2016 AFC North Preview

The AFC North might be the most fun division in the league. The superstar offensive talent across these rosters (except in Baltimore) is unmatched elsewhere in the league, and there is an extremely wide range of possibilities for almost every team in this division. They could conceivably send three teams to the playoffs, or they could just send one. In either case, these four teams will run and gun their way through the regular season, giving us a hell of a show however it ends up working out.

Pittsburgh Steelers

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Pittsburgh’s offense could be one of the best the league has ever seen. Even without Martavis Bryant, even with Le’Veon Bell missing the first three weeks, this offense is going to put up a lot of points. Ben Roethlisberger has somehow gotten even better over the past three seasons, and Antonio Brown is the unquestioned best receiver in the league. Last year Mike Munchak worked wonders with this offensive line, and they’ll be bolstered by the return of perennial Pro Bowler Maurkice Pouncey.

There is a lot to like about this offense, and not quite as much with the defense. But they are young, and they have plenty of players with the potential to grow from last year. Stephon Tuitt and Ryan Shazier look like developing studs, and Bud Dupree can bounce back from a disappointing rookie year. Add some fresh faces in the secondary, and this defense could very easily work their way up to average, which with this offense would be enough to make the Steelers the favorites in a weak AFC.

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The hopes of this team are resting on two things: defensive development and offensive health. And based on their track record, it’s hard to count on either. This is the same team that busted with Jarvis Jones and had to cut Cortez Allen after signing him to a five year deal. They’re stuck relying on 38 year old James Harrison for pass rush, and their secondary is utter garbage unless their rookies can contribute immediately.

On the offensive side of the ball, the Steelers are facing the same problem they have every year: health. Le’Veon Bell missed the majority of last season. Ben Roethlisberger has only played a full 16 games three times in his career. And with Bryant lost to suspension, they don’t have nearly the depth of weapons that they expected to. If they can stay reasonably healthy, the Steelers can be historically great on offense. But based on the past few years, that isn’t something we can count on.

Player to Watch: Sammie Coates, WR

The loss of Bryant to a year long suspension definitely hurts the Steelers offense, but it isn’t going to kill it. Bryant was a dangerous and unique weapon a year ago, but his role makes this loss slightly easier to bear. Bryant excelled on creating big plays, while also occasionally killing the offense with terrible mistakes. He isn't the sort of player that you can build an offense around, but he can elevate a very good offense to a great one.

His absence will hurt the Steelers, but they may just have a possible substitute already on their roster. Like Bryant, Coates is an incredibly gifted natural athlete, blessed with good size and fantastic speed. And also like Bryant, he understands essentially none of the nuances of playing receiver and occasionally forgets how to catch a football. He won’t be as dynamic as Bryant, because there may not be another receiver in the league who is. But he can add a big play element to this offense to complement the work Bell and Brown do underneath, salvaging some piece of what this offense could have been.

Cincinnati Bengals

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The final results may not look any different, but Cincinnati took a clear step forward in 2015 after four straight years of consistent but stagnant mild success. They were a better team in 2015 than in any of the previous years they lost in the first round, and they probably should have beaten the Steelers in the playoffs.

Their hope for this year is that things stay exactly as they were a year ago. Andy Dalton’s performance turns out to be a sign of legitimate growth rather than just an outlier. Their front of Geno Atkins and Carlos Dunlap continues to tear quarerbacks to pieces. And if they get young players like Darqueze Dennard or Jeremy Hill to step up, even better. The AFC is much more wide open than it was a year ago, and just some slightly better luck could get the Bengals deep into the playoffs.

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As good as they looked at times last year, there are reasons to believe that 2015 was just an outlier. Much of the credit for Dalton’s success went to Hugh Jackson, who is now the head coach in Cleveland. With a new coordinator at his back, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Dalton regress. He won’t be helped by the loss of Mohamed Sanu and Marvin Jones, his number two and three wide receivers.

Similarly, their defense could slip back some from its performance last year. Dunlap was fantastic in 2015, but it’s always a worrying sign when a player who goes five years without recording double a single double digit sack season explodes for 13.5. He’s still reasonably young, so it could be a sign of legitimate growth. But if they can’t get after the quarterback as effectively, the Bengals will have to put more pressure on their cornerbacks, a unit that is a fairly balanced unit of unproven youngsters and aging veterans. There isn’t a great distance to slide, and the Bengals will likely make the playoffs no matter what. But after progress a year ago, it would be disappointing to see them return to their 2014 form.

Player to Watch: Jake Fisher, OT

The Bengals have a reputation for prioritizing talent over need in the draft, but it was still a surprise when they used their first round pick in 2015 on tackle Cedric Ogbuehi. They already appeared set at that position, with Andrew Whitworth on one side and Andre Smith on the other. And it was an even bigger surprise when they followed that up in the second round by selecting another tackle in Fisher.

Fisher didn’t play much as a rookie, and Ogbuehi didn’t play at all, but they will need someone to step up after Smith left in free agency. Injuries to both players have knocked the competition off course, and it remains an open question of which will be starting at tackle on the right side. But both will see the field plenty this year. The Bengals used an extra offensive lineman on 12 percent of plays last year, behind only Washington and Tampa Bay. Both these players will be called on to prop up the offensive line, and whether the strongest part of the offense can maintain its success through turnover will go a long way to deciding whether they can repeat their 2015 level of play.

Cleveland Browns

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The Browns could be a lot of fun this year on offense. The turnover from a year ago will be simply staggering, with an almost completely new receiving corps and major changes on the offensive line. They’ve loaded up on exciting weapons this year, filling their offense with high upside threats that could prove to be as good as any receiving group in the league. Corey Coleman still has some work to do, but he has the talent to flash over the course of the season. And Josh Gordon led the league in receiving only three years ago, and once he returns from his four game suspension he will be ready to torch secondaries once again.

There are definitely reasons for concern around Robert Griffin III, but a change of scenery could reignite the spark of talent that is undoubtedly still present. Hugh Jackson elevated Andy Dalton’s performance last season, and he could do the same for an even younger and more talented passer. The best version of the Browns will by a high flying, aerial assault that will compete in a lot of shootouts and can possibly put together seven or eight victories to give them momentum heading into 2017.

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This is still the Browns we’re talking about, so it’s not too hard to identify a worst case scenario. Certain organizations are just toxic from the top to the bottom, and no amount of roster or coaching turnover can change that. And as exciting as some of Cleveland’s talent is, the margins of this team are still very concerning. They have next to nothing on the defensive side of the ball, and their offensive line—the strength of their team for the past ten years—took a serious hit this offseason with the departures of Alex Mack and Mitchell Schwartz.

This team could get better as the season goes along, but they could also hit a wall with some early struggles. If Griffin doesn’t show signs of improvement, if Coleman can’t crack the starting lineup, if they can’t keep the pocket clean long enough to launch the ball down the field, this team will be left with next to nothing going for it. The Browns are set up well with 13 selections already heading into next year’s draft, but this year they need to show some sign of progress, otherwise this downward spiral could just continue to sink lower.

Player to Watch: Terrelle Pryor, WR

Pryor is the answer you should give to anyone who ever talks about an elite NBA player possibly joining the NFL (I'm talking to you Jimmy Butler). Football is a really, really complicated game, and pure athleticism is very rarely enough. Pryor is as good an athlete as any non-LeBron NBA player, and he has an understanding of the game that came with three years as the quarterback of a major college program. And still, it’s taken him nearly three years training to become a wide receiver before even having a chance of contributing in the NFL.

But if he is ready to contribute, it could be one hell of a show. Pryor is 6-4 and weighs 230 pounds, and he runs a 4.4 forty yard dash. He likely still has a lot of work to do as a route runner, but he is effective enough that the Browns will give him a chance to begin the season as a starter. His opportunities will wane slightly as Gordon returns to the team and Coleman expands his role in the offense, but for the first few weeks Pryor has a chance to establish a place for himself in this offense, and to give the Browns another dynamic weapon to work with.

Baltimore Ravens

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Baltimore has seen a lot of turnover over the past two years, but they could finally have things stabilized after a rough 2015. Their running game and their offensive line are still a work in progress (though first round pick Ronnie Stanley is getting rave reviews in the preseason), but they look like they might have something good going at wide receiver. Steve Smith and Breshad Perriman are back from their injuries, and though Mike Wallace has struggled since leaving Pittsburgh, Joe Flacco is a better fit for his skills than either Ryan Tannehill or Teddy Bridgewater.

The Ravens have the potential to be explosive on offense, and even if their defense is merely average it will be a step up from last season. This is a well run organization, and they are better suited to weather bumps along the road than most others in the league. And while they don’t have the talent to compete for a championship, they might be able to push for a wild card spot in the playoffs.

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There are some rosters in this league that are just fun to read over and picture on the field. This isn’t one of them. Of their 22 starters there are maybe five or six I’d consider above average players at their respective positions, and the rest of their team is filled out with middle of the pack, ordinary players. This team will be expecting contributions from Lardarius Webb, Ricky Wagner, and Crockett Gilmore. This roster is a miserable combination of past their prime stars and low upside starters, and it is very unlikely that they can exceed expectations.

The Baltimore Ravens are old. Terrell Suggs is 33. Elvis Dumervil is 32. Eric Weddle is 31. Steve Smith is 37. This would have been a fantastic roster five years ago, but every single one of those players is trending down, and there is very little reason to expect this team to be better in 2016 than it was in 2015. There is even less reason to be hopeful for 2017, as this is a team that hasn’t had much success adding young talent and will continue to age burdened by the onerous contract they were forced to hand to Flacco.

Player to Watch: Brandon Williams, DT

There isn’t much to like on Baltimore’s defense, but what little they have going for them is up the middle. CJ Mosely and Timmy Jernigan were a nice 1-2 grab in the 2014 draft, but the real star of this unit is Williams. Standing 6-1 and weighing 335 pounds, Williams is your traditional space eating run stuffer. He absolutely controls the middle of the field on first and second down, and at only 27 years old he’s one of the few pieces with the chance to take another step forward.

Williams is a victim to the same problems that hold back all nose tackles. He offers next to nothing against the pass (3.5 sacks in three seasons), and he only played about two thirds of the defensive snaps last year. But these players can still be valuable on first and second down, disrupting the flow of the offense and leaving them in difficult to manage circumstances once third down rolls around.

2016 AFC East Preview

The Patriots are the class of this division, winning it 12 of the past 13 years. And once again they are the clear favorites, though the suspension of Tom Brady leaves a crack of hope open for the other teams. Each of the Jets, Dolphins, and Bills have the potential to put together a very good season, and to press the Patriots for the first time in eight years.

New England Patriots

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The best case scenario for the Patriots is the same every season. With a historically great quarterback-coach combination, they have the ability to win the Super Bowl every single year. And even though they will be without Tom Brady for the first four weeks, he’ll be back early enough to smooth out any bumps along the road, and he’ll be there for a playoff run.

After a couple lean years, the margins of this roster have been restocked with talent. On offense they have Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman to provide weapons in the passing game. On defense they have Dont'a Hightower and Jamie Collins roaming the middle of the field. And on the sideline they have Bill Belichick, arguably the greatest coach in the history of the NFL. The Patriots will be just fine, no matter who gets suspended or who gets injured.

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The margins in the NFL are incredibly thin, and we shouldn’t just idly dismiss the absence of Brady. The Patriots looked to be the favorites in the AFC for most of 2015, before a late season slide cost them home field advantage. It’s impossible to say that they would have beaten the Broncos if the game had been played in Foxborough, but home field certainly matters in the NFL, and a couple early season losses could leave them with a hill to climb come playoff time.

There are other concerns with this roster, of the sort we can’t just idly dismiss by waving our hands and saying “Belichick”. Their offensive line is already just as beaten up as it was last year, and even though they won’t face many pass rushes like the Broncos, they certainly showed their vulnerability against effective pressure. And on defense they lost arguably their best player, trading Chandler Jones in a somewhat questionable move that robs them of their best pass rusher. The Patriots are very weak right in the heart of both their defense and their offense, and it could be enough to cause them to slip up when the playoffs roll around.

Player to Watch: Jamie Collins, LB

People are beginning to catch on to Collins, and by the end of the year he’ll be pretty much a household name. With Chandler Jones gone he is clearly the best player on New England’s defense, and he is only going to get better as he continues to develop. An athletic marvel, he does everything you could ask for from a linebacker. He can cover receivers in the slot, he can track down running backs from one sideline to the other, and he can get after the quarterback when he’s sent on a blitz.

Bill Belichick is a genius as a head coach, but before that he was a genius as a defensive coordinator. He is one of the most innovative minds in the league today, and no one knows how to use a player like Collins quite like Belichick can. His role will only expand as he continues to adjust to the NFL game, and it will be incredible to watch him utilized to his full potential. Very often unique athletes like Collins are stifled by uncreative coaching. In New England we have something extremely rare, a perfect match of talent and situation.

New York Jets

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The Jets have had a top quality defense for nearly a decade now, and they may finally have the pieces to put something dangerous together on offense. Last year they were held back by the inconsistencies of their quarterback and the lack of the running game, and they may have found a fix for the latter problem by signing Matt Forte. If he can stay healthy, Forte can contribute in every facet of the game, and he will be a major upgrade over the Chris Ivory/Bilal Powell combination last year.

When you think of the Jets you don’t think of wide receivers, but in 2015 only the Steelers and the Broncos got more receiving yards from their top two wideouts. Brandon Marshall had one of the quietest 1500 yard seasons I have ever seen, and even at his age he has the ability to put up numbers close to that again. This team will score points, and they can count on their defense to be as competitive as ever to give them a chance to make the playoffs and possibly even push the Patriots for the division.

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Ryan Fitzpatrick is a problem. We can try to pretend this isn’t the case. We can look at his 2015 season, an outlier as the best season of his career at age 33. We can celebrate that he resigned with them, when no other team had any interest. We can focus on the good plays he made last year, ignoring the three interceptions he threw in the final week with a playoff berth on the line.

Fitzpatrick is a bad quarterback, and we know that by now. His presence draws a very clearly defined ceiling for the Jets, one that will keep them from truly competing no matter how well their receivers or their defense plays. They won ten games last year and nearly made the playoffs, but that likely represents a best case scenario for them once again.

Player to Watch: Eric Decker, WR

Decker has kind of a weird reputation around the league. Following his breakout 2012 and 2013 seasons with Peyton Manning, most people assumed he would be overpaid in free agency. That assumption was so strong that, even when he received a very reasonable 5 year $36 million deal, people still seemed to think of him as someone who wasn’t worth what he was getting. And so he has this reputation as an underachiever, despite putting up solid production in both seasons with the Jets and proving to be what we know he’s been all along: a very high quality number two receiver.

Decker did a great deal of his damage last year out of the slot, and it’s a role he’ll likely be filling again this year. With Brandon Marshall manning one wing and 2015 second round pick Devin Smith hopefully able to get healthy on the other, the Jets will need a player like Decker to control the middle of the field. A big bodied slot receiver is becoming a trend across the league, and Decker’s 6-3 frame fits that mold perfectly, someone who can win in tight spaces and keep an offense on schedule.

Miami Dolphins

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Is it still possible to have faith in Ryan Tannehill? Last season was ugly, and it seems like everyone wrote him off, even after he made noticeable strides during the 2014 season. His numbers in 2015 weren’t actually all that different from the year before, with a higher touchdown percentage and lower interception percentage than his career averages. The only category in which he notably fell off was completion percentage, and that was a product of targeting receivers further down the field, as his yards per attempt actually went up.

Take a look at the roster around him, and you’ll see the most talented team he’s had since coming to Miami. The running back depth chart is uninspiring (though I do like Jay Ajayi as a possible breakout if/when Arian Foster goes down), but they finally have a true number one at receiver in DeVante Parker. Parker struggled through much of his rookie season with injuries, but over his final six games he had 22 receptions for 446 yards and three touchdowns. He will bring a new element to this offense, opening things up for Jarvis Landry underneath and giving Tannehill a true shot at succes

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Live by the quarterback, die by the quarterback. While there are plenty of new things to like on Miami’s roster—the additions of Laremy Tunsil, Byron Maxwell, and Kiko Alonso are all high upside moves—their only real chance of improving over last year’s performance is a significant step forward from Tannehill. And at this point, we may just have to accept that he’s not capable of making that step.

If Tannehill fails, the whole thing will go down in flames. Teams don’t have to worry about their running game, so they will blitz the hell out of a struggling quarterback. Miami’s defensive ends are a combined 65 years old, and their secondary will be torn to pieces if they can’t get to the opposing passer. Miami’s upside is a fringe playoff contender, and their downside is a top five pick, probably to get a quarterback after they cast Tannehill aside.

Player to Watch: Reshad Jones, S

Jones is a throwback. In a league that is moving more and more towards the pass, defenses are adjusting just as quickly as the offenses. The safety position has undergone a sharp transition over the past ten years, as the traditional roles of strong and free safety have merged into something more ambiguous. No longer do teams look for a player who can be dominant against the run or dominant against the pass. Modern safeties need to be able to excel in both aspects of the game, and to be interchangeable in increasingly complicated schemes.

It is nice though to see a player like Jones, who succeeds despite lacking this balance. He isn’t necessarily bad against the pass—though his five interceptions last year greatly oversell his abilities—but his real contribution is in the running game. He plays downhill, and he comes with violence on every play. Tackles are a mostly useless statistic, but it still says something that he finished in the top five in the league last year, when only two other safeties were in the top twenty. Jones is a fun piece for this defense, and even though he isn’t as valuable as some would believe, he’s someone it’s always worth keeping your eye on.

Buffalo Bills

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Buffalo surprised no one more than me by actually being a competent football team last season, and they did it in the most unexpected way possible. Coming into the season they looked like a team with a miserable offense and a defense that was bound to regress, and half of that came to pass. The defense was certainly not up to their normal standards in 2015, but their offense took a massive step forward, powered by the emergence of Tyrod Taylor to carry the team within two games of the playoffs.

Their hope for this year has to be that the regression of the defense was a fluke, while the sudden outburst of the offense was a true reflection of the talent. And they certainly do have talent on that side of the ball, with elite skill players like Sammy Watkins and LeSean McCoy to go along with solid linemen like Cordy Glenn and Richie Incognito. If Watkins can stay healthy, they can potentially even become better on offense, while the defense rebounds to a more respectable level to push them into the playoffs for the first time since 1999.

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I’m still not sold on Tyrod Taylor. He certainly had a hell of a season last year, carving defenses up with both his legs and his arm to the tune of more than 3500 total yards in 14 games. Taylor wasn’t just everything the Bills could have hoped for. He was far, far more.

And even with all that said, it was still not enough to get them to the playoffs. If Taylor continues to grow (a possibility, as he is only 27 years old), they could take another step forward on offense, but even slight regression could lead to catastrophe. A few more interceptions, perhaps a nagging injury from his aggressive style, and the fortunes of the Bills could turn into something really ugly. Their defense is falling to pieces, and a few bright sparks on offense won’t be enough to carry this team to more than four or five victories.

Player to Watch: Sammy Watkins, WR

I usually try to focus on a player that most casual fans probably aren’t familiar with. But in this case, I’m going to say screw it. I want to write about Watkins, so I’m going to write about Watkins.

The Bills gave up an incredible haul to slide up to number four to grab Watkins in 2014, and right now most people would probably agree that was a mistake. I’m not going to disagree with that—two first round picks is a lot to give up for anyone—but I think some of the criticism has been overblown. Injuries have meant that over his first two years Watkins has been outproduced by draftmates Odell Beckham, Mike Evans, and arguably even Allen Robinson (Watkins has 80 more yards, Robinson has one extra touchdown). But if Watkins can stay healthy, I still believe he will emerge as the best receiver from that class.

Watkins has everything you could want from an NFL receiver. He has the speed to burn defenders down the field, and the quickness to separate underneath. Watching him catch a football is something special, the way he snatches the ball out of the air as soon as it’s within reach. When he finally got healthy in 2015 he finished the year with 49 catches for 900 yards and 7 touchdowns over his final nine games. He will be even better this year, and by the end of the season we could be talking about him as a top five receiver in the league.

2016 NFC East Preview

In maybe the most surprising outcome of the 2015 season, the Washington Redskins emerged as victors in the beleaguered NFC East. A division that was thought to be a battle between the Cowboys and the Eagles swung wide open when Dallas couldn’t stay healthy and Philadelphia turned out to not be good at football. And it was Kirk Cousins of all people who stepped forward to claim the division, leading the Redskins to a 9-7 record and a playoff berth.

The factors that left this division so wide open last year are what make it so difficult to predict this year. Will the Cowboys hold it together this year? Can the Eagles bounce back? Is Kirk Cousins the franchise quarterback he looked like down the stretch last year? Are the Giants relevant in any way, good or bad? I don’t have any answers, but if you keep reading I have plenty more wild speculation below.

Dallas Cowboys

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If Tony Romo stays healthy, the Cowboys are the best team in the division. If Tony Romo gets injured, the Cowboys are the worst team in the division. We all know how valuable a quarterback is, but the current Cowboys might be the starkest example of that in history. Never has a team been more dependent on the health of a single player, particularly a player as injury prone as Romo.

If Romo stays healthy, this could be a truly special offense. Their line is even better than it was when they rode it to a 12-4 record two years ago, and Ezekiel Elliott is a better runner than DeMarco Murray. This will be enough to propel them to victory in the NFC East, and if they can get some basic competence from their defense they can compete for a title. Everything depends on the health of Romo though, which leads to the next section.

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If Tony Romo goes down, the Cowboys are screwed. There’s really no other way to look at it. Dak Prescott has looked impressive in the preseason, and he might be able to handle things in spot duty for a game or two. But as we’ve seen over the past few years, this team is wholly dependent on Romo. On offense they simply don’t have the depth of targets to survive their quarterback to elevate the mediocre receiving corps around Dez Bryant, and the growth of the passing game over the past few years has meant that even an elite rushing attack like Dallas’s can’t keep up in a shootout.

If this team can’t be carried by an elite offense, they won’t compete with anyone. Their defense is as anonymous as any unit in the NFL, with only second year player Byron Jones even offering a spark of potential. This unit looks bound to finish near the bottom of the league, and I don’t even see a way to argue that they could exceed expectations. Dallas is a team with a low ceiling and an almost bottomless floor, and even if everything breaks right they still probably don’t have the depth to make a serious run.

Player to Watch: Alfred Morris, RB

I’m not sure I can think of a player in the league who is more disrespected than Morris. An afterthought in the free agent market, he signed with Dallas for two years and $3.5 million dollars, expecting to compete with Darren McFadden for the starting job. This, for a 27 year old runner who put up over a thousand yards in each of his first three seasons, including 1600 as a rookie. Last season was a letdown, but his résumé is that of one of the best running backs in the league, someone who should have drawn more attention in free agency than a less proven player like Lamar Miller.

Instead he signed as a backup for the Cowboys, who then went out and spent their first round pick on Elliott. I’m a huge fan of Elliott, and I think he’s the best runner on the team. But I’m not ready to write Morris off yet. His numbers were definitely inflated some by the system in Washington, but no system can make an average runner as good as he was. And behind Dallas’s offensive line, he could quite easily rejuvenate his career, knocking McFadden out of whatever role he’s going to have and pushing Elliott for playing time.

New York Giants

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Tom Coughlin was a quality coach, but sometimes a breath of fresh air is needed in an organization. The Giants had stagnated over the past few years, and even an interesting collection of talent wasn’t enough to turn them into a playoff team. The promotion of Ben McAdoo will change that, as will the big money additions on their defense. After years of watching their defensive line crumble piece by piece, they’ve restocked the strength of their Super Bowl team with a high upside pass rusher in Olivier Vernon and a powerful run stuffer in Damon Harrison.

Eli Manning has been all over the place throughout his career, but he has quietly been very good over the past two years, throwing for more than 30 touchdowns and 4000 yards in each of them while averaging less than one interception a game (good for him). They added another weapon in second round selection Sterling Shepard to complement Odell Beckham, and if he is as ready to contribute as most people believe he is, this could be a dangerous passing attack.

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The Giants spent a lot of money this offseason, but are we sure the players they signed are any good? Vernon had 7.5 sacks last year. Harrison plays quite possibly the least valuable position in the league. And Jenkins’s team had a chance to keep him but chose to use their franchise tag on a different cornerback instead. The pieces don’t necessarily fit together, and the Giants might very easily have blown more than $100 million in guaranteed money.

The Giants seem to be going all in on the next couple years, and that’s scary for a team with as many holes across their roster as the Giants do. They still haven’t found an answer on the offensive line, despite multiple first round picks spent to shore it up. Their running game might as well not exist, and they could have spent another $100 million without patching all the holes on their defense. This team could win the division if no one else steps forward, but even their best case scenario is probably capped at nine or ten wins.

Player to Watch: Shane Vereen, RB

Vereen does a lot of things well, but somehow it’s never enough to earn him a consistent role in an offense. After terrorizing defenses as a situational receiving back in New England, he came to the Giants expecting to play a major role in their offense. But in his first year with them he had only 120 touches, not even in the top fifty among all players in the league. And while he wasn’t as effective with those touches as was hoped, it’s still hard to justify the marginalization of a player this talented.

Coughlin is gone, and now that he’s the coach McAdoo might be able to exercise more creativity in the offense. Vereen has the ability to play anywhere on the field, from the backfield to the slot to spread wide. He’s a matchup nightmare for defenses, and his versatility could give the Giants the potential to play games with their personnel packages. This is of course dependent on whether or not McAdoo can recognize the unique talent he has, but if he can Vereen will be a special sort of nightmare for the rest of the NFC East.

 

Washington Redskins

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Washington won the division last year, and they are pretty much bringing back the same team. The only major change is an addition on the defensive side of the ball, bringing in All Pro cornerback Josh Norman to bolster their secondary, the weakest part of their team. They also added a pair of intriguing rookie talents in Josh Doctson and Kendall Fuller, both of whom could have immediate impacts (assuming Doctson gets healthy at some point).

The biggest reason for hope is the quarterback position. Kirk Cousins took a massive step forward last year, improving drastically as the season went along and giving them the freedom to part ways with Robert Griffin III. They locked Cousins down under the franchise tag, meaning he once again has to go out and prove himself. If he can improve on last season’s performance—or if he can simply match it—the Redskins can outpace the Giants and the Eagles and compete with the Cowboys for the division.

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Cousins showed what looked like signs of progress last year, but it’s just as likely that this was merely a brief hot stretch. For his career he still has an interception rate of 3.2 percent, a number matched by notoriously turnover prone quarterbacks like Eli Manning and Jay Cutler. Compared to the rest of his career last season looks like an outlier, and it wouldn’t be stunning to see him have a similar regression to Nick Foles in Philadelphia two years ago. The Redskins certainly believe this is a possibility as well, otherwise they would have locked him up to a longer term contract.

There are plenty of reasons for concern elsewhere on the roster. Their defense performed better than expected in 2015, but it was still below average overall, and outside of Norman and Ryan Kerrigan they have no proven high quality players. There are questions about Norman as well, after an unusually late breakout and his unceremonious departure from Carolina. This year will go a long way towards telling us how good he actually is as a player, and he could easily struggle when no longer supported by Carolina’s impressive defensive front.

Player to Watch: Preston Smith, OLB

A second round pick in 2015, Smith is another player to watch for a second year breakout. A freakish athlete with high potential, he had a surprisingly effective rookie season, putting up eight sacks and really turning it on down the stretch with five of those sacks coming in the final three weeks. That level of success will be difficult to keep up, but the Redskins are reasonably hoping he can bump it up to double digits this year.

Washington’s best defensive player has been Ryan Kerrigan for several years, and the pass rush remains their strength on that side of the ball. The emergence of Smith would make it even more dangerous, much as it was a couple years ago when they had Brian Orakpo on the side opposite Kerrigan. On a defense this short in talent, an elite pass rush can make a tremendous difference, possibly even raising them to a league average level.

Philadelphia Eagles

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The Eagles had a miserable season in 2015, but in the two years before that they won ten games both times. Much of the core of those teams remain on the roster, with stalwart veterans like Jason Peters and Connor Barwin being joined by emerging youngsters like Fletcher Cox and Jordan Matthews.

There are players to like on this roster, but where they could really take a step forward is at the quarterback position. The Eagles haven’t had a real answer at that position since Donovan McNabb was run out of town, but they have reason to hope they found it this year with second overall pick Carson Wentz. Wentz has been banged up this preseason, and he will not begin the season as the starter. But like all first round picks, he will get his shot this year, and with his talent he could boost this offense to new heights and possibly put Philadephia in contention for a playoff spot.

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The hopes in the previous section are contingent on a rookie quarterback contributing immediately after moving to the NFL from Division I-AA, so it shouldn’t be shocking that most people are skeptical. Aside from the names I listed above, the Eagles are still trying to rebuild their team after Chip Kelly’s overhaul two offseasons ago, and it will probably take some more time to work it out.

Unfortunately, time isn’t really something in Philadelphia’s favor. They need to find a way to add talent, and they need to do so without their first round pick in 2017 or their second round pick in 2018. They have limited assets to work with, and a cap situation that is among the worst in the league. The Eagles won’t just be bad this year. They’ll be bad for the next three years, and it will be some time before Wentz is ready to elevate a core this barren.

Player to Watch: Ryan Mathews, RB

Mathews doesn’t get nearly as much credit as he deserves. Injuries have held him back through his career, but when he has been on the field he’s been one of the most efficient runners in the league. For his career he has averaged 4.5 yards per carry, including 5.1 in a severely limited role last year. He was by far Philadelphia’s most effective back, and now he will have a chance to take on the lead role.

Can Mathews stay on the field? I don’t know. The only time he played a full 16 games was in 2013, when he ran for 1255 yards and played a major role in San Diego making it to the postseason. But on an offense that needs a lot to break right if they’re going to succeed, he is one piece that has the potential to elevate this unit above expectations.

2016 NFC West Preview

Seattle Seahawks

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The Seahawks have been consistently one of the best teams in the league over the past five years, so it shouldn’t be a surprise that they’re among the favorites again this year. The core of their defense is still intact, from Michael Bennett along the front to Bobby Wagner in the middle to Earl Thomas and Richard Sherman on the back end. And the margins remained stocked with talent as well, quality players like KJ Wright and Kam Chancellor coached up by one of the best staffs in the league.

Russell Wilson only continues to get better on the offensive side, proving to be far more than the game manager with occasional flash plays he was early in his career. He has combined his athleticism with his intelligence and arm strength to become one of the most dynamic offensive weapons in the league. He makes plays that cover the holes elsewhere on their offense, and he could even take another step forward this year, possibly into MVP consideration.

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Wilson can do a lot, but it might be too much to ask for him to make this offense an elite unit. Years of negligence have chipped away a once solid core into a couple of above average players surrounded by replacement level talent, and now it might be time to feel some real concern for Seattle’s offense. Doug Baldwin is a quality wide receiver, but he is unlikely to repeat the 14 touchdowns he had last year (nearly half his career total). And without Marshawn Lynch, they will have to turn their running game over to Thomas Rawls, who admittedly looked extremely promising in extremely limited time last year.

The defense will still be solid, but they have so much riding on it that even a small slip to merely above average could seriously endanger this team’s expectations. They still don’t have an answer at cornerback opposite Sherman, and they still have to prove that they can cover tight ends. Players like Bruce Irvin and Brandon Mebane may have seemed expendable a couple years ago, but now we’ll get a look at what this defense will be when its depth disappears and it has only the stars to lean on.

Player to Watch: Frank Clark, DE

Seattle used their first round pick this year on offensive tackle Germain Ifedi. Other than him, the only first round selection of theirs on their roster is Earl Thomas. A combination of aggressive trades and poor drafting has left Seattle with very little elite young talent on their roster, and as players continue to trickle out due to retirement and free agency they are going to have to find a way to replace them.

Clark is probably their best hope of a young player developing into a legitimate star. A borderline first round talent, he fell to the end of the second round due to domestic violence allegations. He was reasonably effective in a situational role last year, and with Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril ahead of him he won’t be asked to do much more this year. But if he can throw in six or seven sacks this year, he could step up into a starting role within the next year or two.

Arizona Cardinals

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The NFC Championship game was disappointing, but there is no denying that Arizona was capable of winning a Super Bowl last year. Carson Palmer emerged from an injury shortened 2014 campaign to have the best season of his career. A perfect fit for Bruce Arians’s gunning offense, he combined with a rejuvenated Larry Fitzgerald to give some firepower to a team that had succeeded mostly due to defense before last year.

The performance of the defense was as incredible as ever last year, and they only need to replicate this to put themselves again in contention as one of the best teams in the league. As long as they can stay healthy, the core of Palmer, Tyrann Mathieu, and Patrick Peterson is as good as it gets, bringing a balance of offensive and defensive stars that even Seattle can’t match.

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The section above was extremely positive, but a few words jump out that have to worry any fans. Carson Palmer “emerged”, and Larry Fitzgerald was “rejuvenated”, and they have a top tier core if they can “stay healthy”. These factors all scream regression to the mean. Palmer and Fitzgerald are old, and Mathieu has started less than two thirds of his career games. Everything seemed to work out for them last year, and they can't possibly count on that string of luck again.

Every team is a couple key injuries away from a disaster, but no team approaches this with the kind of history Arizona does. Health is a skill, and very crucial pieces of the Cardinals roster lack this skill. Arians only exacerbates this issue, as he showed in five seasons as the offensive coordinator in Pittsburgh during which Ben Roethlisberger started a full sixteen games only once. The Cardinals play a dangerous game. When it goes well, it’s beautiful, but if it fails, they could easily find themselves on the outside of the playoffs looking in.

Player to Watch: David Johnson, RB

Johnson is one of those players that everyone is expecting to break out, to the point that if he simply repeats his production from last year it will be considered a major disappointment. His rookie season saw his role in the offense grow as the year went along, and while his total numbers—581 yards and 8 touchdowns—won’t blow anyone away, his efficiency numbers—4.6 yards per carry and 12.7 yards per reception—have people drooling over the prospect of a bigger role in the offense.

Johnson’s emergence could add an extra dimension to an already lethal offense. Or it could set them up for disappointment. His numbers are skewed somewhat by a small sample of big plays, and if these dry up he could quickly find himself caught in a slog behind a merely average offensive line. The Cardinals have other options if things don’t work out. Andre Ellington and Chris Johnson are still on the team. But right now they’re pinning a lot of their hopes on Johnson, a player who still has to prove he can handle the full workload of an NFL running back.

Los Angeles Rams

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I guess I could give this a go. I mean, they are coached by Jeff Fisher, which mean’s they’re pretty much set for a 7-9 season. I know this, everyone knows this, even Fisher knows this. Best case scenario, they go 8-8. Worst case scenario, they go 6-10. I shouldn’t really have to rationalize beyond that at this point.

But I’ll give it a try. After years expecting to break out, this could finally be the year the Rams break out. Between Aaron Donald and Todd Gurley they have potentially the brightest young defensive and offensive players in the league, and now they’ll be throwing a quarterback selected first overall into the mix. Robert Quinn has had a couple down years, but he could easily return to the 19 sack monster he was in 2013. And while we’re going nuts, Tavon Austin showed signs of life last year, even if signs of life didn’t get him to 500 receiving yards. It could all come together this year, and the Rams could push for a wild card spot.

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So now that I’ve done that, let’s go the opposite direction. Los Angeles has been an average team for a long time, but this could be the year the bottom finally falls out from under them. For the first time they enter a season without any hint of what they’re doing at quarterback, with the miserable journeyman Case Keenum looking like he could hold off rookie Jared Goff for the starting spot. Goff will get in at some point, but there is no way to estimate the damage that Keenum will do until then, or if Goff is even ready to play at an NFL level yet.

They still have stars on the defensive side, but a lack of veteran depth could come back to bite them. This offseason they lost James Laurinaitis, Chris Long, and Janoris Jenkins, forcing them to insert less experienced players into crucial roles. Donald wrecks opposing offensive lines, but he can’t dominate on every play, and this defense could quickly transform into something resembling the underwhelming unit around JJ Watt in Houston.

Player to Watch: Mark Barron, LB

Barron is one of the most fascinating stories of the NFL over the past year. If you recognize that name, it’s probably because you remember him from the 2012 NFL Draft, when he was selected seventh overall by Tampa Bay. For the first couple years of his career he was, along with most of the other players selected in the top ten that year, considered a bust. When he was traded midway through the 2014 season for a fourth and a sixth round pick, most believed that was the slow start of his fade from the league.

But prior to last season, the Rams made the bold move to switch him from safety to linebacker. Traditionally this would have made no sense for a 214 pound player, but as I continue to bring up, the league is a different place now. In the style of division foe Deone Buchanon, Barron became an undersized but athletic linebacker, flying all over the field against the run and the pass. He’s not a star by any means, but he’s a useful player, which is far more than most people thought the Rams would ever get from him.

San Francisco 49ers

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San Francisco’s defense has faded some from the elite unit they were a couple years ago, but they are still well above average, and they could take a small step forward this year. Young players like Aaron Lynch and Eric Reid still have room to grow, and their pair of monster defensive ends Arik Armstead and DeForest Buckner have the ability to turn into a nightmare for offensive lines.

Their defense will be somewhere between above average and good, but where the real potential for growth exists in San Francisco is on the offensive side. Last year was a disaster in Philadelphia, but Chip Kelly’s first two seasons shouldn’t be idly dismissed. He turned Nick Foles into a productive passer, and he has much more talent to work with in San Francisco, whether he goes with Colin Kaepernick or Blaine Gabbert as his starter. Behind an offensive line that should bounce back, and with a stable of receivers who could be explosive in Kelly’s offense, it’s not out of the question for the 49ers to shock everyone and compete for the playoffs.

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That was the rosiest possible look at San Francisco’s offense. The reality is quite a bit bleaker. They still don’t know what they’re doing at quarterback, and in all likelihood they will bounce back and forth a couple times early in the season before they get it figured out. Kaepernick has made no forward progress in his career, and he’s a bad fit for Kelly’s scheme. Gabbert is just a bad player, combining wretched accuracy with utter panic in the face of pressure.

San Francisco is going to struggle to throw the ball, and I haven’t seen enough from Carlos Hyde in his first two years in the league to convince me that he can carry an offense on his own. And there is very little margin for error in this division. A bad start to the season could quickly get out of hand, and while I doubt they’d make another coaching change, there are other parts of the organization that could come crashing down and force them to reset once again in 2017.

Player to Watch: Anthony Davis, OT

Davis is one of the most intriguing cases in recent NFL history. A year and a half ago he announced that he was done with football, joining teammates Justin Smith and Patrick Willis in retirement. But almost immediately he backtracked from this, leaving the door open for a possible return. And sure enough, after a year away from football he filed for reinstatement, and after some hesitance the 49ers decided to welcome him back.

The question remains open about how much value he will bring to this 49ers team. He hasn’t played football in more than a year, and even his final season was cut short by injury. The raw talent makes him a favorite to start at right tackle, but the new coaching staff will undoubtedly have questions about whether they can trust him, in addition to concerns about how much of his football skills remain.

2016 AFC West Preview

Last week I brought you my first two division previews, covering the teams in the NFC and AFC South. This week I move onto the West divisions, starting in the AFC. As before, I’ll take a run at a best case and a worst case scenario for each team, as well as highlighting a lesser known player to keep your eyes on.

I didn’t mention this before, but just in case it isn’t clear, I will be listing these teams in the order I expect them to finish, from best to worst. For the first two divisions this was pretty straightforward. For the AFC West, not so much. This is the most wide open division in the league, and I could conceivably imagine these teams finishing in any of the 24 possible combinations. I picked the one I think is most likely below, but of all the divisions this is the one I will attach the least confidence to.

San Diego Chargers

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In a division that is nearly impossible to project, I’ll lead with the team with the widest variance in possibilities. There are holes all over San Diego’s roster, but there are also a lot of fantastic pieces in place that could come together this year in ways they haven’t in the past. Keenan Allen is healthy, and at his best he is a top ten receiver in the league. Their secondary looks strong with the continued growth of Jason Verrett and the addition of Casey Hayward, and Joey Bosa (whenever his contract situation gets worked out) is the sort of player who can provide an immediate impact. Heck, there’s even a chance Melvin Gordon could step up after a disappointing rookie year.

But what really pushes this team to the top is the quarterback position. Philip Rivers is the best passer in the division, and it isn’t particularly close. He struggled last year behind a miserable offensive line and with no weapons to throw to, and those problems haven’t gone away. But he has the playmaking ability that Alex Smith lacks, the consistency that Derek Carr is still working towards, and the basic understanding of the game of football that Denver’s quarterbacks are still trying to find. It may not be pretty, but in the scrum of the AFC West it’s easy to see Rivers carrying his team a step farther than the others can go.

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The previous section was hardly a ringing endorsement, and I think it’s fair to say that things could go horribly, horribly wrong in San Diego again this year. As much as I like their best players, they are working with a very thin margin of error. Allen, Verrett, and Hayward all have troubling injury histories. Bosa and Gordon have proven nothing on an NFL level. And even Rivers has shown that he can’t carry this team when the pieces aren’t around him.

The Chargers wound up with the third overall selection in last year’s draft, so it’s difficult to say they could do worse. But they really could do worse. A couple injuries, an overall indifference from the players who stay healthy, and a head coach hanging on by a thread, all could lead San Diego to the worst record in the league. If I had to bet on a team to win this division it would be the Chargers. But if I had to bet on a team to finish last, it would probably also be the Chargers.

Player to Watch: Denzel Perryman, LB

San Diego needs someone to step up on their defense. There just isn’t much talent there, and what little is available has to come through for them. Perryman was a second round selection last year, and he saw some playing time as a rookie. He was unspectacular, but he has the talent to step up and become a contributor in his second year.

What San Diego really needs on their defense is an influx of speed. They have too many players who are either old (Flowers) or not particularly athletic (Manti Te’o). Perryman’s athleticism isn’t elite by any means, but he brings more than anyone else on this defense can offer. He likely won’t ever be a Pro Bowl caliber player, but right now San Diego just needs a few capable starters.

Kansas City Chiefs

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Kansas City is the most top to bottom complete team in the division. They have a top caliber running back in Jamaal Charles. They have a quality wide receiver in Jeremy Maclin. They have good pieces at every level of their defense in Dontari Poe, Derrick Johnson, and Eric Berry. And they have a capable if unspectacular quarterback in Alex Smith, which could be enough to win this division.

Depth is the greatest asset for the Chiefs, and that will become apparent as the year rolls along. They may get off to a rough start, but as injuries begin to deplete the other teams they will have the ability to pull out into a comfortable victory. They already have some injury concerns with Charles and star defensive player Justin Houston, but they also have young players like Marcus Peters and Dee Ford in position to become major contributors. The Chiefs are one of the most resilient teams in the league, and with the best head coach in the division they deserve to be called the favorites.

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In a division this wide open, good might not be enough. The Chiefs will probably end the year with 9 or 10 wins, which may be enough to win this division if the other three teams all play to their average level. But the other three teams all have the upside of 11 or 12 win squads, and the odds of all three of these teams failing to reach this potential has to scare some Chiefs fans.

The question we have to ask with Kansas City is: how can they be better than we expect? The answer certainly isn’t Smith, who is as known a quantity as there is in the league. The aging Charles probably can’t carry this team, and it now is starting to look like they won’t have Houston at all this year. They have a lot of good players, but outside of Eric Berry they probably don’t have anyone who is among the ten best in the league at their position, and just one of the other teams breaking through could spoil any hopes Kansas City has.

Player to Watch: Mitchell Schwartz, OT

Kansas City didn’t make a lot of changes to their roster this year, but the biggest addition was undoubtedly Schwartz. Quietly one of the best offensive linemen in the league over the past couple years in Cleveland, Schwartz will be asked to hold down the right side of the offensive line to strengthen a major weakness in Kansas City’s roster.

This is particularly valuable in this division, as the right tackle will spend four games a year facing off against Khalil Mack and Von Miller. Schwartz actually performed remarkably well in his matchup with Miller last year, locking him down as effectively as any tackle in the league. Smith can make some plays with pressure in his face, but like all quarterbacks he’s better when he’s on his feet and comfortable in the pocket.

Denver Broncos

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Yeah, I’m just going to talk about the defense for this one. Sure, Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders are still one of the best receiver combinations in the league, but who’s going to throw them the ball? Mark Sanchez is a league average passer on his best day, and I think I’ve made my thoughts on Trevor Siemian and Paxton Lynch well known. The offense is not going to be doing the Broncos any favors, and if they win it will be with their defense.

But man, can they win with their defense. They lost a couple pieces during the offseason, but they still have Von Miller, DeMarcus Ware, and the deepest secondary in the league. Wade Phillips is a genius of a coordinator, and they will tear opposing quarterbacks apart just as effectively this year as they did last year. They won a Super Bowl with the ghost of Peyton Manning leading their offense, so we shouldn’t dismiss the possibility that they could win the division even if they don’t bother to put a quarterback on the field.

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On the other hand, Denver’s offense could be really, really bad. Their running back situation and offensive line have been atrocious for two years, and they’re not going to get any better now that defenses are keying against them. The Broncos won’t be able to hide behind their running game, which will make things even more difficult for whoever they start at quarterback. I have no idea who it’s going to be, and I don’t think it really matters. My only prediction is that all three start at least one game, and that they go into 2017 just as worried about the position as they are this year.

The one redeeming part of their offense is their receiving corps, and even that has to be viewed with some skepticism. After all, Thomas really didn’t break out until Manning arrived in Denver, and Sanders didn’t have a single 100 yard receiving game in four years playing with Ben Roethlisberger. With the current quarterback situation, it wouldn’t be shocking to see both receivers struggle to reach 1000 yards, giving us an idea of just how valuable Manning was to this offense even last year.

Player to Watch: Virgil Green, TE

The Broncos are going to need some unexpected contributors to step up on their offense, and Green might be their best bet. One of the most athletic tight ends in the league, Green has so far struggled to develop his skills as a receiver. Over hisfirst five years he has amassed only 35 receptions for 379 yards, and he’s far enough along in his career that there are genuine reasons to question whether he’ll ever be more than a blocker.

If he can take the next step, it has to happen this year. Julius Thomas and Owen Daniels are gone, and Green is the presumptive starter at tight end. A big, physical athlete is the perfect weapon for a team with questions at quarterback and on the offensive line. If Green can step up, he will open up passing lanes across the middle of the field and give a relief option to their quarterback, putting new pressures on the defense and potentially giving their receivers more room to work with down the field.

Oakland Raiders

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Along with the Jaguars, the Raiders are the trendy pick of the young teams in the NFL, with many people predicting them to emerge from this weak division as the champion. And looking at this roster, it isn’t difficult to see why. They are loaded with talent, from emerging stars like Khalil Mack to developing youngsters like Amari Cooper to proven veterans like Kelechi Osemele. They have completely revamped their roster over the past two seasons, and they are in a position to take the sort of step we haven’t seen from the franchise in nearly fifteen years.

And to top it off, they may have their franchise quarterback. Derek Carr is one of the most dynamic young quarterbacks in the league, with the arm to make any throw you could ask of him and an impressive sophomore campaign to back it up. He will only get better behind an improved offensive line, and he has the tools to take the leap into the conversation as one of the elite quarterbacks in the league.

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That’s all very positive, so why do I have the Raiders ranked at the bottom of the division? Well first, because margins in this division are razor thin, and the difference between first and last place could be as small as one or two games. And second, because even though the Raiders have a lot of nice pieces, I’m not convinced everything is going to work out as people expect.

Some things are undeniable. Mack is great, and if Cooper can iron out the issues he had with dropping the ball last year, he can be too. But their defense still scares me in a lot of positions, relying on major contributions from players like Bruce Irvin and David Amerson. They can take the next step, but they can also regress sharply, becoming a major weakness for this team.

But my biggest concerns lie where many people feel the Raiders are set for the next decade, and that’s at quarterback. Carr put up stellar numbers last year, but these season totals mask some concerns that arose as the year went along. After throwing 19 touchdowns to only 4 interceptions over the first half of the season, he went 13 and 9 the remainder of the way. This could just be a small bump for a developing player, or it could be genuine regression to the mean. The true answer is probably somewhere in the middle, but even that would be a step back for Carr, who is sneakily old at 25 years of age and may already be nearing the peak of his development curve.

Player to Watch: David Amerson, CB

Amerson is one of the strangest cases in the NFL. I first remember hearing about him his sophomore year at NC State, when he tied an ACC record with 13 interceptions in a single season. Standing 6’3” with incredible ball skills, Amerson looked like a potential top prospect heading into his junior year. But as is often the case with cornerbacks, the interceptions overstated his coverage skills, and a miserable year dropped him to the second round in 2013. Two years later, the Redskins parted ways with him, leaving him as a free agent off the street to be picked up by the Raiders.

And somehow, he was actually pretty damn good last year. Good enough to sign a 4 year $38 million deal, forming the heart of Oakland’s rebuilding secondary. They are putting a lot of faith into a repeat performance, and it will be interesting to see how Amerson stacks up. Is he the big, aggressive cornerback who excelled in college and in his one year in Oakland, or is he the awkward and immobile athlete who washed out of Washington? The back end is the biggest point of concern in Oakland’s defense, and Amerson’s continued growth could really turn the unit into something special.