The Replacement Superstars

Injuries suck. This isn’t news to anyone, and football fans have long since become accustomed to the heavy toll the season can take on players. No sport in the world is more physically devastating than football, and at this point everyone understands and accepts that there is going to be attrition throughout the season.

Football fans have learned to deal with injuries, but it does seem like we’re off to a particularly brutal start to the season. Six weeks in we’ve seen major injuries suffered by several of the biggest stars in the league, and it has definitely put a damper on the rest of the season. We have eleven more weeks to go with no JJ Watt, no Odell Beckham, and likely no Aaron Rodgers. And though I still love football and will watch every minute that is televised, it’s hard not to be a little subdued at the thought of missing all of these stars.

Fortunately, the NFL is in the business of making stars. With 53 players on 32 teams, there are nearly 1700 active players in the NFL, more than any reasonable person (or me) could conceivably keep track of. There are stars waiting to break out, and the absence of these established players could give them the opportunity to step into the limelight.

Injured Star: David Johnson

Next in Line: Alvin Kamara

Johnson was one of the first big stars to go down, suffering a wrist injury in Arizona’s opening game. And while he may be back sometime towards the end of the season, it may be too little and too late for one of the league’s most dynamic running backs to help.

Fortunately, Johnson is just the forefront of the league’s incoming wave of young, versatile running backs. And it isn’t a coincidence that the player who will bump Adrian Peterson out of the starting lineup when he comes back is so similar to the player that sent Peterson to the Cardinals in the first place. A third round pick out of Tennessee, Kamara quickly impressed the coaches in New Orleans and earned his place in one of the most dynamic offenses in the NFL, and his role is only going to grow as he gets more comfortable with the Saints offense.

Johnson has developed into one of the best running backs in the league with a combination of two major strengths: breakaway speed at the second level and natural skill as a receiver. Kamara possesses both these skills as well, even if he goes about things in a slightly different way than Johnson.

Three inches shorter and ten pounds lighter, Kamara doesn’t look like a wide receiver in the way Johnson does, but he has all the skills needed to play the position. He regularly lines up wide for the Saints, and through five games his rushing and receiving numbers are eerily close to each other (25 carries for 158 yards and 1 TD, 24 receptions for 159 yards and 1 TD). And while he hasn’t busted off any 50 plus yard plays yet, it feels like it’s only a matter of time before he breaks one loose and adds an extra dimension to what is already one of the best offenses in the NFL.

Injured Star: Julian Edelman

Next in Line: Christian McCaffrey

This is a bit tongue in cheek to select McCaffrey as the heir apparent to Edelman, but there are similarities beyond just their grittiness and work ethic. For years now Edelman has been one of the premier slot receivers in the league. His combination of quickness and effortless chemistry with Tom Brady has made him nearly impossible to defend, and the Patriots offense has clearly suffered from his absence. They have been forced to throw the ball down the field significantly more, leaving Brady exposed to the sort of hits and dangerous passes he has avoided in the past.

The Panthers are a team trying to work in the opposite direction. They have placed an incredible load on Cam Newton since the moment he entered the league, and after their offense fell to pieces a year ago they decided to make a change. Officially McCaffrey is a running back, but in the early stages of his career he has been much more effective as a receiver. His 37 receptions have gone for 293 yards and two touchdowns, while his 38 carries have accounted for only 104 yards and no scores.

McCaffrey hasn’t been able to get going on the ground, but his skills as a receiver have revitalized Carolina’s offense. Newton now has an easy target he can hit on any play, forcing defenses to give more respect to the quick pass and opening options up down the field. After a shaky start to the season, Carolina is sitting near the top of the NFC playoff race, and Newton’s life will only get easier as he develops more chemistry with his shifty do-everything weapon.

Injured Star: Aaron Rodgers

Next in Line: Dak Prescott

It isn’t actually possible to find an under the radar quarterback, so excuse me if I decide to highlight one of the highest profile players in the league. Prescott is coming off of a stellar rookie season, one that even earned him some MVP buzz, but he wasn’t without his detractors coming into the year. A season ago Prescott was dropped into the best possible situation for a rookie quarterback, surrounded by dangerous weapons and behind an excellent offensive line. He responded by putting up remarkable numbers in the most conservative fashion possible, and many questioned how he would perform when everything around him wasn’t working perfectly.

Just looking at the numbers you would say he’s taken a step back in 2017. He’s already thrown as many interceptions as he did his entire rookie season, and both his completion percentage and yards per attempt have suffered major drops. Through five games the Cowboys have more losses than wins, and they are 2.5 games back of division rival Philadelphia and fellow second year quarterback Carson Wentz, who is now one of the favorites to take home MVP.

But beneath all of this, Prescott has quietly been better than he was a year ago. The offensive line has struggled, and the defense has put him in a lot of tough situations, and more often than not he has stepped up. He has been much more aggressive than he was a year ago, and he is now making plays with his arm where he would have happily thrown the ball away last season. The biggest questions about Prescott have been answered with an emphatic “Yes he can”, and it is only a matter of time before the results follow his performance.

When Rodgers is on, there is no one else in the league like him. He has an ability to escape pressure and make big plays out of nothing that nobody in the league can match. Prescott’s improvisational skills still need a lot of work to get to that point, but a year after posting the statistically greatest rookie season in history by an NFL quarterback, he has only gotten more dynamic. And in a league filled with boring checkdown artists like Brady, Alex Smith, and Derek Carr, we need more players like Rodgers and Prescott taking regular shots down the field.

Injured Star: JJ Watt

Next in Line: Calais Campbell

 

Unlike most of the other names on this list, Campbell isn’t an up and coming young player. He’s 31 years old, and he’s been in the league since 2008. He made two Pro Bowls and was twice selected second team All-Pro. Campbell is good, and everyone has known about it for years.

But in his first year away from Arizona, Campbell has finally gotten the opportunity to put up numbers to match his talents. Over the course of nine years with the Cardinals Campbell was asked to dominate in a grim, unspectacular role, eating blockers on the inside while his defense overwhelmed the opponent with creative and unpredictable blitzes. He put up good numbers, but he never reached double digit sacks, and his talent wasn’t appreciated by those who followed games only through the box scores.

Through six games with the Jaguars, Campbell is only one sack away from matching his career high. He has become as unstoppable as a pass rusher as we all assumed he could be, on a defense that has freed him to make the most of his opportunities. The Jaguars have so much talent on that side of the ball that they can unleash anyone on any given play, and it’s almost impossible for opposing offenses to hone in on Campbell.

Campbell certainly won’t be able to replicate the dominance of Watt (because Watt is arguably the best defensive player of all time), and it remains to be seen if he can even keep up what he’s done so far. Jacksonville has brutalized every passer they’ve faced, but they haven’t been able to stop the run, and they may have to adjust their style to get more balance as the year goes along. But whatever comes of this, these first six weeks have been a refreshing reminder of just how great Campbell has been throughout his career.

Injured Star: Odell Beckham Jr

Next in Line: Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen

Is it a cheat to select two players for this? Maybe it is, but Beckham possesses a combination of talent, personality, and media market that really comes around only once in a generation, and it’s impossible to see any single player filling his role. So let’s pick a pair of teammates who have emerged from relative obscurity to become arguably the most dynamic receiving duo in the NFL.

Both these players have had very interesting but very different paths to the NFL. Diggs was one of the top recruits in the nation who turned down several major programs to stay near home at Maryland, a decision he likely came to regret after three years of injuries and wretched quarterback play dropped him to the fifth round of the draft. He broke onto the scene as a rookie and has continued to impress, held back only by injury issues that have hampered him throughout his first three seasons, including keeping him out of last week’s game.

Diggs’s path to the NFL was straightforward compared to Thielen’s. He was barely even wanted by Division II program Minnesota State, and even after a stellar college career he went undrafted and had to spend a year on the practice squad before getting his chance to join the team. He broke out late last year and hasn’t really stopped, now sitting fourth in the league with 488 yards receiving through six weeks.

Diggs and Thielen are putting up numbers like Beckham, and they also sometimes look like him on the field as well. They are dangerous down the field threats, both ranking in the top six in 20+ yard gains. They have excellent hands in contested catch situations, and they are both capable of making some spectacular receptions. Minnesota’s quarterback situation is still shaky, but when either Teddy Bridgewater or Sam Bradford makes it back, the Vikings have the potential to put together one of the most exciting and dynamic passing games in the league.

Bottom of the Barrel

We are five weeks into the NFL season, and so far we certainly can’t say that everything is going as we expected. The Jaguars and Bills both have winning records. The Giants have yet to win a game. Pittsburgh’s offense can’t score, and New England’s defense can’t stop anyone. Somehow Kansas City has become the most explosive and innovative offense in the league, on the way to becoming the clear Super Bowl favorite at this point in the season.

And yet, all of these things have some explanations that are reasonable to tack on in retrospect. Buffalo and Jacksonville are loaded with talent on defense, making up for some glaring holes on offense. New York’s defense was due to regress after making a major leap a year ago, and they really don’t have anything on offense besides Odell Beckham (who has already missed a game and is now out for the season). And while Pittsburgh and New England were expected to run away with the AFC, it’s easy to blame their struggles on an aging Ben Roethlisberger and an utter lack of talent in the Patriots front seven, both of which have left the door wide open for the Chiefs.

There are some weird things happening in the NFL, but through the first quarter of the season no two teams perplexed me more than the Cleveland Browns and the New York Jets. Neither of these teams were expected to be competitive this year (according to Odds Shark they were tied with San Francisco for the worst preseason odds in the league at 300-1), and I certainly didn’t have either pegged as a playoff team. But I did have expectations for each of these teams, expectations that haven’t come to fruition so far.

The Browns have been a laughingstock since reentering the league in 1999, but after bottoming out with a 1-15 record last year I thought they would start to trend up. They have collected a lot of talented young players over the past couple drafts, and they made major investments in free agency this year. I predicted them to win 7 games and finish second in the AFC North.

The Jets on the other hand appeared to be moving in the opposite direction. They didn’t have much on their team a year ago, and what they did have they tore down, leaving them with as barren a roster as I have ever seen. I had them pegged to finish 1-15, and even that felt optimistic.

Well four weeks into the season the Jets had already surpassed that win total, and the Browns looked like they were on their way to falling far short of my prediction. Week in and week out I keep expecting Cleveland to show some sign of progress, and they keep letting me down despite a ridiculously easy schedule to start the season.

As luck would have it, these two teams played each other in week five. So I set my DVR up to record the game, and I came back and watched every play to answer two of the biggest mysteries plaguing me to this point in the season: why hasn’t Cleveland improved, and how the hell are the Jets winning games?

New York Jets

The Jets are bad. Let’s make that clear. Through five weeks they have more wins than losses, but they are still very, very bad.

I didn’t watch much of their games against the Dolphins or the Jaguars, but I can say for a fact that they were the worse team on the field against Cleveland. They were thoroughly outplayed the entire game, and the fact that they ended up with more points on the scoreboard says more about the randomness of the NFL than it does about their team.

I’m not even sure where to begin with the Jets. We could start with Josh McCown, who has absolutely no interest in throwing the ball more than ten yards down the field. Every single pass he attempts is a checkdown, to a group of receivers with no ability to create yards after the catch. They aren’t much better in the ground game, and they spent most of the game against Cleveland moving the ball in three yard chunks and then punting on fourth and short.

New York’s skill position players are abysmal, and their offensive line is nearly as bad. Over and over the Browns had players coming unblocked into the backfield, and more often than not McCown responded by blindly chucking the ball far enough from any receiver that even defenders couldn’t catch it. He does deserve credit for avoiding turnovers, and the takeaway disparity was ultimately what won New York this game.

The Jets have had a terrible offense for years, and even though this is likely rock bottom, it isn’t anything new or surprising. It is a little bit strange to see them field a defense this bad. They have no pass rush whatsoever, and they are strangely ineffective stuffing up the run as well. Muhammad Wilkerson has disappeared, and Leonard Williams hasn’t taken the next step many expected after his stellar second season. The bigger problem is likely their linebacker corps, but the absence of superstar play on the defensive line is certainly being felt.

That isn’t to say the Jets are completely lost. I looked at this roster prior to the season, and it was probably the ugliest football team I have ever seen assembled. Outside of Williams and Wilkerson I didn’t see a single player I considered to be an above average starter, and they didn’t even really have young talent I was intrigued to watch. First round pick Jamal Adams has played extremely well and exceeded my expectations, but the real difference for the Jets has been the contribution from a few veterans they picked up for nothing.

Joining Adams in the secondary is former top ten pick Morris Claiborne, a cornerback who could never stay healthy for the Cowboys but is now shining on a one year prove it deal. He had an excellent interception that set up New York’s first touchdown, which was thrown to fellow castoff Austin Seferian-Jenkins. Seferian-Jenkins isn’t good by any means, but he is better than the hollow shell that trotted out for Tampa Bay, and at 6-7 he gives this offense a target that even McCown can hit.

The preseason trade of Sheldon Richardson made a lot of waves for Seattle, but few people discussed the Jets end of things. They certainly didn’t pay much attention to Jermaine Kearse, a middle of the pack wide receiver who seemed like mostly a throw in with a second round pick. Kearse has been excellent this season, on pace to blow past his career highs in every receiving category. He had the other touchdown for the Jets this week on a well sold double move that left him wide open trotting into the endzone.

The Jets are terrible, and yet they’ve won three games, a reminder of why it is so hard to tank in the NFL. This team was built to lose as many games as possible, but every sport carries more than a little bit of randomness, and in a 16 game season that randomness can produce broad swings in outcomes. I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Jets lose their final eleven games, but even if that happens they may be out of the running for the top selection in the draft.

Cleveland Browns

The Browns are going to be the death of me. I went into this expecting to find reasons why the Browns were so terrible. I expected to see everything I had predicted before the season fall to pieces, and I expected to come out of this with any hope for the future of this team stripped away. And yet, somehow, that wasn’t the case.

Let’s run through some of the reasons I was optimistic about the Browns coming into the season. The biggest reason was the young talent they’ve added. They had three first round picks this year, and they used them on three sensational athletes, headlined by first overall selection Myles Garrett and bolstered by impressive tight end David Njoku and intriguing athlete Jabrill Peppers. In addition to this, they grabbed high upside quarterback Deshone Kizer in the second round and made him their day one starter. These young pieces combined with a big money offensive line convinced me that they could have a dangerous offense as early as this season.

It isn’t that big a surprise to me that this defense has struggled. They have several good pieces up front, but the game against the Jets was the first for Garrett, and though he was excellent when he was on the field, he was still limited somewhat by injury as they work him into a full time role. The pieces on the back end are more concerning, especially with Jamie Collins out with a concussion. But the truth is, they held the Jets in check for almost the entire game, surrendering only a field goal and a touchdown on a short field in the first three quarters.

The biggest problem for the Browns in this game was offense, which is the story I heard before I even started watching the game. Cleveland failed to score any points in the first half, and they benched Kizer for second year player Kevin Hogan at halftime. I came into this expecting to see a dismal performance from Kizer, behind an offensive line still struggling to figure out their chemistry. But this wasn’t the case.

First off, the offensive line. I am one of many people who preach the importance of continuity on the offensive line, so maybe I should have been a bit more cautious jumping all over a unit adding two new starters in free agency. And there were certainly some bumps in this game, particularly in the rushing attack. They didn’t always handle their combo blocks well, and at times New York’s athletic linebackers were able to shoot into the backfield to make a play for a loss. There are certainly some issues to iron out, and right now this line is not living up to their pricetag.

But just because they aren’t performing to my high expectations doesn’t mean they’re bad. Whoever the Browns had at quarterback, he was almost always given the time he needed to sit in the pocket. Cleveland has built a wall along the front, and it will only get better as they get more reps together. The offensive line is a minor strength right now, and I am confident it will become one of the best in the league by the end of this season.

So the question becomes, why has Cleveland failed to move the ball, particularly on the ground? Isaiah Crowell is putting up only 3.1 yards per carry, after averaging 4.8 behind a significantly worse line a year ago.

In this case, I think the blame has to go to the runner. There were certainly holes available for Crowell, and his failure to exploit them highlights major issues with him as a starting running back. He is the sort of player who is good in messy situations, picking up a yard or two through contact and finishing forward in tight spots. A lot of running backs struggle to create when nothing is there, but Crowell struggles when there is something there. He doesn’t do anything on the second level, and he will occasionally even miss a running lane altogether, making life even more difficult for the men blocking in front of him.

Cleveland’s most effective running back has been Duke Johnson, but unfortunately he also happens to be their most effective receiver. Cleveland is barren of talent on the outside of well, due to another injury to Corey Coleman and the disappearance of Kenny Britt (who was quietly very good for the Rams last year). The receivers they do have are seriously lacking in speed and playmaking ability, and they often look lazy as well, rounding off simple routes and making no effort to improvise when the play breaks down.

And that brings us back to Kizer. It’s easy enough to point to this and say that he had a bad game. He finished 8 for 17 passing with no touchdowns and an interception, his fourth straight game with less than 50% completion and more interceptions than touchdowns. The Browns failed to score with him in the game, then put up 17 points in the second half when Hogan took over. And while I won’t argue that Kizer has been good so far, it isn’t fair to point the finger and say that he’s the problem with this offense.

Kizer did a lot of good things against the Jets. He showed the sort of arm strength and touch that made him my second favorite quarterback prospect in the draft, while also making plays with his legs to keep the offense moving. The Browns moved the ball pretty much at will in the first half, only to be doomed by a pair of missed field goals and two turnovers inside the ten yardline (these were both primarily Kizer’s fault, so this isn't necessarily an argument in his defense).

The offense around Kizer is atrocious, both in the skill position talent and the design of the coaching staff. Most coaches with a young quarterback do everything they can to make his life easy (see the clinic of play action and bootlegs the Bears put Mitch Trubisky through on Monday). The Browns on the other hand have decided to throw everything at Kizer at once, opening up an aggressive down the field passing attack that leaves him vulnerable to costly negative plays.

The frustrating thing was watching how the offense changed when Hogan came in. After four and a half weeks putting Kizer in an impossible situation, they greatly simplified the offense for their other young quarterback. They switched to a lot of quick hitting underneath routes to take advantage of New York’s soft coverage, and they even included a handful of read option plays, which would be deadly with Kizer’s elite athleticism.

There were still plenty of problems for Kizer. He missed some throws that he absolutely has to make, he always seemed half a second late on timing routes (though his arm was usually strong enough to make up for it), and he had a habit of bailing out of the pocket as soon as his first read was covered. But these are all common rookie mistakes, the same things you’ve seen this year from Trubisky and Deshaun Watson. The difference is that these teams have some actual talent (or the Texans do, at least), and they have coaching staffs willing to simplify things for the sake of their young passers.

The Browns have announced that they are making the switch to Hogan as their starting quarterback, a decision I can’t reasonably back up. Kizer was every bit as good as Hogan on Sunday, and despite the point totals, the Browns offense was just as functional with him taking the snaps. The talent I saw before the season is still here, and I still think Cleveland has a bright future. But I am worried about their coaching staff, and how this talent will develop in an organization that remains toxic from the top to the bottom.