AFC SOUTH
Indianapolis Colts
Half
Full:
Indianapolis has improved every
year since adding Andrew Luck, and this year they take the final step. Luck has
one of the most dangerous groups of weapons in the league, with star receivers
TY Hilton and Andre Johnson bolstered by intriguing rookies Phillip Dorsett and
Duron Carter. And with the return of Robert Mathis, they will have a pass rush
element to their defense that was missing last year. This team made it to the
AFC Championship Game, and they only improved over the offseason. With
uncertainties dotting the rest of the AFC, they deserve to be considered a
Super Bowl favorite.
Half
Empty:
Indianapolis’s offense is flashy,
but the real reason they’ve fallen short the past few years is their defense, a
side of the ball they did very little to improve. They have a couple of good
players in Mathis and Vontae Davis, but the rest of this side of the ball
varies from mediocre to terrible. Ben Roethlisberger torched them for 522 yards
and 6 TDs last year. The Patriots run all over them whenever they get a chance.
Andrew Luck is very good, but this defense will continue to hold them back from
taking the next step once they reach the playoffs.
Player
To Watch: Duron Carter, WR
The first time I heard of Carter
was when he committed to play at Ohio State in 2009. Since then he’s spent time
with Coffeyville Community College, Alabama, Florida Atlantic, the Minnesota
Vikings (training camp only), and the Montreal Alouettes. He hasn’t managed to
stay in one place long, but the problem has never been talent. People keep
giving him new chances because of his talent, and if he finally has his head on
straight, he could turn into a starting caliber NFL receiver. Of course,
there’s still a chance he could end up being cut before the season. With a
player like Carter, anything is possible.
Houston Texans
Half
Full:
Houston has arguably the best
player in the league in JJ Watt, and this year they may have finally surrounded
him with capable talent. Vince Wilfork is still capable of contributing despite
his advanced age, and if Jadeveon Clowney is healthy, he can be a dynamic pass
rusher from the opposite side. Add that to a developing star on offense in
DeAndre Hopkins and a solid core of overall talent, and this is a team that can
push for the playoffs, and possibly even the division.
Half
Empty:
Watt is great, but we saw two
years ago that he isn’t enough to carry a team to a successful season on his
own. With Arian Foster out indefinitely, their offense looks close to barren.
They’ve lost Andre Johnson, they have no reliable option at quarterback, and
even with Hopkins this could turn out to be one of the worst offenses in the
NFL. It probably won’t be that bad, but even so I could see this team
struggling to score points and possibly ending up with a top ten draft pick.
Player
To Watch: Rahim Moore, S
The Texans are a team built on
the back of JJ Watt, and there aren’t a lot of good players flying under the
radar. Duane Brown and Arian Foster have been borderline stars for years.
DeAndre Hopkins is following the track you’d expect from a first round pick.
Jadeveon Clowney is or isn’t something, and everyone is watching to figure this
out. To find a player truly worth attention, I have to go for their free agent
signing from the Broncos. Moore is still stung by his failure to knock Joe
Flacco’s heave out of the sky three years ago, and this one play has colored
the development of an otherwise stellar young player. In Denver he was buried
behind a team of veteran stars, but in Houston he finally has a chance to
emerge as a foundational piece for a defense.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Half
Full:
Jacksonville has loaded up on
young talent over the past few drafts, and this looks like a year they could
all break out. Blake Bortles struggled through a lot of last year, but he also showed
intriguing flashes as both a passer and a rusher. Surrounded by developing
young receivers like Allen Hurns, Marqise Lee, and Allen Robinson, he has a
chance to lead a true breakout on offense. They are still relying on a lot of
young players, and they aren’t in a position to make the playoffs this year.
But a .500 record isn’t out of the question, and this could be the season that
finally begins to pull them out of their tailspin.
Half
Empty:
Young talent is just talent until
it actually does something, and so far, very few players on the Jaguars roster
have actually done anything. Their offensive line is still a disaster, Bortles
needs to make massive improvements in mechanics and decision making, and their
defense will struggle to improve after losing first round pick Dante Fowler.
There are reasons to be hopeful here, but not for 2015, another season that
will see them finish with a top five draft pick.
Player
To Watch: Allen Robinson, WR
The Jaguars have a lot of
intriguing young receivers, but none have done as much to impress as Robinson.
A big, physical target who dominated at Penn State, he had a strong rookie
season that was completely ignored due to the performance of the other rookie
receivers in the league, the general incompetence of the Jaguars, and an injury
that sidelined him down the stretch. But he played well enough to establish
himself as the leading candidate for the number one receiver slot, and if he
can take another step he can make life a lot easier for their developing
quarterback.
Tennessee Titans
Half
Full:
Tennessee has intriguing pieces
on defense, and this year they are finally in position to put it together. It
seems like every year around this time we expect Derrick Morgan to break out,
but this year will be different, thanks to the presence of Brian Orakpo on the
other side. The two of them will combine with Jurrell Casey to make up one of
the league’s most dangerous fronts. A massive defensive improvement is well
within the realm of possibility, and if their offense can pull together around
Marcus Mariota, this team can push for a playoff spot.
Half
Empty:
That final piece is the big
question. Mariota is talented, and I expect him to find success long term, but
his transition to the NFL may not go smoothly. A great deal depends on how Ken
Whisenhunt will utilize him, not necessarily the most promising of
circumstances. Whisenhunt can be a bit stubborn when it comes to his scheme,
and I can see him trying to force Mariota into a rigid, pocket passing system,
leading to a disaster of a rookie season and a total collapse of the team.
Player
To Watch: Bishop Sankey, RB
Reports out of Tennessee suggest
that Sankey has fallen out of favor and could quickly lose most of his carries
to rookie David Cobb. This isn’t surprising considering his struggles last
season, but I still think there’s reason to be hopeful about this second year
player. Sankey was mismanaged during his rookie season, forced into an offense
that didn’t fit his talents behind a line that gave him no help. Sankey isn’t a
feature back, but he can be very useful when given the ball in space, an
opportunity he could see plenty if Wisenhunt is clever enough to use Mariota in
a read option scheme. Under these conditions Sankey is the perfect complement
to the rookie quarterback, and he could very easily have a surprise breakout
campaign.
NFC SOUTH
Carolina Panthers
Half
Full:
Carolina has made the playoffs
the past two years thanks to a young core that will only continue to improve.
Cam Newton’s abilities on the ground and in the air make him one of the most
underrated quarterbacks in the league, and they only need him to make an
occasional play to support a loaded defense. With Luke Keuchly, Kawaan Short,
and Star Lotulelei holding down the middle of the field, athletes like Thomas
Davis will be free to fly to the ball, creating a unit explosive enough to
carry them into the postseason again.
Half
Empty:
Carolina’s biggest weaknesses the
past two years have been offensive line and wide receiver, and they didn’t really
address either in the draft. Newton is phenomenally talented, but he can’t
carry the team while standing behind Byron Bell and throwing to Ted Ginn. Kelvin
Benjamin is a bit overrated as a player, but you can’t overstate his importance
to this team. They were mediocre last year who made the playoffs thanks to a
wretched division. They won’t be as lucky this year and could easily wind up
with a top ten pick.
Player
To Watch: Shaq Thompson, LB
I’m trying to stay away from
talking any more about first round picks, but Thompson is just too interesting
to ignore. He is a relatively unique player, either an undersized linebacker
with great coverage instincts or an oversized safety who will dominate against
the run. If he gets on the field for Carolina, it will be very intriguing to
see how they use him, considering they already have two of the best coverage
linebackers in the league in Keuchly and Davis. Thompson is raw, but if he can
figure things out, he can be a devastating addition to an already top notch
defense.
New Orleans Saints
Half
Full:
Last season was a disaster for
the Saints, one I certainly didn’t see coming. But their failure doesn’t change
the fact that this is an incredibly talented team who can easily run away with
a weak division. Drew Brees is still one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, Safeties
Kenny Vaccaro and Jairus Byrd are due to bounce back after a disappointing
first season together, and they are finally in position to have a quality
running game to support their offense. This team wasn’t as bad as they looked
last year, and they don’t have to improve much to make the playoffs again.
Half
Empty:
New Orleans spent their offseason
with a series of moves that screamed desperation and a need to rebuild. They
traded away Jimmy Graham and Kenny Stills. They drafted players who offer more down
the road than as immediate contributors. This is a team going through a great
deal of turnover, and that instability hardly inspires confidence. Their
defense is an uncertainty as always, but for the first time in a while we don’t
know what to expect from their offense. A total collapse is not out of the
question.
Player
To Watch: CJ Spiller, RB
A former top ten pick who has
become a mostly anonymous NFL player, Spiller has the potential to become a
truly invaluable part of this roster. He had his moments in Buffalo, but they
could never figure out how to use his unique skillset. In New Orleans he finally
has a coach creative enough to put him in a position to succeed and a
quarterback who understands how to use a running back in the passing game. He
isn’t as shifty as Reggie Bush or Darren Sproles, but he can find a way to fill
that role in this offense.
Atlanta Falcons
Half
Full:
The Falcons have been loaded on
star power for several years, but they’ve fallen short because the back end of
their roster hasn’t been up to NFL standards. For the past couple years they’ve
struggled to improve their depth, and they may have finally built a quality
structure around stars like Matt Ryan and Julio Jones. Players like Adrian
Clayborn and Jon Asamoah won’t carry a team, but they can be crucial pieces to
help others do so. They don’t have enough for a deep run, but in a division as
weak as the NFC South, they could easily run away with the title.
Half
Empty:
Atlanta has worked hard to
improve the depth of their team, but they still haven’t done enough. Bringing
in low priced veterans can lead to great bargains, but it can also load up a
roster with a bunch of unwanted disappointments, like former first rounders
Clayborn and Tyson Jackson who never lived up to expectations in their old
homes. The Falcons are betting that they can get more from these players than
their original teams, but if these players remain who we think they
are—borderline starters forced into primary roles—Atlanta will bear a great
deal of resemblance to the disappointing team they’ve been over the past two
seasons.
Player
To Watch: Jon Asamoah, G
Asamoah quietly played a major
role in Kansas City’s playoff appearance two years ago, stabilizing an
offensive line that had been in flux for years. He was expected to do the same
thing when he signed with the Falcons, but injuries robbed him of any hope for
a successful first year in Atlanta. Fortunately, he is fully healthy going into
his second year with the team, and their need for him is as critical as ever.
His presence could give them the boost they need to turn this from a good
offense into one of the top five in the league.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Half
Full:
Even the worst teams have pieces
to like, but the pieces on Tampa Bay are up there with any in the league.
Gerald McCoy is the best defensive tackle in the league when he’s healthy.
Lavonte David is somehow still underrated. Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson form
a dangerous duo of towers on the outside. With these kind of pieces, the only
thing they were missing was a star quarterback, and they may have found it in
Jameis Winston. Winston is a football genius with an arm to match his mind, and
he has the potential to burst onto the scene in the NFL much as he did in
college. In a division as weak as this one, he could be enough to lead the
Buccaneers to the playoffs.
Half
Empty:
Stars are great, but they need
some capable talent around them, and there is no evidence that Tampa Bay has
these quality players to fill out their roster. Their defense has been terrible
for years despite the presence of McCoy and David. Jackson and Evans are
clearly below the top tier of receivers. And Winston is a quarterback prone to
mistakes, the sort of mistakes that could lead to a poor start to the season
and another year drafting in the top ten for Tampa Bay.
Player
To Watch: Alterraun Verner, CB
Verner was a big time free agent
acquisition a year ago, but after a disappointing season he’s been mostly
forgotten about. Many are willing to dismiss his stellar 2013 season as a
fluke, but the talent he showed was too much to be just a flash in the pan. His
skills are perfect in Lovey Smith’s (possibly outdated) defensive scheme, and
he can be the piece on the back end to complement their two superstars in the
front seven.
