2017 Week Seventeen

Week 17 has arrived, which means it’s time for another of my annual traditions. The playoff race is nearing its end, and for several teams this final week will make or break their season. Fifteen games are in the book, and it all comes down to this last week.

Of course, for even more teams this final week means absolutely nothing. Seven of the eight divisions have been clinched, and we’re left with six teams fighting for three playoff slots. The vast majority of matchups this weekend have nothing at stake.

But football is football, and there is always a reason to watch. So, without further ado, here are the games this weekend that have no impact on the playoff field, and why you should watch them anyway.

Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions

The Detroit Lions haven’t had a 100 yard rusher since 2013. This is one of the most remarkable streaks in the NFL, and it shows no indication of ending anytime soon. Earlier this year Ameer Abdullah twice became the first Lions to eclipse 80 yards since 2014, but he’s since been demoted to a backup role, receiving only seven carries in the past two games. Their primary running back now appears to be Tion Green, an undrafted rookie out of Cincinnati.

On the other side we have the Green Bay Packers, a team that has thoroughly given up on the 2017 season. Most of their roster will sit out of this game with injuries, and their defense has hardly been stout, already giving up 100 yard rushing games in the month of December to the likes of Isaiah Crowell and Peyton Barber. I doubt this week will be the one to end the streak, but it very well could be, and if Green is hovering around 80 yards late in the game it might be worth flipping over to watch this rare event.

Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts

These two rosters are exhausting to look at, stripped down to basically nothing by injuries. Neither of these teams was particularly deep to begin with, and they were both basically dead in the water when we learned their franchise quarterbacks were done for the season. Houston at least has some positives to build on as it closes out 2017, while the Colts limp to another season with no hope except the potential for Andrew Luck to carry them on his shoulders again next year.

Neither of these teams is good, so rather than focus on the teams let’s look at a couple individual players on Houston’s side. DeAndre Hopkins and Jadeveon Clowney have done their best to ride through an otherwise miserable season, two of the league’s premier athletes performing ridiculous feats on an almost weekly basis. These two players are an example of how even among the best athletes on the planet a few can stand above the rest, and if you watch them through this game I guarantee you’ll see two or three plays that simply leave you speechless.

Washington Redskins @ New York Giants

This is one of the harder games to come up with any reason to watch. Yeah, the futures of Eli Manning and Kirk Cousins will be heavily talked about this offseason, but we’ve all seen more than enough from those two quarterbacks, and another game from them won’t change anyone’s opinion.

So instead let’s focus on a player who will spend most of the afternoon chasing after one of these quarterbacks. Ryan Kerrigan is one of the most underappreciated players in the league, a consistently excellent pass rusher who never quite makes it into the conversation of the elites in the league. But he has put up at least 7.5 sacks every year since entering the NFL, and in 2017 he hit double figures for the third time in the past four seasons. He’s the sort of player who ten years down the road we’ll see near the top of the career sacks list and ask ourselves how he can be that high. So enjoy him now, because one day you’ll find yourself asking, “Was he really that good?”

Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles

Is Dez Bryant actually good? That’s a surprisingly reasonable question, and not one we would have thought we’d be asking ourselves two years ago. But barring a big game against the Eagles, Bryant is going to finish short of 1000 yards for the third straight season, and it’s worth wondering if he’s still the game changing threat he was earlier in his career. He’s now gone 23 games without eclipsing 100 yards, despite still ranking 11^th in the league in targets this year.

Try to watch Bryant even on plays when the ball doesn’t come his way. Ever since a broken foot limited to nine games in 2015 he has not looked like the same player. His explosiveness simply looks gone, robbing him of the ability to separate with anything other than sheer physical strength. Cornerbacks no longer fear him beating them over the top, and the windows he gives Prescott are too small for the cautious quarterback to risk. If Bryant can’t rediscover his old form, this fundamentally changes the shape of Dallas’s offense going forward, and forces them to consider how they will reshape a wide receiver group they already have a lot of money invested in.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos

This is the last chance for Paxton Lynch. If the NFL was a meritocracy, he wouldn’t get this chance. Though if the NFL was a meritocracy, he wouldn’t have gotten a first chance to begin with. But because he was a first round pick, the Broncos have to do their due diligence and give him every opportunity to prove himself worthy of the investment, even if two years of practice and several games of action have been enough to clearly show he isn’t.

In a way it would probably be better for the Broncos if he plays abysmally. While it would definitely be nice not to give up on a first round selection after two years, a strong performance by Lynch will remove what little clarity exists in Denver’s offseason. Right now they know they need to invest in a quarterback—through the draft or through free agency—and I don’t think there’s any reason to believe that Lynch will be the answer next year. But a good performance could muddy the waters, and make life a lot more complicated for the Broncos front office.

San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams

We’ve all heard plenty of talk about Jimmy Garoppolo, but how many people have actually watched him play? There certainly weren’t a lot of eyes on ugly wins over the Bears, Texans, and Titans, and even last week’s impressive victory over the Jaguars was on opposite the Cowboys-Seahawks elimination game.

Garoppolo’s stats are impressive, and this is where I’d normally point out that his actual performance hasn’t lived up to the numbers. And while that’s certainly true, that shouldn’t detract from how much fun he has been to watch. His arrival has breathed life into Kyle Shanahan’s offense, turning a once dreary unit into one of the most creative in the NFL. Much as he did last year in Atlanta, Shanahan draws up some of the most beautiful route combinations in the NFL, and he finally has a quarterback capable of not only executing his designs but making plays outside of them. The Rams may rest most of their best players this weekend, but this will still be a good last test for Garoppolo going into his first offseason as a starting quarterback.

Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers

I have to admit, I did not expect the Browns to be anywhere close to this bad. I expected them to take a serious step forward this year, perhaps even pushing towards a .500 record. That obviously hasn’t happened, as they’re one road loss against one of the best teams in the league away from only the second 0-16 season in NFL history.

This roster is abysmal, and the coaching is even worse. The only thing they have going for them is the individual brilliance of Myles Garrett. Injuries have kept the first overall pick from getting into the Defensive Rookie of the Year conversation, but when healthy he’s been head and shoulders above every rookie in the league besides Marshon Lattimore. He missed the first matchup against Pittsburgh, but now he has a chance to face off against one of the best offensive lines in the league. If the Browns are smart they’ll move him all around, giving him a chance to duel against a Pro Bowl tackle, guard, and center at various points to go after one of the toughest quarterbacks in the league to track down.

New York Jets @ New England Patriots

The Patriots do have to win this game to lock up home field advantage in the playoffs, but that shouldn’t be a problem. The Jets have been better than expected this year, but that isn’t particularly high praise, considering they were expected to be the worst team in the league. And now with Josh McCown out and Bryce Petty in as the starter, they have become as miserable as everyone expected, and they pose no threat to this New England team.

That said, I have to give New York credit for building a competent offense at several points earlier this year. Their scheme is one of the most clever and unique in the NFL, integrating a lot of “college offense” concepts into an occasionally lethal down the field passing attack. Jermaine Kearse and Robbie Anderson have become a quality receiving duo, and if the Jets can find a real quarterback to slide into this scheme next year (along with the return of deadly slot weapon Quincy Enunwa) this could be one of the league’s most exciting offenses in 2018.

Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings

Of all the games on this list this is the one with the most significance. With a win the Vikings can clinch a first round bye, while a loss would open the door for the Panthers to leap them. But that would also rely on both Carolina and the Rams winning and the Saints losing to Tampa Bay. It’s not impossible, but I feel comfortable saying this game won’t have major consequences no matter which way it goes.

We’ll see plenty more of the Vikings, so let’s take a look at Chicago. It’s tempting to call out Mitch Trubisky, but honestly I don’t want to watch any more of him doing his best to play in this lifeless offense throwing to this shell of a receiving corps. So let’s flip to the opposite side of the ball, where Chicago may be building something interesting. Injuries to Pernell McPhee, Jerrell Freeman, and Leonard Floyd have stripped this unit of some of its star power, but they have built up tremendous depth in the front, starting with the exceptional play of Akiem Hicks. Throw in growth from Kyle Fuller and the emergence of rookie safety Eddie Jackson, and this defense has the look of one that could make a leap with just another one or two pieces added.

Weathering the Injury Storm

Football is a brutal sport. We’ve been reminded of that repeatedly this year, as injuries to stars like Aaron Rodgers, JJ Watt, and David Johnson have effectively ended their teams’ seasons. But with 14 games in the book, there is no team out there that has emerged unscathed from injuries to crucial players. Even the best teams in the league have been hit, and they have found ways to fight through.

We’ve spent a lot of time this year highlighting the players who have gone down, so I thought I’d take this chance to draw attention to some of the players who have stepped up to take their place. For each of the thirteen teams either holding or tied for a playoff spot, I selected a player who has filled in for one of their injured stars. I also called out a player they simply cannot afford to lose, a player whose absence would likely doom their championship hopes. Obviously for this last one it would be too easy to just select a quarterback, so I limited myself to choosing from other, less vital positions on the team.

Philadelphia Eagles

Player who has stepped up: Lane Johnson, OT

The strength of Philadelphia’s offense is their line, and when veteran left tackle Jason Peters went down earlier this year it looked like they were in trouble. The obvious move—and the one most teams would have made—was to flip star right tackle Johnson to the left side. But the Eagles decided against that, keeping their chemistry intact and instead flipping their entire scheme around. Where once they shifted their protection to the right and left Peters on an island, now they move in the opposite direction, trusting Johnson to hold up one on one. This is a task he is more than capable of, with unique athleticism that has developed to make him one of the best young linemen in the league.

Player they can’t afford to lose: Jason Kelce, C

Obviously the Eagles are reeling from the loss of Carson Wentz, and it’s going to be impossible to find anyone who can match that kind of impact. But as I mentioned above the strength of this offense is still along the line, and that begins in the very middle. Kelce has been superb this season as both a run blocker and a pass protector, and with a backup quarterback in place he’s even more crucial setting up the protection scheme.

Minnesota Vikings

Player who has stepped up: Jerick McKinnon/Latavius Murray, RB

Case Keenum is the obvious answer, and we could even throw Adam Thielen into the mix for stepping up and becoming a true number one receiver as Stefon Diggs has struggled to stay healthy. But I’m going to go with the two headed running back monster they have used to fill the shoes of Dalvin Cook. Cook looked like a true star before a torn ACL ended his season, and rather than try to replace his rare gifts with a single player the Vikings have excelled with a rotation. In the ten weeks since Cook went down these two have combined for 1082 yards on the ground and 458 through the air, the sort of production any team would take from its backfield.

Player they can’t afford to lose: Harrison Smith, S

Minnesota has a lot of great players on their defense, but none are as vital to their success as Smith. He is the best safety in football right now, and he is the best at pretty much anything you ask him to do. He erases the field sideline to sideline when standing back in a deep zone, and he destroys blocking angles as he flies up to make tackles in the running game. He can blitz, he can cover, and he produces turnovers. He does whatever Mike Zimmer asks him to do, and to replace him with any lesser player would eliminate a huge chunk of Minnesota’s defensive playbook.

New Orleans Saints

Player who has stepped up: Ryan Ramczyk, OT

It seemed a slightly odd move when the Saints used their second first round pick this year to grab an offensive tackle. They already had the left side locked down with Terron Armstead, and they used a top fifteen selection on Andrus Peat just two years ago. But it proved to be a wise move when both Armstead and Peat missed big chunks of the season. Ramczyk has played every snap on offense this year, bouncing between both sides of the line and offering contributions that would make him the most valuable rookie on almost any other team.

Player they can’t afford to lose: Marshon Lattimore, CB

Cornerback is traditionally one of the hardest positions to translate from college to the NFL, which makes is even more remarkable that Lattimore has already become one of the best in the league. He is only 21 years old, and he is already a true shutdown cornerback, the sort of player who completely changes everything a team does on defense. His injury history was the main reason he fell to number 11 in the draft, and various nicks have limited him to only two-thirds of the Saints defensive snaps. But when he’s out there this is a fundamentally different defense, the sort that can win a team a Super Bowl.

Los Angeles Rams

Player who has stepped up: Nickell Robey-Coleman

The Rams have been relatively healthy this year, and there isn’t one player I can point to as a glaring absence from their team. But they have suffered several smaller injuries to their secondary, which has made the performance of free agent pickup Robey-Coleman especially valuable. His ability to lock down a team’s slot receiver takes a lot of pressure off safeties to cover the middle of the field, allowing them to flow more freely to the sidelines to protect against the weaker cornerbacks they’ve had to put out there.

Player they can’t afford to lose: Aaron Donald, DT

Alongside JJ Watt, Antonio Brown, and Rob Gronkowski, Donald is in the conversation for the best non-quarterback in the entire NFL. He’s been the most dominant defensive player this year, presenting a physical matchup problem that simply cannot be solved. The Rams defense isn’t good, but they skate by trusting Donald to individually wreck a couple opposing drives each week. The fact that they’ve put together a playoff caliber defense on this strategy is remarkable, and without Donald they would have no hope of winning any game that wasn’t a wild shootout.

Carolina Panthers

Player who has stepped up: Ed Dickson, TE

Cam Newton hasn’t been given a lot to work with over the course of his career, but the one thing he has always been able to rely on is a quality tight end. Every year since Newton’s rookie season, Greg Olsen has started sixteen games at tight end and finished with at least 60 catches and 800 yards. The past three seasons he has gone over 75 receptions and 1000 yards. But so far this year he has been limited to only five games, a loss that could have been devastating to Carolina’s offense. But they found a suitable replacement in Dickson, a blocking tight end who has put up his best statistical season since 2011, chipping in more than 400 yards to cover the absence of one of the best in the game.

Player they can’t afford to lose: Christian McCaffrey, RB/WR

I still struggle to know what to make of McCaffrey this year. He is a genuine liability as a running back, and there are times the team would be better just pounding the ball between the tackles with Newton and Jonathan Stewart. But his versatility as a receiver changes the way defenses have to play the Panthers, in a way that no one else on their offense can come close to replicating. McCaffrey has been a bit of a disappointment this year, and I’m not sure if he has what it takes to live up to his draft position. But the way Carolina has built their offense around him makes his limited skillset vital to their success.

Atlanta Falcons

Player who has stepped up: Terron Ward, RB

For the second season in a row the Falcons have been remarkably healthy, so I’ll go with a player with a very limited role. Ward has filled in for both Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman at various times this season, and while he went without a touch in ten of their fourteen games he did admirably in the other four, averaging 4.3 yards per carry and making life easier for their primary running back.

Player they can’t afford to lose: Julio Jones, WR

I thought about getting clever with this one, pointing out that Atlanta has pretty good depth at receiver anyway. A year ago I might have had a point, as Kyle Shanahan schemed open anyone who could reasonably be expected to catch a football. But increasingly this year the Falcons offense has regressed to chucking the ball up to the most physically gifted receiver in football, and Jones has obliged with a series of ridiculous catches to keep them alive as they have sputtered through rough patches.

New England Patriots

Player who has stepped up: Marquis Flowers, LB

The Patriots have been devastated by injuries along the front seven, starting before the season with rookie Derek Rivers and culminating with the loss of linebacker Dont’a Hightower. At this point they merely need bodies to try to slow down opposing offenses, and Flowers has been more than just a body. He’s made several impactful plays since moving into the starting lineup, and he’s earned himself a role throughout the postseason, as the Patriots try to hold on with a patchwork defensive front.

Player they can’t afford to lose: Rob Gronkowski, TE

Tom Brady is the MVP of the league this year, but he might not actually be the player the Patriots can least afford to lose. Gronkowski’s injury history is extensive, and this along with his (far too short) suspension two weeks back has given us plenty of opportunity to see New England’s offense without their star tight end. And simply put, it doesn’t work. New England has a decent receiving corps, but their receivers are all undersized, easily bodied by physical man coverage. Gronkowski is their one true weapon that breaks the way defenses can play them, always open even when nothing else is working for New England.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Player who has stepped up: Chris Hubbard, OT

Hubbard has received a lot of playing time this year, first due to an injury to star right tackle Marcus Gilbert and then due to his four game suspension. The early part of the season was rough for Hubbard, but once he got established on the line he truly blossomed. He’s managed to match the unusual pace of Pittsburgh’s running game and understand his quarterback’s tendency to hold the ball, difficult tasks for any lineman to figure out. Gilbert will be back this week, but with Ramon Foster suffering a concussion it’s possible there may be another spot open on the line for Hubbard to slide into.

Player they can’t afford to lose: Ryan Shazier, LB

It’s tricky to find an answer for this one. The Steelers are the deepest and most talented team in the league, with redundancy built at every position. If they lose Le’Veon Bell, they can spread the field out and attack with their deep receiving corps. They’ll play the next couple weeks without Antonio Brown, but they should be able to win on the ground. Cam Heyward is the best player on their defense, but Stephon Tuitt already does much of the same work. The only real irreplaceable player is, unfortunately, one they’ve already lost. There is no linebacker on their team who can match Shazier’s speed and playmaking instincts, because there is no linebacker in the league who can do that. Shazier is a one of a kind player, and his absence fundamentally changes Pittsburgh’s defense.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Player who has stepped up: Keelan Cole, WR

Prior to the season the one part of Jacksonville’s offense that looked reasonably set was wide receiver. They had a pair of imposing towers on the outside in Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns, and they had a dangerous weapon out of the slot in Marqise Lee. But Robinson is out for the season, Hurns has missed the past five games, and Lee went down last week with an ankle injury that will likely keep him out until the playoffs. Fortunately the Jaguars seem to have found something in undrafted rookie Cole, who has put up 334 yards and three touchdowns over the past three weeks, bringing an explosive threat to an offense that is otherwise content to pound the ball on the ground.

Player they can’t afford to lose: Calais Campbell, DE/DT

Health has been the biggest asset to Jacksonville’s defense this year, but with the depth of talent that fills every level it’s hard to find a single player whose absence could really sink this unit. The closest I come is Campbell, a Defensive Player of the Year candidate who elevates every other player along the defensive front. Yannick Ngakoue and Dante Fowler have combined for 18.5 sacks this year despite still being relatively raw as pass rushers, largely due to the pressure Campbell applies up the middle. Without his ability to penetrate, quarterbacks would have more freedom to step away from the speed rush around the edge, and the Jaguars would lose more than just Campbell’s production.

Kansas City Chiefs

Player who has stepped up: No one

I tried for this one, but I just couldn’t find anyone to fit the bill. It isn’t that Kansas City hasn’t suffered injuries. They’re without Eric Berry, Dee Ford, Mitch Morse, and Chris Conley for the remainder of the year. The problem is that no one has really stepped up their game as the season has gone along, unsurprising considering Kansas City’s 2-7 performance over the past nine games. Players went down for the Chiefs, and there was no one really there to take their place.

Player they can’t afford to lose: Travis Kelce, TE

The Kelce brothers play different positions, but they both hold irreplaceable roles in their teams’ offenses. Travis Kelce is the closest thing to Rob Gronkowski outside of New England, a versatile pass catching and blocking tight end who fills any role Andy Reid asks of him in this offense. He is a matchup nightmare, and with a better quarterback he could be putting up mind boggling stats. As it is, he will have to satisfy himself with the rare occasion Alex Smith is comfortable throwing him the ball, when his freakish strength and athleticism makes him one of the most dangerous run after the catch threats in the NFL.

Tennessee Titans

Player who has stepped up: Rishard Matthews, WR

Corey Davis was supposed to be the player that added a spark to Tennessee’s offense. But he has been in and out of the lineup, missing five games earlier this year and accumulating only 284 yards receiving so far. And with Eric Decker contributing little as a free agent, Matthews has hummed along to quiet productivity. A year after putting up 945 yards and nine touchdowns in a run heavy offense, he’s working on a similar performance once again, with 740 yards and four touchdowns for a team that has shown no indication of wanting him around.

Player they can’t afford to lose: Derrick Henry, RB

I’m not even sure what to put here, because Tennessee’s offensive system already runs like they don’t have all their good players. They have a pair of excellent tackles they should be able to trust on islands against pass rushers, but that doesn’t stop them from running two man routes and keeping backs and tight ends in for max protections. Losing Henry might actually convince them to open their offense up, but in all likelihood it would just lead them to spend more time slamming DeMarcu Murray ineffectively into the line.

Buffalo Bills

Player who has stepped up: Dion Dawkins, OT

When the Bills selected Dawkins late in the second round, left tackle was probably the last position they expected him to play. A versatile player who could slot in on either the inside or the outside, the plan for Dawkins was likely to start at guard and develop until he could lock down the right tackle spot opposite veteran Cordy Glenn. But with Glenn on IR, Dawkins slid into the starting left tackle spot and has exceeded expectations there, steadily improving over the course of the season and patching up an otherwise shaky offensive line.

Player they can’t afford to lose: LeSean McCoy, RB

Buffalo’s offensive line is average at best. Their receivers are just plain bad. The only hope they have on offense is for their quarterback and their running back to make ridiculous athletic plays (which makes their attempt to bench Tyrod Taylor even more insane). And unlike in years past, their running back depth chart doesn’t really exist beyond McCoy. Their other options out of the backfield are a pair of fullbacks and Travaris Cadet, a journeyman running back who has been on five teams in the past three seasons.

Baltimore Ravens

Player who has stepped up: Marlon Humphrey, CB

For most of the season Baltimore had the best pass defense in football, stifling opponents down the field and generating an insane number of turnovers. Their best player was Jimmy Smith, an excellent cornerback who has struggled with injuries since entering the league. And, unfortunately, the injury bug hit him again in the past month, ending his season and forcing their rookie first round pick into a more substantial role. Humphrey came in as a developmental prospect, and his ability to contribute immediately is a pleasant surprise, and a positive sign for his future growth.

Player they can’t afford to lose: Justin Tucker, K

This is kind of a joke, but it also really isn’t. Baltimore’s offense is truly awful, and their only saving grace is the sheer breadth of field goal range they have to work with. Tucker’s combination of distance and accuracy is unmatched in the league, and the Ravens are a threat to put up points anytime they get across midfield. A lesser kicker would devastate their one real advantage on that side of the ball and likely end any hope they have of competing.