So the first round of the NFL
draft happened yesterday, and it was kind of boring. There were no major
trades, no shocking picks. Everything went pretty much according to script,
besides a few small falls. Still, it was a fun night with a lot of teams making
interesting picks. I’ve broken down each and every pick below, plus a few other
notes on what we’ve seen and what we will see going forward at the bottom.
1) Tampa
Bay Buccaneers – Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State
No surprises here. Jameis Winston
went first overall to Tampa
Bay, just as everyone has
been predicting for the past three months. I miss the old days when teams would
just do away with the dramatics and sign the player to a contrac before the
draft, but whatever. Winston partners with Mike Evans to give Tampa Bay
one of the best young combos in the league. They still need someone—anyone—to
protect him, but they’ll have the second pick tomorrow.
2) Tennessee
Titans – Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
Tennessee
decided to hold onto the pick rather than trade it, despite late pushes from Philadelphia and Chicago.
The packages they were receiving didn’t measure up to what they thought the
pick was worth, and they certainly can use a player of Mariota’s talents. I’m
not sure how he’ll fit into Tennessee’s
scheme, or rather how Tennessee’s
scheme will adapt for him. Long term I think it will be a success, but there
will probably be some bumps along the road.
3) Jacksonville
Jaguars – Dante Fowler Jr, OLB/DE, Florida
Everything is going according to
script so far. I am very high on Fowler, an explosive and athletic pass rusher.
He has some flaws to iron out in his game, but even if he doesn’t harness his
full potential he can be a Pro Bowl level player. Jacksonville had a surprisingly effective
pass rush last year, but they need talent to plug into their scheme. Fowler is
extremely versatile, a dream for any defensive coordinator.
4) Oakland
Raiders – Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
Oakland didn’t buy into the Kevin White hype,
instead going for the more polished receiver. If I had put together a full big
board, I probably would have ranked him as the number one overall player. He is
an insanely good route runner, better than most established NFL receivers. He
will dominate in the underneath areas, the part of the field Carr excels at
picking apart. It remains to be seen whether Carr can develop a deep passing
game, and Cooper probably won’t be a huge help there, but he is certainly an
excellent addition to any offense.
5) Washington
Redskins – Brandon Scherff, OG, Iowa
This was the first real surprise.
Scherff was probably going to be the first lineman off the board, but this is a
lot higher than I think he should have gone. His footwork needs a lot of work,
and his physical abilities will probably hold him back from ever being a left
tackle. Fortunately the Redskins have that position locked down, and he might
be able to hang in on the right side. I don’t love the value of this pick, but
it fits a need for a team that wasn’t able to trade down.
6) New
York Jets – Leonard Williams, DT/DE, USC
Williams has great value here,
but he absolutely does not fill a position of need. The Jets already have
superstars in Sheldon Richardson and Muhammad Wilkerson to play the same
position, and it will be very interesting to see how they get all these players
on the field. It could be an utter disaster, or it could be a nightmare for any
offense they face. Three extremely talented, extremely versatile players are
never a bad thing. Even if they can’t figure it out, this gives them more
flexibility to trade Wilkerson if contract talks continue to stall.
7) Chicago
Bears – Kevin White, WR, West
Virginia
I don’t love this pick. The board
broke down very well for the Bears, and they had essentially their choice of
pass rushers. They need a lot of help on defense, and they already have a very
good option at receiver in Alshon Jeffery. White certainly helps their offense,
but no more so than Brandon Marshall did last year. Their biggest problems are
still on the other side of the ball, and that’s going to remain true until they
get an influx of young talent.
8) Atlanta
Falcons – Vic Beasley, DE/OLB, Clemson
This was the dream scenario for
the Falcons. They needed a pass rusher, and they pretty much had their choice.
They took the more polished Beasley over the athletic superstar Dupree. It will
be interesting to see where he plays in Dan Quinn’s defense, whether he’s used
exclusively as an edge rusher or if he makes a transition like Bruce Irvin’s. I
expect it will be the former, a position of greater need that he fits better.
9) New York
Giants – Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami
Flowers is athletic. And he’s
big. That’s about all I have to say in his favor. He was my sixth ranked
offensive tackle, and I wouldn’t have taken him in the first round. He plays
off balance, reaching too far or sitting back on his heels. He gets pushed
around far more often than a 315 pound man should. He could develop into a top
notch tackle, but there is going to be a long and rough period before that
happens.
10) St
Louis Rams – Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia
I thought Gurley would go in the
top ten, but I didn’t expect him to go to St
Louis. St
Louis doesn’t seem to care about team need, not after
finding success with Aaron Donald last year. But after spending a third round
pick on Tre Mason last season, a running back who found a lot of early success,
it seems questionable to use a selection this high on a running back. Gurley
will probably be a fantastic pro, but St
Louis is going to have to start addressing their needs
at some point.
11) Minnesota
Vikings – Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan
State
I’m not a fan of this pick. I
like Waynes, I
think he’s the best cornerback in this draft, but this is too high for him. He
has some issues that need ironed out, he’s not as big as people seem to think,
and Minnesota’s
cornerback situation is better than people think. The Vikings really wanted to
trade down from this pick, and they clearly weren’t in love with players like
DeVante Parker or Bud Dupree, but this is still a major reach. Waynes will be a quality starter, but at this
point a team should want a Pro Bowl caliber player.
12) Cleveland
Browns – Danny Shelton, DT, Washington
What do you know? This one lined
up with both my mocks. It was no secret that the Browns needed a defensive
tackle, and it was no secret that they loved Shelton. There were even rumors that they
would try to trade up to get him, but he ended up being available when their
pick came up. This pick will allow them to move on from the disappointing Phil
Taylor, provided Shelton
isn’t as big a bust as the rest of their recent draft picks.
13) New
Orleans Saints – Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford
I like Peat, I like his value
here, and I like the need for the Saints. Most expected them to address defense
with this pick, but I like the decision to fill the hole on their offensive
line. Peat is a classic left tackle, and it will be interesting to see whether
the Saints put him there or if they decide to stick with Terron Armstead.
Either way, they have a pair of excellent bookend tackles for years to come.
14) Miami
Dolphins – DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville
Miami has completely reshuffled their
receiving corps this offseason, casting off Brian Hartline and Mike Wallace,
adding Greg Jennings and Kenny Stills. They finish this off with DeVante
Parker, one of my favorite players in the draft. He gives them height to go
along with their quicker receivers, a bookend for Stills that allows Jennings and Jarvis
Landry to operate in the slot.
15) San Diego
Chargers – Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin
And we have our first trade!
Hooray! The Chargers jump up two picks to ensure they get a shot at a running
back, grabbing Melvin Gordon as the second running back in the top fifteen. Now
that they’ve moved past their dalliance with trading Rivers, they need to find
talent to put around him. Gordon is a good complement to Branden Oliver, and
running back is a position where a player can contribute immediately. It
doesn’t make them a top notch team, but it gets them closer.
16) Houston
Texans – Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake
Forest
Johnson has been shooting up
boards for several weeks, and it isn’t surprising to see him go off the board
as the second cornerback. I like what I’ve seen from him, but I am a little
concerned about his lack of experience in man coverage. He could, an probably
will, be a very good player, but the risk involved in a scheme change makes me
a little uncomfortable with how high he went.
17) San Francisco
49ers – Arik Armstead, DE/DT,
Oregon
This was as close to a consensus
as there was in the draft outside the top three. Everyone expected Armstead to
go to them at number 15, and it was no surprise that they stuck with that when
they moved down to number 17. No one can replace Justin Smith, but Armstead can
do a good job filling that role. His long arms will allow him to eat up
blockers, keeping Aldon Smith and Navarro Bowman free to run after the ball.
18) Kansas
City Chiefs – Marcus Peters, CB, Washington
I never considered mocking a
cornerback to Kansas City,
but it makes a lot of sense. They have a very good front seven, but they have
only been able to put it together for short stretches because of their back
end. Strong offers an excellent combination of size and skill, and he can start
for them right away. He gambles a bit too often, and his athleticism isn’t
spectacular, but he can be a quality starting cornerback, provided he solves
his off the field issues.
19) Cleveland
Browns – Cameron Erving, OL, Forida
State
Everyone expected Cleveland to go with a
wide receiver last year, or this year, or sometime. They will need to address
that hole at some point, but for now I have no problem with them adding an
interior lineman. Erving is a versatile player who can play just about anywhere
on the line. Projected as a center, he will probably slot in beside Alex Mack
at right guard. He’ll be a good utility starter on the line for years to come,
allowing them to build that unit with flexibility.
20) Philadelphia
Eagles – Nelson Agholor, WR, USC
Agholar doesn’t have the upside
of some of the other available receivers, but he is a very polished player who
has been climbing up draft boards. Philadelphia
has cleaned out their larders at wide receiver, and they need someone on the
outside to help their passing offense. He can create separation with his
quickness off the line, opening up the short, simple throws that form the
foundation of Kelly’s offense
21) Cincinnati
Bengals – Cedric Ogbuehi, OT, Texas
A&M
Okay, this is probably my least
favorite pick of the first round. I said above that Ereck Flowers was my sixth
ranked offensive tackle. Well Ogbuehi was my seventh, and there was a fairly
sizeable gap. He struggled with injuries his final year in college, and that
may have been part of the problem. But from the film I saw, he struggles with
both his hands and his feet. He needs to polish his technique, and he needs to
realize he has arms if he’s going to make the most of his athletic ability.
22) Pittsburgh
Steelers – Bud Dupree, OLB, Kentucky
This was a surprising fall for
Dupree. He had shot up the board thanks to a tremendous performance at the
combine and the issues faced by Randy Gregory and Shane Ray. Top ten was
definitely a possibility, but he ends up falling to the Steelers. Two years
after Pittsburgh
grabbed a falling Jarvis Jones to bolster their pass rush, they do the same
with Dupree. The two are pretty much opposite players, Jones all polish and no
athleticism. Dupree could turn out to be the top pass rusher from this draft,
or he could be a major disappointment that sets their defense back three years.
23) Denver
Broncos – Shane Ray, DE/OLB, Missouri
I’m not completely sure about
this one. Ray is a very good value this late, but I’m not sure how he fits in
with the Broncos. Denver
has played a 3-4 the past few years, and I expect they’ll stick with it under
their new coaching staff. Ray doesn’t really fit this scheme. He doesn’t play
well in space, and they already have two top notch pass rushers in DeMarcus
Ware and Von Miller. If they are changing scheme, this would make some more
sense. But I think they would have been better off grabbing Randy Gregory.
24) Arizona
Cardinals – DJ Humphries, OT, Florida
Humphries is a very talented
offensive tackle with huge upside, and Arizona
can certainly use help on their offensive line. Humphries might not offer great
immediate impact, but they have a couple quality starters to hold down the spot
if they want to let him sit. If not, he can come in at right tackle and use his
strength to clear holes in their running game. Now if only they’d traded for a
running back…
25) Carolina
Panthers – Shaq Thompson, LB, Washington
Everyone expected Carolina to go offensive
line, but they fell in love with Thompson as the process went on. With several
offensive linemen already taken, they decided to just go with the best player
on their board. It was always going to be interesting to see how Thompson fit
into the league, and it will be even more interesting in Carolina, where they already have two
fantastic, athletic linebackers. Ron Rivera is an excellent defensive
coordinator, and I can definitely imagine him finding a way to use Thompson as
a hybrid linebacker/safety.
26) Baltimore
Ravens – Breshad Perriman, WR, UCF
Huh, the Ravens did exactly what
I said they would in my first mock draft. I expected Perriman to go higher in
real life, but this makes a lot of sense for them. Joe Flacco is at his best
throwing deep, and before this pick they had no one on their team who could
consistently get open deep. Perriman is as raw as receivers come, but he certainly
has the size and speed to be a high quality NFL player down the road.
27) Dallas
Cowboys – Byron Jones, CB, Connecticut
The combine superstar sees his
rise end in the first round, finally a cornerback to bolster Dallas’s defense. He is explosive, he is
fast, and he had decent film in the short time he played cornerback. There is
still a lot he needs to work on, and his injury history needs to be taken into
account. I probably wouldn’t have taken him in the first round, but this late
for a team with so many needs on defense, I can justify this decision.
28) Detroit
Lions – Laken Tomlinson, OG, Duke
Detroit had needs on the offensive line
coming into this draft, and they certainly did their job to fill them. They got
excellent value to move down five picks, adding Manny Ramirez and a couple
midround picks. And now they take Tomlinson, one of the highest rated guards in
the draft. I’m not certain if Tomlinson deserved to go in the first round, but
he is certainly capable of stepping in as a starting guard right away. He has
good hands and good feet, though he could probably benefit from adding strength
in his lower body. He isn’t going to bowl people over, but he does a good job
keeping his body between the defender and the ball.
29) Indianapolis
Colts – Philliip Dorsett, WR, Miami
I’d heard of Dorsett, but he was
the first player that really shocked me going in the first round. I’m not sure
I like this fit. From what I’ve seen of Dorsett, he’s a very similar player to
TY Hilton. Luck throws a good deep ball, but he also throws a good ball
everywhere else. I’d rather see them find someone who can exploit the field
underneath, rather than trying to constantly throw deep behind a questionable
offensive line.
30) Green Bay
Packers – Damarious Randall, S, Arizona
State
Last season Green Bay got a physical, in the box safety
in Ha Ha Clinton-Dix. This year they add the coverage end of that bargain with
Randall. Randall has been shooting up boards lately, moving from a third round
pick to the first over the past month. He can be a bit overaggressive at times,
and he needs to make significant improvements reading plays as they develop.
But he has excellent speed to cover a lot of ground, and his length and
instincts could make him a nightmare as a centerfielder for years to come.
31) New
Orleans Saints – Stephone Anthony, LB, Clemson
Another later riser, a big,
thumping inside linebacker with excellent athleticism. After going offense with
their first pick, New Orleans
pretty much had to do something to address their defense. I think this was a
bit of a reach for Anthony, when better players were on the board at multiple
positions. Randy Gregory is still out there, Landon Collins is still out there,
and Eric Kendricks is still out there. Any of them would have been a great
addition for the Saints.
32) New England Patriots – Malcom Brown, DT, Texas
I described Malcom Brown as a
polished defensive tackle with minimal upside, someone who would be perfect
going to a contender late in the first round. Well New
England is pretty much the perfect example of such a team. He’ll
partner with last year’s first round pick Dominique Easley as the Patriots
continue to turn the focus of their defense from their secondary to their
defensive line.
A few more quick notes:
·
After weeks of insane speculation, the first
round was almost defined by a lack of trades. There were two deals made, the
49ers and the Chargers swapping picks 15 and 17, and the Lions and Broncos
swapping 23 and 28. There were plenty of teams willing to trade down—the
Redskins, Jets, and Vikings were all making serious efforts—but there simply
weren’t teams interested in giving away multiple picks to move up. Popular
wisdom in recent years has been that it’s advantageous to move down, and NFL
teams seem to have jumped on this train of thought. So does this mean there
won’t be trades going forward? No, it just means teams will be forced to
reevaluate how they value draft picks, decreasing the weight of higher
selections to better fit analytical models.
·
The trades that did happen were clear examples
of a team winning by sliding down. Both San Diego and Denver gave up far more
than the difference in picks were worth, for players they potentially could
have gotten if they had just stayed in place.
·
A couple positions stood out. At one point there
was speculation that as many as five edge rushers could go in the top ten. Only
four went in the entire first round, the slide of Randy Gregory being the most
obvious. Off the field issues were part of it, but it does seem that teams
weren’t as eager to go all in on pass rush as I had anticipated.
·
The other interesting position is wide receiver.
Traditionally it has been perceived that receiver is a difficult position at
which to make the transition from college to professional, and that there
wasn’t a huge loss in investing in a developmental prospect. After last
season’s rookie class, teams seemed to place more value on immediate impact.
The polished Amari Cooper went higher than the raw Kevin White. Nelson Agholar
and Phillip Dorsett were drafted, while Jaelen Strong and Dorial Green-Beckham
remain on the board.
·
Speaking of which, here are my top ten remaining
players: Randy Gregory, Eric Kendricks, Dorial Green-Beckham, Jaelen Strong,
Owa Odighizuwa, TJ Clemmings, Landon Collins, Jordan Phillips, Jalen Collins, Duke
Johnson
·
One other player to watch is, unfortunately,
La’el Collins. No one really knows what’s going on with him, which definitely
does not bode well. There are rumors he could go undrafted, which I think is an
absolute mistake. If he does end up facing charges, then any pick spent on him
is likely a waste. But every year teams spend sixth and seventh round picks on
players who never make their roster, players with significantly less upside
than Collins. Even if no progress is made in the situation, I still think he’s
absolutely worth a look in the fourth round.
