Black Monday and the NFL MVP

Black Monday

We saw a strangely quiet Black Monday, with only four coaches being fired (or mutually agreeing to go separate ways, in the case of Jim Harbaugh). Counting Oakland there are only five open coaching positions this offseason. Here are my thoughts on the four firings from Monday.
 
Fired:

New York Jets

The Jets fired both head coach Rex Ryan and GM John Idzik on Monday. For Ryan, the writing has been on the wall for a long time. If anything it was a surprise that he made it through last season. The Jets have gotten worse every year since he’s been the head coach, both on offense and on defense. Their offensive struggles have gotten most of the blame, but they have steadily declined on the other side of the ball as well. Here are the Jets defensive ranks in DVOA during the six years with Ryan as coach: 1, 5, 2, 9, 12, 21. They have not invested in offense, and they have failed to develop highly drafted defensive players like Quinton Coples.

The firing of Idzik was a bit unfair, but I understand the desire to start over from scratch. They want to bring in a new GM, a new coach, and a new quarterback and mark 2015 as a completely fresh start. Idzik actually did a good job drafting in 2013 and picking up useful veterans like Eric Decker and Chris Ivory. But the Geno Smith pick doomed him, as all failed quarterback picks eventually do.

Atlanta Falcons

I am not going to argue against the firing of head coach Mike Smith. After years of playoff disappointment followed by a disaster of a season in 2013, it was clear that he needed to make the playoffs if he was going to keep his job. As the NFC South collapsed around him the road to the playoffs only became easier, but he still wasn’t able to lead the Falcons to the division title. At least twice this year he cost his team an almost certain victory with idiotic clock management, and nothing he tried over the past two seasons did anything to fix the problems assailing their defense. Mike Smith had to go, and the Falcons had to start over.

The one thing I can’t understand is the decision to retain GM Thomas Dimitroff. Dimitroff arrived the same year Smith did, and he deserves just as much credit for their early success and just as much blame for their recent failures. He repeatedly traded assets away to move up in the draft, and because of his moves the team was left bare of talent at most positions. If anything he deserves more of the blame than Smith for the past two seasons. If the Falcons wanted to start fresh, they should have begun at the top of their organization.

Chicago Bears

Three years. That is, in my mind, the minimum time a coach deserves to attempt to demonstrate his value. The only possible exceptions that come to mind are in extreme cases, such as a Greg Schiano level sociopath. Trestman does not fall into this category. The season was a disaster in Chicago, and they probably needed to fire their defensive coordinator. After the drama involving the leaked Jay Cutler information, they probably needed to move on from their offensive coordinator too. But it is completely unfair to dismiss Trestman after two seasons, one of which was actually worthy of being called a success.

Trestman inherited a team in a bad situation. Their defense was built around an aging core of Julius Peppers, Lance Briggs, and Charles Tillman. The closest they had to young talent was Shea McClellin. Years of poor trades and drafting under former GM Jerry Angelo left him with very little to work with. The fact that they nearly won the NFC North in 2013 despite crippling injuries on defense and the loss of their starting quarterback was a minor miracle. As bad as 2014 was, it doesn’t change that. One good year and one bad year should not be enough to get a coach fired.

San Francisco 49ers

I cannot express how stupid this whole thing was. Jim Harbaugh is one of the best football coaches in the world. Everywhere he has gone he has made the team immediately better. Stanford was 1-11 the year before he arrived. He left them as a top ten team in the nation. San Francisco won 46 games in the eight years prior to his arrival. Counting playoffs, they won 49 games in his four seasons. I can’t speak to the specifics of any internal strife, but if there were problems in the organization they should have found a way to fix them other than jettisoning one of the top coaches in the league. The 49ers are on a definite downward trajectory, and I wouldn’t be stunned to see them end up with a top ten pick in 2016, just as they had the year before Harbaugh arrived.

Retained:

There were a few other coaches who looked like they might be let go, but so far most have managed to hang on. A couple of these could still lose their jobs, but it seems likely that they'll all be given another year.

 

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins announced last week that Joe Philbin would be staying for at least the 2015 season. As much as this was a vote of confidence in Philbin, it struck me more as a vote of confidence in Ryan Tannehill. This was by far Tannehill’s best season, but he is still far from a long term solution at quarterback. He needs to take another step forward next season. If he doesn’t, they will have to part ways with him. The Dolphins retained Philbin to maintain continuity and to give them flexibility to start from scratch in 2016 if things don't work out next year.

St Louis Rams

Of the coaches who were fired, Smith and Ryan were probably the only two that deserved it. Of the coaches who weren’t fired, I can think of only one who deserved to be let go. Jeff Fisher is far and away the most overrated coach in the NFL. He is highly respected among NFL circles, meaning no one in the media ever says a bad thing about him, meaning most people seem unaware that he is not really that good as a coach. In nineteen full seasons as a head coach he has finished over .500 six times. His gift is the ability to be consistently mediocre. In eleven of those seasons he finished with between six or eight wins, meaning only twice did he finish with five or fewer wins.

And sure enough, his three years in St Louis have seen him go 7-8-1, 7-9, 6-10. In that time the Rams have utterly failed to develop the wealth of young talent they received from the RGIII trade, have made questionable decisions hiring coordinators, and don’t seem to be able to do anything other than pull an occasional upset to trick people into believing they’re better than they actually are. St Louis needs to make a change now, while they still have a chance to harness the potential of players like Tavon Austin and Michael Brockers.

Washington Redskins

Remember above when I said that there are very few cases where a coach should be fired after two years? This holds doubly true for a single season. 2014 was a disaster in Washington, and Jay Gruden looked hopeless as he tried to manage the countless calamities unfolding around him. Dan Snyder at the helm means that anything is possible, and there was plenty of speculation that Gruden could be on his way out, especially if he wasn’t willing to support Robert Griffin as the long term answer at quarterback. Right now it looks like Gruden will be back next year, for better or for worse. He definitely deserves another chance, but nothing I saw this year leaves me optimistic for his coaching tenure.

Jacksonville Jaguars

I don’t have much to say on this one. A smart decision to retain Gus Bradley, even if I’m not sure how long he’ll last in Jacksonville. I think he’s a good coach, but this team still looks a long way from competing for playoffs. For him to last they’ll need to win seven or eight games next year then make the postseason in 2016. He will go as far as Blake Bortles will carry him, which has to be a bit nerve wracking after this season.

Buffalo Bills

Before the season I called Doug Marrone the most likely coach to end up fired. I was wrong about this (and quite a few other things too, which I’ll get to in a couple weeks). The Bills surprised everyone by pulling out a 9-7 record this season, covering for the personality conflicts caused by their coach early in the season. Of course, this will all go away when they start losing again next year. The Bills had a good season, but they are a team built around an aging core of Fred Jackson, Mario Williams, and Kyle Williams. With no clear options at quarterback, next year will be a disappointment and Marrone will likely be on his way out.

MVP

I normally don’t care much about end of season awards. I find them mildly amusing, and I will occasionally get indignant if the voters get things completely wrong. But I don’t see much reason to waste a lot of time thinking about and writing about the winners of these awards. If you’re really that interested, here’s who I think should win the major awards.

Offensive Rookie: Odell Beckham Jr

Defensive Rookie: Aaron Donald

Coach of the Year: Bruce Arians

Comeback Player: Julio Jones

Defensive Player: JJ Watt

Offensive Player: I’m honestly not even sure what this award is supposed to mean. Antonio Brown, I guess.

You’ll notice that I left one award out, the biggest of them all. That’s because this year we are looking at one of the most interesting and most wide open MVP fields in history, at least in my mind. Aaron Rodgers is the presumed winner, and he certainly has put together a fantastic season in leading the Packers to a division title and a first round bye. But I don’t want to just leave it at that. I want to look a little closer.

Before any discussion about MVP, I think it’s important to define how we interpret “Most Valuable Player”. I’m not someone who gets caught up too much in the word “valuable”. I think when MVP awards were first handed out it was constructed this way to make it sound more prestigious than simply saying “Best Player”. I think it’s more an accident of history that we give so much importance to the word valuable, and I think the award should go to whichever player puts together the best season. Getting caught up in the word valuable leads to facile arguments such as Nick Foles deserving the award because the team collapsed without him, or Andrew Luck because the Colts have so little outside of him.

I do think there should be one condition on a player being eligible for MVP. A team shouldn’t have to make the playoffs for one of its players to win the award, but it should be competitive down the stretch. I don’t think the award should go to a player who piles up great stats in meaningless games. If a team is alive in the final week of the season, if every game a player plays is crucial to a playoff run, then I don’t see why we should dismiss his performance just because a game here or there did not go his way.

To discuss the MVP we need to start by looking at the quarterback position. No one will dispute that this is the most important position on the field, and if a quarterback stands head and shoulders above the other players at his positions then he deserves to win the award. Most people seem to agree right now that Aaron Rodgers has done this, but I don’t think it’s that clear cut. Below I’ve listed the stats of the five best quarterbacks in the league this season. See if you can pick Rodgers from this list.

	Yards	Completion %	Touchdowns	Yards/Attempt	Passer Rating	QBR
A	4952	69.2	33	7.51	97.0	71.6
B	4381	65.6	38	8.43	112.2	82.6
C	4727	66.2	39	7.92	101.5	77.2
D	4952	67.1	32	8.15	103.3	72.5
E	3705	69.9	34	8.52	113.2	82.8

If you’re familiar enough with the stats, you will probably be able to identify everyone on the list. Quarterback A is Drew Brees. Quarterback B is Rodgers. Quarterback C is Peyton Manning. Quarterback D is Ben Roethlisberger. And Quarterback E is Tony Romo.

But the fact remains that, looking at these stats, it is impossible to claim that Rodgers is far and away the best quarterback in the league. The one place that he stands out is interceptions, which I omitted above solely because it would have made it too easy to guess which was Rodgers. He threw only five interceptions this season. The next fewest among quarterbacks to start every game was Russell Wilson with seven. Tom Brady, Roethlisberger, and Romo all had nine. Rodgers was the best at avoiding turnovers (though he did fumble the ball more than any of the other four top quarterbacks), and for that reason I would call him the best quarterback in the league.

But there is absolutely no reason to say that Rodgers was far and away the best in the NFL. He was 2^nd in the league in QBR, 2^nd in quarterback rating, 2^nd in yards per attempt, 3^rd in touchdowns, 7^th in passing yards, and 9^th in completion percentage. His efficiency numbers fall slightly short of Tony Romo’s, and his volume numbers are behind Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck.

Rodgers had a good season this year. But it doesn’t come close to being an all time great season like we saw from Peyton Manning last year or Rodgers himself in 2011. Rodgers’s stats this year are almost identical to those he put up in 2012 when he didn’t even brush the MVP discussion. He was the best quarterback in the NFL this season, but it wasn’t by enough that we just have to ignore the other positions.

So we have to ask ourselves, were there any players who dominated their position groups in the way Rodgers failed to do? Let’s start by looking at running backs. DeMarco Murray blew the competition out of the water in terms of rushing yards, topping the second place runner Le’Veon Bell by nearly five hundred yards. But look closer at these two backs and it doesn’t look quite as dominant. Both had identical yard per carry averages of 4.7, and Bell offered much more in the passing game as a receiver and a blocker. Factor in receiving yards and Murray’s lead shrinks to less than fifty. Murray also benefited from the best offensive line in the league, and I think most people would argue that the line deserves the majority of the credit for Dallas’s success.

That raises another awkward question. Is there an offensive lineman we could give this award to? It will never happen of course. Lineman don’t have the exposure or the statistics to win this award. It is also very difficult to separate one lineman’s performance from the unit as a whole. By rule voters are allowed to cast their vote for a unit, and I would be tempted to give it to the Cowboys offensive line. But I think, for the sake of being realistic, we should drop linemen from consideration in this discussion.

Wide receiver is a more interesting situation. This season it was pretty clear that Antonio Brown was the best receiver in the league. He led the league in yards, blew the competition out of the water in receptions, and ended up tied for second in receiving touchdowns. His season is great in a historical sense as well. His 1698 yards are the sixth most all time, and his 129 receptions are the second most for a single season. Only three other receivers have ever matched his 1600/120/10 stat line. Factor in being top ten in the league in punt return average and a punt return touchdown, and you have indisputably the best season put together by a receiver this year in the NFL.

This may come as a surprise to some, but a wide receiver has never won NFL MVP. The award has been won 37.5 times by a quarterback, 17.5 times by a running back (Brett Favre and Barry Sanders shared one year), once by a defensive tackle, once by a linebacker, and once by a kicker (Mark Mosely in 1982, a strike shortened year in which he missed three extra points. The 80s was a stupid time.)

Wide receiver is viewed as a position of minimal value in the league. Counting receptions, runs, and punt returns Brown touched the ball a total of 163 times. 27 running backs had more carries than that. Wide receiver has become a more valued position in recent years, but it still carries the stigma of a player who only touches the ball seven or eight times a game. (It also doesn’t help that Brown is teammate with two other MVP candidates in Roethlisberger and Bell, or that Bell actually won the team MVP award.)

No other offensive player has asserted themselves as an MVP candidate, and in other years Rodgers’s slight superiority at quarterback would have been enough for him to win the award, as happened with Tom Brady in 2010 and Peyton Manning in 2008. But this is not any other year. There is a player in the league who has dominated his position in a way that no other has.

By now you know where I’m going with this, so I’ll just spit it out. The MVP of the league should be JJ Watt. I’m a bit of a late arrival on the JJ Watt MVP train, joining over the past few weeks as he’s continued to tear offenses apart and Aaron Rodgers has slipped back to the realm of mortal quarterbacks. I do think it should be more difficult for a defensive player to win the award, and I am not at all affected by Watt doing stuff around the goalline that any backup tight end in the league could do. Watt deserves this award because of what he’s done on defense, putting together one of the best seasons in NFL history by a defensive lineman.

Watt had 20.5 sacks this year, second in the NFL to Justin Houston’s 22. But his dominance goes far beyond sack numbers. He recorded a hit on an opposing quarterback 50 times this season. This was first in the league by a mile, almost doubling the second place total of 28. He recorded 29 tackles for a loss in addition to his sacks, six more than Houston’s second place total. He scored two defensive touchdowns and recorded a safety. In all likelihood he will be a unanimous selection as Defensive Player of the Year.

Most voters breathed a sigh of relief when the Ravens won on Sunday, eliminating Houston from the playoffs. This gave them an easy out to dismiss Watt’s candidacy. After all, anyone whose team misses the playoffs can’t be that valuable. This ignores the realities of Watt’s team. Five different quarterbacks took snaps for the Texans this season. Their three best skill position players on offense battled injuries throughout the year, and the rookie first overall pick who was supposed to give Watt support from the other side did absolutely nothing.

Houston made it as far as they did almost entirely because of Watt. They entered the final two weeks of the season needing to win both games to have any shot of making the playoffs. They won both games thanks to four sacks, a safety, and a forced fumble from Watt. Had Cleveland been able to hang on and beat the Ravens, the Texans would be in the playoffs now and the strongest argument against Watt would go out the window.

Aaron Rodgers has had a fantastic season and has been the best quarterback in the league, but if you compare him to recent top quarterbacks his season is merely average. This is the same thing we went through two years ago, when Peyton Manning put together a season similar to Rodgers’s this year while Adrian Peterson and JJ Watt put together all time great campaigns. If an elite performance at another position cannot beat an average performance at quarterback, what would it take for a nonquarterback to win the award? If this is the case, should we not simply rename the award MVQ?

Rodgers will win the award in the end, and I don’t think the voting will be particularly close. But I think we’re rapidly reaching the point where we have to consider splitting this into separate awards. As long as we’re caught up with the definition of value, it will be hard to argue that a nonquarterback deserves to win the award, no matter how much more dominant he was at his position than the top quarterback. The simplest solution would be to change the criteria, to make only quarterbacks eligible for MVP and only nonquarterbacks eligible for Offensive Player of the Year. Because if we hold ourselves to the criteria we are using to give the award to Rodgers this year, then I think there’s a decent chance that Adrian Peterson will be the last nonquarterback to be able to call himself the NFL MVP.

Week Seventeen in the NFL

So we've finally made it. The final weekend of the NFL regular season. A year ago I broke down the final week of the season not by looking at the games that mattered for the playoff race but by looking at those that didn’t. After all, there are plenty of places you can go if you want to read about the divisions at stake or the wild card spots up for grabs. But chances are you’ll end up watching just as much of the games without meaning. Two teams already eliminated, now playing for draft position. A team locked in place and resting its best players. Or even games where playoff seeding is still at stake, but only if something goes terribly awry.

This year Week Seventeen seems even more meaningless than normal. Ten teams have already clinched playoff spots, and New England has already locked up home field advantage in the AFC. Carolina and Atlanta are playing for the privilege of facing Ryan Lindley in the first round, and four teams are fighting various collapses to remain alive for the final playoff spot in the AFC.Every other team, sixteen in total, has been eliminated.

There are a pair of matchups between teams that have already clinched the playoffs and now only have to decide who wins the division. Because of the vast number of irrelevant games, I decided to include Green Bay-Detroit and Pittsburgh-Cincinnati in the relevant category. There are actually only four games this weekend featuring teams who could still make or miss the playoffs depending on the result of this weekend. Week Seventeen: not quite as worthless as it’s been in the past, but still pretty meaningless to most parties involved.

Semi-Meaningful

There is something at stake in these games, even if it isn’t much. Seeding, or high draft picks. Even the seeds are mostly predictable at this point, as long as we don’t see any shocking upsets. If you’re holding your breath for any of these games to matter, you should probably just breathe.

Cowboys @ Redskins

Chase for 400

The Cowboys have already clinched their division, and technically they are still alive for a first round bye. But this would require losses by both the Seahawks and the Cardinals (I’m just going to ignore scenarios involving ties because this makes my life so much simpler). They face no risk of dropping into the four seed, which is actually unfortunate for them. The team in the four seed will most likely get to face Arizona, while the team in the three seed will have to play the loser of the Green Bay-Detroit game. As always, the NFC South has all the luck.

If you are going to watch this game, keep your eyes on Spray Tan (known to some as DeMarco Murray). Specifically, keep your eyes on his carry total. In NFL history there have only ever been five seasons in which a running back has reached 400 total carries. For comparison, no other running back this season is currently over 300 carries. Spray Tan needs 27 rushing attempts in this final game to reach that staggering number. It sounds like a lot, and there is no reason Dallas should give him the ball that many times in a meaningless game. But there was also no reason they should have given him 22 carries in a blowout victory against the Colts the week after he received surgery on his hand. Even though this season has been a remarkable success, the Cowboys continue to exist in a plane beyond reason and logic.

Saints @ Buccaneers

Suck for the Duck

It would be difficult to find two teams more disappointed in their seasons than the Saints and the Buccaneers. New Orleans was still alive for the division until their loss to Atlanta last weekend, but now they are stuck playing a meaningless game against a team in line for the first overall selection. The Buccaneers have been truly dreadful since the opening kickoff of their first game. They have a strong case to make for being the worst team in the league, and with a loss they can make that official. A loss in this game could make it all worthwhile, even moments such as this:

Marcus Mariota is considered the top prospect in the draft, and he fits a major need for Tampa Bay. Even if his skills don’t fit what they're looking for, they have the option of going for Jameis Winston. Of course, all this is before the gauntlet of the draft process that quarterbacks are forced to run through. Who knows how they will be torn apart over the coming months? But I think it’s clear that it would be a terrible mistake for the Buccaneers to pass up on a quarterback. Of course, with Lovie Smith at the helm I would only be mildly surprised if they went in a different direction.

Raiders @ Broncos

Peyton on the Edge

A year ago I highlighted this game between these teams as one to watch with Peyton Manning on the verge of shattering single season passing records. This year we somehow find ourselves at the exact opposite point. Rather than watching Manning to experience one of the greatest passing performances of all time, we are watching what might be the collapse of an icon. Over the past few weeks he has been straight up bad (by his standards) and last week against Cincinnati he probably cost them the game with his four interceptions.

The Broncos are still likely to get the two seed, and their defense is good enough to keep them competitive with any of the teams in the weak AFC playoff field. But they aren’t going to win a championship unless Peyton Manning is playing like Peyton Manning. Some have speculated that his issues have come from injury, which could pose a problem going forward. It’s also possible that this is just a cold streak. Tom Brady went through a similar stretch earlier in the year, provoking similar discussions about whether or not he was finished. If Manning is going to get back on track, this is the perfect opponent to do it against.

Cardinals @ 49ers

Colliding Catastrophes

By now enough electronic ink has been spilled about San Francisco. This year was a disaster, spurred by injuries, coaching controversies, and the failure of Colin Kaepernick to take the next step. Most 49ers fans and players just want this season over with, and they will get their wish by the end of Sunday. The team they’re playing doesn’t have that good fortune. Arizona has already locked up a playoff berth—they’ll end up with the fifth seed unless they win and Seattle loses—but right now they look like just as big a mess as San Francisco.

Injuries have decimated their defense since the preseason, but the Cardinals managed to fight through them thanks to the brilliance of defensive coordinator Todd Bowles. Unfortunately, their offense does not possess the same resiliency. Carson Palmer is lost for the season, and there continues to be uncertainty about when backup Drew Stanton will return. Ryan Lindley looked as hopeless last week as you would expect from Ryan Lindley playing the Seahawks, leading to the decision to bench him for rookie Logan Thomas. But Thomas must not have impressed during practice, because it looks like they have already decided to go back to Lindley. Whoever plays quarterback for the Cardinals, expect a truly magnificent train wreck of a performance that will likely be matched only by the team on the other sideline.

Rams @ Seahawks

Aaron Donald the Destroyer

I know I’ve mentioned this already, but Donald should be the Defensive Rookie of the Year. In fact, if they didn’t bother to separate offense and defense, he would still deserve to win over any of the offensive candidates. He leads all rookies in sacks despite playing on the interior of the line and despite not moving into the starting lineup until Week Six. He probably deserved to make the Pro Bowl, and I think there is a solid case to be made that he should have gone first overall to Houston.

Donald explodes once or twice a game, bursting through the line and making a play five or six yards deep in the backfield. But his contributions are not limited to these occasional bursts. He will be going against a Seahawks line that is more than a little questionable, and he should be able to plow through play in and play out. The challenging part will be bringing down the opposing ball carrier, whether it’s Russell Wilson or Marshawn Lynch. But even if he can’t make the tackle, he will create havoc in the backfield and allow the rest of the talented defense to swarm to the ball.

Utterly Pointless

As meaningless as these first five games are, the next five mean even less. Three matchups of teams already eliminated from the playoffs, and two featuring AFC teams already locked into their playoff positions. I don’t understand why they even bother playing these games, but I’ll enjoy watching them nonetheless.

Colts @ Titans

Sometimes Bad Football Can Be Fun Too

This is far and away the ugliest game of the week. The Titans are probably the most miserable team to watch in the league. There is maybe one player on their team worth getting excited about, and even Jurell Casey is having a down season. No matter who they throw out at quarterback, the result is going to be ugly and uninspiring. No team has cycled through as many bland running back options this year, and even their exciting receiving talent has been dimmed by the dismal talent around them.

The Colts aren’t playing particularly great football either. After spending most of the season solidly entrenched as the third team in the AFC, they’ve dropped down the fourth seed and will remain there barring a tie between the Steelers and the Bengals. They barely escaped the Browns and the Texans—two teams without quarterbacks—and they were demolished by Tony Romo and the Cowboys. Andrew Luck has fallen out of the MVP race, and their running attack has somehow gotten worse. As bad as the Titans are, I would not be stunned to see the Colts choke this game away.

Eagles @ Giants

Fletcher Cox

I was vocal about my belief that Mark Sanchez could lead the Eagles just as far as, if not farther than, Nick Foles. I was wrong. Sanchez hasn’t been their only problem over the past few weeks, but I don’t think it’s unreasonable to say he’s been the biggest (Bradley Fletcher might disagree, but I think their offensive struggles have been more significant than their defensive.) Sanchez took over a team with a relatively smooth road to the playoffs, and now they enter the final week of the season without even a glimmer of hope. The Eagles are mathematically eliminated in a week that should have seen them playing for the division and a possible first round bye.

It’s too bad that their offense has struggled so much, because their defense has been a revelation over the past few weeks. Specifically their front seven, and specifically Fletcher Cox. A first round pick back in 2012, Cox has blossomed over the last half of the season into one of the most disruptive defensive linemen in the league. He can provide pressure up the middle or off the edge, and he gives their defense flexibility to attack from a multitude of directions. Coming into the season the defense was Philadelphia’s biggest questionmark. Now they have a very intriguing unit that could become dangerous with the addition of a cornerback. It’s too bad their offense has fallen to pieces though.

Jets @ Dolphins

Tannehill’s Lasting Impression

There is no question that Tennehill is in the midst of his best season. His completion percentage has skyrocketed to 67 percent. His yards per attempt and touchdown passes are at a career high, and he has a chance to set a career low in interceptions. At times this year he has looked like a player capable of living up to his lofty draft position. At others he has struggled, and with the performance of their defense it is difficult not to point at him and the offense as the primary culprits for their failure to make the playoffs.

The Dolphins have a decision to make. Tannehill’s contract goes through next year, but they have the chance to lock him up through 2016 using the fifth year option clause of his rookie contract. This would cost them $15 million for that year, though they would have the ability to save that money by cutting him after 2015 provided he doesn’t suffer an injury. This is still a major investment, and Tannehill’s uneven play has left questions about whether he is worth it. With the announcement that the Dolphins will be retaining head coach Joe Philbin it appears inevitable he will receive this additional year. It will be controversial no matter what, but a strong performance in the final game of the  year will certainly make fans feel better about the decision to stick with him.

Bills @ Patriots

Brady vs the Stampede

How do you like my nickname for the Bills defense? Terrible, isn’t it? Yeah, I know, I’m bad at this. But over the past few weeks people have steadily become aware that Buffalo has one of the best defenses in the NFL. They stifled Peyton Manning, and they suffocated Aaron Rodgers. They got caught napping a bit against Derek Carr and the Raiders, but this remains a dangerous defense against the pass. They boast more across the board talent in their front four than any other team in the league, and their secondary has slowly come together as the season has gone along.

They weathered Manning, they vanquished Rodgers, and now they face one of the other heads on the hydra of elite NFL quarterbacks. Brady hasn’t been playing at Manning or Rodgers level this season, but he is still an efficient and dangerous passer. Buffalo hasn’t won a game in New England since 2000 (which I mentioned when this game occurred last year), but they are as set to win now as ever. Marcell Dareus’s status is in doubt for Sunday, but if he plays the Bills will have the most dangerous combination of interior pass rushers in the league. Brady has always been troubled by pressure up the middle, and even though this game means absolutely nothing for either team the Bills would love to get the Foxborough Monkey off their back.

Bears @ Vikings

Teddy Time

For much of the season it was a tossup between Teddy Bridgewater and Derek Carr for who was the best rookie quarterback in the league. That is no longer the case. Over the past four weeks Bridgewater hasn’t just been the best rookie quarterback in the league. He’s been one of the best quarterbacks in the league period. He has completed more than 70 percent of his passes in each of these games while averaging more than 12 yards per completion (almost identical to Tony Romo's numbers for the season). He is attacking farther down the field than he was early in the year, and he is throwing the ball with more precision and success. Just look at some of his passes from the game below, perfect touch throws all over the field usually with pressure in his face.

 

With the Vikings eliminated he won’t have the chance to show off his skills during the playoffs, but this game gives him the perfect opportunity to leave the Vikings optimistic going into the offseason. The Bears are reeling, and the Vikings should realistically be able to handle them without much problem. Even if their defense continues its late season struggles and lets the Bears pull this one out, I expect Bridgewater to continue to impress against a defense that gave him issues earlier this season. Bridgewater has seemed to improve with every game he plays this year, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he capped the season with his best performance to date.

College Bowl Prospects

The NFL season is winding to a close which can only mean one thing: it’s time to start looking forward to the draft! The college football season ended several weeks ago, but fortunately most teams still have one or two meaningless games left to play. And since college football exists solely to feed players to the NFL (just as college itself exists only to train people for jobs so they have money to spend on the NFL) I think it is best that we look at these games as one last chance to evaluate the talent in next year’s draft.

Before we go any further, I just want to make it clear that I’m aware that there have already been several bowl games already. But no one cares about any bowl game that takes place before Christmas. The real games with the real talent are coming up, and that’s what I’m going to focus my attention on.

For each game I selected one player (I chose one for each team in the playoff) with significant NFL potential to keep your eye on. All of these players are draft eligible, but some are still underclassmen who could choose not to declare for the draft. These players I have marked with an asterisk. For each player I prepared a very preliminary scouting report, mostly focusing on their role on their college team and what skills they possess that have caught the eye of the NFL. Remember, the draft process is a tumultuous time and any projections made in December are wildly meaningless.

Because I'm going to spend a lot of time discussing quarterbacks over the coming months, I decided to stick to non quarterback players for this. More thorough analyses will come later, but for now you should just keep an eye on these players and try to evaluate them for yourselves. Try not to focus too much on the results of the games themselves. The winner is usually the team that is least depressed about where their season ended up.

December 26

You know what? December 26 sucks too. I’ll meet you on December 27.

December 27

Cincinnati vs Virginia Tech

Kyshoen Jarrett – S, Virginia Tech

An inauspicious start. I’d like to be able to throw this game away as well, but instead I’ll settle for discussing a player who may or may not be drafted (don’t worry, most of the other games have someone who will probably go in the first three rounds.) Jarrett spends a lot of time in the box playing essentially a linebacker position or matched up across from a slot receiver. He’s nothing special athletically, but he is a versatile player who tackles well in the open field and should be able to carve out a role in the NFL on special teams.

Arizona State vs Duke

Jaelen Strong* – WR, Arizona State

I tried to write this without making a pun using Strong’s last name, but it simply isn’t possible. He is a fine route runner with good down the field burst, but what really sets him apart is his strength. He is 6’4” and plays even larger, snatching contested balls out of the air and making plays using his massive frame. He plays all over the field for Arizona State, and they go out of their way to see that he gets the ball thrown his way. He will go in the first round this year, and good workout numbers could elevate him to the second receiver taken off the board.

Miami vs South Carolina

AJ Cann – OG, South Carolina

Cann might be the best pure guard prospect available in this year’s draft. He lines up on the left side for South Carolina and spends most of his time pass blocking or performing simple down blocks. He’ll pull every now and then and is successful when he does so, but he’s at his best when he can just focus on the man across from him. His strength is as a pass blocker. He anchors well and doesn’t let himself get shoved backwards to collapse the pocket. He isn’t as talented as some of the guards drafted in recent years, but he’ll make a nice late first round pick.

Boston College vs Penn State

Andy Gallik – C, Boston College

Gallik will likely end up being a middle round pick in the draft, which is about the selection a team should use if they want a serviceable but unspectacular interior lineman. Serviceable but unspectacular is probably the best way to describe Gallik. He isn’t going to overpower opposing defenders, but he latches on well and is rarely beaten straight up. He moves well when asked to pull, suggesting he could move to guard easily if the team that drafts him has such a need. He’s a solid option as a utility interior lineman with the potential to eventually move into a starting role.

Nebraska vs USC

Randy Gregory* – DE, Nebraska

I could also have written about Leonard Williams for USC, but I had Gregory written up prior to the announcement that these two teams were playing each other. So instead of going with one of the top three players in the draft, I’ll break down one of the top five instead. Gregory is a likely top ten pick, and on paper it isn’t difficult to see why. He has all the measurables you could want from a pass rusher. He is an every down player for the Cornhuskers, usually lining up on the right side of the defensive line and rushing the passer. He will occasionally line up as a stand up linebacker, though he still almost always ends up chasing after the quarterback. He holds ground well against the run, but he is at his best when matched up one on one against an opposing tackle. His inside move is devastating, and unless he is constantly double teamed he will find a way to get to the quarterback.

December 29

Texas A&M vs West Virginia

Kevin White – WR, West Virginia

White has fallen off some as the year has gone along, but early in the season he was right there with Amari Cooper as the best receiver in college football. He lines up almost exclusively on the right side of the field, though he will occasionally bump down into the slot. He has excellent quickness off the line to beat press coverage, and he attacks the ball in the air to win contested passes. He is West Virginia’s most dangerous weapon, and they will definitely try to feed him the ball.

Oklahoma vs Clemson

Vic Beasley – DE, Clemson

Beasley isn’t one of the top pass rushers available in the draft, but he will provide good value for some team in the middle of the first round. For Clemson he lines up almost exclusively on the right end of the defensive line, varying between a two, three, or four point stance. His best move is a speed rush around the edge, but he shows willingness to mix it up with a bull rush or an inside move. These aren’t particularly dangerous weapons, but they keep an opposing blocker off balance enough for him to get around the edge a couple times a game.

Arkansas vs Texas

Malcom Brown* – DT, Texas

Brown will likely go in the first or the second round in this year’s draft, playing either the three technique in a 4-3 or a defensive end in the 3-4. He plays in the former scheme at Texas and can usually be found on the inside, though he occasionally bumps out to defensive end. He flashes explosion and quickness to beat opposing linemen off the ball, but he spends most of his time engaging a blocker and trying to throw them aside once he’s read the play. He has the versatility to play several styles in the NFL, but he lacks the strength to push offensive linemen around and the size to be a real space eater against the run.

December 30

Notre Dame vs LSU

La’El Collins – OT, LSU

LSU’s left tackle may be the most physically impressive offensive lineman in this year’s draft. He has quick feet for a man of such massive size, with long arms and the strength to make use of them. He excels in pass protection, keeping his center of mass fixed above his feet to prevent being knocked backwards and controlling opposing rushers with his powerful hands. LSU doesn’t ask a lot of him in terms of blocking in space, but whenever he is put in that position he handles it with ease. His run blocking needs a bit more work, which drops him out of the top ten closer to the middle of the first round. But he has probably the highest upside of any offensive lineman in this class.

Georgia vs Louisville

Leonard Floyd* – OLB, Georgia

Apparently Floyd has decided against turning pro, but since I already have this written up you might as well read it. Floyd plays all over the field as a linebacker for Georgia, though he occasionally drops into a three point stance as a defensive lineman. He has one of the most diverse pass rushing games of the draft’s top prospects, mixing a variety of twists and inside moves with the standard speed rush around the edge. He is very good at disengaging from blockers, and he darts through open gaps to cause quick pressure. His best work comes not when he’s lined up in the edge but when he is pulled into the A-Gap, where his quickness lets him blow between guards and centers to get into the backfield.

Maryland vs Stanford

Andrus Peat – OT, Stanford

Peat is yet another NFL lineman churned out by the Stanford factory. He is a phenomenal pass protector on the quarterback’s blind side. He anchors well against power rushes, but he maintains excellent balance that allows him to slide quickly from side to side to handle speed rushes and counter moves. He is less effective in the running game, but he has the pass blocking abilities that are the primary skill most NFL teams look for in an offensive tackle.

December 31

Ole Miss vs TCU

Cody Prewitt – S, Ole Miss

Ole Miss is a team built around young talent, and Prewitt—their best draft eligible player—will likely be only a midround pick this year. His primary use as a ballhawking safety who usually lines up ten to fifteen yards off the ball. He will occasionally rotate up at the snap to try to undercut a quick route, but for the most part he hangs back in a deep zone. He is a capable tackler and a big hitter when receivers come into his area, but he rarely sticks his nose into traffic against the run. He doesn’t offer the versatility of some of the higher rated safeties, but he’s a good option for a team looking for someone solid to handle the back end of their coverage.

Boise State vs Arizona

Jay Ajayi* – RB, Boise State

The running back class this year is as talented as it has been in a few years. Ajayi isn’t in the top tier of runners, but he could be a good value add in the second or third round. What he lacks in straight line speed he makes up for in balance, strength, and shiftiness. He falls into the young running back trap of trying to bounce outside too often, but as long as he is moving downhill he is a dangerous runner. In the passing game he is much better as a receiver than a blocker. He will catch the ball either off checkdowns or designed screens, and he is dangerous once he has the ball in the open field.

Mississippi State vs Georgia Tech

Benardrick McKinney* – ILB, Mississippi State

Inside linebacker is not a particularly valued position in the NFL, and you can usually find a solid starter without much trouble in the second round. McKinney is a perfect example of this. He isn’t a world shattering playmaker like Patrick Willis or Ray Lewis, but he is a solid defender against the run with plenty of room to grow. He plays with excellent aggression, always attacking downhill towards the ballcarriers in the running game. He isn’t asked to do much against the pass, which means he is perfect to go against Georgia Tech’s run heavy triple option scheme.

January 1

Auburn vs Wisconsin

Melvin Gordon* – RB, Wisconsin

Running back is not a particularly valued position in the NFL, but Gordon might be one of the few talented enough to make it into the first round. His speed is incredible, and he is at his best when he can get through a clean hole or bounce around the edge. But what really sets him apart is his vision and patience. He can navigate through congested areas, and he accelerates whenever he sees a tiny opening. He doesn’t have the shiftiness to be dangerous in the open field, but he is better at breaking tackles than people realize. He is pretty much all Wisconsin has on offense, so expect to see a heavy workload in his final game with the Badgers.

Michigan State vs Baylor

Shilique Calhoun* – DE, Michigan State

In early projections Calhoun was considered a top ten prospect, but a disappointing season has caused him to drop in the first round. He plays either defensive end for Michigan State, always in a down stance and very rarely dropping into coverage. His greatest asset is his speed, explosive off the ball and around the edge. He is a phenomenal run defender, which has actually caused some of his drop in production this year. Against run heavy teams (aka the Big Ten) Michigan State often asked him to play less aggressive as a pass rusher, sacrificing pass rushing to stop the run. Baylor is good at running the ball, but he will still likely be let loose more in the bowl than in most games this season.

Missouri vs Minnesota

Shane Ray* – DE, Missouri

The top of this year’s draft is absolutely loaded with pass rushing talent. While Ray may not have the freakish measurables of some of the others who will join him in the top ten, he certainly has the productivity. He lines up everywhere along the defensive line, both as an end and as a tackle. His game is a bit different from most of the other pass rushers. He rarely turns to the speed rush around the edge, preferring instead to shoot through one of the inside gaps using his strength and his speed. He makes phenomenal use of his hands in shedding blocks, allowing him to be a force both against the pass and the run. He is a unique talent, and it will be interesting to see how he is utilized in the NFL.

January 2

Houston vs Pittsburgh

TJ Clemmings – OT, Pittsburgh

Okay, the real reasons to watch this game are the two freakishly gifted players on Pitt’s offense. But both Tyler Boyd and James Conner are true sophomores, meaning we have to wait another year before they can escape to the NFL. So instead check out Pitt’s right tackle, a likely first or second round pick in this year’s draft. The distinction between the two tackle positions has blurred somewhat in recent years, but Clemmings is as pure a right tackle as it gets. He is a physical mauler who is decent in space in the running game but struggles in pass protection. Fortunately Pitt’s game is built around the run, meaning he gets to spend most of his time showing off the best aspects of his game.

Iowa vs Tennessee

Brandon Scherff – OT, Iowa

One of the more highly touted linemen in the draft and a likely first round pick, Scherff is probably better suited to play guard at the next level. He is a mauler in the run game who occasionally struggles in pass protection—think Greg Robinson without the athletic upside—but he has what it takes to be a strong pass blocker in tight spaces. As soon as he gets his hands on a defender it’s over, and he uses this strength to dominate in the running game. Fortunately for everyone involved, Iowa is smart enough to run the ball more often than they pass it.

Kansas State vs UCLA

Tyler Lockett – WR, Kansas State

UCLA has some interesting prospects—notably their quarterback Brett Hundley—but I’m going to go with the best player on Kansas State’s side of the ball. Lockett is a quick receiver who lacks the sort of size or strength to be a top prospect, but he should go somewhere in the mid to late rounds of this year’s draft. He is best suited for the slot at the next level, but he lines up on the outside on pretty much every play for Kansas State. He creates good separation with his quickness, which is essential because he is not going to be winning any contested balls. Physicality is his weakness, but if given space he can be very dangerous.

Washington vs Oklahoma State

Shaquille Thompson* – ILB, Washington

An athletic marvel who has played both running back and linebacker this year, most scouts agree that Thompson is best suited to play linebacker at the next level. His athleticism will make him a top fifteen pick, even though he has a lot of work to do. He usually lines up in the middle of the field five or six yards back from the line of scrimmage. He plays conservatively from this depth, reading plays and scraping over the wash before using his incredible burst to close down on the ball carrier. He will have to learn to be more aggressive in the NFL, and he needs a lot of work learning how to disengage from blockers. But in college his athleticism is enough to set him apart on the field.

January 3

East Carolina vs Florida

Dante Fowler Jr* – DE, Florida

Fowler lines up all over the place for Florida. Seriously, good luck finding him before the snap. He’ll be down in a three point stance at either end of the line or playing up as a linebacker. He rushes off the edge, rushes up the middle, and even occasionally drops into coverage. The productivity isn’t at the same level as some other top pass rushers, which is what will prevent him from making it up to the top of the first round. But the raw tools are all there. He has the power to knock linemen aside, and he is as explosive off the ball as anyone in this year’s draft.

January 4

Toledo vs Arkansas State

This doesn’t make any sense. Why is this the last bowl game? Screw it, I’m moving on to the playoff.

Playoff

Arik Armstead* – DE, Oregon

The premier prospect for Oregon is Marcus Mariota, but I said I wasn’t going to discuss quarterbacks. Their next best prospect is Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, but he won’t play in this game due to a knee injury. So instead I’ll go with Armstead, a midround talent as a defensive end. Armstead is massive, and he is probably best suited to playing as a 3-4 space eating defensive end. He plays on the left side for Oregon and prefers to engage blockers before trying to break free, rather than trying to shoot by them. He doesn’t offer much as a pass rusher, but he is stout against the run and will contain the quarterback.

PJ Williams* – CB, Florida State

Williams is a large, physical cornerback who excels in press coverage and should go in the first two rounds of the draft. He occasionally will play in the slot, but most of the time he lines spread wide on the short side of the field. This allows him to use his physicality to force receivers towards the sideline. He is a strong tackler with decent ball skills, though he occasionally becomes too physical when the ball is in the air. Primarily a man coverage player, he does have the skills to play in zone when asked to do so.

Michael Bennett – DT, Ohio State

The strength of Ohio State’s defense is along the line. Bennett isn’t their best defensive lineman, but he is a solid, veteran presence in the middle. He isn’t particularly quick or explosive, but his strength is on another level from most defensive lineman. He does not get moved backwards, and he usually drives the opposing lineman into the backfield. He isn’t the best at disengaging from blocks, but when he can control an offensive lineman with his hands he can toss him aside with ease. His limitations will keep him out of the first round, but he should go sometime on the second day of the draft.

Landon Collins* – S, Alabama

Collins is the highest rated safety in the draft, and he has a good chance to make his way up into the top ten picks. For Alabama he mostly plays the deep safety role, though he has the versatility to be used several ways in the NFL. He slides down and matches up man to man against the inside slot receiver when facing a trips alignment, and he occasionally will come on a blitz off the edge. He has great burst and closing speed, and he is good at playing the ball when it is in the air. He isn’t particularly aggressive as a run defender, but this may be as much about scheme as it is about him.