Secret Strengths

Of all the positions in the NFL, there is probably none more difficult to evaluate than offensive line. To the casual fan, the line is something that is simply there, only ever noticed when it makes a mistake. Even I—someone who played offensive line for nine years during my childhood—often have trouble paying consistent attention to the unit in front of the quarterback.

Most fans would struggle to name even one offensive lineman on most teams in the league, so it’s no surprise that we are often wrong in our beliefs about which teams do or do not have strong lines. The teams at both extremes do catch our eyes, the great units like Dallas and the miserable ones like Minnesota, but for many teams in the middle our analysis of lines is often based on the state they were in two or three years ago.

This season has provided several prime examples of this sort of mistake. As we near the end of the season, the playoff field is starting to get pretty well set (theoretically all twelve teams could be locked in by the end of this weekend). And looking at the teams, it’s almost startling how bad the offensive line play is. There are some consistently top notch units like Cincinnati and Green Bay (though the Packers have been a bit disappointing this year), but there are also a lot of groups that are simply bad. Denver, Minnesota, Seattle, and New England have all been hurt by a combination of injuries and poor play, yet two of them have clinched playoff berths and the other two would need extraordinary circumstances in order to miss out.

These teams have made the playoffs in spite of their offensive lines, and it has led to some reasonable questions about how valuable a line actually is. But there is another group of playoff teams that have overachieved expectations in a large part due to the improvements on their offensive line. Though the casual fan may not realize it, the performances of Carolina, Pittsburgh, Kansas City, and Arizona are largely due to the fine work being done along their fronts.

I made a lot of bad predictions prior to the season (which I will address in detail at some later date), but these teams would find places pretty high at the top of the list. The only one of them I predicted to make the postseason was Pittsburgh, and I would have backed off of that if I had known they would be without Ben Roethlisberger for four games. 

A large part of my skepticism was based on the issues on the offensive line. When I predicted Carolina would go 5-11, I wrote “They have no offensive line”. In my breakdown of Kansas City, I said, “They have quite possibly the worst offensive line in the league.” I didn’t mention Arizona’s line specifically, but they have been a major weakness of the team for years, and they were part of the reason I predicted the team to finish 8-8.

The performances of the lines this year has been surprising, but they haven’t exactly come from nowhere. There are good explanations for how these units have turned around. These four teams have committed to rebuilding their broken units, and their success has pushed them to the top of the league.

The most obvious path to improving a part of a team is to simply add better players, a path best seen in Arizona. At the start of the 2013 season, their offensive line was from left to right: Levi Brown, Daryn Colledge, Lyle Sendlein, Paul Fanaika, and Eric Winston. Currently their starting offensive line is: Jared Veldheer, Mike Iupati, Lyle Sendlein, Jonathan Cooper, and Bobby Massie. In just over two years they have replaced four starters, a radical change for a unit that gains so much value from cohesive play.

Arizona didn’t just replace their linemen. They replaced them with high profile, high cost players. Over the past two years they committed a combined $75 million to the left side of their line, bringing in big name free agents Veldheer and Iupati. At the same time they used two of their past three first round picks on offensive linemen. Even though Cooper is probably their worst starting lineman and DJ Humphries hasn’t seen the field, the willingness to commit resources to their line has changed the shape of their offense.

Bruce Arians is a phenomenal head coach, but as an offensive mind he has some limitations. During his time as offensive coordinator in Pittsburgh and Indianapolis, he never managed to establish a consistent running game, and he failed to keep his quarterback upright and on the field. The same flaws ultimately doomed Arizona last year, and I expected to see the same problems creep in this year.

This is where having a good front office is so valuable. Arians is still flawed, and he is still running the same schemes he has in the past, relying on regular deep shots and predictable running plays. But now for the first time he has the players to cover for his weaknesses, and it has allowed Arizona to explode to the second best record in football.

Changing personnel can often explain a unit’s improvement, but sometimes it isn’t that simple. Over the past year Kansas City has changed only two starters, lost probably their best player in Rodney Hudson, and been forced to move their right guard to right tackle. The moves they made are not the sort that should make a unit better, but the line has unarguably been a major factor in Kansas City’s eight game winning streak.

Sometimes luck can play a factor as well. They lost one of the better centers in the league in Rodney Hudson and replaced him with a rookie second rounder Mitch Morse, who has been one of the better centers in the league this season. Jeff Allen has thrived after returning from injury and moving from right guard to right tackle, a jump in production no one could have seen coming. These two have formed the foundation of a solid offensive line, anchoring the unit to allow the growth of their young left side.

This left side is an example of another often overlooked path to improvement: player development. The first overall pick in 2013 and a sixth rounder in 2014, Fisher and Fulton are prime examples of how a player can grow as they play. Fulton came in last year as a sixth round pick out of Tennessee, not remotely ready to play in the NFL. Now in his second season, he is showing signs of being a true steal, a potential long term starter found in the later rounds.

Fisher is a more interesting story. The first player off the board in a weak draft class, a rocky start to his career quickly earned him the bust label. And while he hasn’t played well enough to truly shake that title, he’s made enough progress that we should once again remind ourselves not to dismiss a player after their first two seasons. He has played as a league average left tackle this season, and with the strong performances around him, that has been enough to turn the line into a strength of Kansas City’s offense.

With these two teams we see the two easiest ways of improving an offensive line, either by adding new players or by letting the current players get better. There is a third way, however, one that can allow a team to improve with minimum investment and little growth from the players. This third way is scheme, designing an offense to maximize the abilities of the linemen and minimize the damage they can do.

Pittsburgh has taken advantage of both of the first two methods to improve their offensive line over the past five years, but their performance this season can be attributed almost entirely to coaching. For years when Arians was the offensive coordinator in Pittsburgh, the offensive line was a consistent problem, both in the running and the passing game. Roethlisberger was among the most sacked quarterbacks in the league every season, and in six years under Arians he only started a full sixteen games once. He’s struggled with injuries this year, but in his previous two seasons under new offensive coordinator Todd Haley he didn’t miss a start.

After the troubles they had on the line, the Steelers did invest heavily in that position. They spent first round picks on center Maurkice Pouncey and guard David DeCastro, as well as second round picks on tackles Marcus Gilbert and Mike Adams. Adams was a bust, but the other three have all turned into high quality starters, with both Pouncey and DeCastro earning Pro Bowl berths in their young careers.

But even with this investment, their line did not start playing at a truly elite level until the past two seasons. Their performance this year has been particularly surprising, given they’ve played most of the season without Pouncey and starting left tackle Kelvin Beachum. Down their two best offensive linemen, they struggled some early in the year, but over the past month they have been playing as well as any unit in the league.

All the credit for this deserves to go to their offensive line coach of the past two years, former Titans head coach Mike Munchak. A Hall of Fame offensive lineman himself, Muchak has proven over the years to be one of the best offensive line coaches working in the league. Despite the injuries, he’s found quality players deep on the depth chart to keep the unit functioning. Their current left tackle is rookie Alejandro Villanueva, who spent time with the Bengals as a tight end and with the Eagles as a defensive end before winding up an offensive lineman in Pittsburgh. The fact that he is even in the league, much less playing offensive line at a high level, is simply staggering.

The offensive line has looked extremely good of late, but a lot of the credit deserves to go to Haley as well for crafting a scheme that minimizes their impact on the offense. The Steelers have the best receiving corps in the league, and they can count on someone getting open even if they only send out their top three receivers. This allows them to be more conservative with their protections, keeping tight ends and running backs in to help the offensive line. They found an extra bonus in veteran free agent running back DeAngelo Williams, who has proven to be absolutely devastating as a chip blocker to keep edge rushers from rounding the corners on the Steelers tackles.

There are three paths towards improving an offensive line, three paths well represented by the teams above. Each used some combination of these techniques, but none hit them all quite like Carolina. With a combination of smart management and some good luck, the Panthers turned their biggest questionmark into a solid offensive line, a line that is now a major part of their run towards an undefeated season.

There is no need to sugarcoat it. Carolina’s offensive line was absolutely wretched a season ago. With the retirement of long time left tackle Jordan Gross, they were forced to turn to Byron Bell to protect Cam Newton’s blind side, trusting the most important position on the line to a former undrafted free agent who had been mediocre in three seasons playing on the right side. Ryan Kalil did his best to anchor the unit in the center, but even a strong season from him wasn’t enough to save a unit that got off to an absolutely miserable start to the season.

But something happened as the 2014 season went along, something I probably should have seen when making my predictions for this year. The unit pulled together into something at least resembling competence, aided by the insertion of rookie Andrew Norwell into the left guard position. Along with fellow second year player Trai Turner, the two guards have taken a predictable step forward, partnering with Kalil to form an extremely strong interior of the line.

The more perplexing issue is what has happened at left tackle. After flaming out in Tennessee, former first round pick Michael Oher headed to the only team desperate enough to let him compete for a starting job. Oher has one of the most recognizable names of linemen in the league, but Sandra Bullock’s performance aside, he’s been a mediocre NFL lineman since he entered the league. Yet somehow he’s become a reliable left tackle since showing up in Carolina, something no one could have possibly seen coming.

The explanation for this could be some mid career surge, but I think it’s much more likely that it has to do with the scheme being run in Carolina and the presence of MVP candidate Cam Newton. Carolina’s downhill, hard hitting running game plays to Oher’s strengths while covering for his weaknesses, and he very rarely finds himself on the islands where he has struggled in the past.

The presence of a quarterback with Newton’s mobility fundamentally changes the way a defense has to play. His ability to scramble when the play breaks down is underutilized, but it is still enough of a threat to sap some of the aggression from pass rushers. Contain becomes as important as pressure, and edge rushers can’t afford to shoot as far upfield when they’re facing a quarterback who can escape through any lane they leave open. Any rusher that comes at Oher will have to engage with him head on, putting less pressure on him to slide upfield to close off the edge lane.

Most of the damage Newton does with his legs comes on designed runs, which are even more of a headache for a defensive end to deal with. Carolina runs many variations of the zone read, but in the simplest version the edge defender is often left unblocked so the quarterback can read him and decide where to send the ball. The presence of this play in Carolina’s attack only further slows the defender’s rush, as any time he manages to beat Oher he is forced to wonder if he’s running into a trap. The hesitance gives Oher a moment to recover, allowing him to cover blemishes that would have resulted in sacks with the less mobile quarterbacks he’s protected in the past.

The line in Carolina doesn’t measure up to the other three I mentioned above, but they are working with less than any of the others. They haven’t used a first round pick on an offensive lineman since 2008, and they only have one lineman among their fifteen highest paid players. This unit is supposed to be bad, and the fact that it isn’t has been enough to turn a good team into the best in the league.

There are so many variables to consider when evaluating an NFL team that it becomes almost necessary to tune a couple out, and more often than not the part we choose to ignore is the offensive line. A common perception is that a line is a reliable, even unit, but there are far more variations in play than people realize. A top flight line can fall to pieces in the year, and a mediocre unit can rise to something great in that same time. Dismissing a team because of a poor offensive line is a trap I have fallen into far too often, and we all need to be more mindful of our assumptions when examining teams in the future.

Fixing the Vikings Offense

I run this blog with a focus on the league as a whole, but in my heart I will always be a fan of the Minnesota Vikings. I watch them play far more often than any other team in the league, and I know much more about their players, their schemes, and their coaches than any other team in the league. My readership is also heavily Vikings oriented, and so every year I try least once to dedicate a post to the team.

Things are going to get a bit pessimistic as I go along, so I just want to get this out of the way. Regardless of how things finish, the Vikings have had a fantastic season, exceeding the expectations of most reasonable analysts. Currently they are 8-5, sitting a game behind the Packers for the division lead and two games ahead of the Buccaneers and Falcons for the final Wild Card spot. This team was supposed to take a step forward this season, but what they have done is beyond the normal development curve.

It’s difficult to retain this perspective at this moment, as the Vikings are coming off of two consecutive losses that were both heartbreaking in their own way. After being humiliated on their own turf by the Seahawks, the Vikings nearly pulled off a major upset in Arizona, only to fall short after a fumble cost them a chance at a game tying field goal. These losses haven’t hurt their playoff chances, but they have revealed plenty of flaws for pessimistic fans and commentators to pick at.

The Vikings overachieved to get to 8-3, and some regression was due to occur. This team’s defense is fantastic, but their offense has been flawed from the start of the season, and now that they are starting to match up against stiffer competition their shortcomings are being exposed. Their defense had a few bumps against Seattle, but for the most part they’ve been as stellar as ever, their only failings attributable to the absences of Harrison Smith, Anthony Barr, and Linval Joseph.

The offense has been a different story. During the middle part of the season it seemed to be humming along with efficient brutality, trusting Teddy Bridgewater to protect the ball while Adrian Peterson gashed the opposing defense. They weren’t putting up a lot of points, but they didn’t need to, not while they were keeping the clock moving and trusting their defense to hold down the opposition.

There was plenty of reason to be uneasy about their offense, and the past few weeks have shown us the true costs of their limitations. The Vikings are almost completely one dimensional, overly reliant on Adrian Peterson and incapable of attacking down the field. Their biggest problem is on the offensive line, a unit that is inconsistently mediocre at run blocking and consistently terrible at pass blocking.

The Vikings are still in the hunt for a championship, but it is never a bad time to start looking forward. The goals for this year and the goals for the long term future are very different things, and in order to achieve the latter they will need to fix the problems on their offense. Thirteen weeks into the season is too late to do much about the roster or the lineup, but there are still changes that can be made to help them over the final three weeks and into the postseason, before more drastic moves are made during the offseason.

How to Fix the Offense: This Year

This part is fairly straightforward, and it is honestly something that should have happened long before now. Minnesota’s personnel limitations have hurt their offense, but not nearly as much as the coaching staff’s inability to recognize these limitations. The schemes they are running constantly expose their weaknesses and only occasionally highlight their strengths, and they are responsible for many of the problems the Vikings have had moving the ball.

Bridgewater is a very talented and very intelligent passer, and he has shown flashes of being a top notch NFL quarterback over his first two seasons in the league. Occasional mechanical issues have troubled him this year, but when he’s on he is one of the most accurate passers of the football in the league. Concerns about his arm strength are ill informed, and he has all the physical ability he needs to run an NFL offense.

He does have his flaws, and they reveal themselves mostly when he is asked to attack down the field. His throwing motion is a bit unorthodox, and his elbow will occasionally drop too low so his entire arm ends up underneath the ball. This causes some passes to sail high when he tries to throw on a line, but the biggest problems it presents come when he tries to attack downfield.

Much has been made about Bridgewater’s problems throwing the deep ball, but very few people have zeroed in on the true issue. If you want to understand how to throw a ball down the field, spend some time watching Carson Palmer or Ben Roethlisberger play this year. Watch the trajectory the ball comes out of their hands with, then compare it to Bridgewater’s. The best deep passers in the league throw the ball incredibly high, giving their receivers time to identify and adjust to the pass while in flight. No quarterback can place the ball within a foot of a spot forty yards down the field, but if receivers are given time to respond they can move beneath the ball, making a pass look far more accurate than it actually is.

The problems the Vikings have are twofold. First of all, Bridgewater’s balls come out with a very flat trajectory, in a large part due to his mechanics. He doesn’t give the receivers a great deal of time to adjust to the ball, and he isn’t helped by a mediocre corps of pass catchers. Throw all this behind a bad offensive line, and it isn’t a surprise that the Vikings are incapable of stretching the field when they are on offense.

The inability to go deep is definitely not a good thing, but plenty of teams are able to craft functional offenses without it. Look at Kansas City, or New England before all their receivers went down. The personnel on these teams is remarkably similar to Minnesota’s. An accurate quarterback who avoids turnovers but can’t stretch the field, receivers who struggle to make plays on the deep ball, and offensive lines that work like turnstiles.

Kansas City and New England have found success with a quick passing attack, getting the ball out of their quarterbacks’ hands as quickly as possible to cover for their other shortcomings. Ideally Minnesota would do the same, but offensive coordinator Norv Turner has resisted so far. He has always favored a scheme that attacks down the field, and his stubbornness has prevented him from changing this despite the clear needs of his personnel. The Vikings have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL, and they also lead the league in seven step drops. That is the sort of thing that simply should not happen.

We saw a glimpse of what this offense could be in the second half of the game against Arizona. The Cardinals defense is built around the blitz, and on Thursday they sent wave after wave of linebackers and defensive backs at the quarterback. This constant pressure forced Minnesota’s hands, and Bridgewater responded with his best game of the season, completing 25 of 36 passes for 335 yards and a touchdown. He did this primarily on quick passes, reading the defense before the snap and finding the open receiver in the face of pressure. The game only ended when they went away from this, calling for Bridgewater to drop back five steps and asking for him to wait for his receivers to cross the field to reach the sideline.

The Vikings screwed up the final play, but that shouldn’t negate everything that happened before it. The offense we saw on Thursday is the offense the Vikings should be running the rest of the season, and if they stick to what they had success with they should have no trouble beating Chicago and New York. But so much of this depends on Turner, one of the finest offensive coordinators in NFL history but also someone who struggles to change with the times. He needs to get over his stubbornness and make the changes to their offense, otherwise their passing game will continue to struggle.

How to Fix the Offense: Next Year

You will notice a very prominent name missing from the section above. When discussing what the Vikings had to do to improve their offense, surely I had to find a way to mention Adrian Peterson, their best offensive player and the NFL’s leading rusher. He’s been the heart of their offense all year, and when he’s been working, this team looks almost unbeatable. But there’s another way of phrasing that, one most Vikings fans don’t want to admit. When Peterson isn’t running well, their offense doesn’t work.

There are plenty of problems with Minnesota’s offense, and it seems strange to point the blame at their best player. Their offensive line is a mess, but it should get better next year with the return of John Sullivan and Phil Loadholt. Matt Kalil has actually been decent this year, and it will probably be worthwhile to sign him to a cheap two or three year deal at the end of the season. If we are addressing the offense in free agency or the draft, I think it would be much better to go after a receiver than a lineman.

But even if they upgrade the talent on their offense, they will still have major issues. Right now they are struggling not just because the players are failing but also because the scheme isn’t working. They are constantly finding themselves in bad situations, facing third and long situations their passing game cannot handle. And while there is a solution to this, it’s one most Vikings fans won’t want to hear. This offseason, the Minnesota Vikings should trade away Adrian Peterson.

The fundamental problem with the Vikings offense is that they are actually running two offenses. There is the Adrian Peterson offense, and there is the Teddy Bridgewater offense. The Peterson offense is what you’d traditionally see in the NFL, a quarterback under center and a running back hitting a hole from seven yards back. The passing game is built off the running game, utilizing play action to attack down the field as the defenders move up to deal with the run. It’s the sort of offense Norv Turner loves to run, and it’s come to be the dominant scheme for the Vikings this season.

The other offense looks far more like the offenses you see having success in the NFL in recent years. This offense spreads the field with three receiver sets and a tight end in the slot, simplifying the reads for the quarterback and providing multiple targets to pick from. The quarterback starts in the shotgun, and the running game is built on the back of the passing game, quick hitting zone runs that force the running back to play slower and read the defense.

The differences are often complicated and subtle, but they can be crudely simplified to under center versus shotgun. And for the Vikings, the differences between the two are staggering. Teddy Bridgewater has thrown nine touchdown passes this season, of which seven have come from the shotgun. Adrian Peterson has run for nine touchdowns, and all nine have come on plays that started with the quarterback under center.

This dichotomy has severely hurt the Minnesota’s ability to function as a consistent offense. Adrian Peterson has always been a boom or bust runner and this season has only made things more extreme (partially due to the issues on the offensive line). Peterson has been stuffed at or behind the line 63 times this year, sixteen times more than the next most stuffed runner in the league. When this happens, the Vikings are stuck into a second and long or third and long play, forcing their passing game into situations it isn’t comfortable with.

This is a serious blow to any offense, but it isn’t always a fatal one. Some teams are built to absorb poor performance on first down. With the ability to attack down the field, it is possible to keep moving the ball even when a running play is stuffed, or to make enough big plays to compensate for some negative ones. Adrian Peterson is one of the top running backs in the league, and even though he doesn’t fit the versatile mode of the modern running back, he can still be an essential piece of an NFL offense.

The problem is, he can’t be an essential part of the Vikings offense. This is not a team that can recover when they get behind the sticks. They don’t have the pass protection, they don’t have the wide receivers, and they don’t have the quarterback. At the beginning of the season it was a common refrain that the return of Peterson would give a boost to Bridgewater’s development. But as the season has gone along it has become clear that it has actually stunted his growth, forcing him into an offense that doesn’t fit his talents and into situations in which any quarterback would fail.

The simple fact is, Teddy Bridgewater and Adrian Peterson cannot coexist. Peterson’s strengths are in a traditional running attack, a tight formation with multiple tight ends that clutter the box so he can break free once he’s through the mess. Bridgewater’s strengths are reading the field and getting the ball immediately to the open receiver, something he can’t do when dropping back from center or turning his back to the defense to fake a handoff. Play action is good for attacking the defense deep, but it is a disaster for an offense with a shaky line and a quarterback who struggles throwing the ball down the field. Everything that Peterson is good at neutralizes everything Bridgewater is good at, and vice versa.

This is where things get tricky. I’ve watched Peterson since he came into the league. I was at the game his rookie year when he went for 296 yards, and I was at his first game back in 2012 after his torn ACL. His MVP season is still the most fun I have ever had watching football, and I’d be hard pressed to name a player I’ve enjoyed cheering for more than him. For nine years now he’s been the face of the Minnesota Vikings, and it is hard to admit that he has to be cast aside for a second year player who will likely never come anywhere close to the Hall of Fame peak he has been at since he entered the league.

But that’s what has to happen. When it’s a choice between a 30 year old running back and a 23 year old quarterback, it isn’t a choice at all. It is still very much up in the air whether Bridgewater is the future of this franchise, but right now he is the only future the Vikings have. If he doesn’t work out, this team will never take the next step, regardless of who is playing running back. With the offense they are currently running, their ceiling is what we are seeing this year, a fringe playoff team that will never be able to compete with the top teams in the league.

There was a great deal of talk about trading Peterson last offseason, and it should only be easier this year, coming off another 1000 yard season to dismiss any doubts about whether he still had it. There will be plenty of teams willing to take Peterson on this offseason, especially with a contract much friendlier than the one he was carrying last offseason.

Dallas has seen just how fragile their team is, and Peterson would be the perfect short term option to shoot for the brief window left in Tony Romo’s career. Arizona has managed a solid running game with Chris Johnson and David Johnson, but if they had made the trade for Peterson that was so heavily rumored last year, they would likely now be the Super Bowl favorites rather than just another contender. He would certainly be worth more to them than the DJ Humphries, the player they took with their first round pick last year. (In fact, Humphries seems like he’d be a pretty good piece as part of a deal. A player at a position Arizona doesn’t really need, going to a team with a shaky offensive line? It could definitely work.)

These options would make winners of everyone involved. Both Dallas and Arizona have offenses that can make plays down the field in the way Minnesota’s can’t, and both are dealing with brief championship windows with aging quarterbacks. They could use a 30 year old running back more than the Vikings, a team whose championship aim should more realistically be two or three years down the road. Peterson would get a chance to compete for a championship as his career winds down, and Bridgewater would be free to develop in an environment suiting his skills.

It would be a change for Vikings fans who have spent nearly a decade watching an offense built around an elite running back, but it could ultimately prove a change for the better. Jerrick McKinnon is obviously not Adrian Peterson, but he has shown enough to convince me that he is an NFL caliber running back. He would fit perfectly into a more open offense beside Bridgewater, working as both a runner and a receiver in a way that Peterson never could. And with the talent the Vikings could add with the draft picks they own and the assets they would get in return for Peterson, they could develop into a high powered offense.

This is a gamble, and a very big one at that. It is a gamble on the development of Bridgewater, something no one can feel great about after what has been a shaky second season. But the fact of the matter is, the Vikings have already gambled on Bridgewater. They gambled when they moved back into the first round to get him. They gambled when they chose him over Derek Carr. And now they have to ride with it. The ultimate goal of the NFL is to win a championship, and in an all or nothing environment, it doesn’t pay to hedge your bets. The only way to win is by doubling down, and for the Vikings that means parting ways with their best player.

Coming on Strong

Four weeks ago I posted my midseason review, an opportunity to look back at the previous nine weeks and forward at the eight still to come. We’re halfway through the second half now, and, in possibly the greatest surprise in history, several of the predictions I made have already been proven wrong. Green Bay is not running away with the division like I expected them to. New England has fallen out of the top overall seed in the AFC. And ever since I declared them the favorites to claim a Wild Card spot, the Raiders have won only a single game and are all but eliminated.

Of course, football is a zero sum game, and for every team that’s fallen off there is one that has risen up. Teams that I had written off are playing as well as any in the league, and teams once on the edge of playoff contention have now all but clinched a spot. Some of these teams have come out of nowhere, while others we could have seen coming all along. And with only four games left before the playoffs, we have to ask ourselves, what will we see going forward? Will we see the teams that struggled through the first half of the season, or the teams that have dominated over the past few weeks?

Seattle Seahawks

 What I said:

“The Seahawks have an uphill road to climb, but they should still be considered a favorite to grab a playoff spot.”

This is the one that is surprising no one, mostly because few people realized how mediocre Seattle was over the first half of the season. Everyone expected the Seahawks to get back on track, and their recent explosion has half aware fans nodding their heads in self congratulatory celebration. But the recent string of dominant victories says far more about the changes Seattle has made than the team they were early in the season, as they’ve transformed themselves from a fringe playoff team to a legitimate Super Bowl contender in a matter of weeks.

In retrospect it seems obvious that Seattle’s coaching staff would be able to turn this team around. They struggled early due to a few glaring flaws, flaws that were easily corrected over their bye week. The switch away from (and eventual release of) Cary Williams has covered some of the holes in their secondary. After some early inconsistencies, Thomas Rawls has settled more than comfortably into the role as starting running back, filling the hole left by Marshawn Lynch without much, if any, dropoff.

These flaws involved individual players, and with Seattle’s depth and development it isn’t a shock that they had replacements available on the bottom end of their roster. Fixing a hole here and there is something that happens all the time over the course of the season, but it is a lot more difficult to fix an entire failing unit, like Seattle’s struggling offensive line. In this case the problem wasn’t any single player as much as it was all five, and there is no substitution that could solve this. Seattle’s line is still not very good, but they’ve had less negative impact over the past couple weeks than earlier in the season. The changes here are entirely schematic, minimizing the damage done by the line by minimizing their responsibilities in the offense.

Early in the season Seattle’s passing game was built around collecting yards in big chunks, relying on Russell Wilson’s cannon of an arm to stretch the field with Doug Baldwin and Jevon Kearse. Since their bye week however, they’ve changed the way they throw the ball. They are relying on a lot more quick passes and rollouts, rubbing defenders off their tight coverage immediately off the snap and trusting their receivers to make plays after the catch. The straight line speed of Kearse has mostly disappeared from the offense, replaced by the tight area quickness of Tyler Lockett. They are asking Wilson to get the ball out of his hands quicker, and they are trusting their line to do less in protection.

These adjustments have worked remarkably well over the past couple weeks, leading to a shootout win over Pittsburgh and an absolute demolishing of Minnesota. This success has gotten the Seahawks in the conversation as a Super Bowl contender, and with an easy schedule ahead they should be able to coast into the playoffs.

But in order to go any farther than that, they will need to keep up this level of play, a prospect that will become more challenging as teams adjust to their new scheme. Jimmy Graham is done for the rest of the season, robbing them of a crucial piece in their quick passing attack. And as teams begin to play their receivers tighter, Wilson will have no choice but to hold the ball longer. He is still extremely dangerous scrambling when the play breaks down, and there will still be opportunities available when he extends a play. The offense going forward for Seattle will become a hybrid of what they had early in the season and what they are using now. Keeping up this level of play might not be possible, but they don’t have to do so in order to make a deep postseason run.

Houston Texans

What I said:

“Fortunately, we are into the second half of the season, and in eight short weeks the city of Houston will once again be free from having to watch this team. Because even though they are technically still in contention for the division, nothing short of a Herculean effort from their two stars will earn them extra games this year.”

The lessons you learn when making predictions. As it turns out, saying that something would require a Herculean effort JJ Watt is no reason to dismiss the possibility of that happening. Over the past four weeks Houston has leapt from out of the picture into playoff contention, now tied for the division lead and one game out of the Wild Card. They’ve done this on the back of the best player in football, who in all rights should run away with Defensive Player of the Year once again. He leads the league in sacks, and he performs even better when you look into the more advanced stats, with more quarterback hits over his past five games than any other player has the entire season.

Strangely enough, the other top player I mentioned has had less to do with their recent success. DeAndre Hopkins has gone quiet after a torrid start to the season, with only 20 catches for 299 yards over his past four games. That is still extremely impressive, but it is nothing compared to his first eight games, in which he put up 66 receptions and 870 yards. And it isn’t the case of other receivers stepping up either, as all other players on their roster—receivers, tight ends, and running backs—put together a total of two games in which one of them eclipsed 75 yards receiving.

Perhaps it’s the running game then responsible for their recent success. But no, the Texans have averaged below four yards per carry over this stretch. Maybe the credit goes to Brian Hoyer, who has settled into a stable role after the release of Ryan Mallett. Except that he has as many interceptions since the midway point of the season as he had before it, and only once during this four game stretch has his yards per attempt cracked seven.

Things have been going pretty well in Houston lately, but when you dig into the numbers it becomes very clear that this is the same miserable offense as always. They can’t run the ball, they can’t distribute the ball, they can’t really do anything but chuck it up to Hopkins. And so, to find the source of their improvement, we have to look squarely at the defensive side of the ball.

The easy explanation is Watt, and while he’s certainly stepped up his performance recently, their turnaround has more to do with the young players that surround him. Jadeveon Clowney is banged up once again, and at this point we have to wonder if he will ever be what he once was physically, but he still gets on the field enough to show flashes of his potential. And their first two picks from this past year’s draft are playing major roles on this team, with Benardrick McKinney clogging up the middle of the field and Kevin Johnson tracking receivers on the outside.

Even considering this, however, it is still hard to make sense of what Houston’s done to get back into the playoff conversation. And as worried as I am about putting my foot in my mouth again, I have to say that lady luck deserves her share of the credit as well. Houston’s turnaround on defense is too massive for simple talent to explain, and we saw the first cracks in their façade appear against Buffalo last weekend. Sammy Watkins torched them in the first half to give the Bills a wide lead, which they clung onto even after Houston tightened up defensively in the second half. Over the previous games Houston had the luxury of an early lead, and when they went down their offense was exposed as a unit that isn’t capable of playing from behind. A few unlucky swings, a couple bounces don’t go their way, and they simply can’t do anything to recover.

The Texans are still not a very good football team, but that doesn’t mean they’re doomed to miss the playoffs. After all, they still play in the AFC South, and they are tied right now with the battered and vulnerable Colts. The problem is, Indianapolis has already beaten Houston once this year, and they have quite possibly the easiest schedule remaining in the league. Both teams still have to play Jacksonville and Tennessee as well as a game against each other, but the Colts have the luxury of playing the Dolphins, whereas the Texans have to play the Patriots. There is no margin of error for Houston right now, and that is absolutely terrifying for a team as flawed as this one.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

What I said:

“Tampa Bay has plenty to be hopeful for. Just not this season. They’ll scrounge together a few more wins against a gentle schedule, and then they’ll be in a good position to add more talent to their roster next year.”

As you see, I was optimistic about Tampa Bay’s chances over the second half of the season, but even I didn’t expect them to actually get back into the playoff conversation. Part of that has to do with the utter collapse by the Falcons, but most of the credit deserves to go to Tampa Bay. They have collected wins against opponents they are supposed to beat, and in doing so they have turned around their season. They now sit a game behind Seattle for the final Wild Card spot, and if they can win out, they have a chance to sneak into the playoffs.

Their next three games are very winnable, but the final week against Carolina will be a major hurdle. Theoretically Carolina could be resting their starters, but that is assuming that they have both clinched home field advantage and lost any chance of an undefeated season. This is possible, if they were to lose one of their next three games and Arizona loses to either Philadelphia or Green Bay. But in all likelihood this is a hill too tall for Tampa Bay to climb, and they will have to settle for ending their season on a high note.

Their recent turnaround can be attributed to the development of their offense. This was something pretty much everyone could have seen coming at the beginning of the season, from a talented but inexperienced group that would coalesce as they gained experience. Their offensive line is still shaky, but rookies Ali Marpet and Donovan Smith have stabilized things as the season has gone along. Mike Evans hasn’t exploded in the way we expected him to, hampered by drops and inconsistency. But he is talented enough to continue to swallow yards in big chunks, and now that Vincent Jackson is healthy again they have the pair of imposing towers on the outside we all expected to see.

The more surprising boost to their offense has come from the sudden resurgence of Doug Martin who, after following a stellar rookie year with two dismal seasons, was given up for dead by many. He is now second in the league in rushing, and he would be running away with Comeback Player of the Year if it wasn’t for the entire Arizona Cardinals roster (seriously, you could justify giving the award to Carson Palmer, Chris Johnson, Patrick Peterson, or Larry Fitzgerald).

These factors have all played a role in Tampa Bay’s offensive success, but they are secondary to the growth we have seen from Jameis Winston. It hasn’t gotten the publicity it probably deserves, both due to the anonymity of playing in Tampa Bay and the success of other rookies. But over the past month Winston has been the best offensive rookie in the league. He’s cut back on the interceptions after throwing seven in his first four games, and he’s showing improvement with each passing week. If the Buccaneers do somehow make it into the postseason, he will likely earn Offensive Rookie of the Year. But even if that doesn’t happen, he is still the brightest of the many shining lights in Tampa Bay’s future.

Kansas City Chiefs

What I said:

“In all likelihood the final Wild Card spot will go to the team that can find an extra gear they haven't shown so far, a gear the Chiefs simply do not have.”

Winners of six straight and the hottest non-Carolina team in the league, Kansas City has proven they do in fact have the extra gear. A 1-5 start looked like it doomed their playoff chances, but they have rallied back in a weak Wild Card field, and with games remaining against the Chargers, Ravens, Browns, and Raiders, they have the easiest path of any of the teams competing in the AFC.

The turnaround in Kansas City has happened on both sides of the ball. When Jamaal Charles went down, it was assumed their offense was as good as dead, and at first it looked like this was the case. Knile Davis is explosive, but he is too unpolished and unreliable to be a featured back. That left them with Charcandrick West, a second year player with a grand total of five career carries before taking over as the primary running threat. He’s been slowed down in recent weeks, but he did more than anyone could have expected in helping the Chiefs pull off big victories over Denver and Detroit.

Kansas City’s success has always been reliant on their running game, and even though Alex Smith has been playing well lately, they still need a reliable running attack to find any consistent success. Smith remains a low ceiling quarterback, and while this has hurt his teams in the postseason, his stability has proven to be a formula for consistent regular season success. He hasn’t thrown an interception during their six game winning streak, and he hasn’t eclipsed 260 yards passing in any game during that time. The Chiefs have won by getting off to early leads and controlling the game as the clock runs down, a formula they are much more capable of pulling off than the Texans.

This is an effective strategy, but it requires just as much from the defense as it does from the offense. And this is where Kansas City has really taken off. Their defense is playing as well as any in football over the past six weeks, shutting down opposing offenses and taking the pressure off of Smith and their running game.

This is the part that shouldn’t be particularly surprising, considering we’ve seen this from Kansas City before. Just two years ago they opened the season with nine straight wins on the strength of an elite defense, and they’ve rediscovered this dominance as this season has gone along. But we’ve also seen them fall off from this level of play, as they followed those nine wins with losses in six in their next eight, including a first round postseason exit. I’m not saying that this will happen again, but it’s definitely something to keep an eye on going forward. Kansas City should make the playoffs, but I don’t think there’s any reason to consider them one of the top teams in the league, despite how well they’ve been playing lately.

The Worst of the Best

In the two years that I've been sharing my thoughts on the NFL in this blog, I have made no secret of the fact that I am a fan of the Minnesota Vikings. I've often seen people express the belief that analysts should remove themselves from any partiality, that being a fan renders a person incapable of rendering sound judgment. And I've always thought that this was complete nonsense, something that sounds good in theory but never works out in practice. Every person who writes about sports does so because they enjoy sports, and the vast majority of people who enjoy sports do so through the lens of cheering for a particular team. There is no such thing as a truly impartial commentator, and those who pretend to not have an emotional stake are often even more hindered by their ignorance than those who are open with their personal feelings.

This is all tangential to the main point of this article, but it’s something I’ve been thinking about quite a bit lately. I believe that I can be rational in my analysis despite my biases. I am a Vikings fan, but I have no problem saying that their 8-3 record vastly overstates the quality of their team. I despise the Packers, but I didn’t shy from writing glowingly about Aaron Rodgers a few weeks ago (incidentally, right before the Packers started their downward tumble. I should have praised Rodgers years ago.)

Everyone who knows me knows that I am a Vikings fan. And most are also aware that I have a soft spot for the Steelers, the results of a lot of family ties to the Pittsburgh area. I follow them, and I cheer for them anytime they are facing an opponent other than Minnesota. Over the course of my life, this has actually been much easier than cheering for the Vikings, and there are times I almost regret that the Vikings are stuck first in my heart for the rest of my life.

This past weekend, however, cheering for the Steelers was one of the most frustrating experiences I’ve had as a football fan. I’ve cheered for elite football teams before, and I’ve cheered for bad football teams before, but there is something uniquely maddening about cheering for this year’s Steelers. With a bad or mediocre team, you understand what you’re getting into, and you never have to deal with the reality of unreasonable expectations. When they falter, it is only mildly frustrating, as it’s what you expected the entire time.

This Steelers team is something different. Injuries to Ben Roethlisberger and Le’Veon Bell have held them back, but even with Bell still out of the lineup over the past few weeks one thing has become very clear. This is the best offense in the NFL, loaded with weapons and orchestrated by a quarterback playing at as high a level as any in the league. This offense is championship caliber, and they showed it on Sunday as they carved apart an elite Seahawks defense.

On the defensive side of the ball, there is a ton of talent along their front seven. Cameron Heyward and Stephon Tuitt make up one of the more underrated defensive lines in the league, clearing space for veteran presences like James Harrison and Lawrence Timmons as well as developing youngsters like Ryan Shazier and Bud Dupree. They aren’t elite by any means, but with this offense, they should be more than enough to get this team into the conversation as a Super Bowl favorite.

But of course, the Steelers aren’t a Super Bowl favorite. They are 6-5, currently outside the playoff picture, and on Sunday they suffered a heartbreaking loss despite the dominance of their offense. The problem is their secondary, the worst in the league and quite possibly the worst I have ever seen. On Sunday there was absolutely nothing they could do to stop Seattle, with receivers running wide open on nearly every play giving Russell Wilson all he needed to pick them apart for five touchdown passes.

The loss was frustrating, but it also got me thinking about how a single unit can sink a team. And while the Steelers are an extreme example, they aren’t the only playoff contender being held back by one part of their roster. So I decided to put together a team, picking the worst units from the best teams in order to figure out what may sink these playoff contenders, or to see how they are covering their flaws to find success that just might be sustainable.

Quarterback: New York Jets

Brian Hoyer has been playing better of late, well enough to get Houston back into contention, and since I’m still not really sure how to handle the situations in Indianapolis and Denver, I’m left with the Jets almost by default. Fortunately, Ryan Fitzpatrick has done more than enough to earn this ranking, almost singlehandedly holding back this team from running away with a playoff spot.

I was a bit skeptical of the Jets at the start of the season, but all the moves they made over the past couple years look like they’ve really paid off. Darrelle Revis has been disappointing, but he is still an above average corner, protected by the best defensive line in the league. Any shortcomings here are more than made up for by the success of their additions on offense, revitalizing a unit that looked dead in the water just a couple years ago.

Brandon Marshall is in his sweet spot right now, enjoying a new situation for the first couple years before he and his team get sick of each other. The age he showed in Chicago last season has melted away, leaving a big, physical receiver who can dominate to win Fitzpatrick’s inaccurate throws. Complemented by Eric Decker, this gives the Jets the most underrated duo of receivers in the league, which works with the powerful running of Chris Ivory to lead to a balanced offense. All they really need from a quarterback is someone who can play efficient, distribute the ball smartly, and avoid any killer mistakes.

Fitzpatrick is, unfortunately, not that guy. He has a reputation as a reliable, intelligent veteran (hey, did you know he went to Harvard?), but in reality he is one of the most turnover prone quarterbacks in the league. He’s tied with Ryan Tannehill for the seventh most interceptions in the league, and he’s suffered a couple of fumbles as well. As long as he’s protecting the football, the Jets have a chance to beat anyone. But at this point it’s too much to hope that Fitzpatrick can change, and sooner or later he will attempt to force a play that his team doesn’t need him to make.

Wide Receiver: Carolina Panthers

It was very tempting to go with the Patriots on this, particularly after all the injuries they’ve suffered. Since I’m ranking these units based on expectations down the road, injuries are very much part of the picture, and the absence of Julian Edelman and the hobblings of Danny Amendola and Rob Gronkowski put New England in a very perilous position. They’ve found offensive success this year by getting the ball out of Brady’s hands quickly to receivers who win off the snap, and against Denver we saw what happens when they don’t have that luxury. If their receivers can’t win, Brady has to hold the ball, leaving him vulnerable to his banged up offensive line and forcing him to make more throws down the field, the clear weak point of his game.

But as bad as the situation in New England is, it still looks like they’ll have Gronkowski down the stretch, and that gives them an edge over the abysmal receiving corps of the Panthers. It’s remarkable that Ted Ginn is even still in the league, and it’s simply laughable that he is the top wide receiver for a playoff team. Kelvin Benjamin wasn’t as good last year as many people have convinced themselves, but he was a hell of a lot better than what the Panthers have found to replace him. Greg Olsen is vital to their passing game, but aside from him they don’t have a single pass catcher who deserves to step foot on an NFL field.

So how is it that a team with this receiving corps hasn’t lost a game? The short answer is Cam Newton. He is putting together a masterful season that deserves to be in the conversation for MVP (I would currently have him in a close race with Carson Palmer for runner up behind Brady), and he continues to tear defenses apart both as a runner and a passer. Despite what many believe, he is at his best when throwing from the pocket, delivering precise lasers that can find their way into even the small windows created by his receivers. At a certain point, against more talented defenses, the burden may become too much for him to bear, but for right now he has shown himself capable of doing anything the Panthers ask of him.

Running Back: New England Patriots

The Patriots may not have the worst receiving corps, but following the loss of Dion Lewis they do have the worst running back group. This was never a top of the line unit to begin with, and even with Lewis healthy they were more dangerous as receivers out of the backfield than as runners. But without Lewis they are left completely reliant on LeGarrette Blount, a player who, while very good at what he does, is extremely limited as a player. He can pound the ball straight ahead, but his lack of straight line speed and change of direction leaves the running game very one dimensional.

This is why the thinness of New England’s receiving corps really hurts them in way it doesn't to Carolina. The Panthers can handle an unreliable passing game thanks to the running prowess of Newton and Jonathan Stewart, but all season New England used their receiving corps as a substitute for the running game. Their quick passes allowed them to move the ball in small chunks and keep the clock running, something they will now need to rely more on the running game to provide. It isn’t a coincidence that they couldn’t hold a fourteen point fourth quarter lead against the Broncos last week. Without running backs they can trust to move the ball the Patriots became dependent solely on their passing game, and without the receivers to win off the line of scrimmage they will now be forced to shift their focus back to their shaky running attack.

Offensive Line: Seattle Seahawks

There were a lot of possible choices for this one. The top of the league is filled with teams struggling across the front, largely because the entire league is filled with teams struggling across the front. Offensive line talent is in an extremely dark place, and I could easily have selected Denver, Minnesota, or New England as well.

But I decided to go with Seattle, a team that has slowly lost pieces from what was the weakest part of their roster when they won the Super Bowl two years ago. They lost Breno Giacomini and James Carpenter to free agency, and they traded away Max Unger to get Jimmy Graham. They are now starting two converted defenders on the right side of their line, and it definitely shows.

The flaws on the line are obvious when watching them play, but they don’t seem to show up in the numbers. Despite their problems on the line, Seattle’s offense ranks second in rushing DVOA and seventh throwing the ball, good for fourth total. And like Carolina, the explanation comes down to their quarterback. Anyone who still has doubts about whether or not Russell Wilson is a top quarterback in the league needs to shut up and watch them play. He tears defenses apart on a weekly basis, whether operating in the pocket, scrambling out to the side, or keeping the ball on a designed run. He is Seattle’s offense, and his elusiveness and playmaking ability neutralize the shabby line in front of him.

Pass Rush: Arizona Cardinals

This has been a problem in Arizona for years now, and just because they’ve made some positive strides doesn’t mean things are suddenly great. The recent success of Dwight Freeney is a great story, but it doesn’t change the fact that he’s a 35 year old pass rusher who hasn’t eclipsed five sacks in a season since 2011. The fact that he is on the Cardinals roster right now, much less playing a major role, is an indictment of the players they have in an edge rushing role.

Pass rushing has evolved over the past couple years, and teams are no longer as dependent on edge players. Arizona is a perfect example of this, especially a couple years ago when they had Daryl Washington in the middle to complement Calais Campbell as an interior rusher. But the edge is still the easiest place to get consistent pressure, and it’s the main reason Arizona is 27^th in the league in sacks this season. Markus Golden and Alex Okafor simply aren’t good enough to win consistently on the edge.

Of course, the lack of a pass rush certainly isn’t hurting Arizona’s defense, ranked fourth overall in DVOA right now. They don’t get after the quarterback, but with the best secondary in the league they often don’t have to. Patrick Peterson has bounced back after a down season in 2014, and Tyrann Mathieu is developing into a weapon every bit as dangerous as he was in college. The strength of their secondary gives them the freedom to be more aggressive with blitzes, and it helps them generate more pressure than the talent on their roster would otherwise be able to. A dominant pass rush is the easiest way to build a strong defense, but Arizona is proving that it is not a necessity.

Defensive Interior: Indianapolis Colts

The Colts have been knocked out of the playoffs the past two seasons by the rushing game of New England (see above), and they really haven’t done anything to fix the middle of their defense. They found some brief early season success thanks to rookie Henry Anderson, but with him on injured reserve they’re back to their anonymous defensive line.

The struggles of the defensive front puts even more pressure on Indianapolis’s secondary. The safety combination of Mike Adams and Dwight Lowry has been forced to become even more aggressive to cover the holes in their front seven, which has in turn forced them to play more aggressive with cornerbacks Greg Toler and Vontae Davis. Davis is capable of playing at an All Pro level, but he is one of the more inconsistent cornerbacks in the league.

The weakness of Indianapolis’s front puts a strain on their entire defense, and when Davis isn’t playing at his best they are vulnerable at every level because of it. Their only hope is the pass rush they get from Trent Cole and Robert Mathis, a pair of veterans who are no longer capable of dominating on a play by play basis. Indianapolis’s defense knocked them out of the playoffs the past two years, and even though their offense has been a bigger source of problems so far this season, it will again be their defense that does them in.

Secondary: Pittsburgh Steelers

I already said most of what I needed to above, so I’ll just end with this. The Steelers have occasionally been able to compensate for their back end woes by generating pressure on the quarterback, but their front seven is too inconsistent to protect them from this disaster. This is a major vulnerability, and even though I think they will still make the playoffs, it will hold them back from doing anything once the postseason arrives. Their offense can keep them in games against opponents like Cleveland, but if they ever face a good quarterback throwing to competent receivers, there is simply nothing they can do to protect themselves. Ignore the secondary and the Steelers are probably the best team in the league, but as a whole, they might not be among the top ten.