The Playoff Race Hits Thanksgiving

We’re headed down the stretch in the NFL, and the playoff race is insane. In a normal season a 7-4 record would have a team sitting comfortably in a playoff spot. This year it’s only enough to make it into the top half of the league. Yes, right now there are sixteen teams with a record of 7-4 or better. Only eleven of these teams can make the playoffs (because the disaster that is the NFC South gets a spot) meaning there are five teams currently sitting three games above .500 who will end up watching the postseason from home.

The AFC is probably the more complex of the two conferences, but because the Thanksgiving games factor so heavily into the NFC race, that’s where I’m going to direct my focus this week. Each of the three matchups carries heavy significance for a specific division. The Cowboys and Eagles are fighting for control of the NFC East. The Seahawks and 49ers are battling for second in the NFC West. And the Lions are fighting bitterly to keep up with the surging Packers in the NFC North.

Since these are marquee games on a day where everyone is gathered to give thanks for football (Note: this is not the story I was told in elementary school. But they also told me in elementary school that Christopher Columbus thought the Earth was flat and that bumblebees should be physically incapable of flight. So why the hell should I believe a word they said?) I am going to break down each matchup individually before examining the teams in the larger context of the playoff race. I’m not going to give any explicit predictions, but you should be able to figure out what I think is going to happen.

Chicago Bears (5-6) vs Detroit Lions (7-4)

(Green Bay Packers 8-3)

Lions remaining schedule: Buccaneers, Vikings, @Bears, @Packers

Packers remaining schedule: Patriots, Falcons, @Bills, @Buccaneers, Lions

The first game of Thursday is both the least relevant and least exciting. The presence of Chicago is a major part of this, but the Lions deserve some blame as well. Of the seven teams competing for the five available spots in the NFC they are probably the worst, and their only saving grace is the relative ease of their schedule. Already a game behind the Packers, they can’t afford a single slipup if they want their Week Seventeen matchup to mean something.

This game against the Bears looks like the perfect opportunity for such a slipup. The Bears are playing better than they have all season (not a great accomplishment, but still something) and are coming off two consecutive victories. The Lions are reeling from two consecutive defeats. There is a wide gap in the quality of competition we’re discussing—the Bears beat the Vikings and the Buccaneers, the Lions lost to the Cardinals and the Patriots—but right now I’m not sure it’s particularly clear which team is playing better football.

The two teams in this game are likely the two competing for the most disappointing offense in the NFL. The Bears were supposed to be dominant on that side of the ball, with one of the best running backs in the league and a pair of receivers no other team could match. Detroit’s early season struggles were blamed on the absence of Calvin Johnson, but in the three games since his return they have scored a total of 35 points. It is becoming harder and harder to argue that they are going to turn it around. The talent is still there, but right now it looks like Jim Caldwell has killed Detroit’s offense as effectively as he killed Baltimore’s last season.

This game is going to come down to the matchup of Chicago’s offense versus Detroit’s defense. A couple weeks ago Chicago faced a defense very similar to Detroit’s in Minnesota. Both teams are built around a havoc wreaking front four, and both struggle in the back end when they can’t get pressure on the quarterback. Against the Vikings Chicago managed to weather the pressure by throwing jump balls to their massive receivers and producing big plays on the outside. A similar strategy will work against Detroit, whose secondary is even worse than Minnesota’s.

But against the Vikings the Bears also had the benefit of a phenomenal performance from Forte, something they can’t count on this Thursday. Detroit is one of the best teams in the league against the run, and DeAndre Levy should be able to contain Forte as a receiver. This game will be tight and low scoring, but in the end I don’t think Chicago has what it takes to put up points against the Lions.

Even if they win this game, Detroit faces a tough battle to reach the playoffs. I think the Packers will coast to the division title, losing one or two games at most the rest of the way. Detroit will have to settle to fight for the wild card, and it’s a fight they can’t win unless they get their offense together. Every victory they’ve had since Week One has been incredibly tight, and eventually their luck will turn against them. Four straight easy opponents could pave their path to the playoffs, but I think they will lose one or two more before they face a superior Packers team the final week of the season.

Philadelphia Eagles (8-3) vs Dallas Cowboys (8-3)

Eagles remaining schedule: Seahawks, Cowboys, @Redskins, @Giants

Cowboys remaining schedule: @Bears, @Eagles, Colts, Redskins

As you can see from their schedules these two teams face each other twice over the next three weeks. A pair of wins would in all likelihood clinch the division for either team, while a split would leave us with another couple confusing weeks to muddle through. Apart from the games against each other, they both have one challenging but winnable game (Seattle for the Eagles and Indianapolis for the Cowboys) and two must win games against inferior competition.

The tales of these two offenses have been the tales of their lines. They have plenty of weapons on the outside and in the backfield, but the fortunes of these units have swung around the players in the trenches. Dallas’s offense has reached an elite level thanks to the emergence of the best offensive line in football, a unit that is now receiving buzz for MVP (yes, apparently it is allowed for voters to cast their ballots for a unit. I didn’t realize this before now either.)

Philadelphia has followed the exact opposite course. Last year they had one of the best offenses in the league thanks to a dominant line, but injuries have crippled them across the front this year. Jason Peters has been present for the entire season, but no other lineman has played even 70 percent of their offensive snaps. Lane Johnson has returned from suspension and Evan Mathis and Jason Kelce have recovered from early season injuries, but they will be without Todd Herremans for the rest of the season. It isn’t difficult to see what this has done to their offense, as they have fallen from the best running team in the league last year to 21st this season.

Philadelphia has survived so far thanks to their defense (Connor Barwin has been fantastic, and the rest of their front seven is solid as well) and their special teams. They are first in the league in special teams DVOA, and they have scored a total of 10 non-offensive touchdowns this season. For reference, the Jaguars and the Raiders have each scored a total of 18 touchdowns this year.

This is fantastic for them, and it has certainly helped them reach their 8-3 record. But it’s also a bit concerning, as this is the sort of thing that does not hold up in the long run. Eventually Philadelphia is going to have to find other ways to score points. Mark Sanchez has looked like Mark Sanchez since taking over the offense, and LeSean McCoy looks tentative even when the holes are there. The only parts of their offense functioning at a high level are Darren Sproles and Jeremy Maclin, good players but not the sort you can build a team around.

Thursday’s game will feature an offense struggling to break out against a defense struggling to hold things together. Dallas has outperformed all expectations this year, but simple competence on defense has been the biggest surprise of the season. We’ve already seen the first hints of the regression, and this could be the week that it all falls apart. Their linebackers should be able to bottle up McCoy, but they only need to make a couple mistakes for him to kill them. I don’t think they will be able to get any pressure on Sanchez, and they will have trouble forcing his normal mistakes.

The Eagles may or may not be able to score on the Cowboys, but I don’t think Dallas’s offense will have any real issues with Philadelphia’s defense. They can run the ball against anybody, and as long as they sustain a consistent running game they can handle Philadelphia’s pressure. The Eagles don’t have anyone on the outside who can match up with Dez Bryant and Terrence Williams, and barring a boneheaded performance from Romo the Cowboys should be just fine.

In a weird way, it might actually benefit these teams to be on the losing end of this series. Of course, if they can somehow jump the Cardinals or the Packers to earn a first round bye, that would be a huge advantage going forward. But Green Bay is playing better than any other NFC team right now, and Arizona has essentially a two game lead over both these teams thanks to tiebreakers. In all likelihood, the winner of this division will end up with the three seed and have to host the second wild card team in the first round.

There are still a lot of possibilities that could shake out, but there’s a decent chance the loser of this division would end up as the top wild card team, giving them a first round matchup against the winner of the NFC South. I know all the history about hosting a playoff game, I remember the 7-9 Seahawks knocking off the Saints in 2010, but the teams in the NFC South are really, really bad. If given a choice between going on the road to Atlanta or New Orleans and hosting a team like Seattle, Detroit, or San Francisco, I would be packing my bags in a heartbeat.

This is all still very up in the air, and neither of these teams is going to start tanking with five weeks to go in order to get a better matchup. But if they split their series and are still tied with two weeks to go, expect to hear a few rumblings in the media, and possibly even from people within the organizations. Both these teams are likely playoff bound, and it wouldn’t be absurd for them to start looking ahead.

Seattle Seahawks (7-4) vs San Francisco 49ers (7-4)

(Arizona Cardinals 9-2)

Seahawks remaining schedule: @Eagles, 49ers, @Cardinals, Rams

49ers remaining schedule: @Raiders, @Seahawks, Chargers, Cardinals

Cardinals remaining schedule: @Falcons, Chiefs, @Rams, Seahawks, @49ers

Like the Cowboys and the Eagles, the Seahawks and the 49ers will be playing two games against each other over the next three weeks. Both these teams already have four losses, and they are two games back of the division lead. This makes it even more crucial that they take this series. A split would leave both teams on equal ground, but two losses would essentially eliminate that team from playoff contention.

These were two teams with tremendous expectations coming into the season, and right now it’s probably fair to say that they are the two most uninspiring seven win teams in the league. It is hard to see either of these teams as a Super Bowl contender the way they’re playing right now, and if the season ended today they would both be on the outside looking in.

Offensively their problems stem from a similar source: a lack of progress from their young quarterbacks. Colin Kaepernick has had an up and down career since taking over as the starter, showing flashes so brilliant that we had no choice but to overlook his occasional struggles. This was supposed to be the year that he finally took off, and it simply hasn’t happened. Their running attack has dropped off even more than people expected, and they have made no gains in the passing game to offset it. If anything they’ve regressed, thanks to disappointing seasons from Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree.

Russell Wilson was considered to be a more reliable quantity coming into the season, but he has been every bit as disappointing as Kaepernick. His numbers across the board still look fairly similar to his first two seasons. He is still ruthlessly efficient, completing a high percentage of passes and avoiding turnovers. But his yards per attempt has fallen to a below average level as the deep passing game has disappeared from Seattle’s offense. He has been more active and effective as a runner, but so far this year he hasn’t done anything to terrify opposing teams as a passer.

Seattle’s offense boasts a stronger running game and San Francisco has better weapons on the outside, but for the most part these teams have made it as far as they have thanks to their defenses. But even this side of the ball has been a bit strange this season. Seattle’s once dominant pass defense is a shell of its former self, unable to hold up in coverage without a pass rush to force the quarterback to unload the ball. Their strength has been against the run, much as people expected from the 49ers defense. But San Francisco has turned things upside down as well. They are no longer a dominant force against the run, but their unheralded secondary has stepped up in a big way to give them the best pass defense in the league.

These are two very evenly matched teams, just as they have been for the past two seasons. The difference is, this year they are fighting for one of the bottom slots in the playoffs rather than a chance at a championship. It’s hard for me to know what will happen in this game. I think San Francisco will slow down Seattle’s running game enough to stymie their offense at times, but I’m not sure if I trust Kaepernick to take advantage of the time he has to exploit Seattle down the field. San Francisco’s offensive line is a mockery of the unit that dominated the league the past three years, and Seattle’s nonexistent pass rush might actually be able to get home in this game.

Picking a winner for an individual game is tough, but I definitely expect a split out of their series. Neither of these teams is strong enough to grab this race by the throat. They will continue to battle down the stretch, working through the two toughest remaining schedules of NFC contenders. Right now neither team is in the playoffs, and I wouldn’t be stunned to find this still the case in five weeks. I expect one of the teams will pull themselves together in time for a late season surge, and I think Thursday’s game will go a long way to showing us which team we can expect this from.

Future Hall of Famers - Defense

Last week I went through the players still in the league and attempted to figure out which are Hall of Fame bound. Today I’m doing the same with the other side of the ball. As with offense, I judged these players based only on what they’ve achieved to this point in their careers. I’m not trying to predict the future here, even if the future is really easy to predict in some of these cases. The question I’m asking isn’t, “Will these players make the Hall of Fame eventually?” The question I’m asking is, “Would these players make the Hall of Fame if they retired today?”

You’ll notice that there are fewer players on this list than there were on the first. This is largely due to the nature of the game, where offensive players attract far more attention than defensive. If you look at the breakdown of the players in the Hall of Fame, the offense to defense ratio is almost identical to what I’ve selected.

As with the first post, these are just my opinions. If you want to take issue with them, go ahead. I’m done with classes until January, and I have nothing better to do with my time than argue about football.

Defensive Line

I’m focusing mostly on interior defensive linemen in this category because I want to group all the pass rushers together in the next, rather than having to consider players like John Abraham and Terrelle Suggs separately. Many of these players have bounced between 3-4 defensive end and 4-3 defensive tackle, and some have played essentially every position along the line. These players don’t often put up huge sack totals, and there’s no great stat to measure how they play. Like offensive linemen, the best way to evaluate these players’ candidacies is to look at their appearances on All Pro teams.

Locks: Kevin Williams

Haloti Ngata

For years Ngata was known as the best player the average fan hadn’t heard of. Overshadowed by teammates like Ray Lewis and Ed Reed, he flashed often enough that every commentator had their own version of the “most underrated player in the NFL” speech. After a couple years of this, Ngata’s performance fell off faster than his reputation, and he went from one of the league’s most underrated players to one of its most overrated. All Pro voters are usually smart enough not to get caught up in these narratives, and they selected him to the second team three times and the first team twice. His candidacy is still very tricky, and I think he’ll end up on the outside looking in after he retires sometime in the next couple years.

Justin Smith

Smith started his career as a defensive end in the 4-3, but he never really took off until he arrived in San Francisco and took up his current role in the 3-4. His time in Cincinnati was widely considered a disappointment, as he failed to ever reach ten sacks after being selected fourth overall in 2001. He’s never had elite ability as a pass rusher, but he is a master of what he is asked to do in San Francisco. He swallows blockers and stuffs the run, leaving Aldon Smith free to rush around the edge and collect all the glory. We saw how valuable he was in 2012 when a triceps injury cost him the final two games of the year, two games in which Aldon Smith did not record a single sack. If I had a vote I would give it to him, but I think the actual voters will hold his low sack totals against him.

JJ Watt

I’ve listed 43 players between my two Hall of Fame posts. Of those 43, all but one entered the league prior to 2008. That one exception is Watt, who came into the league in 2011. The fewest seasons played by a Hall of Famer is six by Gale Sayers. Is it somehow possible that Watt has been dominant enough in his first four to be enshrined in Canton? The fact that this isn’t a ridiculous question says enough, even though I think the answer is likely no. Fortunately, we don’t nee to answer this question now. Watt has a long career still ahead of him, a career that will almost certainly end with him marching into Canton on the first ballot. But it would be interesting to see how the voters would handle it if he retired after one of the most dominant four year stretches from any player at any position in NFL history.

Pass Rushers

 

Elite pass rushers are incredibly valuable in the modern NFL, but they still seem strangely undervalued in the Hall of Fame. Eleven of the top twenty in career sacks among eligible Hall of Famers have not yet made it, and with a lot of players with high sack totals coming through the system it is possible we could end up with a backlog similar to the one we see at wide receiver. I think the voters will be more open about putting the current superstars into the Hall of Fame, but a high sack total is not an automatic by any means.

Locks: Julius Peppers, Jared Allen, DeMarcus Ware, Dwight Freeney

John Abraham

If asked who the active leader in career sacks is, most people would probably come up with six or seven names before Abraham. Nobody seems to realize that he is in the top ten all time in career sacks. These numbers have come over the course of his career, rather than being piled up in individual seasons like Ware and Allen. Only once did he manage more than thirteen sacks in a season. The career numbers are there, but his lack of dominance will probably keep him out of the Hall of Fame. In a lot of ways he is similar to Kevin Greene, absent from the Hall of Fame despite being third all time in career sacks. Pass rushers are prized more for their peaks than their sustainability.

Terrelle Suggs

Suggs has a reputation that far exceeds his actual abilities. Many put him in the same category as the four locks above, even though he is more than ten sacks behind Freeney, twenty behind Peppers and Ware, and a full thirty behind Allen. Suggs has reached double digit sacks only five times in eleven seasons and has a single season high of fourteen, the year he won Defensive Player of the Year thanks to three good games that all happened to be during prime time. People remember him as part of the Ravens 2013 Super Bowl run, even though he was hobbled by an Achilles injury that entire year. In short, he will probably make it into the Hall of Fame even though he shouldn’t even make it past the first round of voting.

Robert Mathis

Another stat most people don’t realize: despite entering the league one season after longtime teammate Dwight Freeney, Mathis actually has more career sacks. That probably won’t still be the case at the end of the season, but the fact remains that the two have had very similar productivity over the course of their careers. Mathis will be punished because he has always been seen as the lesser of the two, and I don’t think last year’s league leading sack numbers will be enough to make people forget that he was always the guy across from Freeney, rather than the other way around.

James Harrison

Harrison is the opposite of Abraham. It took him a long time to finally earn a major role in the league, but once he did he was a dominant force for five years before age caught up with him. With a Defensive Player of the Year award and one of the most iconic plays in NFL history against Arizona in the Super Bowl, these five years might actually be enough to get him into the conversation. But with only 70 career sacks, I don’t think he has the sort of high volume pass rushers need to make it into Canton. His peak was higher than Mathis’s or Abraham’s, but he didn’t last long enough.

Linebackers

We seem to be in a transitional period for NFL defensive players. The 2003 draft produced superstars across the league, but many of these players have already retired. 2007 helped bolster the ranks, but many of the top current defensive players entered the league as part of the 2011 draft. Other than JJ Watt, none of these players has done enough to get into this conversation after only three and a half seasons. So we’re left lacking for Hall of Famers at many of these defensive positions. The future Hall of Famers are in the league, but they haven’t been around long enough to earn the official distinction yet.

Locks: Patrick Willis

Lance Briggs

Briggs always played second fiddle to Brian Urlacher, even though he was likely the better player of the two for much of their time together. When he does retire, he will always be known as the sidekick rather than the superstar. I think his Hall of Fame case is every bit as strong as his former teammate’s. He was the rare 4-3 inside linebacker to receive popular recognition for his abilities (an honor Briggs 2.0—aka Lavonte David—is still waiting on) and he does have three All Pro appearances to his name. But with fewer than twenty sacks, interceptions, and forced fumbles, his résumé will only look worse the further we get from his years of dominance.

Secondary

Another position in a transitional period. Ed Reed, Asante Samuel, and Champ Bailey are gone. Patrick Peterson, Richard Sherman, and Earl Thomas are all too young. We’re left with a couple of superstars who have hung around too long and a bunch of veterans who are generously termed as long shots. Defensive back is an extremely volatile position, and it is difficult to project where a lot of current players will go from here. For these reasons, I have absolutely no idea how many Future Hall of Famers from the secondary are actually in the NFL right now.

Locks: Charles Woodson, Troy Polamalu

Eric Weddle

For about a ten year stretch the safety position in the NFL was dominated by Ed Reed and Troy Polamalu. For about the last half of that period, Weddle was always the third name people mentioned. He’s been a very good player for a long time, even if he was never a great player. But with four All Pro selections, he has an outside shot at getting into a Hall of Fame conversation. He isn’t there yet, but if he can hang on for a few years, bolster some of his career stats, and become involved in a high profile playoff run, he still probably won’t get in.

Charles Tillman

It’s stupid, but the number one way cornerbacks are measured is interceptions. If a cornerback can’t pick the ball off, he isn’t considered among the elite players at his position. Look at Tillman’s college teammate Ike Taylor, a dominant cornerback cursed with the hands of Troy Williamson. Despite tracking the opposing team’s top receiver week after week, Taylor has never been selected to a Pro Bowl because he has only 14 career interceptions. Tillman isn’t as poor off as Taylor. He has 36 career interceptions, and enough forced fumbles to make up for any other shortcomings in this area. But for most of his career he played in a system that asked him to tone down his aggressiveness, and because of this he went a long time before he was recognized as one of the best cornerbacks in the game. He deserves to at least come up in conversations for the Hall of Fame, but I think it is highly unlikely he will ever be considered.

Darrelle Revis

I once heard a Hall of Fame voter say that if a player was ever the best in the league at his position then he should be a Hall of Famer. By this criterion Revis would be in. For about a three year stretch prior to his torn ACL he was indisputably the best cornerback in the league, and one of those seasons he probably should have won Defensive Player of the Year. But is three years long enough to get a player into the Hall of Fame? Probably not, as we will likely see when Nnamdi Asomugha gets snubbed in a couple years. Revis’s candidacy could go either way in the coming years, depending on how he continues to recover from his struggles the past few seasons. As long as he remains a competent cornerback for the next five years he should get in, but he can’t afford to fall off as quickly as Asomugha did.

Future Hall of Famers - Offense

It is common when reading about the NFL to come across the term “Future Hall of Famer.” It seems to be thrown out in every discussion of veteran players, even when it is not particularly relevant to what is being written. But what does it actually mean? Who in the NFL counts as a Future Hall of Famer?

I’ve put together a list of active players who have an argument to fit this description. Because I’m not very good at predicting the future, I am judging these players only one what they have done to this point in their careers. Players like AJ Green and Andrew Luck are on Hall of Fame tracks, but if they retired today they wouldn’t have a chance. Today I’m just looking at offensive players, with defense coming sometime in the next week or two.

For each position I’ve listed several players who are absolute locks. I don’t see much need to discuss them, so I’ve focused my attention on the players who could go either way. If you think I’ve missed anyone, or if you disagree with my opinions, feel free to let me know. There’s nothing I love more than arguing with people on the internet.

Quarterbacks

 

Quarterback is the easiest position to figure out. The last eight quarterbacks to enter the Hall of Fame made it on the first ballot. If a quarterback is considered Hall of Fame worthy, there isn’t much debate about it. But it’s also the most maddening position to debate, because it’s the one where Super Bowl championships mean the most. There is a certain quarterback in the league right now (you know exactly who I’m talking about) whose argument depends entirely on his team’s postseason success. There are also a couple, better quarterbacks whose candidacy could be doomed by a lack of such success.

Locks: Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees

Aaron Rodgers

This is a very tricky case, but it’s also one that really doesn’t need considered. Remember, we’re doing this under the assumption that these players would announce their retirements today, leaving their careers to this point as the only arguments for them. Rodgers has certainly achieved a lot since taking over as the starter in Green Bay, winning a Super Bowl and a league MVP. But he’s only in his seventh year as a starter, and he hasn’t put up the high volume passing numbers most quarterbacks need to get into the Hall of Fame. Of course, Rodgers isn’t going to retire today. He will continue to produce for the next five years at the very least, and he should coast into Canton.

Tony Romo

Romo has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league over the past ten years, even if no one wants to admit it. He’s had his ups and downs—as have all quarterbacks—but no one seems to have their low points magnified more than Romo. He isn’t dominant enough as a player to overcome his reputation as a choker, and with the end of his career approaching he will probably need multiple Super Bowl victories if he hopes to make it into the Hall of Fame.

Ben Roethlisberger

The next three quarterbacks are all from the legendary 2004 draft class, and they all have intriguing Hall of Fame cases. Roethlisberger likely has the smoothest path thanks to his combination of regular season and postseason success. He won two Super Bowls early in his career, and he has a bit of a reputation as someone who road his defense’s coattails to these victories. That isn’t completely unfair, but it sells short his contribution to these teams. He was awful in the Super Bowl victory over the Seahawks, but he was a crucial part of their playoff run up to that point. Against the Cardinals he had a legitimate case for the MVP and likely would have won had Santonio Holmes not been his only healthy receiver by the end of the game. I think he would get in if his career ended today, though he will certainly benefit from playing another couple years and racking up some better career statistics.

Philip Rivers

Rivers’s lack of a championship will set him apart from the other two quarterbacks drafted in 2004, but his success in the regular season far outweighs theirs. He’s had a more up and down career, but his high points were well above anything achieved by Roethlisberger or Eli Manning. He’s unfortunately never had a defense of the same caliber as the ones Manning and Roethlisberger took to the Super Bowl, and he’s suffered from some bad luck in the postseason. If it came down to it, I still think he would get in. But he is going to need the remainder of his career more than the other two, either to win a Super Bowl or to put up stats to blow the competition out of the water.

Eli Manning

The most controversial name on this list, both because of his career and because he plays in New York. Eli Manning is inarguably the worst of the three quarterbacks taken at the top of the 2004 draft. He’s been a turnover machine throughout his career, and aside from 2011 he has never put up any impressive regular season stats. But he beats both of his draft mates when it comes to playoff track record. Like Roethlisberger he has two Super Bowls, but unlike Roethlisberger he was named MVP of both games. He probably didn’t deserve at least one of these awards, but they will certainly play a factor in evaluating his candidacy. I don’t think he should make it, but in all likelihood he will end up beside his brother in the Hall of Fame.

Receivers/Tight Ends

Wide receiver is a mess when it comes to the Hall of Fame. The voters seem firm set against almost every receiver up for consideration. Despite retiring second all time in most major receiving categories, Cris Carter didn’t make it in until his fourth try. Tim Brown and Marvin Harrison are still waiting, and they’ll soon be joined by Randy Moss and Terrell Owens. With the backlog that’s about to form, I’m not sure there is such a thing as a Hall of Fame lock. Fitzgerald and Wayne will both probably make it eventually, but neither is going to sniff a first ballot induction.

Locks: Larry Fitzgerald, Reggie Wayne, Jason Witten, Antonio Gates

Andre Johnson

I absolutely believe that Johnson should be a Hall of Famer. I think he is the best receiver of his generation, ahead of even Wayne and Fitzgerald. Even hampered with mediocre quarterback play throughout his career he has been a dominant force on the outside. He has the statistics to stand up against anyone, except when it comes to touchdowns. It seems difficult to believe for one of the most physical receivers the league has ever seen, but Johnson has never reached double digits for touchdowns in a season. There’s a chance he could end up on the outside looking in because voters penalize him for being on a team that always went run heavy in the red zone.

Steve Smith Sr

Smith has been one of the league’s most underappreciated weapons throughout his career. He slipped to the third round in the draft because he wasn’t considered physically impressive, and that reputation seems to have followed him throughout his career. Never mind how many ridiculous jump balls he wins, how many tackles he breaks, how consistently he dominates with players like Jake Delhomme throwing to him. He’s never been in the conversation as one of the best receivers in the league, even the year when he led the NFL in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns, only the third player since 1970 to do so. I don’t think he will make the Hall of Fame, but with everything he’s accomplished in his career I think he probably should.

Calvin Johnson

Another case of “he’ll make it eventually, but has he earned it yet?” For that I would probably say no, even though the voters might disagree. Johnson’s physical abilities and impressive stats have earned him the reputation as the undisputed best receiver in the league, to the point where we may have gone a bit overboard. Johnson is the best receiver in the league, but it’s closer than most people seem to believe. I don’t think he will ever touch the Jerry Rice level of greatness, or even the Randy Moss-Marvin Harrison-Don Hutson level. But I think he can one day slide in alongside players like Cris Carter, Terrell Owens, and Tim Brown on the third tier of Hall of Fame receivers.

Wes Welker

Welker has reached the point of his career when it is necessary to actually look at his Hall of Fame credentials. I think there’s a decent chance this is his last season, and I would bet good money that he isn’t around for 2016. His legacy is an interesting one, because his individual seasons stand in sharp contrast to his career statistics. For five years he was far and away the best slot receiver in football, good for 100 catches a year. In a lot of ways he revolutionized the position, helping bring a more spread out passing attack to the NFL. His contribution to the game is undeniable, but I think his career stats are weak enough that he doesn’t have much shot of making it to Canton.

Anquan Boldin

I have to admit, I’m surprised to see Boldin on this list. I thought he was washed up as soon as he reached Baltimore, with a candidacy that wouldn’t even brush the Hall of Fame. But the past few seasons have resurrected his career. He is now in the top 25 all time in both receiving yards and receptions, and he is bolstered by a phenomenal performance during Baltimore’s Super Bowl run. He doesn’t have the statistics to make the Hall of Fame right now, but he has the sort of game that can keep him productive for another three or four seasons and maybe give him a fighting shot by the time he actually retires.

Running Back

 

Running back is a wasteland in the modern NFL. The feature back is a thing of the past, with most teams scrapping together units out of interchangeable late round draft picks. Careers flash bright and die quickly, and it isn’t surprising to see only one current running back who has earned a place in Canton. There are a few others who deserve consideration, but I would be surprised if any make it.

Locks: Adrian Peterson

Frank Gore

Gore is one of three active running backs with over 10,000 career rushing yards. Only once since his rookie season has he failed to reach 1000 yards, though he has also exceeded 1300 only one time. He is reliable, if unspectacular, and his only hope of making the Hall of Fame is if he can put up heavy career numbers. He doesn’t have those yet, and with the track he’s on it’s hard to imagine he every will. 12,000 yards seems to be the necessary number for a running back to make the Hall of Fame. Right now he is 1600 yards short, a massive hill for a running back of his age to climb.

Steven Jackson

Jackson might be one of the most underappreciated players in NFL history. He toiled for years in the mediocrity of St Louis, piling up great season after great season without anyone seeming to notice. His only postseason appearance was during his rookie year when he was still second fiddle to Marshall Faulk. When he finally managed to free himself from the Rams he headed to perennial playoff contender Atlanta, only for them to fall into mediocrity. If you asked the average fan who the active leader in career rushing yards was, very few would come up with Jackson. But he is over 11,000 career rushing yards, in the top twenty all time. That’s only enough to put him in the category of Warrick Dunn, Corey Dillon, and Fred Taylor, not Hall of Fame caliber by any standards. He’s not a Hall of Famer, but he still deserves recognition as the third best running back of the past ten years, behind only Peterson and LaDainian Tomlinson.

Marshawn Lynch

Lynch came into the league the same year as Peterson, and over the past five years the two of them stand relatively alone in terms of consistent dominance. Lynch didn’t blossom until leaving Buffalo and coming to Seattle, and the first couple years have left him far behind Peterson in terms of career statistics. He does have a couple things the other running backs on this list do not: an iconic run and a Super Bowl ring. That won’t be enough to get him into the Hall of Fame if he retired today, and I doubt he’ll make it unless he plays another five strong seasons. I think it is more than likely that Peterson will be the only running back from his generation to end up in the Hall of Fame.

Offensive Line

We are at a strange point with the linemen in the league. So many great linemen have retired within the past seven years—Walter Jones, Orlando Pace, Jonathan Ogden, Alan Faneca, Steve Hutchinson—and we’re left with a bit of a generation gap. Most of the best offensive linemen in the league right now are relatively young. Thomas is actually older than most, even though this is only his eighth season. There are probably a lot of linemen in the league who will someday make it to Canton, but right now there are very few who have earned it already.

Locks: Joe Thomas, Logan Mankins

Jason Peters

I’ve never been a big fan of Peters. I think he’s been overrated for most of his career, at best an average left tackle. He’s big, and he’s athletic, but pass rushers get the edge on him far too frequently and easily. I don’t think he belongs anywhere near the Hall of Fame, but of current NFL lineman he’s probably as close as any. He’s been a starting left tackle in the league for a long time, and he has earned a spot on five All Pro teams. With the end of his career approaching I doubt that will be enough for him to make it, but he’ll at least come up in some conversations.

Jahri Evans

Longevity is the question with Evans. At his peak he was the best guard in the league, a crucial piece to a Super Bowl team. But his best lasted only five or six years, not nearly long enough for most offensive linemen. A late career resurgence is still possible, but if he retired today I don’t think his four All Pro appearances would be enough. For offensive linemen, peak value is outweighed heavily by sustained excellence.

The Value of a Pass Rush

The NFL is full of clichés, but there might not be any as tired as “the game is won and lost in the trenches.” The calling card of self proclaimed old school coaches, it is typically used to suggest that a team needs to toughen up, that they need to get back to pounding the ball on offense and blowing back the line on defense. It usually means nothing, but it makes for a good soundbite.

In recent years there has been quite a bit of blowback to this phrase. Some of it has come as people have realized that everyone who says it is full of shit, but mostly it has fallen out of favor as the league has transitioned to a more pass heavy game. The one place it still receives some recognition is on the defensive side of the ball, where the most important players on the field are those who can pressure the quarterback. Seven of the ten highest paid defensive players in the league are defensive lineman or pass rushing outside linebackers. Teams trying to improve defensively usually start up front.

Pass rushing is the most important part of the defense, yet it may still be a bit underrated. Just last night we witnessed a game between two of the most surprising teams in the NFL, the Dolphins and the Bills. These teams have found success this year thanks to their defenses, third and fourth in the league in DVOA respectively. Looking at these units, it’s hard to see anything particularly impressive in the back seven. Brent Grimes is a solid cornerback, but he isn’t an elite player by any means. Buffalo lost their best linebacker Kiko Alonso to a torn ACL and their best defensive back Jairus Byrd to free agency, yet their defense is playing at the same level it did last year.

The best players on these teams are along their defensive front. This isn’t news to anyone. In Miami Cameron Wake had a slightly disappointing 2013 season, but he’s been one of the best pass rushers in the league ever since coming down from the CFL. He’s only been helped by the presence of developing star Olivier Vernon, whose performance has eased the pain of the struggles of top five selection Dion Jordan.

Buffalo is even deeper across the front. Mario Williams is overrated and overpaid, but he is still an above average pass rusher. Jerry Hughes has resurrected his career after flaming out in Indianapolis, and Kyle Williams is the same superstar he’s been for the past five years. But the player who has really put them over the top is Marcell Dareus. Dareus is a cautionary example not to form judgments on players too early in their careers. After his second year there were some calling him a bust, and even a strong third season did little to quiet the doubters. This year has shut them all up, as he has played at a level up there with any defensive tackle in the league. Suddenly he is no longer the bust drafted between Von Miller and AJ Green. If he keeps playing at this level, his name will belong right beside the other superstars of the 2011 draft.

We knew that Buffalo and Miami would have dominant defensive lines coming into the season, but we didn’t expect much from the other parts of their defense. And while players like Corey Graham and Jelani Jenkins have had surprisingly strong seasons, for the most part we were right in dismissing these units. Where we went wrong was in underestimating the value of a defensive line. Just as a great quarterback can cover flaws on the offensive side of the ball, a strong pass rush can turn a mediocre defense into a dominant one.

Miami and Buffalo aren’t the only examples of this we are seeing this year. Two more of the NFL’s biggest surprises, Detroit and Kansas City, can be looked at in the same way. The Lions are the exact opposite of the team we expected coming into this season. Their offense has struggled, but behind the top ranked defense in the league they have pushed their way to a 7-2 record and the lead in the NFC North. DeAndre Levy is great, but beyond that there isn’t much to love about their back seven. Like Buffalo and Miami, their strength is in their front four.

Ndamukong Suh has swallowed planets since he entered the league, and he has been every bit as dominant this year as in the past. Nick Fairley has returned to his 2012 form after disappointing last season, but the real difference has come with the emergence of Ziggy Ansah. The fifth overall selection last year, Ansah entered the league as raw as they come. His game still has a lot of room for refinement, but his raw skills are enough to turn him into a dangerous pass rushing force. With a secondary filled with players like James Ihedigbo and Rashean Mathis, it’s fair to say that the only reason for Detroit’s defensive success is their ability to stuff the run and get after the passer.

No team makes a better example for the value of a pass rush than Kansas City. A playoff team last year, most expected them to regress and miss the postseason this time around. Most of the reason for this was how they finished down the stretch last year, winning only two of their final seven games as their defense plummeted from its early season dominance. Most people saw this fall as natural regression after a cakewalk schedule through the first nine weeks. This certainly played a part, but their performance this year suggests that a much bigger factor was the injury that limited the effectiveness of star pass rusher Justin Houston.

Houston was part of a talented group of stars that pushed Kansas City to a 9-0 run to start 2013. Along with Tamba Hali, Derrick Johnson, Dontari Poe, and Eric Berry he represented the defense that many at the beginning of the season thought was the best in the league. Down the stretch this defense fell apart, finishing only ninth in defensive DVOA. Every one of their stars stopped playing in the dominant manner they were at the beginning of the season. It appears now that, at least in the case of Houston, this was simply the result of injury. A healthy Houston has been a monster this year, leading the league with 12 sacks. The rest of Kansas City’s defense is not what they appeared to be early last season, but Houston’s dominance as a pass rusher is keeping them afloat and keeping the team in the playoff hunt.

We see a similar trend on the other end of the spectrum. Several of the most disappointing teams in the league have faltered because of a diminished pass rush. The entire NFC South would fit into this category. Tampa Bay threw a huge sum of money at free agent Michael Johnson, who has produced a total of two sacks. The defense that was supposed to be the strength of their team is sitting 28^th in the league. Carolina’s defense has plummeted from third in DVOA last year to 29^th this year thanks to the suspension of Greg Hardy and the ineffectiveness of Charles Johnson. Neither New Orleans nor Atlanta expected to have dominant pass rushes, but they both thought they would be better than the dreadful performances they have put together so far. The struggles across the defensive line are the number one reason every team in this division has a losing record.

That brings me to the final team I want to talk about: the Seattle Seahawks. It’s difficult to call a 6-3 team a disappointment, but for a team that came into the season at the top of the league in nearly everyone’s mind, they have certainly had their share of struggles this year. It doesn’t have anything to do with their offense. They’re one of the best rushing teams in the league, and Russell Wilson is only playing slightly below the level he established last year. On defense they are third in DVOA against the run, but they are only fourteenth against the pass.

 

While still above average, this is a sharp drop for a team that has built their reputation around the ability to stop teams from throwing the ball. The secondary that has garnered so much attention is intact and (mostly) healthy, but they haven’t shut down opposing quarterbacks anywhere close to the way they did last season. By now you know where I’m going with this, so I’ll just get right to it. Seattle’s defense is struggling because their pass rush has disappeared.

The key to Seattle’s defensive front last season was depth. They ran through seven or eight linemen on a regular basis, letting talented pass rushers like Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett come off the bench. But during this offseason they had to part ways with Chris Clemons and Red Bryant, forcing these depth players into starting roles. They are still both fantastic players, but their impacts have lessened as they’ve been forced to remain on the field play after play. Last season Seattle had seven lineman who logged more than 40 percent of the snaps on defense. This year they have four. That has been the biggest piece of their fall from seventh in the league in adjusted sack rate to 28^th, and it remains the biggest issue they need to fix if they hope to return to last year’s dominant defensive form.

The ability to rush the passer is one of the most valued skills in the NFL, but it is also somehow underrated. The defensive line shapes the defense in ways other units simply can't, and a strong pass rush can carry a defense to the top of the league simply on its own. It is common when evaluating NFL teams to judge their offense through the lens of their quarterback, while the defense is evaluated more as a cohesive unit. As the league continues to adapt rules to make life easier for quarterbacks and receivers, we may approach the point where a pass rush is every bit as essential to a defense as a quarterback is to an offense.