. He can play in zone, but he’s at his best in man to man, tracking receivers through congested patches of field and matching them stride for stride and cut for cut.

All that said, there are very clear holes in Ward’s game, holes that I don’t think he is every likely to fill. He doesn’t have the elite size that has become popular in recent years in the NFL, and he doesn’t challenge receivers physically on their routes. He never gets his head around to find the ball, and good receivers can make catches against him even when they’re covered.

Ward is the best cornerback in the draft, but that’s as much about the class as it is about him. He isn’t at the same level as someone like Jalen Ramsey or Marshon Lattimore that we’ve seen come out over the past couple years, and I don’t see him ever becoming more than an above average starter in the NFL. There’s definitely value for him, but I’m not sure I see him as a top 20 player.

Mike Hughes, UCF

Hughes doesn’t boast the remarkable athleticism of Ward, but he brings a similar level of polish. He is light on his feet and extremely flexible, and there is never a moment where he looks truly out of control in coverage. When a receiver tries to blow past him over the top, he is able to flip his hips without any wasted motion, keeping stride for stride with all but the fastest receivers down the field. He uses the sideline as a tool to hem in receivers, and he sticks with men crossing the middle so he’s in position to break in front of them and knock away the pass.

Hughes is sound in coverage, but the issues present themselves either at the line or at the point of the catch. He can get pushed around physically when he tries to challenge the release of receivers, and if he gets knocked off balance he doesn’t have the speed necessary to recover. Wary about being beaten over the top, he will give some passes up underneath, and he doesn’t have the same closing speed that makes Ward so effective. He’s a poor tackler—but to his credit, a willing one—and it’s easy to imagine a team baiting him underneath until they can break one for a longer play.

The athletic limitations will restrict Hughes’s ceiling, but I have no doubt he’ll be a quality starting cornerback in the league. He shows a good understanding of route design and combinations, and he can comfortably slide right away into any scheme. He’s a good pickup late in the first round, for a team that wants a ready to contribute piece and is okay sacrificing a little long term upside.

Josh Jackson, Iowa

Over the past couple years some of the best cornerbacks in the NFL have been players who converted from wide receiver during their time in college. Richard Sherman and Xavier Rhodes are big, physical players who attack the ball in the air as if they believe it’s theirs. Jackson isn’t quite in that some mold physically, but he has a similar background as a wide receiver, and it shows up in his aggressiveness and ability to make plays to take the ball away from the offense.

There is a lot of upside with Jackson, but there is a lot of downside too. He is still incredibly raw in coverage, and it shows up when he is asked to play tight at the line. He opens his hips far too early on vertical releases, and he doesn’t have elite closing speed to stop underneath routes. And he lets receivers cross his face with no real contest, often turning the wrong way and giving the offense an easy completion over the middle of the field.

It is going to take some time for Jackson to harness his potential, but he can still contribute as he develops. He will be beaten regularly over his first couple years, but he can also turn the game around with a timely interception. He is always looking to jump an underneath route in zone, and when he’s matched up man to man he is able to make freakishly athletic plays to steal the ball out of the air. And with an excellent performance at the Combine (aside from a 4.56 forty that doesn’t reflect his speed on the field), he showed that he has the ability to develop into the best cornerback in the class, even if it comes with risks that would make me wary about picking him before the end of the first round.

Carlton Davis, Auburn

Davis is either a coach’s dream cornerback or their worst nightmare, depending on what they want out of the position. If they’re looking for someone to match receivers step for step and track them across the field, Davis isn’t their guy. He isn’t particularly nimble, and he will struggle his entire career with smaller, quicker receivers. There is no way he can play in the slot, and quarterbacks with good timing on back shoulder throws will be able to eat him alive underneath if he can’t disrupt the route. He doesn’t stop well, and his closing speed is subpar, meaning any separation the receiver can generate is likely to result in a catch.

But if a coach is looking for someone to get physical with receivers on the outside and disrupt the entire timing of an offense, Davis may be the best I’ve seen in five years of doing this. He routinely makes wide receivers look like they’re made of paper, stacking them up at the line and preventing them from ever getting into their routes. He is insanely strong and uses his long arms to their full advantage, at times straight up shoving receivers out of bounds to erase them from the play.

Obviously a player this physical will need some time to adjust to the NFL’s more stringent rules. He also needs to get better at finding the ball in the air and making a play on it as it arrives. But he has the skills to grow in this last area, with long arms and good recognition of when a receiver is going for the catch. He is also physical enough that at times receivers can’t even gather their balance enough to make a play on the ball.

Davis needs to go to a team that will use him properly, and give him time to adjust to his new situation. A bunch of teams shouldn’t even consider selecting him, not when there are similarly talented and better suited players on the board. But for a handful of other teams he may be exactly what they’re looking for, a bargain to be found early in the second round.

Isaiah Oliver, Colorado

There are a lot of pieces that go into playing cornerback, but very often it comes down to what a player does at the point of the catch. Excellent coverage can be erased by failing to knock the ball out of the air, while long arms and well timed leaps can make a bad play look great. Oliver is a player who often falls into the latter category. He can be beaten in coverage, but he has the ability to make plays to erase these mistakes.

Speed is one issue that Oliver regularly faces. He ran only 4.5 in the forty yard dash, and this shortcoming shows up on the field, where he struggles at times to get his hips flipped around and can be outrun over the top. He doesn’t explode downhill in the way the best cornerbacks do, though he has good anticipation and understanding of route concepts to make up for this, often making his break before the ball is even thrown. He’s an extremely smart cornerback, and he is rarely beaten by double moves.

At the point of the catch is where he excels, though he has some work to clean up there as well. He can get too physical with receivers, and he will draw some flags simply due to body to body contact. But he’ll avoid other penalties by consistently getting his head around and finding the ball, and more often than not making plays to knock it out of the air. With some refinement and in the right scheme he can become a well above average cornerback, even if he doesn’t have the skills to consistently lock down an opposing receiver.

Jaire Alexander, Louisville

Alexander is another that you will either love or hate depending on what you want from a cornerback. In fact the order I’ve placed the last three likely says more about my preferences for the  position than it does about the players themselves. Davis, Oliver, and Alexander all belong somewhere in the early second round, and whichever is taken first is ultimately a reflection of what the drafting team wants from the position, not the talent of the player.

Alexander is in a lot of ways the opposite player of Davis. He’s small, but he is incredibly quick, able to match the breaks of the opposing receivers as quickly as they make them. He impressed at the Combine with a 4.38 forty, but that speed doesn’t always show up on the field, where he is vulnerable to being beaten over the top. He can occasionally get physical with receivers, but mostly this is just to knock them off their route for a step or two, before they recover and move on.

Alexander is a bit undersized at only 5-10 with short arms, and it’s possible to complete passes over the top of him. He doesn’t time his jumps particularly well, though he does a good job playing around receivers to swat away passes over the middle of the field. He plays with too much aggression and can be badly burned by double moves, something that I’m not sure even coaching will fix at the next level. A very mixed bag as a player, the upside is undoubtedly there, but there are clear limitations and questions that prevent him from joining the top prospects in this class.