2015 Running Back Prospects

Over the next few weeks I will be looking at the top prospects in the NFL draft, breaking them down position by position. Today I am starting with the running backs, which in retrospect seems like a strange place to begin. The running back position has become devalued over recent years, teams moving away from investing high picks in them thanks to a short playing career and the relative ease of finding talented players later in the draft.

There hasn’t been a running back taken in the first round since Trent Richardson, Doug Martin, and David Wilson went in 2012. This year, however, we are likely to see that change. There are a couple of top talents who could come off the board on the first day, and several more who could provide great value in the second or third rounds. Thanks to DraftBreakdown.com, I was able to watch at least three games from seven of the top running backs. Here they are, ranked from top to bottom based on what I saw on the tape.

Todd Gurley – Georgia

There is no question that Gurley is the most talented running back in the draft. He is probably the most talented running back to enter the league in the past three years, boasting a rare combination of size, speed, and agility. At his heart he is a power back, slamming between the tackles and fighting for every available yard. Tacklers seem to slide right off of him, and he is almost impossible to bring down unless you hit him square.

He also happens to be one of the shiftier running backs available at the top of the draft. He is more run you over than make you miss, but he is capable of doing either and usually makes the smart choice as a runner. He has exceptional balance, and it is common to see him stumble forward for five extra yards even after it looks like the defense has him stopped.

There are no questions about Gurley’s talent. He has all the breakaway speed you could want, solid skills as a receiver and a blocker, and consistently demonstrates smart cutbacks when the hole isn’t available (he is no Trent Richardson is what I’m saying.) The only thing he really lacks is the ability to get around the corner that some of the backs below use to great advantage. When there is absolutely nothing available in the middle, he usually just slams the ball ahead for a gain of two or three yards. He doesn’t have the ability to break it outside, and he can’t consistently turn a nothing play into a great play. But he understands this, and he rarely gets caught dancing in the backfield. Negative plays are hard to find, and even though he lacks the boom of some of the other runners, he makes up for it by also lacking the bust.

The real issues with Gurley are durability. He is coming off of a torn ACL, and it is difficult to project how he will recover. Will he be like Adrian Peterson and bounce back as good or better than ever? Or will he be like Marcus Lattimore, subject to recurring injuries until his talent evaporates?

Even with these concerns, I can’t look past the pure talent. Had Gurley entered the league completely healthy ten years ago, he probably would have been the first player picked. Running back has been devalued, and the injuries increase the risk, but whoever gets Gurley has a very good chance of ending up with one of the best running backs in the NFL.

Melvin Gordon – Wisconsin

Melvin Gordon isn’t who people think he is. The common perception seems to be that he is a quick, shifty back who specializes in space, the sort of runner who is a nightmare in the open field but not necessarily a force between the tackles. And while Gordon is at his best on the edge, he is also a very dangerous runner when attacking the center of the field.

Gordon’s greatest asset is his straightline speed. When he gets past the edge of the defense, he demolishes pursuit angles and can outrace the opposing team to the endzone. Above I mentioned Gurley’s lack of speed around the corner, and this is the one area where Gordon absolutely dominates him.

This speed also translates to his interior rushing attack. If a hole opens for even a split second, he can be through and to the second level before the defenders have a chance to react. He doesn’t have anything near the raw physical power of Gurley, but he is better at gaining yards after contact than people give him credit for. He can break the occasional tackle, and he almost always manages to avoid a direct hit, giving him the ability to finish forward.

There are a few areas in which Gordon falls short of expectations. He doesn’t really have the lateral quickness to make people miss in the open field, and if a defender can get him sized up he can usually bring him down. His short strides and choppy feet let him make subtle cuts to get past flatfooted defenders, but he doesn’t have the sharp stop-start ability of someone like LeSean McCoy. He also offers next to nothing as a receiver or a blocker, and aduring the early part of his career he will have to come off the field in third down situations.

There is one more concern regarding Gordon, one I don’t put much stock in but at least needs mentioned. The offensive line he played behind at Wisconsin was one of the best in college football, and he could always count on wide open lanes to run through. The one time his line faced a defensive front that could match them, Ohio State held Gordon to 76 yards on 26 carries. He likely won’t see the same consistent dominance in front of him in the NFL, and there have to be a few concerns about how his success will carry over, especially after what we saw from Trent Richardson. Gordon has the talent and the vision to overcome this, but it does have to be considered as a risk.

Gordon is a more complete runner than people give him credit for, but he still doesn’t measure up to Gurley. The injury concerns bring them closer, but in my mind I still see a wide gap between the two. Gordon will be a solid running back in the NFL, but at this point I’m not sure if I would spend a first round pick on him.

Duke Johnson – Miami

Johnson is a smaller, quicker back who excels in open space. At only 5’9”, he still manages to pack 207 pounds onto his dense frame, giving him serviceable strength to go along with his quickness. There is nothing special about him physically, at least not compared to the other top running backs. He doesn’t have the size or speed of either Gurley or Gordon, but his skills as a runner put him at the top of the next tier of running backs.

Johnson is probably the most polished runner available in the draft. He has excellent vision and patience to let holes develop, and he has the stop-start ability to make the cuts needed to exploit the holes he finds. He doesn’t dance around defenders, but he makes smart cuts to break down their angles and knock them off balance. Most importantly, he always attacks downhill. Johnson isn’t the sort who will be caught in the backfield, and he will happily accept a good play rather than trying to create a great play.

What really sets him apart from all other running backs in the draft is his skill as a receiver. He is an excellent route runner out of the backfield on swings, wheels, and especially angle routes that start him moving to the outside before bringing him back over the middle. His eyes will occasionally get ahead of his hands, causing drops as he attempts to transition from a receiver to a runner, but his overall ability makes up for these occasional lapses. A smart coach will take full advantage of this ability, even lining him up as a slot receiver where he saw some work in college.

As polished as he is, Johnson just doesn’t match up physically with the other top backs. He isn’t strong enough to consistently run through tacklers, and his straightline speed is merely average. In addition, there are serious ball security issues that need addressed before he can be a reliable option. All of this puts him well below Gurley and Gordon at the top of the draft.

Nonetheless, the skill is there. Johnson will be a very valuable addition in the second round, particularly for a team looking for immediate contribution. If a solid team with a strong core (Dallas is the first that jumps to mind) was to grab him, he could find enough immediate success to be a Rookie of the Year contender. However, teams willing to be patient and develop a longer term option may prefer to go with the next back instead.

Jay Ajayi – Boise State

In terms of pure ability Ajayi is right up there with the top two runners in the draft. He has impressive size at 221 pounds, and he plays that big on the field, shedding tacklers and fighting for yards nearly as well as Gurley. He has good speed for a back his size, running a 4.57 40 yard dash. He doesn’t play quite that fast on the field, but he shows more than enough speed to break big plays.

Ajayi has everything needed to be a great running back, except that he isn’t really that great of a running back. He is too eager to bounce plays to the outside, seeming to believe he is faster and smaller than he actually is. He plays too eager at times, running up his blockers’ backsides before the holes can develop. Put together these lead to a lot of negative plays of the sort you just don’t see from the running backs above him.

As raw as he is, it is difficult not to be awed by Ajayi when he sticks his foot in the ground and actually attacks downhill. He has fantastic lateral quickness, and he can make people miss in the open field as easily as he can run them over. He doesn’t lose speed when making cuts, and he shows good vision once he gets past the line into the open field. In the passing game he offers more as a receiver than as a blocker, but on the whole he is the sort of player you can feel good about leaving on the field for all three downs.

Good coaching can cure Ajayi of many of his flaws, and since every coach believes he is a good coach I think it’s likely that Ajayi will be the third running back off the board. And while he could very well live up to these expectations, the risk he carries is higher than any other back in the draft. He is an interesting project who could one day turn out to be the best running back from this year’s class, but I would hesitate to take him before the latter half of the second round.

Ameer Abdullah – Nebraska

There are three clear tiers among the running backs on this list. Gordon and Gurley are clearly head and shoulders above the rest, and there is a similar drop from Johnson and Ajayi to the next group of running backs. These three at the bottom are grouped fairly tightly, and it wouldn’t be a mistake to choose any of them over the others. But of the three, I rank Abdullah as the highest because he is the most complete as a runner.

Stylistically, Abdullah is a very similar player to Duke Johnson. What he lacks in speed and size, he makes up for in skill and experience. He is a smart runner who knows how to find and hit holes, and he never tries too hard to make more out of a play than is available. He is a skilled receiver who can run routes out of the backfield or from the slot, and he will be able to contribute in a variety of ways on special teams. All around, he is a useful player to have on your team.

But it is difficult to look at him and see much upside. His straightline speed is merely average for a player of his size. He doesn’t run well up the middle and is easily brought down by arm tackles. In college he was just quick enough to beat lesser athletes to the hole, but against the top tier players in the NFL he will struggle to find success on anything other than outside runs.

The one place where Abdullah truly excels is in space. He is very quick, and he understands how to work side to side while still attacking upfield. To start in the NFL he can be a very useful kick returner, and a team can find a role for him as a third down back. Long term there is a slight chance he can take on a more substantial role, but he is limited enough that I probably wouldn’t invest anything higher than a third or fourth round pick in him.

David Cobb – Minnesota

If you want a big, powerful back who can run through tackles, Cobb is your guy. If you want someone who’s going to run away from defenders, he’s not. At 229 pounds and running a 4.81 40, Cobb is a strictly between the tackles runner. There’s nothing flashy about his game, but he can pick up a reliable three or four yards at a time if a hole is available.

Cobb has reasonably quick feet, and he is better at changing directions than you’d expect from a back of his size. But his vision is subpar, and if a hole isn’t made immediately available he can get swallowed up in the line. He doesn’t bring much acceleration, and he isn’t the sort who can generate leg drive from a dead stop.

But once he’s built up a head of steam, it is a completely different story. Cobb can easily turn a five yard gain into a ten yard gain through pure momentum, and if he has a lane to build his speed through he can outpace linebackers down the field. He’ll never break off fifty or sixty yard runs, but with good blocking he can churn out carries of ten or twenty yards.

Cobb can take a pounding many of these other backs can’t, and a team in need of someone to carry the ball fifteen times a game might be better off investing a third round pick in him than the others in this tier. But he’ll never be more than a useful piece of a larger backfield, and his limited upside puts him below the backs who have the potential of being more complete players.

Tevin Coleman – Indiana

Coleman is pretty much the opposite of Cobb. Another high profile Big Ten running back, his game is defined exclusively by his speed. There’s a very real chance he has never broken a tackle in his life. In fact, a strong breeze might be enough to knock him over. He’s listed at 206 pounds but plays so much smaller.

Between the two one dimensional running backs, I put Coleman below Cobb because he is the less polished player. He struggles to read his blocks and find holes, and he shows almost no lateral agility. Straightline speed is the only tool in his kit, and as long as you can stay in front of him he isn’t going to do much against you. Many of his runs end up stuffed right at the line of scrimmage, and he shows no ability to make something positive when nothing presents itself.

But when Coleman gets into the second level of the defense, he is a sight to behold. His speed makes it look like he’s playing a different game than the rest of the defense, and if he can get past the first level there’s really nothing to stop him before he hits the goalline. He is the sort of player who will break a four or five sixty yard touchdown runs over the course of the season, just enough that a coach will stick with him through countless plays stuffed at the line. In the right system he could be a useful change of pace, but I would never consider spending more than a fourth round pick on him.

Trading First Round Picks

We’ve had nearly a week now to cool down after the chaos of the beginning of the new season. Huge sums of money were handed out, and players jumped from team to team in trades of the sort we aren’t used to seeing in the NFL. The highest profile of these deals was probably the trade between the Seahawks and the Saints, which saw Jimmy Graham and a 4^th round pick shipped to Seattle in exchange for Max Unger and a 1^st round pick.

That now makes two 1^st round picks this year that have changed hands, joining the one the Bills sent to Cleveland last year as part of a deal for the pick they used on Sammy Watkins. This is a pretty normal number if recent years are to be believed, and it will likely remain the same until the day of the draft (though who the hell knows what will happen anymore?)

The tricky part of trading draft picks is figuring out how to weigh the value of an intangible asset against a very tangible player. An ideal trade should benefit both sides, but it doesn’t always work out that way. I dug through the trades involving 1^st round draft picks made in the past few seasons, in the search of an elusive win-win trade.

I confined myself to looking at trades made prior to draft day, primarily swaps of players for picks. This won’t include deals like Atlanta jumping up on draft day to grab Julio Jones, or Miami sliding up to get Dion Jordan (I also excluded the RGIII trade, because everyone is sick of hearing about that.) For all picks dealt, I included the exact selection numbers in parentheses. So a pick listed as “2^nd round pick (47)” would be the 47^th overall pick, the 15^th of the 2^nd round.

2014

Indianapolis: Trent Richardson

Cleveland Browns: 1^st round pick (26)

This one is recent enough that I probably don’t have to refresh your memory. Trent Richardson sucks, and the Colts have already cut him loose, even with a year remaining on his contract. (As an aside, this was a rather shameless attempt to recoup the money they promised to pay him, which will likely lead to a series of appeals that could last longer than the rest of Richardson’s career.)

Far more interesting is what happened with the pick they traded. Cleveland didn’t just sit on number 26. They traded this and a 3^rd round pick (83) to Philadelphia for the 22^nd pick, which they used on Johnny Manziel. At this point a lot remains to be determined, but it is hard to call them winners either.

Of course, if we’re going to have any fun we can’t just restrain ourselves to the actual teams involved in the original deal. The 83^rd pick received by the Eagles was then dealt to Houston in exchange for a 4^th and a 5^th round pick (101 and 141). Philadelphia used these picks on Jaylen Watkins and Taylor Hart, a pair of special teamers. They used the 1^st round pick they received from Cleveland on linebacker Marcus Smith, whose rookie year failure was a major reason for their offseason front office reshuffling that led to the current chaos in Philadelphia.

Houston used the 83^rd pick they acquired on nose tackle Louis Nix, who played some this year before going down with a season ending injury. This makes them the current winner of these deals, even if he did little enough that they decided to sign Vince Wilfork.

In the hunt for our elusive trade in which everyone wins, we start by finding a trade in which everyone loses. Not exactly promising.

2013

Seattle Seahawks: Percy Harvin

Minnesota Vikings: 1^st round pick (25), 7^th round pick (214), 2014 3^rd round pick (96)

I don’t have much to say on this one now, since I covered it back in October when the Seahawks traded Harvin to the Jets. At the time I decided the trade was firmly in the favor of the Vikings, and it swung even further into their favor over the second half of the season as Xavier Rhodes developed into one of the best cornerbacks in the league.

This impression wasn’t helped by Seattle’s failure to produce any open receivers during the Super Bowl. Had they not made this trade for Harvin and given him a big new contract, they likely would have made a better effort to retain Golden Tate, who may have been enough to earn them a second Super Bowl ring.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Darrelle Revis

New York Jets: 1^st round pick (13), 2014 4^th round pick (104)

This trade is much less complicated than the Colts-Browns swap, though parts of it are just as depressing. Revis is obviously not still with the Buccaneers, cut after a single disappointing season for salary cap/schematic reasons. The Jets held onto the 4^th round pick and used it on wide receiver Jalen Saunders, who didn’t even make it out of his rookie training camp with the team.

The other pick is the one saving grace of this deal. With the 13^th selection in 2013, the Jets selected defensive tackle Sheldon Richardson. Richardson went on to win Defensive Rookie of the Year, and he only improved last season. Right now if they did the 2013 draft over again, he would probably be the first player off the board. And now that they have brought Revis back as a free agent, I think it's pretty clear that we can call the Jets winners. Huh, there’s something I’ve never written, spoken, or thought before.

2012

Oakland Raiders: Carson Palmer

Cincinnati Bengals: 1^st round pick (17), 2013 2^nd round pick (37)

You noticing a trend yet? Doesn’t it seem like the team surrendering the picks to acquire the player rarely gets the better end of the deal? Part of me still feels a bit sympathetic for how this whole situation went down. The Raiders began the 2011 season strong, winning four of their first six before losing starting quarterback Jason Campbell to a broken collarbone. Most teams have the luxury to not overreact to a good six game stretch, but for the Raiders this was the first sign of life in nearly a decade. They couldn’t just afford to surrender to a lost season, so they went out and grabbed the best quarterback available at any cost.

Palmer had been holding out ever since the Bengals drafted Andy Dalton, and Cincinnati was looking for somewhere to dump his contract. The desperation of the Raiders worked to their advantage, giving them far more than he was worth. Palmer can still play at a competent level, as he’s shown the past couple years in Arizona, but he was hopeless thrown into a new scheme in Oakland.

In return, Cincinnati received a 1^st round pick that they spent on cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick and a 2^nd round pick they used on Giovanni Bernard. Kirkpatrick struggled to find the field his first couple years, but he came on strong down the stretch last year and is a promising young piece of their defense. Bernard’s future is less certain, but he remains and intriguing player as a change of pace to Jeremy Hill.

2011

Oakland Raiders: Richard Seymour

New England Patriots: 1^st round pick (17)

Seriously, Oakland? And you wonder why you’re terrible. Yes, two straight years the Raiders traded away their 1^st round pick (17^th overall both times) to bring in an over the hill veteran to add to a roster that wasn’t going anywhere in the first place. It’s one thing for someone fighting for a championship to trade their future for a 30 year old defensive lineman. It’s something else entirely for a team that should be trying to rebuild to waste their resources on aging veterans.

New England made the rest of this fairly simple. They used the 1^st round pick they received on Nate Solder, a reliable, league average left tackle. Just the sort of player Oakland would love to have on their roster. But instead they had the privilege of counting $19 million of Seymour’s salary against their cap even after they had cut him in 2013.

2010

Denver Broncos: Alphonso Smith

Seattle Seahawks: 1^st round pick (14)

This one falls into a slightly different category. The Broncos traded this pick during the 2009 draft in exchange for Seattle’s 2^nd round pick that year (37), which they used on Wake Forest cornerback Alphonso Smith. If you haven’t heard of Alphonso Smith, I don’t blame you. The Broncos cut him after only a single season, and he’s been out of the league since 2012. In exchange for that one season, they gave up their next year’s 1^st round pick. That’s right, the Broncos traded a 1^st round pick for a 2^nd round pick.

Of course, because the universe has a sense of humor, the Seahawks used that pick on Earl Thomas. Yes, in order to draft one of the biggest defensive back busts of the past decade, the Broncos gave up the pick that became one of the best defensive backs in the league. Earl Thomas is now an All Pro safety who was the best player on a defense that won the Super Bowl by shutting down, of all teams, the Denver Broncos.

2009-2010

Chicago Bears: Jay Cutler, 5^th round pick (140)

Denver Broncos: Kyle Orton 1^st round pick (18), 3^rd round pick (84),  2010 1^st round pick (11)

Here we have it, the biggest NFL trade of the past decade. It’s strange how little we think about this anymore, but if it happened today we would all collectively lose our minds. Two teams swapping starting quarterbacks, with one sending a pair of future 1^st round picks in order to acquire a player thought to be one of the up and coming stars in the league. That so many pieces of the deal ended up disappointing does not change how staggering this move was.

I really don’t want to get into a discussion of Jay Cutler’s career right now. He hasn’t been a success in Chicago, but I wouldn’t call him a failure either. Similarly, I don’t know how to evaluate Orton’s Denver career. He did some good things, but he was also benched for Tim Tebow. So let’s just focus on the draft picks.

The pick Chicago received ended up being pretty straightforward. In the 5^th round of the 2009 draft they selected wide receiver Johnny Knox. Knox was a major contributor on special teams and a slightly below average starter on offense, before a devastating back injury ended his career. Still, I think it’s fair to say that the Bears got more than they could have expected out of a 5^th round selection.

Tracking the Broncos picks gets a bit more complicated, but here it goes. In 2009 they used their 1^st rounder on defensive end Robert Ayers, a definite bust. The 3^rd round pick was packaged with Denver’s other 3^rd round pick (79) to the Steelers in exchange for a 2^nd round pick (64) and a 4^th round pick (132).

Denver used these selections to grab tight end Richard Quinn, who lasted two years with the team, and offensive lineman Seth Olson, who only made it one year. Pittsburgh turned the 79^th pick into offensive lineman Kraig Urbik—also lasted only a year—and with the 84^th pick (the one that originally belonged to the Bears) they took wide receiver Mike Wallace. So I think we can count the Steelers as winners on this one.

Okay, that was a lot. But there’s still one pick left, Chicago’s 2010 1^st rounder. And this is where it gets really interesting. Denver traded down two spots so San Francisco could move up to select offensive tackle Anthony Davis. As part of this deal they received a 4^th round pick (113). Holding the 13^th pick now, they sent it to Philadelphia (who drafted defensive end Brandon Graham) to move down to number 24, receiving two 3^rd round picks (70 and 87). But they weren’t done yet. From number 24 they moved up two spots to grab Demaryius Thomas, sending the Patriots the 4^th round pick they had received from the 49ers.

The Patriots used this pick to take Aaron Hernandez (…awkward…) and sent the 1^st rounder to Dallas (along with a 4^th rounder (119)) in exchange for Dallas’s 1^st round pick (27) and 3^rd round pick (90). The Patriots used these selections on defensive back Devin McCourty and wide receiver Taylor Price. Dallas used the 1^st rounder on Dez Bryant and sent the 4^th rounder to Miami in exchange for Miami’s 4^th round pick (126) and 6^th round pick (179). The players taken with these three picks were respectively: AJ Edds, Akwasi Owusu-Ansah, and Sam Young.

So we’re done, right? Not quite. Because Denver still has the two 3^rd round picks they received from Philadelphia. With number 87 they took Eric Decker, yet another phenomenal wide receiver wrapped into these deals. They did not hold onto number 70, however. They sent it along with a 2^nd round pick (43) and a 4^th round pick (114) to Baltimore in exchange for the Ravens 1^st round pick (25). Baltimore used the 43^rd pick on Sergio Kindle, the 70^th pick on Ed Dickson, and the 114^th on Dennis Pitta.

And with the 25^th pick? The Broncos selected Tim Tebow. And we’re back to the quarterback shell game that started it all.

That was a lot, so to summarize with additions in green and subtractions in red:

Denver: Kyle Orton, Robert Ayers, Richard Quinn, Seth Olsen, Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, Tim Tebow, Jay Cutler, 2009 3^rd (79), 2009 5^th (140), 2010 2^nd (43), 2010 4^th (114)

Chicago: Jay Cutler, Johnny Knox, Kyle Orton, 2009 1^st (18), 2009 3^rd (84), 2010 1^st (11)

Pittsburgh: Mike Wallace, Kraig Urbik, 2009 2^nd (64), 2009 4^th (132)

San Francisco: Anthony Davis, 2010 1^st (13), 2010 4^th (113)

Philadelphia: Brandon Graham, 2010 1^st (24), 2010 3^rd (70), 2010 3^rd (87)

New England: Devin McCourty, Taylor Price, Aaron Hernandez, 2010 1^st (22), 2010 4^th (119)

Dallas: Dez Bryant, Akwasi Owusu-Ansah, Sam Young, 2010 1^st (27), 2010 3^rd (90)

Miami: AJ Edds, 2010 4^th (126), 2010 6^th (179)

Baltimore: Sergio Kindle, Ed Dickson, Dennis Pitta, 2010 1^st (25)

Have fun figuring out who won and lost all that.

2009

 

Dallas Cowboys: Roy Williams, 7^th round pick (210)

Detroit Lions: 1^st round pick (20), 3^rd round pick (82), 5^th round pick (192)

Yeah, I don’t think we even need to look at who Detroit selected to know who won this trade. Roy Williams is one of the greatest trade busts of all time, lost in the many punch lines in recent Cowboys history. Over two and a half seasons in Dallas he managed a total of 94 catches for 1324 yards and 13 touchdowns. That would be a pretty good stat line over sixteen games. Unfortunately, it took him 40.

Of course, then you take a look at what Detroit got. With their 1^st round pick they selected tight end Brandon Pettigrew, who has been somewhere between disappointing and irrelevant for most of his career. In the 3^rd round they chose Derrick Williams, a wide receiver who never caught a pass for them. Which I guess puts him behind their 6^th round pick Aaron Brown, who over three years with the team produced a total of 327 yards from scrimmage.

I’m going to call this another lose-lose trade.

2008

San Francisco 49ers: Joe Staley

New England Patriots: 1^st round pick (10), 2007 4^th round pick (110)

Like the Alphonso Smith–Earl Thomas deal, this one was made on draft day the previous year. The 49ers gave up their 1^st round pick next season in exchange for New England’s 2007 1^st rounder, which they used on offensive tackle Joe Staley. A disappointing season in 2007 meant the pick they gave up was fairly high in the 1^st round, but it is difficult to call them losers of a deal that landed them a future 3 time All Pro.

New England took full advantage of their pick as well, using it on Jerrod Mayo who was the heart and soul of their defense until going down with injuries the past two seasons. But they did even better with the 4^th round pick, which was thrown in almost as an afterthought. They kept it for a single day before passing it on to the Raiders in a straight up deal for a wide receiver by the name of Randy Moss. And with the 110^th pick in the 2007 NFL draft, the Raiders selected defensive back John Bowie, who never started a single game for them.

What do you know? A deal in which everybody won, and the Raiders somehow still lost.

2008

Minnesota Vikings: Jared Allen

Kansas City Chiefs: 1^st round pick (17), 3^rd round pick (73), 3^rd round pick (82)

Here it is, the Platonic Ideal of an NFL trade. In 2008 Jared Allen was one of the best young defensive ends in the league, coming off a season in which he led the NFL in sacks despite missing the first two games. The problem was that he had only a year left on his contract, and it looked like Kansas City was in the process of tearing things down. He had no real interest in returning to Kansas City, and thanks to some off the field issues (Remember how I mentioned he missed the first two games of the season? That was a suspension for repeated alcohol issues.) they weren’t particularly eager to bring him back either.

The solution was to send him to Minnesota, an up and coming young team with a stout run defense in serious need of a pass rusher. There was some concern at the time that Allen’s off the field troubles could follow him, but we all know how it worked out. He cleaned up his act, led all NFL players with 85.5 sacks over his six years in Minnesota, and earned himself an eventual spot in Canton. There isn’t a single Vikings fan out there who would undo the trade if given the chance.

Fewer people realize how well Kansas City made out in the deal. The latter 3^rd round pick turned into basically nothing—Dajuan Morgan, a safety who was with them for only two seasons. But a miss like that is perfectly acceptable when they hit on their other two picks like they did. In the 1^st round they grabbed Branden Albert, who became one of the NFL’s best left tackles over his six years in Kansas City. This was a fantastic pick, a major contributor that would almost be enough to make it a fair deal.

But where they really hit was with the other pick they received. With the 73^rd pick in the 2008 NFL Draft, the Kansas City Chiefs selected running back Jamaal Charles. Yeah, I’m pretty sure no Chiefs fans out there want to redo this trade either.

So there we have it. 2008, the year of the mutually beneficial trade. If we could look into the future, maybe seven years down the road we’ll see another such trade, one in which the team surrendering their future for a single player doesn’t end up utterly screwed in the end. Until then, I think it’s probably a smart thing for teams just to hold on to their 1^st round picks.