2016 Wide Receiver Prospects

On Monday I posted my breakdown of the cornerback position group. Today I’m coming with their offensive counterparts, the wide receivers. This year has a deep class of receivers that lacks the elite options available the past couple seasons. There is talent to be found here, but it won’t be as easy to sort out as in 2014 or 2015.

There are a lot of different ways to succeed at wide receiver in the NFL. Route running is a valuable skill, but separation can also be achieved through speed and explosion. Bigger, more physical receivers can outmuscle defenders for the ball, and smaller ones can run circles around tacklers. I look for all of these skills when I scout receivers, and the lack of one can be compensated for by the presence of others. In the end, it comes down to the ability to create separation, reliability in catching the ball, and the skill to make a play where other receivers wouldn’t be able to, however they go about doing so.

Laquon Treadwell, Ole Miss

Treadwell is the most complete receiver in the draft, even though there isn’t any one thing he does that jumps out over everyone else. His game is built around his strength at the point of the catch, but he complements that with quality route running and running ability with the ball in his hands. He is an excellent blocker, and from the way he throws himself around he looks like he actually enjoys it as well. He isn’t overly tall and doesn’t jump through the roof, but he can win balls over the top well enough to be a dangerous red zone threat.

Treadwell’s biggest questionmark is his speed. He raised some eyebrows when he elected not to run the forty at the Combine, and he only gave the doubters more fuel by running a 4.65 at his Pro Day. The issue of speed does present itself on the field, where he isn’t particularly dangerous over the top. He can get some good separation as his route develops, but he isn’t going to blow a defender away at the snap of the ball, and down the field he’s going to have to rely on his size rather than his speed to generate big plays.

But as nice as big plays are, they often get overrated. Treadwell is fantastic at the smaller plays, at creating separation underneath and producing across the middle of the field. He needs to get better at using his body to shield defenders from the catch point, but he has all the physical tools to become one of the best in the league at physicality.

Treadwell is quicker than any receiver as thick as he is has any right to be. A common way to deal with a receiver with his lack of top end speed is to play them tight to the line, not fearing being beaten over the top. But Treadwell is so quick with his initial moves that he simply cannot be pressed, and even if he can’t beat a team with one massive stab, he can kill them with a dozen smaller cuts. This quickness translates to after the catch as well, where he is almost as difficult to catch as he is to tackle.

Treadwell’s ceiling may be lower than some of the other top receivers in the league, but he can do enough things that I would consider him just outside the top ten in this draft. There is some risk involved, but overall I’d say he’s probably the safest receiver in this class. He’ll be a starter from day one in the league, with the potential to become a regular Pro Bowl player.

Josh Doctson, TCU

From the moment he enters the league, Doctson will be one of the five best jump ball receivers in the NFL. He possesses a rare blend of size, explosion, timing, and hand strength that sets him apart from even the best at going up and getting the ball. He tracks the ball remarkably well in the air, and he is an expert at timing his jumps and his reaches. If he can get behind a defender, the play is essentially over, as he waits until the very last second to extend his hands to prevent the defensive back from knocking the ball away.

Doctson’s leaping ability is a class above the rest of the receiver group, but it isn’t his only tool. He’s an effective if unspectacular route runner who was limited by an unimaginative offense at TCU. Most of his damage in college was done as a deep threat, where his speed and leaping ability produced a couple big plays each game. But he is capable than much more of that, able to generate separation underneath with sharp turns and deceptive moves.

Doctson does have some limitations to his game. As a deep threat he could do a better job to avoid getting pressed against the sideline, giving the quarterback a bigger window for the football and himself more room to jump. He is strong enough to shed an occasional tackler, but he doesn’t do much after the catch. There is definitely some risk that Doctson proves to be one dimensional at the next level, that he cannot develop the ability to exploit defenses underneath.

There is one more factor to consider with Doctson, and that’s his age. Due to four years of eligibility and a year sat out as a transfer, he is already 24 years old, older than established NFL stars like Allen Robinson and Amari Cooper. This isn’t a major problem, but it does pose questions about his development curve going forward. Is his ceiling lower than that for younger players? How much of his physical dominance in college was simply the product of being a year or two older than the players he was facing?

This isn’t a major factor, and it shouldn’t play a deciding role in the drafting process. But as a tiebreaker, I think it’s fair to take into consideration. On a strictly talent level, I’d have trouble choosing either of Doctson or Treadwell over the other. But with this as an extra factor (Treadwell will be 21 when the 2016 season starts), I slide Doctson a notch lower on my receiver rankings.

Michael Thomas, Ohio State

When studying a position like wide receiver, it often becomes difficult to know how to factor production into the analysis. There is so much data out there that it would be irresponsible to ignore (though some very good scouts still swear by this method), but there are also a lot of factors that can influence numbers that we need to consider as well. From a pure production standpoint, Thomas doesn’t measure up with the other top receivers in this class. So when looking at him we have to ask, why weren’t his numbers better? How much of it was the situation he was put in, and how much of it was Thomas himself?

From a physical tools perspective there may not be any more impressive receiver in the class. At 6-3 and 212 pounds, he boasts the size to outmatch any cornerback and the speed to explode over the top. His route running is also among the best in the class, and he can generate incredible separation with a simple, deceptive stutter that allows him to break in any direction without tipping anything to the defender.

From a physical perspective Thomas combines the strengths of Doctson and Treadwell without any of the weaknesses. He nearly matches Doctson’s height while also having the good bulk on his frame, and he has close to Treadwell’s strength without sacrificing top end speed. Were their situations reversed, it’s very likely that Thomas could have put up the same sort of numbers the other two did. But in a run first system at Ohio State, his ability to produce was limited.

There are a few other factors that have caused me to drop Thomas below the other two. He doesn’t have either player’s ability to win catches through traffic, and he catches with his chest too much. This didn’t translate to drops in college, but it could at the next level. He doesn’t show much interest in blocking, and he doesn’t go outside his frame to make a lot of catches.

Thomas’s lack of productivity raises some concern, and his other limitations drop him just outside the top twenty in my mind. But the talent is undeniable, and five years from now if you tell me that a receiver from this class is the best in the league, my money would probably be on Thomas (or one other receiver a little further down this list). His ceiling is less defined than the two above him, but his floor is a bigger concern.

Tyler Boyd, Pittsburgh

Sometime down the road there is a decent chance we’ll look back on the 2016 draft and wonder how the hell some team or other managed to steal Boyd in the second or third round. Every year it seems like we see a player like Boyd, someone whose physical abilities fail to measure up to his overall skill as a football player drops because he doesn’t fit the mold of what an NFL wide receiver looks like. Boyd disappointed at the Combine, and he has some off the field concerns that will keep him from rising as high as his talent says he should go, but he is still one of the top five receivers in this class.

Boyd does all the little things you can want from a wide receiver. He’s the best route runner of the receivers I studied, making sharp breaks and selling fakes with his entire body to create separation. He’s a good blocker, and he can make plays after the catch. He has good size, and his hands are as strong as any in the class, allowing him to consistently win contested catches.

What worries me is how frequently he had to rely on these contested catches in college. Someone with his quickness and route running ability should have been wide open far more frequently that he was, and this is where we really see the physical shortcomings come into play. He can create separation with his routes, but he can’t widen it with his speed, and cornerbacks with NFL skill can close the gaps he creates. He may struggle to get open against the more impressive athletes at the next level, and there isn’t much he can do to improve himself on this front.

If Boyd succeeds, he will become another example for the people who love to ridicule the draft process’s overemphasis on physical traits, joining a list that includes players like Keenan Allen and Allen Robinson. But if he fails, he will hardly be the first example of a receiver who couldn’t cut it physically in the league. I don’t think he will fail, but I think there’s a decent chance he will top out as a high caliber slot receiver. There is some value in this, but only enough to get him into the end of the first round.

Corey Coleman, Baylor

When discussing Michael Thomas I mentioned that there was one receiver farther down the list who I could see becoming the best player in the class. Well, that receiver is Coleman, without question the biggest boom or bust threat among this year’s receivers. At only 5-11 and 194 pounds, he doesn’t have the physical stature of the other receivers on this list, but his speed and quickness is on another level, enough to make up for other questionable parts of his game.

Before we go any further, I have to stress how difficult it is to scout Coleman. At Baylor he almost always did one of four things: run a go route, run a hitch, run a slant, or absolutely nothing. And by absolutely nothing, I mean absolutely nothing. There were plays where, as soon as the ball was snapped, he turned and looked to the sideline to get the next call. This reflects less on him as a player than on the scheme he was put in, a high tempo system that saves players’ energy by letting them take plays off. But it makes it even more difficult to project Coleman to the next level.

There is no more erratic receiver in the draft than Coleman. He can absolutely burn teams over the top, but he can also be knocked off his route by a simple shove. He is easily brought down when a defender can get a hand on him, but he can also be insanely elusive, with the sort of quick stop-start ability that almost looks impossible. He’s good for a drop or two a game, but he is also good for one or two spectacular plays.

I honestly don’t know what to make of Coleman. Both extremes of his potential scare the hell out of me. And it could ultimately come down to the situation he ends up in, whether the offense can use him properly and the coaches can develop his talent. I’d be hesitant to use a first round pick on him, but I would also feel as if I’m getting a tremendous steal anywhere in the second round.

Braxton Miller, Ohio State

We all know the story with Miller. A former superstar quarterback who transitioned to wide receiver after injuries, his production is limited by the same run first scheme that I discussed with Thomas above. But after being the most impressive player on the field at the Senior Bowl, most scouts seem convinced that Miller is capable of playing receiver at the NFL level, even if he’ll need a bit more work than other top prospects.

As a quarterback Miller was one of the most elusive and dynamic players in college football with the ball in his hands, and that is just as true at receiver. A smart offense will be able to use him right away in packages that get him out in space and let his athleticism take over. But as a receiver, he still has a lot of work to do. He is still learning how to harness his quickness as a route runner, and he has a pretty glaring false step off the line that makes it easy for defenders to get into his face and stuff him before he can get off. These little things can be worked on, but they limit his immediate impact and add an extra risk factor going forward.

At the same time, there are parts of his game that are tremendously advanced for someone just learning the position. He tracks the ball extremely well in the air, and he does an excellent job going outside his body to make the catch. His hands are not a concern, and his athleticism gives him tremendous upside. Miller is one of the most intriguing prospects in the draft, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him sneak into the end of the first round, even though I think it’s safer to take him somewhere in the early part of the second.

Leonte Carroo, Rutgers

Strong hands seem to be a consistent trend among this year’s receiver class, and Carroo fits that mold as well as any of the others. He is a big receiver who specializes in making catches in traffic, and whose lack of breakaway ability means he spends a lot of time in traffic. He can work into some decent speed if he has time to build to it, but he isn’t going to blow by defenders off the line, meaning that down the field he often has to rely on his ability to outfight defenders for the ball in order to make catches.

As a route runner he is nothing spectacular, but he is a smart player who can get open by adjusting his routes to the openings in the defense. Defenders can close on him quickly, but he is good at shielding them away with his body and at giving the quarterback a wide range to throw to. His instincts extend to what he does with the ball in his hands, where he can work himself through traffic and always seems to finish forwards.

Carroo’s upside is fairly limited, but he can make a good number two or three receiver in the league. He’ll win balls over the middle and occasionally make a spectacular play over the top, the sort of weapon any offense would happily take. Mid to late second round would be a good place for him, assuming some off the field issues have been cleaned up as I’ve heard. He’s nothing special, but if a team doesn’t get one of the players above, Carroo is a solid consolation.

2016 Cornerback Prospects

The NFL draft is now exactly one month away, so it’s time to start digging into the players available. Over the next four weeks I will bring you a breakdown of some of the top players in the draft, starting today with the cornerbacks.

For each position group I selected between six and eight players that are projected to go high in the draft. My goal is to cover every player who could go in the first round, though inevitably this will fail. There will be some players who go in the first round that I did not look at, and there will be players that I did look at who will not be drafted in the first three rounds.

But let’s not worry about that. Let’s instead focus on the six cornerbacks I selected to break down. As with every breakdown I do, they will be listed in the order I would take the them in the draft, with the best first and the worst last. I’ll also begin each writeup with a breakdown of exactly what I’m looking for when scouting the position group.

I’ll begin this one by admitting that, of all the groups, this is the one you should most take with a grain of salt. Cornerback is the position I understand the least about, and it is the most difficult to scout with the film I have available, which only shows the TV angles and cuts off the deeper routes by the wide receivers.

When watching defensive backs, I look for a mix of explosiveness and technique. Balance is crucial to being able to keep up with receivers, the ability to react to an initial move without becoming to vulnerable to a counter. Good defensive backs can play in a variety of schemes, either running deep with a receiver or pressing him at the line. But these technical matters are also things that can be accounted for by coaching at the next level, so I also have to look at pure ability. Recovery speed to track down receivers once they’re beaten, instincts and coordination to play the ball in the air, and explosiveness downhill are often signs that a cornerback can become more in the NFL than they were in college.

Jalen Ramsey, Florida State

Since this is the very first player I’m covering, I’ll start by giving a basic overview of how I do these evaluations. For every player I watch three games of tape (available through the wonderful DraftBreakdown.com). For the first two games I create a list of notes, which I then look back on prior to watching the third game and writing up my analysis. For the most part these notes take the form of a bulleted list of pros and cons, which I use to supplement a more general view of the player I get over three games of tape.

This whole process occurs over the span of about two months, but for the most part my memory is good enough that the notes erve as a supplement to the overall thoughts I gathered from the first two times watching the player. Very rarely am I surprised by anything I find going back through my notes. It just so happens that Ramsey is one of these exceptions.

When reading over the notes, I was surprised to find that I had almost nothing negative to say about Ramsey. I pointed out that he can occasionally struggle to stick with receivers in zone coverage, and that he lets receivers across his face to easily, but 90% of what I had to say about him was positive. I had always had him pegged as the top cornerback in the draft, but until the final time through I was a bit confused why so many scouts have him rated among the best players at any position.

The discovery I made reading my notes is a pretty good summary of Ramsey as a player. He doesn’t do anything spectacular that will stick with you after you watch him, but he is also a remarkably clean and efficient player. His technical skills in coverage are unmatched by any player in this draft, and his athleticism is so smooth and natural that it almost seems unimpressive.

Ramsey plays with excellent balance in every phase of coverage. He can press receivers at the line, but even if he’s beaten off the snap he has the ability to recover. He doesn’t bite on double moves, and he is difficult to beat over the top, made even more of a challenge by his length, speed, and ball skills. Perhaps his best asset is his ability to use the sideline to cut down throwing windows. He forces receivers to widen their routes as they run down the field, and he does so without getting overly physical in a way that will draw penalties, relying instead on subtle positioning of his body to force the receiver towards the sideline.

Ramsey’s stock is bolstered by many who believe he could play safety in the NFL as well as cornerback. In the games I watched I never saw him take a snap at safety, but the skills I saw him display could very easily transition to that position. He is incredibly physical and difficult to block, and he is a serious threat as a blitzer off the edge. I would probably still stick him at cornerback, but he offers the sort of versatility that could be even more valuable in the right scheme.

I’m still not as high on Ramsey as some others, but he is the class of the cornerbacks and definitely worthy of a top ten, or even a top five selection. He is the best cornerback prospect I’ve seen in the three years I’ve been doing this, and he will be able to contribute immediately in the NFL.

Vernon Hargreaves, Florida

Hargreaves lacks the physical profile of a player like Ramsey, but he has enough skill that he should still end up in the top half of the first round. Though his height limits his ability to win balls at the point of the catch and to close down windows over the top, his inherent athleticism gives him plenty of ability to make plays to erase his occasional shortcomings.

Hargreaves is another master technician. He played in a wide variety of coverages at Florida, ranging from press man at the line of scrimmage to a deep zone. Some of these schemes definitely worked to his strengths more than others, but he is comfortable with just about anything he’ll be asked to do at the NFL level. In man coverage he can mirror opposing receivers, and in zone he can use his instincts to make plays as the ball comes near him. He is also a spectacular tackler, and he will offer an immediate impact as a defender in the run game and the short passing attack.

When Hargreaves has a problem, it comes because he commits too early. Whether turning his hips too soon and letting a comeback beat him underneath, or biting on a double move and getting burned over the top, he can be exploited by crisply run routes. His recovery ability isn’t great, hindered by a lack of explosion towards the ball and his underwhelming physical stature.

Hargreaves has some shortcomings, but in the end he is just a playmaker. He finds a way to be around the ball, and he finds a way to make something out of it. Ramsey is the better cornerback, but Hargreaves will likely lead him in interceptions most seasons. And when he gets the ball in his hands, he is even more dangerous, offering an extra dimension as a punt returner. If given a choice, I’d always take the shut down cornerback over the big play star, but it’s not a choice I’d feel too bad about either way.

William Jackson, Houston

Jackson was one of the big winners at the Combine, and he’s ridden that burst into the first round conversation. While his performance still hasn’t answered the concerns about the level of competition he faced, his sensational 4.37 forty showed that he can keep up with any receiver put across from him. This comes through on the tape as well, where he was consistently a problem for the whatever receiver he faced.

Jackson has some work to do to become more consistent, but at the peak of his game he is a true shutdown cornerback. With good length and great speed, he has the ability to challenge receivers at the line and to keep up with them over the top. He isn’t great as a tackler, but he is willing to stick his nose in, and that’s half the battle for a cornerback. But where he’ll really earn his money is in coverage, where his ball skills and closing speed make him a truly dangerous player on the outside.

There are definitely some holes in his game, and he’ll need some development in the NFL before he reaches his peak. He spends a bit too much time reading the receiver, sitting on his heels with inside leverage and letting the route develop. This gives him the ability to break quickly to close out underneath and outbreaking routes, but it leaves him vulnerable to deep passes and double moves to the inside. His usual method of dealing with this was just to hit the receiver at the top of the route, an option that will no longer be available in the NFL.

The technique can be a bit unrefined, but in pure skill he may be matched only by Ramsey. He breaks sharply on the ball, and he always gets his head around, even when he’s been beaten. He has good hands and excellent strength fighting for the ball, and he’ll make plays to go along with tracking receivers in coverage. Often times we make the mistake of putting too much emphasis on a player’s performance at the Combine, but in Jackson’s case the numbers only brought attention to what we should have seen all along, that he is one of the best cornerbacks in the draft and that he should be selected somewhere in the first half of the first round.

Eli Apple, Ohio State

Apple is the most physical cornerback available in the draft. At 6-1 and 199 pounds, he has the size to match up against nearly any receiver in the NFL. And he uses that size to his full advantage, playing tight at the line of scrimmage and hitting the opposing receiver before they can get into their route. He ruins the timing of plays, and at his best he can lock on and prevent a receiver from even making it downfield.

Obviously, this will lead to some problems with the transition to the NFL, where the rules regarding pass coverage are a lot stricter than in college. He was called for too many penalties at Ohio State, and he’ll get even more if he doesn’t change his style. Physicality will always be the biggest asset he has, but going forward he won’t be able to rely on it nearly as much as he has to this point.

So the question we have to ask when scouting him is whether or not he can make this adjustment. And for the most part, I think the answer is yes. He has excellent speed to go along with his size, running a 4.40 forty at the Combine and regularly displaying that straight line speed on the field. Receivers don’t run away from him over the top, and with his length it is very difficult to beat him going deep.

His ability to stack receivers up at the line limited how often he had to show it, but his ability to keep up with receivers on their routes is remarkably smooth. His hips transition quickly, and his feet stay underneath him most of the time. There is definitely some risk to him going forward, but all the skills are there, and at only 20 years old he has plenty of time to grow and develop into one of the better cornerbacks in the league.

Mackensie Alexander, Clemson

Popular perception of Alexander has been all over the place since the beginning of this process. At times I’ve seen him ranked among the top ten players of the draft, but after watching him on film I find myself siding with the people who still have him at the bottom end of the first round. The hype around him seems strange, particularly for a player who doesn’t display that much to impress me in either physical ability or technical skill.

Alexender is on the smaller end of the spectrum like Hargreaves, but unlike Hargreaves he actually plays as small as he is. He doesn’t have the ability to move receivers on their routes, and he offers next to nothing in the running game. Receivers beat him easily across his face, and he struggles to make plays on the ball, partially due to difficulties locating it and partially due to his below average physical stature.

There is one aspect of Alexander’s game that stands out, and that’s his ability to close downhill. He has fantastic burst when the ball is in the air, and if he can stay close enough to the receiver, he can get himself in position to make plays. He still has work to do when it comes to making these plays, as evidenced by his failure to generate a single interception in his college career, but if he can clean up his technique in coverage, he can become a dangerous cornerback.

In the end though, the technique is my biggest concern. He wasn’t challenged a lot in college, asked to play a lot of bail coverage that surrendered a number of easy completions underneath. And when he was put into a man on man situation, he struggled with guesses and was vulnerable to double moves. With only two years of college experience, he still has room to grow. But it will take some time before he’s ready to start in the NFL.

Kendall Fuller, Virginia Tech

Fuller was one of the biggest names coming into the 2015 season, but a disappointing year has likely dropped him out of the first round. He missed time with injuries, and when he was on the field he struggled to keep up with opposing receivers. In the long run the problems he has may be fixable, but they also pose serious questions about how well he will transition to the NFL.

Fuller has some impressive physical tools, with solid size to go along with good speed. He plays with aggression, and he will make a number of big plays, which is what got him all the attention prior to this past season. But his aggression can also come back to bite him, leading to mistakes in coverage that leave wide receivers wide open.

Fuller has a lot of small problems that you might dismiss as fixable with coaching, but together they add up into a seriously flawed player. He bites too hard on double moves, and he gives receivers too easy access to the middle of the field. He doesn’t get his head around to play the ball, and he will draw a lot of pass interference penalties unless he cleans things up. Perhaps even more troubling are his physical shortcomings, a lack of burst that prevents him from recovering from his mistakes and limits his ability to come downhill and make plays on the ball.

It’s easy to dismiss a lot of this as the product of injuries, so I went back and watched tape from one of his games in 2014. And I saw a lot of the same flaws, even if they weren’t quite as highlighted as they were in 2015. Fuller could still turn into a quality starter, but his ceiling is limited, and he carries more risk than I would want from a first round pick.