The Race For Number One

 

There are six weeks left in the season, and this is the time when the race for the playoffs starts to get interesting. The contenders have separated themselves from the pretenders, and now is the chance for the top teams to pull away and earn their way into the postseason. Over the next six weeks we’ll see game after game of exciting meaningful football, as team by team the twelve playoff spots are filled.

Let’s take a look at where things stand right now. In the AFC, well, the division races aren’t super interesting. The Patriots are undefeated with a five game lead over the Bills and the Jets, and they could conceivably clinch the division this weekend. The Broncos are 8-2 with a three game lead over the Chiefs, and Cincinnati is two games ahead of Pittsburgh with the tiebreaker edge. The Wild Card race is a bit more interesting, though if the Steelers can keep Ben Roethlisberger healthy, they look like they’ll run away with the five seed.

Things aren’t much more competitive in the NFC. The Panthers have run away with the division, and with the schedule they have coming up, it’s hard to see them losing out on the top seed. Things could get interesting if Seattle makes a run at the NFC West, but Arizona’s three game lead seems pretty safe. Green Bay’s recent struggles have made things far more competitive than they should be in the NFC North, but I still think they’ll beat Minnesota pretty handily in the end.

So with six weeks left, it feels pretty safe to set the playoffs up as follows:

AFC                                                                            NFC

1. New England                                                          1. Carolina

2. Denver/Cincinnati                                                   2. Arizona

3. Denver/Cincinnati                                                   3. Green Bay

4. AFC South                                                              4. NFC East

5. Pittsburgh                                                                5. Minnesota/Seattle/Atlanta

6. Buffalo/Jets/Kansas City                                        6. Minnesota/Seattle/Atlanta

There are a few things worth watching, but for the most part the playoff field is not particularly wide open. I suppose you could get invested in the battles in the NFC East and AFC South, but outside of that there is very little drama present in this year’s races.

Of course, there’s another race to watch at this time of year, and to our great luck, it is going to be very competitive this season. I am of course talking about the race for the first overall pick. And with fourteen teams having between two and four wins, this could be one of the great races of our lifetime.

I really would like to break down every team in contention, but with so many great options to choose from, I’m going to have to restrict myself to teams I believe have a legitimate shot. It’s very possible that the team that ends up with the first pick is not on this list, but in the end it will most likely be one of these ten teams.

As a reminder, draft order is decided based on reverse order of finish. For teams that finish with the same record, the higher pick goes to the team with the easier strength of schedule. So the teams below with the best current chance are the teams with the worst records and the easiest schedules.

Detroit Lions

Record: 4-7

Strength of Schedule: .515

Remaining Opponents: Green Bay, @St Louis, @New Orleans, San Francisco, @Chicago

The first overall pick seems suddenly out of reach for the Lions, winners of three straight games. They are playing their best football of the season right now, and it’s not impossible to imagine them getting another two or three wins down the stretch. Their biggest problem early in the season was on the offensive line, and even though it’s still far from a strength, it has come together well enough to allow the stars on their offense to flash their abilities.

Offensive line is also what they should address with their first draft pick. I could also conceivably see them going for a piece on their suddenly shorthanded defense, perhaps a cornerback to put opposite Darius Slay or a defensive lineman to support Ziggy Ansah. But a lineman could fix the inconsistency of their offensive line and turn them into one of the better units in the league. Grab someone like Laremy Tunsil or Ronnie Stanley, plug them in at left tackle, and slide Reilly Reiff over to the right side, and this has the look of a top notch line, the sort that could carry this team back to the playoffs regardless of what becomes of their defense.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Record: 4-6

Strength of Schedule: .491

Remaining Opponents: San Diego, @Tennessee, Indianapolis, Atlanta, @New Orleans, @Houston

The next two weeks are crucial for Jacksonville. If they want any hope of winning the first overall pick, they need to find a way to lose to both San Diego and Tennessee. Of course, Jaguars fans have other ideas, since as a member of the AFC South, they are in that special place where they are still alive for both the division and the worst record in the league.

Honestly, I don’t think there’s any chance the Jaguars end up with the first overall pick. There’s too much talent on the offensive side of the ball, and their schedule is too easy for them to go winless. But I wanted to talk about them, because even if they don’t end up with the top pick, they could still be in position to get a selection in the top five or the top ten. Ad of all the potential prospect-team matchups, I can’t think of any that would be more perfect than Joey Bosa going to Jacksonville.

The Jaguars have a lot of talent on offense, and even though they could use some help on their line, I think their best bet is to spend their first pick on defense. They did the same last year with Dante Fowler, who unfortunately lost out on his rookie season due to a knee injury. He’ll be back next year, and there would be nothing better than pairing him with another elite young pass rusher. Assuming they keep Gus Bradley around (which they should), their defense will continue to run the same scheme as Seattle’s, and these two players would absolutely thrive in that system. I see a lot of Michael Bennett in Bosa, and Fowler can become a rich man’s Cliff Avril, giving them two versatile pass rushers who can attack from any angle. It’s probably out of reach, but this has to be the dream scenario for a team capable of taking a massive step forward next year.

Miami Dolphins

Record: 4-6

Strength of Schedule: .475

Remaining Opponents: @Jets, Baltimore, Giants, @San Diego, Indianapolis, New England

Remember that brief stretch where we thought that replacing their coach had turned things around for Miami? Yeah, it turns out that was just the luck of playing two straight AFC South opponents. Since then they’ve lost three of four, and they’ve looked like the same team that struggled through the early part of the season. Their running game isn’t working, their defensive line isn’t controlling games, and Ryan Tannehill has regressed severely since receiving his new contract.

In order to receive the first overall pick, the Dolphins will need to lose their next six games. That should be doable for this team, and their strength of schedule will give them a fighting chance in any tiebreaker situation. If they do get the first pick, things become a bit trickier from there. They don’t need a defensive lineman, and they are probably comfortable at offensive tackle as well. As bad as Tannehill has been, they can’t replace him this offseason. Their best option would probably be to take an inside linebacker like Myles Jack or Jaylon Smith, even though that isn’t a position of particularly great value. Both are fantastic players however, and if their defensive line can live up to its potential, there will be plenty of opportunities for them to make plays.

Washington Redskins

Record: 4-6

Strength of Schedule: .500

Remaining Opponents:

Ugh. That’s all I can really say about the fact that Washington is still very much alive in the NFC East race. This is not a good football team, but they’re occasionally capable of playing at a high enough level to compete with anyone. They can also be blown out by anyone, all depending on the performance of Kirk Cousins. Cousins can certainly make some good plays, but he also turns the ball over at an absurd rate. If he goes on a bad run, this team could give away their final six games, and they have a soft enough schedule that they could win a tiebreaker for the first selection.

There are a lot of holes that need to be filled on this team. Quarterback is the obvious one, and there could be a few options available at the top of the draft. They could also use improvement in their secondary, where the best options available are Jalen Ramsey or Vernon Hargreaves. This team is sorely lacking top talent after giving away three first round picks for Robert Griffin III, and they really need to hit in this year’s draft.

San Francisco 49ers

Record: 3-7

Strength of Schedule: .534

Remaining Opponents: Arizona, @Chicago, @Cleveland, Cincinnati, @Detroit, St Louis

How the mighty have fallen. It’s amazing just how quickly losing several Pro Bowl players and one of the best football coaches in the world can demolish a team, but here we are. San Francisco is truly awful, worse than they should probably be with the talent still on their roster, and they could conceivably finish the season with three or four wins. The only game they might be the favorites in is Cleveland, and even that is on the road. The relatively tough schedule will hurt them if it comes down to a tiebreaker, but with some luck they could still end up with the top pick.

There are multiple holes on this roster that could be filled in the top ten. They could use an offensive tackle like Tunsil or Stanley if Anthony Davis doesn’t unretire, and even though there are no glaring weaknesses on their defense, they could always use a player like Jaylon Smith or Robert Nkemdiche.

But the number one need is pretty obvious. This is one team that could reasonably claim they’re a quarterback away from contention, and there are a couple of options available. The most obvious choice would be Jared Goff, a local quarterback who would provide nice symmetry after the last time they had the top pick, when they passed up local Cal prospect Aaron Rodgers for Alex Smith. I’m not saying Goff will turn into Rodgers, but he’s the best quarterback I’ve seen in college football this season, and he is well worth using the top pick on.

Tennessee Titans

Record: 2-8

Strength of Schedule: .522

Remaining Opponents: Oakland, Jacksonville, @Jets, @Patriots, Texans, @Colts

Tennessee is one of those teams that, when I look at their record, I simply don’t understand how they’ve won as few games as they have. I really like a lot of the pieces on this roster, on both sides of the ball, and it perplexes me how they haven’t put together a more complete team. Of course, I’ve felt the exact same way about them over the past few seasons, so maybe this is the sort of thing I should start expecting.

When it comes to earning the first pick, they have a couple obstacles to overcome. The first is their remaining opponents which, with three games remaining against the AFC South, are littered with opportunities for wins. The second is their strength of schedule, surprisingly tough for a team in a division as bad as theirs. Matchups against both Carolina and New England will hurt them if it comes to a tiebreaker, meaning they probably can’t afford even one win down the stretch.

Their biggest weakness is on the offensive line, but they spent first round picks on Jonathan Cooper and Taylor Lewan in 2013 and 2014, so I can’t see them going that route again. Their defensive front is strong, and they have no need at quarterback. The one position that makes a lot of sense both in terms of the talent on their roster and the prospects available is cornerback. Even if they don’t get the first pick, they should have a chance at one of Ramsey and Hargreaves, giving them an option to support, and eventually replace, the perennially underappreciated Jason McCourtey.

Baltimore Ravens

Record: 3-7

Strength of Schedule: .513

Remaining Opponents: @Cleveland, @Miami, Seattle, Kansas City, Pittsburgh, @Cincinatti

“Most people expect the top selection to go to the worst team, but more often than not it goes to a team that had decent expectations coming into the season, a team that struggles early and gives up down the stretch.”

I wrote that two weeks ago. At the time I was talking about the Lions, but they proved me wrong and pulled things together. But it looks like we’ve found a new contender in the Baltimore Ravens, a team that was among many people’s Super Bowl picks prior to the season. They were never that good, and some bad luck early in the year turned into a total collapse. Injuries have only made things worse, and they will have to play the rest of the season without Joe Flacco, Terrell Suggs, Justin Forsett, and Steve Smith. Their next two weeks offer opportunities for a win to even this depleted team, but after that they face four straight opponents in contention for the playoffs, and it’s very possible to imagine them running off six straight losses.

As someone who openly hates the Ravens, this really frustrates me. I think they have enough pride in this organization that they’ll at least try to play spoiler down the stretch, but there is only so much they can do with Matt Schaub at quarterback. One way or another they are going to end up with a top pick, giving them a chance to restock their aging defense with talent. Grab a pass rusher to take over for Suggs and Dumervil, or a cornerback to complement Jimmy Smith once he gets fully healthy next year. With the quarterback position settled, they have the luxury of just grabbing the best player. And as miserable as this season has been, it will work out in the long run for one of the most consistent good teams in the league.

Dallas Cowboys

Record: 3-8

Strength of Schedule: .537

Remaining Opponents: @Washington, @Green Bay, Jets, @Buffalo, Washington

How things can change in a couple days. On Monday the Cowboys were a popular pick for a late season run, bolstered by a weak division, an easy schedule, and the return of Tony Romo. Now, after being embarrassed on Thanksgiving by Carolina and losing Romo for the rest of the season, their hopes of the division are gone, and they suddenly find themselves in excellent shape to end up with the top pick.

Two games against Washington give them opportunities to add a win, and their strength of schedule means they probably have to go winless the rest of the way to have any shot. Even with Matt Cassel at quarterback the rest of the way, I don’t think that’s particularly likely. But if they do end up with the top pick, they’ll have an interesting decision to make. They have some nice young pieces already on defense, and they certainly don’t need an offensive lineman. Their biggest obstacle on a yearly basis is the health of Romo, something that won’t get any better as he continues to age.

I haven’t watched much Paxton Lynch, but if he does end up as a top ten prospect, Dallas could be an ideal destination. This could be the rare case where drafting a quarterback to develop from the bench is actually worthwhile, giving them a path for the future while also potentially bolstering their depth. Two years ago they reportedly gave serious consideration to spending their first pick on Johnny Manziel, and even though it’s clear now that they made the correct decision, they have already shown signs that they are willing to draft for long term needs rather than something more immediate.

Cleveland Browns

Record: 2-8

Strength of Schedule: .519

Remaining Opponents: Baltimore, Cincinnati, San Francisco, @Seattle, @Kansas City, Pittsburgh

A couple weeks ago in my midseason review, I wrote that while the Browns are still bad at football, at least now they’re fun to watch. Well, I take that back. The Browns aren’t good, and they aren’t fun, and it’s absolutely ridiculous that they have a ntionally tellivised game this week. The drama surrounding Johnny Manziel is just tiring at this point, made even more so by the fact that even at his best he’s been merely a league average quarterback.

Their schedule has a couple winnable games, but that doesn’t mean much for a team like this. I could easily see them losing out and running away with the top pick. Of course, even if they get the first pick, I’m not sure what they’re supposed to do with it. They need a quarterback, but after using a first round pick on one in both 2012 and 2014, I’m not sure if they can continue to use resources on that spot.

On this roster they’d be smart to simply take the best player available, perhaps another defensive lineman to put beside last year’s first pick Danny Shelton in the hopes of developing some part of their roster that could be called a strength. Whether that’s Bosa or Nkemdiche, or if they decide to strengthen their front with a linebacker like Smith, it probably doesn’t matter. Their player development is terrible no matter what they do, and the franchise environment is simply toxic. It’s possible to turn that around as Oakland is showing this year, but it’s also possible to waste years failing to do so, as Oakland showed over the past decade.

San Diego Chargers

Record: 2-8

Strength of Schedule: .497

Remaining Opponents: @Jacksonville, Denver, @Kansas City, Miami, @Oakland, @Denver

Even people who were pessimistic about San Diego’s chances this season couldn’t have expected things to be this bad. Of course, no one expected them to suffer from injuries like they have. Their offensive line is in pieces, Keenan Allen is out for the year, and Eric Weddle has been fighting through injuries for the past month. The only player they’ve been able to keep consistently healthy is Philip Rivers, and as good as he is, he can’t carry a team by himself. They’re still not healthy, and they could conceivably keep losing games and finish the season with only two or three wins.

The biggest problem they need to address this offseason is depth, but if they end up with a high draft pick, their best bet would be to grab someone for their defense. Brandon Flowers has been disappointing, and they could use a cornerback like Vernon Hargreaves or Jalen Ramsey. But the best prospects are available on the defensive line, and I could see them being a good fit for Nkemdiche. Trading back would also be a good option, but that is always harder than it sounds, especially when there’s no top of the line prospect teams are willing to sell the farm for. Adding one good piece and getting healthy could definitely turn things around for San Diego, and I could see this being a brief stop in the top ten of the draft.

2015 Midseason Review Part Two

Earlier this week I brought you the first half of my midseason preview, covering the teams who probably won’t end up making the playoffs. Today I’m covering the other half of the league, the teams who will be competing down the stretch for a postseason berth. Again I’ve separated them into tiers. The first is made up of the teams who have essentially already clinched a spot, the teams who would have to suffer historic collapses in order to be left out in January. The final tier is made up of the teams who will be fighting for the last few spots. And in between I have a very special tier for a very special group of teams who, through some breaks that definitely don’t show a flaw in the entire system, still have a chance of making the postseason.

Again, these rankings are tier by tier. I suppose you could read into the order of the teams within each tier, but you probably shouldn’t spend more than fifteen seconds thinking about it. I certainly didn’t.

Locks

New England Patriots (8-0)

The Patriots have been the best team in the league so far this year, as their record suggests. Tom Brady has been phenomenal and would probably get my MVP vote if the season ended today and I had an MVP vote. He’s reached a new level of efficiency distributing the ball to a corps of weapons constructed to perfectly fit his skills. Even the issues on the offensive line haven’t slowed them down, as Brady continues to get the ball out too quick for any pass rush to have an effect.

The Patriots are fantastic, but let’s stop getting ahead of ourselves. They are not as good as the team in 2007 was. They are not going to go undefeated. Their defense is built on a flimsy foundation of a pass rush which, while very good, isn’t dominant or versatile enough to carry this mediocre secondary. Someone will exploit it sooner or later, and they’ll drop a game or two down the stretch. But even if they lose a couple, they are still the most dangerous team in the league, and right now they are the clear favorites to win the Super Bowl.

Cincinnati Bengals (8-0)

I’ve been skeptical for a while on the Bengals, and even though I’m not willing to admit that they’re as good as their record suggests, I am going to surrender to the math and say that they are going to win the AFC North. A three and a half game lead with the tiebreaker in hand is as good as it gets halfway through the year, and even if my concerns about their defense catch up to them or the wax finally melts on Andy Dalton’s wings, their last two victories have given them enough cushion that they can coast into the playoffs.

They are still not up to the level of the Patriots, and with the Broncos picking it up on offense, they find themselves in a desperate race for the number two seed. Right now the Bengals are firing on all cylinders, and they will need to continue to do so down the stretch if they have any hope of finally taking the next step. At the level they’re playing right now, they can absolutely compete for a championship. They just have to hope that things continue to go their way.

Carolina Panthers (8-0)

The other undefeated team in the league, it’s still a little perplexing how Carolina has performed well so far. Cam Newton is fantastic, but he isn’t good enough to carry an offense on his own, and even the improvement of their line hasn’t been enough to explain their success on offense this season. They are getting contributions from players we never saw coming, solid production from Ted Ginn and superstar numbers from Greg Olsen.

The schedule has certainly helped, but it’s not going to get any harder from here, and Carolina should have no trouble coasting into the playoffs. Once they get there, things may be different, as they are forced to fight through at least three straight opponents with talent that surpasses theirs. But I’ve counted the Panthers out far too frequently, and this may be the sort of roster that can continue to surprise people, built around depth that sustains them when more shallow teams hit bumps along the road.

Denver Broncos (7-1)

The Broncos slipped up last week against the Colts, but we shouldn’t allow ourselves to forget that their victory the week before against the Packers was possibly the most impressive game any team has played this year. Their defense has been the best in the league from the first snap of the ball, but what they did to hold Aaron Rodgers to 77 passing yards was a historically great performance. The talent on this unit is awe inspiring, built from every possible source you can imagine. A high drafted superstar in Von Miller, an undrafted steal in Chris Harris, high priced veteran free agents like Aqib Talib and DeMarcus Ware, and unheralded role players like Brandon Marshall and Derek Wolfe. There are no holes in this defense, and they will continue to be an all time great unit as the season goes along.

The concerns over the first six games were entirely on the offensive side of the ball. After injuries limited him down the stretch last year, Peyton Manning came back at the start of 2015 looking like he didn’t belong in the NFL. There was no zip to his passes, and it led to him forcing the ball into windows he simply couldn’t hit. He was bad enough that many were willing to write the Broncos off despite their historic defense, until their bye restored the life to Manning’s arm. He still isn’t close to what he was even two years ago, but he is at least functional physically, and with his mind and Denver’s defense, that’s enough to make them Super Bowl contenders again.

Green Bay Packers (6-2)

There is something wrong with the Packers offense right now, but fortunately they have eight weeks to get it figured out before it actually matters. Winning the first six isn’t a guarantee of a playoff spot, but it would require a historic collapse for the Packers to drop out now, the sort we aren’t going to see from a team with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback. They may have to fight a little harder, and they probably won’t be able to earn home field advantage, but they are still the best team in the NFC North, and they have to be considered favorites to get a first round bye.

Of course, even if they pull their offense out of its current skid, they aren’t going to be the same team we’ve grown to fear over the past few years. The loss of Jordy Nelson was devastating, and there is something wrong physically with Eddie Lacy, either an injury or a weight issue or some combination of both. In addition to all this, their offensive line has regressed after playing above their heads last year, leaving Rodgers to shoulder even more of the offense than usual. He’s still the best quarterback in the league, and he’s still capable of destroying defenses in ways no other player in the league can, but without the easy options available to him on every play, the Packers will have to settle for only occasional flashes of greatness.

AFC South

Indianapolis Colts (4-5)

I just don’t know what to think anymore. I’ve spent the entire season waiting for the Colts to turn it around, and last week it looked like it was about to happen. Their defense hasn’t been good all year, but it’s solid enough that it can ride a good offense to the playoffs. The problem has been offense, and they finally got it going on Sunday against Denver, the best defense in the league. Andrew Luck looked good, their offensive line held up, and their receivers lived up to expectations for the first time all year.

And then on Tuesday the news broke that Luck had suffered a lacerated kidney, an injury that will keep him out anywhere between two and six weeks. Half of their wins this season have come with Matt Hasselbeck under center, but that doesn’t change how much the loss of Luck hurts them. They’ll still probably win the division, thanks to the fact that no other AFC South team can beat them, but at this point I think we should probably get over any notions that this team will put it together enough to compete when the playoffs come around.

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6)

Here’s something you may not realize: Jacksonville’s offense is really good. More importantly, they’re only going to get better. The young talent at the skill positions on this team is staggering, headlined by Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns at wide receiver and bolstered by rookie running back TJ Yeldon, who has shrugged off draft night criticisms to prove that he was absolutely worth a second round pick. Of course, skill position talent only means so much if there isn’t a quarterback to get them the ball, and it’s starting to look like Bortles might be that guy. He still has plenty of rough patches, but he is significantly improved on last year and is in an excellent position to continue to get better with the loads of talent that surround him.

The Jaguars are still a two win team, and this is normally where I’d talk about how even their defense has some hope to the future, getting Dante Fowler back healthy next year as essentially an extra first round pick. But next year is still next year, and with the mess in the AFC South, the Jaguars still have hope for this year. They have been the second best team in the division through the first eight games, and with Andrew Luck down for the foreseeable future, they have the best shot of leaping the Colts to claim the division title. I don’t think it’s going to happen, but there is definitely enough talent here for a late season surge, earning them possibly the first of many playoff berths to come. 

Houston Texans (3-5)

The Texans have a bye this week, which is the kindest thing that has been done to the city of Houston since Oklahoma City decided to give them James Harden for a bag of seeds. There is no team in the league that is less fun to watch this year than Houston, which is strange since they have two of the league’s most fun to watch players in JJ Watt and DeAndre Hopkins.

Both can absolutely dominate a game, but both play at positions where individual dominance can only go so far. Even when they’re dominating, it only makes a difference on plays here or there, and the rest of the time we’re watching the other players on this team drag them down into the abyss. Fortunately, we are into the second half of the season, and in eight short weeks the city of Houston will once again be free from having to watch this team. Because even though they are technically still in contention for the division, nothing short of a Herculean effort from their two stars will earn them extra games this year.

Tennessee Titans (2-6)

The Titans are not as bad as their record indicates. They certainly aren’t bad enough that their coach needed to be fired, though you could make an argument they were just correcting the mistake they made hiring Wisenhunt in the first place. Still, over the first seven weeks they probably should have had two or three victories, after outplaying both the Colts and the Bills in heartbreaking losses.

The Titans won their first game under Mike Mularkey, and they’re talented enough that they could grab a few more wins down the stretch. Under any other circumstances that would matter very little in the grand scheme of things, but the AFC South is the one division where a 2-6 team has a chance to turn things around and make the playoffs. Their defense is already playing at a high enough level to get them there, and if they can keep Marcus Mariota healthy and effective, a playoff berth is surprisingly within reach.

Contenders

Arizona Cardinals (6-2)

The Cardinals were one of the most divisive teams coming into the season, with some pegging them as a bottom ten team and others as a playoff contender. Yet somehow they have outperformed even the highest expectations and currently sit atop the NFC West. Their defense has been strong despite the loss of coordinator Todd Bowles, helped by a bounceback year from Patrick Peterson. They still have issues getting after the quarterback, but right now their secondary is the best in the league, and that’s enough to cover issues on their front line.

The real surprise has been on the offensive side, where they’ve managed to cobble together a collection of unwanted veterans into one of the most dangerous attacks in the league. It seems strange that four years ago Carson Palmer actually announced his intention to retire, before coming back when the Bengals traded him to Oakland. He is now having the best season of his career, leading an explosive deep passing attack bolstered by the resurgence of Chris Johnson behind him. This offense shouldn’t be working as well as it has, and even though I’m still skeptical, we’re quickly reaching the point where it’s difficult to dismiss it as a fluke.

Minnesota Vikings (6-2)

The Vikings have the same record as the Packers, so I understand if people are upset that I’ve placed them in two separate tiers. As a Vikings fan myself, I know I’d be a bit disgruntled if I read someone else do the same. But as an analyst, I can’t deny that that the Packers are the better team. The Vikings are sitting in a very good position right now, with a two game lead in the Wild Card race and a tiebreaker over St Louis, one of the teams chasing them. Their defense is playing as well as any non-Denver team in the league, and Adrian Peterson looks like his old self after some early season struggles.

All that said, there are plenty of reasons to be skeptical about their playoff chances. Realistically they probably need to win only four of their final eight games to get in, but their schedule makes even this an optimistic projection. Over the next five weeks they play Oakland, Green Bay, Atlanta, Seattle, and Arizona, five straight opponents with a winning record after playing only one during the first half of the season.

It’s an uphill climb, but there is one way the Vikings might make it work. Their defense has been great so far, and their running game has been solid, but they’ve been held back by their passing attack. The emergence of Stefon Diggs has helped pick things up over the past few weeks, but they are still facing the reality that Teddy Bridgewater hasn’t taken the step forward we all expected. He hasn’t been as bad as some people have suggested, but they are going to need him to play a lot better to win over the next few weeks. He’s been leaving plays on the field all year, and they’ve survived thanks to the rest of the team, a luxury they will not have going forward.

Atlanta Falcons (6-3)

Atlanta’s record indicates that they’ve slowed down after a hot start, but they’ve been the same team from the first victory to the most recent loss. They’ve dropped three of their past four after winning their first five, all against very suspect competition, and there is a wave of panic starting among Falcons fans, worried that their early season success was just a flash in the pan.

It’s hard not to see where they’re coming from. Looking back, this recent downturn is something we should have seen coming. Atlanta won their first five, but aside from a blowout win against Houston they were all very competitive games, and it only took a minor increase in the difficulty of their schedule and some reversal of luck for things to turn against them. Davonta Freeman was a good story at the beginning of the year, but he had only 12 yards in last week’s game, and he hasn’t had a rushing touchdown in three weeks. There are flaws with this team that their early season success covered up, and there are strengths that have been lost in their more recent struggles. They’ll find balance going forward, but with a more difficult schedule down the stretch, they are going to have a difficult time staying at the head of the Wild Card race.

Seattle Seahawks (4-4)

With a .500 record coming out of their bye, Seattle is both still in the mix for the playoffs and far back from where they expected to be. After two straight Super Bowl appearances, the Seahawks were the favorites in the NFC coming into the season, yet if the playoffs started today they would be on the outside looking in. There are small problems all over their roster, but the biggest issue is their offensive line, among the worst in the league. They aren’t able to open holes in the running game, and Russell Wilson is having to scramble for his life even more the normal this season.

The good news for Seahawks fans is that this team appears to be slowly pulling things together. Their line is inexperienced, but with every game they play they seem to get a little better. And their defense is still one of the top units in the league, if they can eliminate some of the mental lapses that plagued them early in the season. The Seahawks have an uphill road to climb, but they should still be considered a favorite to grab a playoff spot.

New York Jets (5-4)

In Part One of my preview I said that the Jets had earned a playoff berth almost by default, and even after their Thursday night loss to the Bills, I’m not going to back down. This is a flawed team, but so are the teams that are chasing them, and with an easy schedule ahead the Jets should be able to close out the season strong and earn their way into the postseason.

The results so far may be a small surprise, but nothing about this Jets team looks any different than we expected. Their offense is built around a deep and solid core that supports a shaky quarterback situation, and their defense destroys opposing offensive lines with reckless abandon. Nothing about that is shocking, and there is no reason we should expect that to change down the stretch. The Jets aren’t going to make some final push to challenge New England for the division, and they’re not going to fall back to be leapfrogged by the Dolphins or the Bills. They are going to finish with nine or ten wins, and they have a decent chance of a favorable first round matchup against whoever rolls on top of the AFC South.

New York Giants (5-4)

No team has gotten luckier this year than the Giants. At the end of last season they were very clearly the third best team in their division, yet halfway through 2015—without really doing anything to improve themselves—they are the clear favorites to emerge as champions of the NFC East. It started in the offseason when Chip Kelly burned down the Eagles for insurance money, then continued into the regular season when Tony Romo and Dez Bryant went down for the Cowboys. This is the exact sort of luck that propels a team into a surprising playoff berth, and we all know what the Giants can do with that.

They do deserve a little credit for playing slightly above expectations. Eli Manning looks really good this year, and if they can get Victor Cruz back to his old self, their offense can become one of the more dangerous units in the league. They’ve found pieces to bolster their defensive line, and somehow they’re holding it together on the back end. A deep playoff run looks like it should be out of reach for them, but I’m not going to count this team out anytime soon.

St Louis Rams (4-4)

I feel like being honest here, so I’ll just come out and say it. The only reason the Rams are in this category is because I wanted sixteen teams in each of my previews. After last weekend’s loss to Minnesota, the road is very much uphill for the Rams, a team that pulled off a couple of interesting early season wins but remains the flawed and limited group that wins between six and eight games every single year.

Still, there is more to like about this version of the Rams than past incarnations. Their defensive line is still a nightmare, and the other pieces of their defense are starting to come together as well, but where they’ve really stepped forward is on offense. It wouldn’t be unfair to say that the entire unit is built around two players doing spectacular things, but when those two players are Tavon Austin and Todd Gurley, that’s enough to make a functional offense. Gurley is already one of the best running backs in the league, and now that Brian Schottenheimer is not standing in his way, Austin has proven to be the versatile weapon we all expected. These two players are their only options on offense, and every defense is geared up specifically to go after the two of them, yet it still isn’t enough to slow them down. The Vikings managed to limit Gurley thanks to Linval Joseph giving possibly the best performance by a defensive tackle I have ever seen, but they were still vulnerable to Austin’s speed and skill on the outside. It’s not enough to get St Louis to the playoffs, but it’s something to build on, hopefully once they wise up and clear out their coaching staff.

2015 Midseason Review Part One

We are now nine weeks through the season, meaning every team in the NFL has played at least half their games. This is as good a time as any to check into these teams to see how they’re faring, how they’ve lived up to expectations or fallen short so far. It’s also a chance to fix up some of the predictions I made before the season (this may surprise you, but I’m not batting 1.000) and to make a whole host of new predictions that will fall apart over the next eight weeks.

I’ll be using the same method this year as I have during the past two, sorting each of the teams into tiers based on my thoughts on the likelihood of them making the postseason. Today I’m starting with the bottom half of the league, the teams who will most likely be watching from their couches with the rest of us when the playoffs start. I’ve split them up into three groups, first the teams who still have a sliver of hope, followed by those who might as well just give up, and finally the teams that I really don’t know how to list.

The order within each tier doesn’t mean that much, though if you want to take issue with that sort of minutia, I am always happy to argue with people on the internet.

Long Shots

Miami Dolphins (3-5)

That was fun for a little while, wasn’t it? After a brutal start to the season, the Dolphins finally cleared out Joe Philbin and replaced him with interim coach Dan Campbell. They responded by winning their next two games in decisive fashion, inspiring talk of a turnaround by a team that many (including me) expected to make the playoffs this year.

Two weeks later, they look like nothing has changed. It turns out that results against the Titans and the Texans aren’t really representative of what will happen to a team against actual NFL competition. Two straight losses have knocked the Dolphins back into the dregs of the AFC, and they’re schedule gets only marginally easier from here, depending on your opinion of their next two opponents Philadelphia and Dallas. There’s still some talent here, and if they can get Lamar Miller going again, they might be able to take advantage of a wide open AFC playoff field. Of course, there’s just as good a chance that they lose their next eight games and end up picking first overall.

Kansas City Chiefs (3-5)

The Kansas City Chiefs are still technically alive in the playoff hunt, which says far more about the AFC Wild Card race than it does about the Chiefs. Once Jamaal Charles went down for the season, most people assumed that this team would quickly fold as well. But they’ve hung in there, winning their past two games by virtue of facing Landry Jones and the Detroit Lions.

The schedule actually doesn’t get much tougher as, aside from the game this coming week in Denver, they don't face a single team that currently has a winning record. But there are no easy wins out there either, not for a team still struggling to find an identity in the wake of losing their star player. Their defense is both solid and flawed, as it has been for the past two years. Alex Smith is as nauseatingly conservative as ever, and even though their offensive line has been improving, it is still a constant threat to their offense. If everyone in the AFC continues to fall to pieces, Kansas City might be able to make a run. But in all likelihood the final Wild Card spot will go to the team that can find an extra gear they haven't shown so far, a gear the Chiefs simply do not have.

Philadelphia Eagles (4-4)

Before the season there was a pretty solid understanding about the Eagles. Their offseason rebuild would either be a wild success or a total disaster, but however it turned out, it would certainly be entertaining. The one thing no one saw coming was what ended up happening, the dull mediocrity of a team that has taken a small but significant step back. Sam Bradford is a more boring version of Nick Foles, DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews lack the explosiveness of LeSean McCoy, and Nelson Agholor hasn’t been close to the Jeremy Maclin replacement they expected.

There was some optimism surrounding the offense coming into the season, but most people understood that it was going to take a step back. The hope was that it would be competent enough to let their defense carry them to the next level. The struggles on offense have gotten most of the attention, but the real disappointment on this team has been their defense. The front seven is as good as everyone expected, but the secondary (Byron Maxwell in particular) has let them down. All in all, this is a team that perfectly reflects their record, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they match it over the second half of the year.

Baltimore Ravens (2-6)

One of the most popular Super Bowl picks coming into the season, the Ravens have been victims of terrible luck so far. Their six losses have come by a combined 30 points, and if even a couple of them had gone their way they’d be in the thick of the AFC Wild Card race. But instead they’re looking up at seven teams fighting for the final two spots, and they are as close as can get to sliding down into the next tier.

Only the expectations of the preseason and their misfortune are enough to convince me that there is still a sliver of hope. The Ravens have been unlucky, but they’ve also been pretty bad, their secondary showing very little improvement as it’s gotten healthy and their offense stuck somewhere between first gear and park. The talent and the expectations are still there for the most part, and the field is open enough that they could make a run. But to turn it around at this point they would almost need to win out, leaving an incredibly slim margin of error for a team that might not be very good.

Trash Heap

San Diego Chargers (2-7)

Injuries have gotten a lot of attention in San Diego, and it is absolutely deserved. No other team in the league has come close to the volume of injuries the Chargers have suffered, and only the Cowboys and the Steelers can really match the significance. Over the first few weeks it seemed like the Chargers were losing an offensive lineman with each series, then they were struggling to field a stable defense, and now they can’t find more than three healthy wide receivers. Keenan Allen was one of the most fun parts of the early season, but, since he’s a Charger, we’ll have to wait for next year to watch him again.

Chargers fans have plenty to be upset about when it comes to health, but let’s not let these injuries hide the fact that San Diego isn’t a particularly good football team. They are one of three teams with a winning percentage below .250, and both their victories have come against the other two. They’ve maintained an illusion of competence by keeping things close early in the season against quality opponents like Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and Minnesota, but even if the Chargers were at full strength, their lack of a running game and holes across their defensive unit would keep them from competing with the top teams in the AFC.

Cleveland Browns (2-7)

The Browns are actually kind of fun while they’re losing this year, which at least makes an improvement over past seasons. Josh McCown has been silently not terrible, though he’s still not as good as the numbers he’s putting up. And Johnny Manziel has actually looked halfway decent when he’s been on the field, impressing both with his abilities to make plays on the move and to deliver from the pocket (though if you want to see an argument for this not being the case, I highly recommend you read this).

Of course, this is still a 2-7 football team, and there are plenty of reasons why. Despite two talented runners in the backfield, Cleveland hasn’t found the consistency on offense to get their running game moving. They can’t stop the run on defense either, despite spending the twelfth overall pick on 340 pound Danny Shelton. Pleasant surprises like Mitchell Schwartz and Gary Barnidge aren’t enough to make up for the fact that the young talent on this team is still an utter mess, and that there is very little reason to be hopeful for the future.

Washington Redskins (3-5)

People seem to be of two minds when it comes to the Redskins. They either believe that Kirk Cousins is a total bum who doesn’t belong on the field, or they believe that he is a savior sent to rescue the team from the destruction wrought by Robert Griffin III. I seem to be among the small minority who believes that both quarterbacks are terrible, and that it really doesn’t matter which one this miserable team puts out on the field.

Cousins is a disaster whose occasional success running an NFL offense is hindered by the small flaw of him being the most turnover prone quarterback in NFL history. Griffin is a talented athlete who has coasted long enough on skill alone that a single year of NFL success convinced him he didn’t need to work to improve himself, a delusion he somehow still maintains. Put them together beneath a coach who has no idea what he’s doing and an owner who will happily take on the field controversy to distract from issues off the field, and you get a team that is as irrelevant now as they will be for the next three years.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5)

After an ugly start, Tampa Bay is starting to pull things together. They’ve won two of their past four, and they’ve been competitive in each of the losses, a far sight from their opening weekend thrashing at the hands of the Titans. Jameis Winston struggled mightily early on, and while he’s still not playing at a particularly high level, he’s showing signs of improvement with each and every week. Doug Martin looks like the player he was his rookie season, and even though Mike Evans had some ugly drops on Sunday (and also a couple more ugly drops, plus another ugly drop just in case you didn’t see the first bunch), he’s made plenty of spectacular plays as well.

The point of all that circuitous optimism? Tampa Bay has plenty to be hopeful for. Just not this season. They’ll scrounge together a few more wins against a gentle schedule, and then they’ll be in a good position to add more talent to their roster next year. This team is trending up, though not by enough to get the casual fan excited. Even so, they’ve got more to look forward to than a certain division rival.

New Orleans Saints (4-5)

I’m not sure there’s a team in the league right now more depressing than the Saints. There are definitely worse teams out there, and there are definitely more boring teams out there, but no one quite has New Orleans’s combination of dull mediocrity and hopelessness for the future. This team has spent the past two years doing everything within their power to try to make one final run with Drew Brees under center, and every move they’ve made has backfired.

Their defense has shown no signs of the unit that was quietly very good in 2013, and their offense has become stunningly bland with the departures of Darren Sproles and Jimmy Graham. They’ve put up points in volume over the past two weeks, but it has done very little to actually help their cause, as their defense just finds new ways to be inept each week. Theoretically they could make a run if their offense continues to click, but in the highly competitive NFC I think it’s safe to say this team will fade into indifference.

San Francisco 49ers (3-6)

Nope, not buying the Blaine Gabbert train. They beat the Falcons with their new quarterback, but that says far more about the Falcons than the 49ers. It’s incredible that I’m saying this about the team that had the most complete roster in the league two years ago, but there simply isn’t much left in the cupboards in San Francisco. The retirements that hit their defense are the obvious story, but the bigger problem has actually been on their offensive line. Losing Mike Iupati to free agency hurt, and the retirement of Anthony Davis left them perilously thin at a position that was once their greatest strength.

I don’t think that benching Colin Kaepernick was the correct decision, and I think it will ultimately hurt their team down the stretch. But I also think it’s clear by now that, whatever Kaepernick could have become, he is simply not an NFL level quarterback right now. He’s always relied mainly on arm strength and athleticism, and his mechanics have regressed to remove any accuracy he once had. The problems on the offensive line and in the receiving corps have helped highlight his shortcomings, but at this point San Francisco has to acknowledge the heart of the problem and move on from Kaepernick when the offseason arrives.

Chicago Bears (3-5)

The Bears aren’t a very good team, but they’re better than the public perception of them. For some reason people seem to have gotten it in their heads that the Bears are one of the worst teams in the league, the sort of team that is an embarrassment whenever they step on the field. This is far from the case. Chicago is perfectly competent in several areas of the game, held back only by their lack of a truly elite element.

The offense has never really rebounded from the high expectations coming into last season, but they have the potential to pull things together down the stretch. Alshon Jeffery is finally healthy, and he’s starting to dominate physically like he did two years ago. Matt Forte is dealing with some injury issues, but if he comes back close to full strength, this can be a dangerous offense again. The NFC is too competitive for them to get into the playoff hunt, but if their offense picks it up and their defense continues its quiet competence, they can make a run at a .500 record.

Detroit Lions (1-7)

I didn’t have high expectations for Detroit, but I never imagined it would get this bad. Only the Dolphins fell apart faster than the Lions this year, and I can’t imagine they have the same sort of turnaround in them. Even if they did, it would be too little too late for a team that looks like they’ve given up on the season.

As it turns out, letting two of your three best defensive players leave in free agency can have some negative consequences, as can losing the other top player to injury. Without DeAndre Levy, Ndamukong Suh, and Nick Fairley, this defense has shown no signs of the aggressive playmaking that earned them a playoff spot last year. More troubling, the return of a healthy Calvin Johnson has not given their offense the boost it expected, which has spiraled into the mess they find themselves in now.

The Lions have the worst record in the league, but that’s not the only reason I see them as having the inside track for the first overall pick. Most people expect the top selection to go to the worst team, but more often than not it goes to a team that had decent expectations coming into the season, a team that struggles early and gives up down the stretch. It happened with the Colts in 2011, the Chiefs in 2012, and the Texans in 2013. And right now, the Lions have given up in much the same way, giving them an edge over bad but still trying teams like Tennessee or Cleveland.

I Have No Damn Clue

Dallas Cowboys (2-6)

The NFC East is a mess. Dallas is in last place among the four teams, but they are also clearly the best of them, held back only by the injuries that have effectively ended their season. They lost one of last year’s big three to free agency, but they would have been able to weather the loss of DeMarco Murray, and possibly even the early season injury of Dez Bryant, had it not been for the ensuing injury to Tony Romo. They’ve lost six straight now, leaving them with the second worst record in the NFC.

The first half of the season was a disaster, but they still have hope to fix things over the second half. Bryant is back and looking close to full strength, and there are hopes that they’ll get Romo back within the next couple weeks. Their current record puts them in a bad situation, and it doesn’t help that they’ve already played both their games against the Giants and the Eagles, but the teams ahead of them aren’t going to be running away with the division. The injuries have robbed the Cowboys of any margin of error, but they have enough of an edge in talent over the other teams that they have a chance to make up the deficit.

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-4)

The Jets have essentially clinched the first Wild Card spot by default, and that leaves the next three teams fighting for the final slot. Of the teams, there is no doubt that the Steelers are the best. Even without Le’Veon Bell they have one of the most potent collections of offensive talent in the league, with Martavis Bryant and DeAngelo Williams stepping up to support the best receiver in the league Antonio Brown. Their defense has been playing surprisingly well, and if they can get Roethlisberger healthy down the stretch, this team can compete with any in the league.

But of course, that’s the problem. Roethlisberger already missed four games with a knee injury, and he was clearly playing at below one hundred percent over the past two games prior to going down against the Raiders with a foot sprain. He will miss next week’s contest against the Browns, but the bye the following week might be able to limit his absence to just that one game. But even if he does make it back, there’s no way to know what Roethlisberger we’ll see, whether he can perform at a high enough level to fight into the final playoff spot.

Buffalo Bills (4-4)

It is often said that a team takes on the personality of their head coach, and never have we had better evidence of that than this year’s Bills. It is truly remarkable how quickly Rex Ryan managed to turn his new team into an exact duplicate of his old. The Bills are sloppy, undisciplined, and wildly erratic, but they have enough talent on the defensive side of the ball that, when paired with an expert in defensive scheme like Ryan, makes them entertaining and occasionally successful.

In a normal year that’s all they would be, but the AFC has been set up perfectly for them to make a run at the playoffs this year. And at times they’ve actually looked like a team deserving of that spot, only to come out and lay an egg the following week. They need to find a way to harness some consistency going forward, and to do that they will need more from their offense. Tyrod Taylor has been a pleasant surprise in that he’s not an utter disaster, but they are going to need more performances like they got last week from LeSean McCoy and Sammy Watkins. So far their role players have done their part, and to make a run down the stretch, the stars in Buffalo have to show up.

Oakland Raiders (4-4)

This still seems hard to believe, but right now if I had to bet on a team to claim the final AFC playoff spot, I’d probably put my money on the Raiders. They are a more complete team than the Bills, a healthier team than the Steelers, and their record puts them right in the middle of the race. The loss in Pittsburgh last week was a serious blow to their chances, but with a schedule that has the Chiefs twice, the Chargers, the Titans, and the Lions, there are plenty more opportunities for wins.

If any of you still believe Oakland is a fluke, you should get over it right now. There will undoubtedly be bumps along the road, but this is a quality team from top to bottom. Most of the attention has gone to Derek Carr, Amari Cooper, and Khalil Mack, but there is a lot more to this team than just the stars. Their offensive line has fallen perfectly together, and they are getting major contributions from veterans like Charles Woodson and Michael Crabtree. They aren’t to the point where they will be dangerous once the postseason arrives, but they can definitely push for their first playoff berth since 2002.

Potential or Production

The 2013 NFL Draft was never expected to be one that would be remembered fondly for years to come. From the moment the field of eligible players was set, we knew that the talent available was not up to the level of a normal year. There was no elite quarterback prospect, no clear and obvious top pick. The first player taken was an offensive lineman from Central Michigan, and the most discussed player prior to the draft was Manti Te’o, an unathletic linebacker who ended up falling to the second round. Many people actually pitied the Chiefs for ending up with the first selection in this draft, the one year there was not a definite game changing player available.

The most obvious shortcomings were at the offensive skill positions. The only quarterback to go in the first round was EJ Manuel, a pick that was panned at the time and looks even worse now. No running back was selected in the first round, and only three wide receivers and a single tight end went in the top thirty-two. It was as thoroughly unsexy as a rookie class can get, and so far it has lived up to that reputation, with only DeAndre Hopkins and Tyler Eiffert saving the skill players of the first round.

We knew the talent at the skill positions was mediocre coming into the draft, but that alone did not make the class bad. The lack of exciting skill position players hurt casual interest, but the real problem was the absence of great players at the other positions. There were no dominant defenders, and no offensive linemen who could be considered top notch talents. But while there were no sure fire options, there were plenty of interesting prospects, most intriguing of all among the defensive linemen. 

Over the course of the first thirty-two picks we saw five edge rushers and five interior defenders taken, starting with Dion Jordan third overall and going all the way down to Sylvester Williams at number twenty-eight. 2013 was a big year for pass rushers in the draft, but it wasn’t because the group was particularly good. There were no players who combined the raw tools and productivity of someone like Von Miller or Khalil Mack. Every player had tantalizing strengths and glaring weaknesses, and there was a great deal of heated debate leading up to the draft surrounding each player.

I’ll start with the defensive tackles, saving the more interesting case of the edge rushers for the end. The last two off the board were Datone Jones from UCLA and Sylvester Williams from North Carolina, and so far neither has done much in the NFL. In college they were the type of defensive tackles you’d expect to see go at the end of the first round, solid but far from dominant. Williams has earned his way into the starting role after a couple years behind Terrance Knighton, but he’s lost among the talent elsewhere on Denver’s defense. Jones’s hurdles thus far have been all about himself, as he’s struggled to make any impact on a Packers team constantly in search of defensive linemen.

The first three defensive tackles off the board are a much more interesting story. The first taken was Sheldon Richardson from Missouri, a prototypical run stuffer whose size and strength made him impossible to move in the middle. He had only played two years of major college football after transferring from a junior college, and while he had done enough to earn his way into the first round, his pedigree did not match up with the other top linemen, making it a surprise when he was selected ahead of Sharrif Floyd and Star Lotulelei.

Lotulelei was one of the most interesting stories of the draft. He rose steadily through the early part of the process, his explosiveness on tape earning him recognition usually not available to players from Utah. In some early mock drafts he was even projected to go off the board first overall, until disaster struck at the Combine. Before he was even able to participate in the tests, he was sent home after doctors detected a possible heart issue during their physical. He was later cleared and performed all the needed workouts at his Pro Day, but the health concerns were enough to scare teams into dropping him to Carolina at fourteen.

The highest touted prospect in the leadup to the draft was Sharrif Floyd from Florida, yet he ended up going behind both Richardson and Lotulelei. Some mock drafts had him going as high as third overall, and at twenty-three his fall was the most notable of the first round. Many of the concerns surrounded his physical capabilities, particularly his unusually short arms. As usual, this explanation was met with ridicule from the public, who jump at the opportunity to disagree with the NFL’s overanalysis of prospects.

The order these three were taken in came as a surprise, yet if you were to rank them now, they would probably end up in that same order. Richardson has clearly been the best of the three, winning Defensive Rookie of the Year and consistently dominating since stepping on the field. But he’s done so in a surprising way, showing far more ability as a pass rusher in the NFL than he did in college. It’s a bit closer between Lotulelei and Floyd. Lotulelei was clearly the better player during his rookie season, and though Floyd has been among the best defensive tackles in the league since the middle last season, health has kept him from truly breaking out. His short arms haven’t stopped him from exploding into the backfield in much the same way he did at Florida, just as the health concerns that caused Lotulelei to fall out of the top ten have proven unfounded.

Scouting is a messy process, and there is a great deal of pressure on scouts, coaches, and general managers to get things right. A single small flaw can cripple a career and bring ridicule towards the team that staked everything on grabbing that player. Fans laugh when teams overanalyze a good player, but they laugh even harder when a high draft pick flames out of the league, even if they were among the group defending that player from criticism a few years earlier.

And that brings me at last to the edge rushers. Two and a half years into their careers, no one is looking back on this class with a great deal of fondness. Depending on your willingness to write a player off before the end of his third season, four of the five could already be categorized as busts. One is suspended for the entire season, and two have played fewer than a quarter of their team’s defensive snaps this year. Even as one of the best parts of the class, very little was expected from the edge rushers in 2013, and so far they are living down to expectations. How this happened, however, remains a very interesting matter, and it reveals a great deal about how we approach the drafting process.

The first edge rusher taken was in many ways the embodiment of everything fans hate about the draft. The Miami Dolphins traded up to the third pick in order to grab Dion Jordan out of Oregon, a high upside pass rusher with all the tools to be a dominant player in the NFL. Many were skeptical off the bat, concerned about his thin frame, his lack of a defined position, and most of all his production. In four seasons at Oregon Jordan collected only 14.5 sacks, and of these only five came during his senior season. The Dolphins made a reasonable deal to move up from the twelfth pick, but it still seemed like a questionable move from a team without a great need at pass rusher.

Three years later, these doubters are nodding their heads in self congratulatory disappointment. Jordan has been the biggest flameout of the entire draft, collecting only three sacks over his first two seasons before being suspended for all of 2015. Of course,  the biggest problems for him have been off the field, something that wasn’t mentioned in a single one of the scouting reports I read. There were no character concerns about Jordan prior to the draft, but those who were skeptical are still plenty willing to take credit for seeing this failure coming.

The story of Jordan is very familiar to us, and we don’t even have to look beyond the top ten to find another example of a prospect built on physical ability. Barkevious Mingo was a stellar player his first two seasons at LSU, showing great progress from 2.5 sacks his freshman year to eight as a sophomore. He was one of the highest touted prospects coming into the season, and it was a major disappointment when he only mustered 4.5 sacks as a junior. Despite this dropoff, he decided to declare for the draft, and against popular wisdom he rose back into the top ten. The potential of his sophomore campaign was enough to get the Browns to overlook the problems that arose in his junior year, but through two and a half seasons he looks much more like the player we saw in his final season, his career NFL sack total of seven still not matching his best year in college.

These two prospects walked similar paths, and they are prime examples of the folly of drafting for potential. In their final year in college they failed to reach double digit sacks combined, so why should it be a surprise that neither can rush the passer in the NFL? This is the narrative we hear every single year when the draft comes around, and with every Dion Jordan and Barkevious Mingo, the voices shouting it only become louder and more numerous.

By now I’m sure you know where I’m going with this, so I’ll just come out and say it. This narrative is bullshit. It’s the sort of thing we like to tell ourselves as casual followers of college and professional football, the story that makes us feel like we know more than the so called experts running these teams. We are trained to think that the two levels are similar, that a player who succeeds at the lower will also succeed at the higher, and when we find examples of this it only reinforces the biases already in place. We prop up players like Vontaze Burfict and Russell Wilson, while ignoring those like Manti Te’o and Montee Ball.

There really isn’t a better example of this out there than the pass rushers of the 2013 class. While high upside players like Jordan and Mingo went in the top ten, a pair of high productivity college stars fell into the latter portions of the first round. There was a great deal of outcry when it happened, outdone only by the silence since as these players have struggled to find a place in the NFL.

The last of the pass rushers to go off the board was Bjoern Werner of Florida State, taken by Indianapolis one pick after Floyd. After twelve sacks his junior year of college, there were expectations that he would find his way into the top ten of the draft. But as the process went along, he slowly slipped down the board, his lack of athletic upside pushing him to the end of the first round. Thus far in his career, that upside seems even more limited than expected, as he’s bounced between positions and failed to find a place in Indianapolis’s shaky defense.

There wasn’t a great deal of outrage around the Werner's fall, but that was mostly because it was all directed towards Jarvis Jones. Jones remains one of the most accomplished college pass rushers of the past ten years, collected 27 sacks over his final two seasons after transferring to Georgia from USC. Throughout his entire junior season he was considered a lock to go in the top ten, yet, as seems to happen with at least one player every year, he ran afoul of the predraft machine. An abysmal forty time and concerns about a chronic back issue caused him to fall to seventeenth overall, where he was finally taken by the Steelers.

It’s understandable why followers of college football were stunned. Jones was the most productive pass rusher in the nation, with nearly as many sacks in his final season as either Jordan or Mingo had in their entire careers. It was considered a major steal when the Steelers grabbed him, yet after two years the Steelers found themselves once again spending a first round pick on an edge rusher. Jones has shown signs of improvement this year, but he still is far from the dominant edge force that many expected.

There was a great deal of agreement in the scouting world that Jordan and Mingo were can’t miss players, just as there was a great deal of agreement among fans that Jones and Werner were unappreciated stars. Two and a half years in, it’s probably safe to say that both sides were clearly wrong. Four players, all with their upsides and their downsides, combining for 21 sacks so far in their careers, fewer than the edge rusher who went fifth overall in the draft.

Of all the pass rushers available in 2013, Ziggy Ansah was by far the least polished. Born in Ghana, Ansah didn’t come to America until enrolling at BYU in 2007. Originally he came with the dream of playing basketball, and football wasn’t even his second choice when that fell through. He was recruited off the BYU track team as a pure athlete, playing only three years of organized football before entering the NFL draft with 4.5 career sacks.

This is the sort of résumé that would earn laughter from many armchair scouts, but the staggering athleticism of Ansah was enough to bring him into the top five of the 2013 class. And two and a half years into his career, it isn’t even controversial to say that he has been the best player to come out of the first ten selections. Ansah has improved every year he’s been in the league, collecting 22.5 sacks as he’s worked to harness his potential. Last year he was a piece beside Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley on one of the best defensive lines in the league, and this year he’s showing that he can hold his own as a star with those two gone. Even with Suh and Fairley on other teams and DeAndre Levy mysteriously injured, he has been a consistent force for the Lions defense, and with seven sacks he trails only Chandler Jones and JJ Watt this season.

The stories we tell ourselves as fans are often colored by what we want to believe. For the next ten years we’ll hear the tales of Jordan and Mingo, players who revealed the folly of the NFL’s scouting machine. We won’t hear about Werner or Jones however, and we certainly won’t hear about Ansah. People will remember the minute concerns that caused Lotulelei and Floyd to fall, but they won't remember how much of a surprise it was to see Richardson chosen ahead of them.

In most years there are a few players available who combine both skill and production, but in 2013 this was not the case. Every player available carried risk, whether it was the risk of not being able to match the athleticism of NFL competition or the risk of simply not being very good at football. Drafting is a very difficult process, and as fans we need to understand when to ignore a player’s college success. Choosing a player in the draft is all about projecting into the future, and in order to do this we often need to learn to forget the past.