AFC West Preview

Last year the AFC West was the only division to produce three playoff teams, sending Denver to the Super Bowl while Kansas City and San Diego bowed out in the Wild Card and Divisional Rounds respectively. I don't want to spoil the rest of this post, but I think it is highly unlikely that they find the same success this year. The top of the division is still excellent, but there are plenty of questionmarks from the teams below.

Denver Broncos

Reason to be excited: Reloaded Defense

Here is a staggering fact: of the current eleven starters on Denver’s defense, only four of them played in the Super Bowl against Seattle. You know, the last game Denver played. They have made across the board improvements to their defense through free agent signings and players returning from injury. Derek Wolfe is back to replace Malik Jackson. DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller will be their edge rushers, replacing Shaun Phillips and Wesley Woodyard. Their secondary is new at every position, with Rahim Moore and Chris Harris returning from injury and TJ Ward and Aqib Talib brought in as high profile free agents. Denver made the Super Bowl last year with a banged up and below average defense. Even if their offense doesn’t perform at the same absurd level this season, their defense is good enough to carry them deep into the playoffs on its own.

Reason to be nervous: The Ticking Clock

I shouldn’t need to say this, but winning a Super Bowl is very, very hard. It requires both talent and good fortune, and oftentimes even a single bad break can ruin a season. When this happens the only thing a team can do is shrug their shoulders and move on to the next season. Denver doesn’t have this luxury. They have built their team around an aging core, throwing everything onto the table for the next season or two. This year can only be considered a success with a Super Bowl victory, because if they come up short again they may not get another chance.

Impact Rookie: Cody Latimer

If a player is an eligible receiver on the field, Peyton Manning is going to throw to him. Last year the Broncos had five players with sixty receptions and four players with double digit receiving touchdowns. They lost Eric Decker and Knowshon Moreno to free agency, and with Wes Welker’s concussion issues it appears highly likely that Latimer will see plenty of playing time as their third or their fourth wide receiver. Latimer was one of the second tier receiver prospects in last year’s draft, a name many thought might sneak into the first round due to his size and speed. Instead he fell far enough that the Broncos were able to move up and grab him late in the second round. In this offense he should have no trouble putting up excellent stats, perhaps even enough to get him into the conversation for rookie of the year.

Player to Watch: Ryan Clady

Denver had the best offense in NFL history last year, and they did it with their second best player on that side of the ball missing the entire season. Clady has been an All Pro caliber player since he entered the league, excelling at swallowing pass rushers coming at the quarterback’s blind side. Manning is a master of making the best out of his offensive line, and he posted the lowest sack rate in the league last season even with a backup at left tackle. Bringing Clady back will give him more time to work with, allowing him to pick apart holes in defenses that he couldn’t exploit last year. I don't want to dismiss the dominance of Seattle’s performance in the Super Bowl, but I think there’s a chance that game would have gone differently had Clady been available.

Prediction:

The Broncos are the best team in the AFC, and it would be a major disappointment if they fail to reach the Super Bowl. Winning the division should be no trouble at all, and the only way I see them not earning home field advantage is if Indianapolis takes major advantage of its cupcake schedule. Denver’s offense won’t perform at the same high level it did last season, but it will still likely be the best in the league, and with an improved defense they are the easy favorites to win the Super Bowl. But if they fall short of a championship again, the entire season was for nothing, as are the ensuing three seasons. This team has no long term future, and if they can’t win at least one Super Bowl with Manning around, they have thrown away the next few years for nothing.

San Diego Chargers

Reason to be excited: Receiving Corps

Philip Rivers had a remarkable resurgence last year, and he could be just as good this year thanks to the weapons he has on the outside. Keenan Allen was the best offensive rookie in the league last year, and I expect him to be even better this year, perhaps even a Pro Bowl candidate. They will be getting back Malcom Floyd (no, not Malcolm Floyd. That’s his older brother) after his season ending neck injury. Eddie Royal is one of the best third receivers in the NFL, and even though I’m not as high on Ladarius Green as everyone else, I think he is a solid fourth or fifth option in the receiving game. The Chargers had one of the more prolific offenses in the league last year, and their weapons will only be more dangerous this season.

Reason to be nervous: Gravity

Last season everything that could have gone right for the Chargers did go right, and they barely snuck into the playoffs. Their offensive line held together surprisingly well, Rivers had the best season of his career, and Ryan Mathews stayed healthy and productive through the end of the season. Some of these factors may repeat this season, but it is highly unlikely that all of them will. Parts of their team will fall back to earth, and they haven’t made the needed additions to compensate for this regression. Their defense is still terrible, and their offensive line is still patched together from a bunch of aging veterans and inexperienced youngsters. I don’t see any way this team can be better than it was last year, and a step backwards seems highly likely.

Impact Rookie: Jerry Attaochu

San Diego has been desperately searching for a pass rusher since the collapse of Shawne Merriman. They’ve spent first round picks on Larry English and Melvin Ingram, who have combined for thirteen sacks over seven seasons. They’ve brought in free agents Dwight Freeney and Jarret Johnson, who have struggled to stay on the field. At this point they will try anyone and anything to find a pass rush, and in their desperation they will likely turn to their second round pick Attaochu. I don’t know if he will be the answer they are searching for, but he will get every opportunity to show off whatever pass rushing abilities he possesses.

Player to Watch: Brandon Flowers

San Diego didn’t do much to improve their defense this offseason, but the one place they did add talent is at cornerback. They used their first round pick on Jason Verrett, and they signed Kansas City cast off Flowers as a free agent. Flowers has had a strange year, making his first career Pro Bowl despite having the worst season of his career. He was then released by the Chiefs for salary cap reasons and ended up signing with one of their division rivals. Flowers struggled last year when placed in Kansas City’s press man system, where his short stature proved problematic when he was asked to be physical with receivers. With the Chargers he will play in a system better suited to his talents, and he should be able to get back to the player he was two years ago. It won’t be enough to save this mess of a defense, but any help has to be appreciated in San Diego.

Prediction:

San Diego barely made the playoffs last year, and, as I addressed above, I don’t think they will be any better this year. But I still think they’ll be in contention for one of the Wild Card spots, primarily because the middle of the AFC is so atrocious. The Chargers are taking a step back, but so are most of the teams they are competing against. The only thing that could hold San Diego back is their schedule, a brutal lineup against the AFC East and the NFC West in addition to a pair of games against Denver. If they do make they playoffs they might have a chance to push for a deep run, but I think this is a team that needs a couple more years to rebuild their defense before they’re ready to play at a championship level.

Kansas City Chiefs

Reason to be excited: Jamaal Charles

I’m going to be honest here. I can think of very little for this team to be excited about, so I’m just tossing out the one player who is always exciting. Charles has been one of the best running backs in the league for several years, but last season he finally got the chance to show himself off as a full time feature back. He was the entire offense of a team that won eleven games last season, operating as their most dangerous receiving threat in addition to being their best runner. I expect him to struggle some this year, going up against defenses designed solely to stop him and behind one of the weakest offensive lines in the league. But he is still a playmaker like very few others in the league, and if this offense finds any success it will be because of him.

Reason to be nervous: Defensive Questions

Many people seem to have forgotten how Kansas City’s season went last year, so I think we need to do a quick refresher. They won their first nine games thanks to a dominant defense and an easy schedule, holding the opposition to 12 points per game. That’s the team that most people seem to be remembering heading into the season, not the team that won only two of their final eight while allowing 29 points per game. Some of their issues can be blamed on injuries, but the simple fact is that this defense was not very good by the time the season came to an end. They still have a lot of talent, and I expect them to bounce back somewhat. But they will not be the dominant force that carried the team through the first half of last season, and it is unlikely that they will be able to make the playoffs unless their offense steps up.

Impact Rookie: Zach Fulton

Kansas City will not get much of their first round pick Dee Ford until after Tamba Hali leaves this next offseason. He’ll contribute as a situational pass rusher, maybe collecting a few sacks along the way. They will get much more out of their sixth round pick Fulton, already slotted in as their starting right guard. This isn’t as much an endorsement of Fulton’s skills as an act of necessity, after losing their three best players from an already shaky offensive line during the offseason. The unit as a whole will be a mess this season, and I don’t expect Fulton will help this out. But he’ll at least see significant playing time, which is more than can be said about any of their other rookies.

Player to Watch: Dontari Poe

Poe started out last season as one of the most dynamic players in the league. He accumulated 3.5 sacks in his first two games, almost unheard of from a nose tackle. He was a major part of Kansas City’s early season success, and it looked like he was developing into one of the best defensive players in the NFL. But he cooled off quickly, managing only one sack in the final fourteen games as Kansas City’s defense slowly fell to pieces. He doesn’t have the injury excuse of Justin Houston, and double teams can only limit production so much. He is still a good player with lots of potential, but right now the Chiefs need him to be the player he was at the beginning of last season, the player who might have been just a flash in the pan.

Prediction:

Kansas City was a playoff team last year, but even in the weak AFC I don’t see that happening again. Their schedule this year is significantly harder, and their defense is no longer the suffocating force it was at the beginning of 2013. They will need their offense to step up if they want to make any sort of playoff run, and I don’t see that happening. For as long as Alex Smith remains at quarterback their offense will be too vanilla to win them more than a game here or there, and by the end of the season they will realize the folly of giving him a long term deal. They will likely end up with a top ten draft pick, and they will give serious consideration to drafting one of next year’s top quarterbacks.

Oakland Raiders

Reason to be excited: Khalil Mack

Oakland’s recent history with first round picks is borderline criminal. Of their past ten first round picks only three are currently on their roster. 2008 first round selection Darren McFadden resigned for essentially nothing after no one else in the league wanted him. Last year’s first round pick DJ Hayden struggled through injuries his rookie year and was just placed on the PUP list, meaning he’ll miss at least the first six weeks this year. And that leaves them with the only reason to be excited about this team: their first round pick from this year. I love Mack’s skill and talent, and I have no reason not to believe that he will be a future superstar. No reason except that he was drafted by the Raiders, which seems to be a fatal affliction for NFL careers. Hopefully he turns into a player for them to build around, rather than another name added to the list of Rolando McClain, Darrius Heyward-Bey, JaMarcus Russell, Michael Huff, Fabian Washington, and Robert Gallery.

Reason to be nervous: Everything Else

This is the worst roster in the NFL. It’s been that way for several years, and it will stay that way for the foreseeable future. Until this past offseason I could at least understand what they were doing. Al Davis had left them with so many bloated contracts that they needed several years to excise the wretchedness of their aging, overpaid veterans. But this offseason they had the most salary cap space in the league, a chance to make immediate improvements to their team. Instead they allowed their best two players to depart and established themselves as the one place no free agent wants to sign with the Rodger Saffold debacle. This team needs to immediately clean house, but instead they have decided to sign a bunch of worthless veterans that no one else wants anymore, the Charles Woodsons and Justin Tucks of the world. This team hasn’t made a good decision in ten years, and I wouldn’t be shocked if we are saying the same thing a decade from now.

Impact Rookie: Derek Carr

The actual answer is Mack, but I already covered him above. So I’ll go with Carr, the rookie quarterback who will see the field as the starter at some point this season. I don’t expect him to have a lot of success right away—partially due to the adjustment to NFL speed, partially due to the utter lack of talent around him—and I wouldn’t be surprised to see third stringer Matt McGloin start a few games this year also. But I think the majority of the time will belong to Carr, for better or for worse, to show whether they made a poor choice picking him in the second round. In 2010 Carolina used a second round pick on Jimmy Clausen before casting him aside and taking Cam Newton with the first overall selection in 2011. Carr isn’t as bad as Clausen, but I could see the Raiders following a similar track if he struggles.

Player to Watch: Marcel Reece

On a more notable team, Reece would be a folk hero. He is quite possibly the most versatile offensive player in the league, a former college wide receiver who converted to fullback when brought up to the NFL. He can catch passes out of the backfield, and he can throw blocks in the running game. He is also a fairly good ball carrier himself, as evidenced by his career 4.8 yards per carry average. If you have to watch a Raiders game (which I wouldn’t recommend) you could at least try to enjoy one of the more entertaining players in the league. And yes, it is very, very sad that Oakland’s most exciting player is their fullback.

Prediction:

The Raiders are a bad team, and they are going to be a bad team for a while longer. There is no reason to be hopeful for this season, and there is no reason to be hopeful for the long term future. The best case scenario is that Derek Carr takes the starting role and plays well, the defense manages competence with its patchwork quilt of veterans, and the team still manages to win only five games against the toughest schedule in the NFL. I haven’t been able to find anywhere to bet on which team will wind up with the first selection in the draft, but I would put serious money on the Raiders getting that slot. Even then, I’m sure they will screw up whatever draft pick they get. With the way this team has been managed over the past decade, I see no reason to expect them to turn things around anytime soon.

NFC West Preview

We're into the second half of my NFL preview, today taking on the best division in football. Last season the NFC West was responsible for both participants in the NFC Championship Game, and the third place team Arizona managed to win ten games before falling short of the playoffs. Last year these teams combined to go 30-10 in games against teams from other divisions, and they should be nearly as dominant this season.

Seattle Seahawks

Reason to be excited: Legion of Boom

This one is easy. Seattle has a historically great secondary, and the team will have a chance for as long as they can shut down opposing passing games. Richard Sherman has seen to it that he receives all the attention, but he probably isn’t even the best player in the secondary. That would be Earl Thomas, the safety that mans the deep middle of the field allowing the cornerbacks to cover as little ground as necessary as they cling to the sidelines. Their other safety, Kam Chancellor, isn’t as good a player as Sherman and Thomas, but he has a well earned reputation as the most physical safety in the NFL. The one question is at the other cornerback position, where they lost both Brandon Browner and Walter Thurmond to free agency. But the Seattle coaching staff has shown consistent ability to churn out high quality cornerbacks, and Byron Maxwell was starting at a high level by the end of last season. As long as this unit is together, Seattle will have one of the best pass defenses in football.

Reason to be nervous: Running Game

Seattle’s offense is built around its rushing attack. Seattle was one of only two teams in the league last year to run the ball more often than they passed it (the other being San Francisco) and they used play action on a higher percentage of plays than any other team in the league. Their offensive line is below average, but they found success with this style thanks to Marshawn Lynch, who led the league with 59 broken tackles. But Lynch slowed down as the season went on, not breaking one hundred yards in any of his last six regular season games. He rebounded with a strong postseason, but there have to be concerns about a running back in his late twenties who has taken as much of a pounding as Lynch has.

Impact Rookie: Justin Britt

Seattle’s offensive line is not very good, and it hasn’t taken long for Britt to slide into the starting role at right tackle. A second round pick out of Missouri, Britt is ideally suited to play this position in the NFL, and he should have only minor growing pains as he adjusts to the professional level. If he can develop into an average player, Seattle has a chance to turn around the weakest part of their roster from last year. It isn’t ideal to be so dependent on a second round pick, but Seattle can’t continue to play with fire behind such a questionable line. Sooner or later it will hurt their offense, unless Britt can step up and give them a quality player opposite Russell Okung.

Player to Watch: Bruce Irvin

Outside linebacker is probably the least glamorous position on Seattle’s defense, but it also might be the most crucial to its success. The cornerbacks get all the attention, but in their Cover 3 scheme they really don’t have much responsibility. They have to guard against fades and deep outs, and anything underneath is not their concern. The responsibility for covering the flats falls to the outside linebackers, who have to cover an incredible amount of ground in pass coverage. This is the vulnerability of their defense, and smart teams will attack them in the flats this season. The success of their defense depends on how their linebackers hold up. Irvin is one of these linebackers, a first round pick back in 2012 who was chosen more for his pass rushing abilities. He may get to do more of that with Chris Clemons out of the picture, but his primary asset is his athleticism in pass coverage. He is one of the few linebackers in the league with the speed to cover the ground required by Seattle’s defense, and he is the piece that allows their cornerbacks to play as they do.

Prediction:

Seattle will take a small step back this year. Teams will start to figure out how to attack them, and they will be forced to make adjustments on the fly. They are still an incredibly talented team and should have no trouble coasting to the playoffs, but they might falter in a game or two, perhaps costing themselves their precious home field advantage when it comes time for the playoffs. They are still one of the best teams in the league, but the fight to get out of the NFC is going to be even more brutal this year than it was in 2013. Winning a Super Bowl is hard, and repeating is even harder. After a long playoff run last year, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Seahawks bow out in the first round.

San Francisco 49ers

 

Reason to be excited: Receiver Depth

San Francisco has been a run heavy team over the past few years, largely by necessity. The wide received position has been barren for them since Jim Harbaugh arrived, but this season they finally have the pieces they need for a dangerous passing attack. Vernon Davis has never put up great receiving numbers, but he is still a dangerous and versatile threat at the tight end position. Michael Crabtree is back to full strength, and his rapport with Kaepernick will finally let him emerge as one of the league’s elite receivers. And for the first time they have genuine depth on the outside, with Anquan Boldin and Stevie Johnson bringing veteran skills to their offense. They will be able to expand their offense into a dangerous passing attack, provided Kaepernick can take advantage of the promise he has shown so far in his career.

Reason to be nervous: Kaepernick’s Burden

San Francisco’s success over the past few years has come thanks to a strong running game and a dominant defense. The quarterback hasn’t played a major role in their success (as evidenced by the seamless transition between Alex Smith and Kaepernick in 2012), but they will need more from the position this year. Frank Gore has been slowing down for a while, and their offensive line is facing questions at center and right guard. On defense Justin Smith is no longer the dominant player he was a couple years ago, and they will be missing Navarro Bowman and Aldon Smith for the early part of the season. They still have the talent to go deep into the playoffs, but they are going to need Kaepernick to live up to the promise he has showed in his early career.

Impact Rookie: Chris Borland

We still don’t know how long Bowman will be gone, and until he returns the 49ers will be relying on a rookie out of Wisconsin at inside linebacker. Fortunately for Borland, he couldn’t be stepping into a better situation. San Francisco’s depth up front means he likely won’t have to play in passing situations, preventing his struggles in coverage from being exposed. It also won’t hurt that he’ll be stepping in beside Patrick Willis, the best inside linebacker in the game and one of the best of all time. Borland won’t be able to match Bowman’s productivity, but he should be more than serviceable until Bowman is fully healthy.

Player to Watch: Stevie Johnson

I have my questions about Kaepernick, but I still think he is the best quarterback Johnson has ever played with. Johnson has a reputation as a receiver who has never been as productive as he should be, given his athletic talents and his ability as a route runner. In Buffalo he was hamstrung by being the only target on an offense without a reliable distributor. In San Francisco he is likely the number four option in the passing game, an interesting tool in one of the most creative offensive schemes in the league. San Francisco hasn’t used a lot of three receiver sets over the past few years, but I expect we will see more of that now that they have the personnel to do so. If they use Johnson properly, they can have a very dangerous and versatile passing attack.

Prediction:

San Francisco will get off to a rough start this year, but by the end of the season they will be a Super Bowl contender. Until Bowman and Smith return sometime midseason this defense will not be the elite unit we’ve seen over the past few years, and they will need a few weeks to work out the kinks in their offense. Eventually their defense will come together and Jim Harbaugh will figure out how to get the most out of the offense, but their margin for error is incredibly slim if they want to win the division. A couple bad losses early in the year could doom them to a Wild Card spot while Seattle coasts on a more even road to the division title.

Arizona Cardinals

 

Reason to be excited: Offense Coming Together

The Cardinals have been criminally awful on offense since Kurt Warner left, but this year it looks like they finally have a chance to change that. Larry Fitzgerald is still around, but he is no longer the only threat on this side of the ball. 2012 first round pick Michael Floyd came on strong down the stretch last year, and they have a couple more intriguing young receivers on the roster (one of whom I’ll touch on below.) Andre Ellington looked like a dangerous two way player in the limited opportunities he received last year, and even Carson Palmer was playing well by the time the season came to a close. Adding Jared Veldheer will finally give them a competent player on the offensive line, and if last year’s first round pick Jonathan Cooper can come back from his broken leg, they will have a very strong left side of the offensive line. There is a lot to like about this team’s offense, for the first time in years.

Reason to be nervous: Defensive Interior

The Cardinals let starting inside linebacker Karlos Dansby go this offseason after signing him to a one year deal, trusting that last year’s second round pick Kevin Minter could step into his shoes. This was a fine plan, until they learned that their other starting inside linebacker Daryl Washington, one of the better inside linebackers in the game, would miss the entire season due to a drug related suspension. This past week they lost long time nose tackle Darnell Dockett to a torn ACL, meaning they will now have three brand new starters in the middle of their defense. They still have great players in Patrick Peterson and Calais Campbell, but what made their defense truly elite last year was its ability to stuff the run. Without these players, I would expect a significant fall off from one of the best defenses in the league.

Impact Rookie: John Brown

I was tempted to cheat and list Jonathan Cooper, last year’s first round pick who missed the entire season with a broken leg. But I’ve heard nothing but good things about Brown since the start of Cardinals training camp, and I think there is a very good chance he gets to see the field as the team’s third wide receiver this season. He isn’t a particularly big receiver, but he ran a sub 4.4 in the forty, and he has been productive in the chances he’s received during the preseason. With a veteran quarterback under center and a pair of physically imposing targets on the outside, Brown could turn Arizona into the most dangerous passing attack in the division.

Player to Watch: Jonathan Cooper

Since I won’t talk about him as a rookie to watch, I’ll discuss Cooper here. Cooper was the most highly touted guard to enter the draft in years, going off the board at number seven in 2013. Scouts raved about his athleticism and his ability to swallow defenders in space, but we never got a chance to see that from him last year. He broke his leg in the preseason and missed the entire season, and even a year later there are still concerns about how the injury is affecting him. The track record for offensive linemen who injure their legs is not pretty. Jake Long hasn’t been the same since repeatedly suffering minor injuries in Miami, and 2011 Packers first round selection Derek Sherrod is just now coming back after suffering a similar injury to Coopers. Arizona needs Cooper to perform at the high level they expected when they drafted him, but so far this training camp he has struggled to recover from the injury. Hopefully this is temporary, but if it isn’t it will be a major blow to Arizona’s future.

Prediction:

This is so tough for Arizona. Last year they won ten games and still came up short of the playoffs, and I could see them suffering a similar fate this year. The NFC is just too competitive right now, and the NFC West is too loaded for them to accumulate enough wins to push for the playoffs. I’m not ruling out a playoff push—this team is even better than the one that came within a game of making it last season—but they remain a rung below San Francisco and Seattle. Until one of those teams falls off, Arizona will likely be stuck a win or two away from the postseason.

St Louis Rams

Reason to be excited: Robert Quinn

Quinn was the best defensive player in football last year. Luke Keuchly won Defensive Player of the Year, Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas led one of the best defenses the league has ever seen, and JJ Watt was dominant even on one of the worst teams in the league. But none of them dominated their position quite like Quinn. He put up nineteen sacks last year, and it somehow seems like he should have had even more. He tore apart every offensive lineman he faced, and in Week Eight he almost single handedly beat the Seahawks (Seattle had 135 yards of total offense, and that includes an 80 yard touchdown on a pass that probably should have been intercepted.) Right now he is the best pure pass rusher in the league, and with the talent around him I expect him to make a serious run at the single season sack record.

Reason to be nervous: Failure to develop offensive talent

The Rams have spent a number of high picks on skill position players over the past few years, and right now they have very little to show for it. Tavon Austin didn’t do much his rookie season after being selected eighth overall. Since 2011 they have spent six picks in the first four rounds on wide receivers (plus a second rounder on tight end Lance Kendricks) and they still haven’t seen a receiver gain more than 700 yards since Torry Holt in 2008. They spent a second round pick on Isaiah Pead and a third rounder on Tre Mason, but their main runner will likely be Zac Stacy, who they found in the fifth round. They have had so many opportunities to develop weapons for their quarterbacks to work with, and right now you can only blame the coaching staff for the failures they’ve suffered.

Impact Rookie: Aaron Donald

This is simple. Donald was one of the best players in the draft, and he’s joining one of the best defensive lines in the NFL. The only thing that could stop him from being incredibly productive is a struggle for playing time, but I think he’ll be able to do enough to have an impact even if he only sees the field on half the plays. With Robert Quinn and Chris Long on the outside he will rarely see double teams, and he has enough technique and speed to blow past most of the interior linemen in the NFL.I would be stunned to see him finish with fewer than seven sacks, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he reached double digits.

Player to Watch: Janoris Jenkins

Jenkins may have the easiest job in the league. Nothing helps a cornerback like a great pass rush, and St Louis has one of the best pass rushes the league has seen in decades. But the rest of their defense is fairly mediocre, and they will need someone to step up in the back seven if they want to be an elite unit. A former second round pick who fell because of character concerns, Jenkins is the player most capable of developing into a high quality starter. He has showed flashes through his first two seasons, and if he can fine tune his technique, he is in an excellent position to become one of the most successful cornerbacks in the NFL. With the pass rush he has in front of him, he will only need to be slightly above average to shut down any receiver placed across from him.

Prediction:

Last year the St Louis defensive line stepped up and asserted itself as one of the best in the NFL, and this year I expect their defense as a whole to make a similar, if smaller, leap. But the weakness of their offense and the difficulty of their schedule will hold the team back from any significant improvement. They will struggle to reach eight wins, and I don’t think their prospects have changed much with the loss of Sam Bradford. This was always going to be a mediocre team. They will end up with a draft pick around the middle of the first round, but with all the extra picks they’ve received over the past couple years they should be in position to trade up into the top ten. Bradford has likely played his last game as a Ram, and they will need to invest in a new young quarterback before next season.

NFC East Preview

I'm halfway home on my NFL preview, and today I'm taking on the NFC East. The few of you who have read one of the previous divisions can skip over the italicized text. The rest of you probably can too.

I will break down each of these teams individually. I will start by listing reasons for this team to be excited and then reasons for them to be nervous, looking at the possible upsides and potential downsides of these rosters. I will then identify the rookie from their draft class who I think will make the most immediate impact. This doesn’t mean that I think these rookies will have the best long term careers, just that they will contribute the most this season. I will then identify one player to watch on each team. In some cases this will be a superstar who doesn’t receive the proper attention. In others it will be a player who I think is ready for a breakout season. And some will be players who could be great or could be disasters, players whose performance will play a major role in deciding their team’s season.

After that I will give a general prediction for each of these teams. I won’t try to predict their final records (with the randomness of a 16 game season this can only make me look like an idiot) but I will order the teams based on how I believe they will finish in the division, from first to last as you read. I will also try to address how these teams are set up long term, but my primary focus is on the 2014 season.

Philadelphia Eagles

Reason to be excited: Chip Kelly

I was initially skeptical when Kelly fled to the NFL in the face of sanctions at Oregon, but after last year I have come around on him. His offensive scheme was an immediate and overwhelming success at the professional level, incorporating new ideas that countless coaches have spent the offseason trying to duplicate. Beyond the tactics and schemes, he has shown himself to be a true innovator in the way he runs the team, experimenting with all sorts of intriguing new ideas that you can read about here. I do have some worries about how their offense will handle the lack of a true deep threat, but I’m sure Kelly can find new ways to exploit NFL defenses.

Reason to be nervous: Every other NFL coach

As much faith as I have in Kelly, I have just as much in the rest of the league’s coaching body as a whole. Many of the things Kelly showed them last year were new, and they didn’t really have a chance to install large scale adjustments until after the season. I’m sure the defensive coordinators of the league have found ways to counter their quick passing attack and to take advantage of Nick Foles’s immobility. The loss of DeSean Jackson will only make their job easier. Kelly’s entire offense relies on the principal of forcing the defense to defend the whole field. Without a deep threat to worry about, defenses can drag a safety into the box, essentially adding a man to help them cover space from sideline to sideline. I expect Kelly will find new ways to attack, but it will be more difficult now that defenses are more accustomed to what he’s showing them.

Impact Rookie: Jordan Matthews

Kelly has been very open about his affinity for large, physical wide receivers, and this year he finally found a player to fit that mold for the Eagles. Matthews was one of the more impressive physical specimens in the draft, and he was probably the most productive wide receiver available as well, leaving college with the SEC records for receptions and receiving yards. He may not have as much upside as some of the earlier talents off the board, but he is as ready to contribute as any receiver entering the draft. Placed in an offense surrounded by skilled weapons and with one of the most creative coaches in the game, he will have a strong rookie season, probably second among rookie receivers only to Brandin Cooks.

Player to Watch: Evan Mathis

The skill players on Philadelphia’s offense receive all the attention, but their offensive line is the strength of that unit. Mathis is the best player on that line, and he is among the best guards in the NFL. He isn’t a particularly big player, and he can struggle at times if he is asked to be a downhill force in the running game. Fortunately, Kelly’s scheme rarely asks that of him. It uses him to his strength, putting him in space and letting him use his remarkable athleticism. LeSean McCoy is a runner who needs space to succeed, and no one helps give him that space more than Mathis.

Prediction:

Last season everything that could have gone right for Philadelphia did, and they barely won one of the worst divisions in football. This year they will fall back to Earth somewhat, but they will still be the best team in the NFC East. The depth of their roster has no matches within the division, and their balance in every facet of the game will allow them to compete with any team. They are still a level below the elite teams in the league, and I would be mildly surprised to see them advance deep into the playoffs. But the arrow is definitely pointing up on this team, and a year or two down the road they might be capable of winning a championship.

Dallas Cowboys

Reason to be excited: Offensive Line

After years of trying to patch a unit together with high priced free agents, Jerry Jones finally realized he had to find young talent for his offensive line. It could be argued he went a bit too far, ignoring other holes on the roster by spending three of his last four first round picks on offensive linemen, but it is impossible not to appreciate the results. Based on Football Outsider’s advanced metrics, they were fourth in the league in run blocking and tenth in the league in pass protection. They already have one All Pro player in Tyron Smith, and after receiving plenty of mockery for taking Travis Frederick as high as they did in 2013, he developed into one of the better centers in the NFL. The offensive line has become the strength of this roster, and they will only get better with the addition of first round pick Zack Martin.

Reason to be nervous: Coaching

Does anyone understand why Jason Garrett is still an NFL head coach? He has achieved consistently mediocre results with one of the most talented rosters in the NFL, watching the careers of two future Hall of Famers wither away while their team wasted opportunity after opportunity. He doesn’t seem to have any mind for tactics, and he doesn’t appear capable of recognizing the strengths and weaknesses of his team. Jerry Jones’s mismanagement of the salary cap has caused major issues with this team, but the roster he has put together should have made the playoffs at least once in the past three years. They may still have the most talented roster in the division, but I don’t know if they can pull it out while Garrett is still leading the team.

Impact Rookie: Zack Martin

As I discussed above, Dallas had one of the best offensive lines in the league last year, and they will slide the rookie Martin in at guard between former first round picks Smith and Frederick. Martin is a fairly polished player who should be able to find success immediately, provided he can handle the transition from tackle to guard. An offensive lineman will never win Rookie of the Year, but I think by the end of the year there is a good chance that Martin will deserve to be in that conversation.

Player to Watch: Terrance Williams

The Cowboys have one of the best offenses in the NFL. I’ve already addressed their offensive line, and if they use DeMarco Murray properly they could have an above average running game. The one thing that separates them from the truly elite offenses in the NFL is the lack of a second receiving option. Dez Bryant is fantastic, but right now he is the only weapon on the outside that defenses have to worry about. Williams had a quietly fantastic rookie season, putting up more seven hundred yards receiving and five touchdowns. He is a big receiver with good speed, and if he takes the next step he will add an extra dimension to the already dangerous Dallas offense.

Prediction:

Dallas has the best offense in the division, but it is a tight competition between them and Washington for the worst defense. Their defensive woes (along with the vast disparity between the coaches) will prevent them from keeping up with Philadelphia. It could be close, and I wouldn’t be stunned if they got a few lucky breaks and managed to slip past the Eagles. But I expect the Cowboys are looking at another average season, at which point Garrett will undoubtedly lose his job. This is a team that would probably benefit from starting over, clearing out as many aging veterans as possible and building around the core of Dez Bryant and Tyron Smith.

Washington Redskins

Reason to be excited: Weaponry

I recently had an argument with some friends about whether or not the Redskins have the best set of weapons in the NFC. I still think Chicago is better, but Washington absolutely deserves to be in the conversation. Lost in the shuffle of last year’s disappointing season was how fantastic Pierre Garcon was, stepping up and delivering far and away the best season of his career. Adding DeSean Jackson gives them two elite receivers, with the solid Andre Roberts in the slot and the promising Jordan Reed at tight end. I still believe in Robert Griffin III, and he has the weapons to give them one of the best passing attacks in the game. Their offensive (and team) success will swing on what they can get from the other major weapon on their offense: Alfred Morris.

Reason to be nervous: Shanahan Void

Mike Shanahan deserves plenty of criticism for what happened last season, but it is impossible to ignore his track record when it comes to running backs. From Terrell Davis, to Olandis Gary, to Mike Anderson, to Clinton Portis, and now to Alfred Morris, Shanahan has shown a stunning ability to turn unheralded prospects into superstar runners. Unfortunately for the Redskins, Shanahan is no longer there, and his backs don’t have a great track record when removed from his system. I don’t know whether or not Morris will struggle, but the possibility has to scare every Redskins fan out there. The one hope they can point to is Clinton Portis, a running back who found success even after leaving Shanahan’s system to go to Washington. Even though he wasn’t as good as he was in Denver, he was still a quality back in the new scheme, something the Redskins have to hope they can get from Morris.

Impact Rookie: Spencer Long

The Redskins didn’t have a first round pick this year, and in the second round they traded back before selecting OLB Trent Murphy, who plays the one position on defense where they’re actually set. With their next two picks they took offensive linemen Morgan Moses and Spencer Long. Moses is the more highly touted player, but I expect Long will have a more productive rookie campaign. He has an easier path to a starting role, with Moses blocked at one of the tackle spots by Trent Williams. Soon enough Long will take over at guard for either Shawn Lauvao or Chris Chester.

Player to Watch: David Amerson

The Redskins defense is not very good. They have two good pass rushers in Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan, and that’s about it. The struggles on offense received all the attention last year, but their inability to stop anyone was the bigger issue. Because of their cap situation, they were able to do very little to improve their defense this season, and if they want to be in serious contention they will need some young players to step up. One possibility is Amerson, a second round pick in 2013. Amerson was a highly productive player his sophomore year at NC State, leading the nation with twelve interceptions. He fell in the draft thanks to a disappointing junior year and questions about his athleticism, but he is still a big, physical cornerback with excellent ball skills. If he can step up and perform at an elite level, Washington’s defense might not be among the worst in the league.

Prediction:

Washington will rebound from last year’s miserable performance, but they still aren’t a playoff team. They lack any semblance of talent on defense, and I have questions about parts of their offense as well. Barring a surprising collapse from the Eagles, I don’t see the Redskins putting up much of a fight for the division, and in the loaded NFC they will not snag a Wild Card. The future doesn’t appear particularly bright for them either, as they are stuck with essentially no young talent after losing their last two first round picks as part of the RGIII trade. They’ve done as much as they can to surround their young quarterback with talent, but I think they are looking at three or four more years on the outside before his talents can carry them to the postseason again.

New York Giants

Reason to be excited: Secondary

The Giants aren’t a great defensive team, but they have one of the more intriguing secondaries in the league. Antrel Rolle had a quietly fantastic season at safety last year, and they added a pair of free agent cornerbacks in Walter Thurmond and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. Both of these players could very easily turn into major disappointments, but they could also form a dangerous tandem on the outside, with Prince Amukamara performing as one of the better third cornerbacks in the league. This secondary could be very good, and if they get a strong pass rush from Jason Pierre-Paul, Mathias Kiwanuka, and Damontre Moore, they could have one of the best pass defenses in the NFL.

Reason to be nervous: Offensive Line

New York’s offensive line has been on a steady decline for the past few years. They were never appreciated enough for what they did to help the team to their Super Bowl victories, and it is only since they’ve left that people have begun to realize how essential they were. There was a point where the Giants had one of the best running games in the league, not because Derrick Ward or Ahmad Bradshaw or Brandon Jacobs were great running backs but because the offensive line opened massive holes for them to run through. Many of Eli Manning’s turnover issues can be attributed to the pressure in his face, and he was sacked a career high 39 times last year. Second round pick Weston Richburg will likely be a starter by the end of the year, but I don’t think they can expect him to save their offensive line.

Impact Rookie: Andre Williams

Running back is the easiest position to make the transition from college to the NFL, and Williams is as ready to make that transition as any back out there. He played in a heavy, downhill running attack at Boston College where he put up ridiculous numbers on an offense that didn’t have much besides him. He fell to the fourth round because of questions about his upside, but that shouldn’t stop him from producing right away. Currently he is third on the depth chart, but I don’t think it will take the Giants long to realize that neither Rashad Jennings nor Peyton Hillis will give them the running game they want. Williams might not be able to either, but he’ll at least get the chance.

Player to Watch: Jason Pierre-Paul

Three years ago Pierre-Paul was one of the most promising young players in the league. Two years ago he had a disappointing season, but most people expected him to bounce back. Last year he was even worse as he struggled through injuries, and people are now starting to question his long term future. He will definitely bounce back from his miserable 2013 performance, and the Giants’ season will swing on how far he bounces back. If he is the dominant player he looked like down the stretch in 2012 he could help push them to a surprise playoff berth. If he is merely an average or slightly above average pass rusher, the Giants will need to find other players to step up if they want to make a run this season.

Prediction:

This division is as hard to predict as any in the NFL, and I would not be shocked if the Giants managed to win it. But right now I think they are the worst team in the division. Their offense is far and away the worst in their division, and while their defense may be the best, it isn’t good enough to carry them past the other three quality offenses. The only way they find success is if Eli discovers some of his old magic, stops throwing interceptions, and plays at the level he did in 2011. But that will require an offensive line that can protect him, something I don’t see happening. This team will win enough games to keep hopes up into the second half of the season, but they will come up short of the playoffs, ending up with a draft pick somewhere in the teens. I don’t see a lot of long term upside for this franchise, and I think they are in for several down years going forward.

AFC East Preview

Here's the third part of my NFL preview series, covering the AFC East. As before, if you've read the earlier parts you can skip over the italicized sections. If not, you might want to read them so you have an idea what I'm breaking down.

I will break down each of these teams individually. I will start by listing reasons for this team to be excited and then reasons for them to be nervous, looking at the possible upsides and potential downsides of these rosters. I will then identify the rookie from their draft class who I think will make the most immediate impact. This doesn’t mean that I think these rookies will have the best long term careers, just that they will contribute the most this season. I will then identify one player to watch on each team. In some cases this will be a superstar who doesn’t receive the proper attention. In others it will be a player who I think is ready for a breakout season. And some will be players who could be great or could be disasters, players whose performance will play a major role in deciding their team’s season.

After that I will give a general prediction for each of these teams. I won’t try to predict their final records (with the randomness of a 16 game season this can only make me look like an idiot) but I will order the teams based on how I believe they will finish in the division, from first to last as you read. I will also try to address how these teams are set up long term, but my primary focus is on the 2014 season.

New England Patriots

Reason to be excited: Health

New England suffered enormous injury troubles last season, and it was only through a remarkable coaching job that they managed to earn the second seed and make it to the AFC Championship Game. A lot of focus is going to the return of Rob Gronkowski (and to questions about whether he can remain healthy) but their offense may benefit just as much from the health of Sebastian Vollmer, one of the best right tackles in the league. On the defensive side of the ball they will be getting Jerod Mayo and Vince Wilfork, two established veterans up the middle. It will be interesting to see how they recover from their injuries—Mayo has missed time with new injuries already, and Wilfork was slowing down even before his injury. But it will definitely be an improvement over the late round picks and street free agents they ran out on defense last year.

Reason to be nervous: Offensive Firepower

I’ve expressed my questions about Tom Brady in other articles, but even if he plays at the exact same level he did last season, the Patriots will be in trouble. Their defense is no longer good enough to carry an average offense, and they don’t have a good enough running game to run a truly balanced scheme. If they want to keep up with the Broncos, they need to be able to create explosive plays through the passing game. They need Aaron Dobson and Kenbrell Thompkins to step up, and they need Brady to be the player he was two or three years ago. Most importantly, they need Rob Gronkowski to stay healthy, otherwise they will struggle to keep up with elite offenses.

Impact Rookie: James White

The Patriots won’t get much from their rookies this season. Dominique Easley is still recovering from his torn ACL last year, and Jimmy Garoppolo is a long term project. The one player who might be able to give them some production is White, a running back selected in the fourth round out of Wisconsin. White is undersized, and his speed isn’t anything special. But he was a productive player at Wisconsin, and his intelligence should allow him to contribute in New England fairly quickly. The Patriots are not a team that features a single running back, and White’s versatility will allow him to slide into the rotation with Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley.

Player to Watch: Brandon Browner

It seems strange now, but a couple seasons ago there was a genuine question whether Richard Sherman was a better cornerback than Browner. Since then Browner has fallen from notoriety, as a combination of suspensions and injuries knocked him out of favor in Seattle. New England snatched him up in the hope they could get the player who was so promising three years ago. It will be interesting to see what kind of success Browner finds in New England, especially since we have yet to see one of Seattle’s cornerbacks succeed when taken out of their unique defensive system. If the Patriots are smart (they are) they will find a way to integrate parts of that scheme without neutralizing their other cornerback, Darrelle Revis. Browner will see a lot of passes thrown his way, and if he can hold up, the Patriots might have a secondary capable of slowing down Peyton Manning and the Broncos.

Prediction:

The Patriots will win the division again because they are the Patriots and because this is the AFC East. The weak competition around them may even be enough to push them into a first round bye again, and at that point I wouldn’t rule out a Super Bowl run. But I think this is a team with a definite ceiling, far short of the Broncos and several NFC teams. Bill Belichick will push them right up to that ceiling, but they will need several unproven players to take tremendous leaps if they want to emerge from this season with anything more than a division title.

Miami Dolphins

Reason to be excited: Semi-Competence on the Offensive Line

For most of the teams I’m writing about, the “Reason to be excited” section covers something they do better than most of the other teams in the league. For Miami, I’m going with something they do that isn’t worse than every other team in the league. Their offensive line was stunningly terrible last season, even before they became entangled in the hazing controversy. Ryan Tannehill was sacked 58 times, and they could not run the ball at all. They made it a priority to address the position this offseason, signing free agent Branden Albert to play left tackle and drafting Jawuan James to play on the right side. Mike Pouncey will miss the first few weeks, but once he returns they have the potential to put together a genuinely league average offensive line.

Reason to be nervous: Growth of Ryan Tannehill

There was a point last season where it looked like Tannehill was ready to make the next step, but the final two weeks could not have gone any worse for him. With a chance to make the playoffs the Dolphins scored a total of seven points between two games against the Jets and the Bills. Any progress Tannehill had made during the season was immediately negated by these two wretched performances. Last season he had the excuse of the worst offensive line in the league, and now that the Dolphins have addressed this problem, the pressure is on him to produce. If he can’t do that, Miami will be looking for a new quarterback next season.

Impact Rookie: Jawuan James

James wasn’t projected to go in the first round by most scouts, but the Dolphins decided to take him because they believe he is ready to contribute right away. Unlike most tackles taken in the first round, he spent his final season in college playing on the right side, the position he will slide into in Miami. The differences between the tackle positions are subtle, but they can make a difference for rookies who are forced to make the transition. James should have a better start to his career than the tackles taken ahead of him in the draft, even though he will likely never develop into anything more than a capable starter on the right side.

Player to Watch: Mike Wallace

I’m not the only one predicting a bounce back season for Wallace. He was a disappointment his first season in Miami, after they gave him one of the largest free agent contracts ever given to a wide receiver. It would have been difficult for him to live up to that contract even at his best, and he was far from his best last year. He was another player hurt by the disaster that was Miami’s offensive line. Their inability to protect Tannehill robbed the offense of their deep passing game, an area where Wallace contributes most of his production. With more time in the pocket Tannehill should be able to take advantage of his fantastic arm strength to hit Wallace streaking down the field.

Prediction:

I predicted the Dolphins to make the playoffs last season, and they came up a little short. They will definitely be in the hunt again this year, and I expect them to falter down the stretch again. Tannehill could bounce back from his late season woes and turn into the sort of quarterback who can lead them to the playoffs (not particularly challenging in the weak AFC) but I would count on him being at best an average quarterback. They have the worst defense in the division, and the best collection of skill position talent won’t be able to help them if they don’t have a quality distributor. A playoff run isn’t out of the question, but I think they end up a win or two short.

New York Jets

Reason to be excited: Defensive Line

Sheldon Richardson was the best rookie in the league last season, and he should develop into a Pro Bowl caliber player this season, a dominant foce against both the run and the pass. Muhammad Wilkerson is one of the best defensive players in the NFL, even if no one seems to realize it (I’ll have more to say on him below.) These two can fill any number of roles in either a 3-4 or a 4-3, and they give Rex Ryan incredible leeway to run the most creative defense in the league. They still have questions about their edge pass rushers, but Quinton Coples could still develop into the player they hoped he would be when they spent a first round pick on him.

Reason to be nervous: Run Game

It’s difficult to make the playoffs when you don’t have a good quarterback, but it is possible. The recipe requires a dominant defense and a run game that can provide offense when the passing attack flounders. The Jets have the first, but unlike when they made the AFC Championship Game during Ryan’s first two seasons, they don’t have a running game to support their offense. D’Brickashaw Ferguson and Nick Mangold still have great reputations, but they’ve been average at best the past few years. They haven’t had an above average running back since letting Thomas Jones go, and I doubt bringing in Chris Johnson will help this year. Johnson is a dominant player when he has a line to open wide holes, but when he faces any adversity he struggles to pick up even three yards. If the Jets can put together an above average running game they can make a push towards the playoffs, but I don’t see this happening.

Impact Rookie: Calvin Pryor

Rex Ryan’s very first draft pick was Mark Sanchez. Since then, every first round selection has been on the defensive side of the ball. So it wasn’t a surprise when, even with all the holes on their offense, they decided to take a safety with their first selection. Pryor hasn’t made his way into the starting lineup yet, but I’ll stick with him as the impact rookie mostly because I don’t expect much from anyone else in their class. Pryor will get the opportunity to start at some point this year, and he will likely make a lot of mistakes when he gets the chance. But he will also create a number of explosive plays, flying all over the field to deliver devastating hits and create turnovers.

Player to Watch: Muhammad Wilkerson

As I said above, Wilkerson is one of the best defensive players in the NFL. It could be argued that he is more valuable to his defense than any other player in the league. Everything the Jets do revolves around his versatility, putting him anywhere on the defensive line and trusting him to beat the man in front of him. He can penetrate up the gut, he can hold up against the run, and he can pressure the quarterback around the edge. This is the year when he should finally receive the attention he deserves, though that was what everyone said last year.

Prediction:

The Jets could make a playoff push, but I think they’ll end up on the outside looking in again. They still have too many issues on the offensive side of the ball and in the back end of their defense. They’ll be able to shut down mediocre offenses, but a quality team will be able to put up points by attacking their flawed secondary. Their only hope is if Geno Smith shows himself to be capable of making enough plays to lead the offense, something I highly doubt. I think Smith cuts down on his turnover problems from last year, but I don’t see him suddenly developing into a playmaker of the sort their offense needs. The Jets have a few good pieces on offense, but they don’t have enough to form a unit strong enough to get them into the playoffs.

Buffalo Bills

Reason to be excited: Underrated Defense

Based on DVOA—an advanced metric that measures teams based on success and strength of competition—the Bills ranked fourth in the NFL in defense last year, behind only Seattle, Arizona, and Carolina. That is incredible company, and no one seems to realize how fantastic Buffalo’s defense was last season. They had one of the best pass rushes in the league, with four different players putting up more than seven sacks. Their secondary finally came together thanks to their young talent, and Kiko Alonso looked promising at linebacker before falling off later in the year. The Bills did suffer two major losses on this side of the ball—their best player Jairus Byrd and their coordinator Mike Pettine—but they have enough talent that they could very easily be a top ten defense again this year.

Reason to be nervous: Question of EJ Manuel

Has anyone outside the Bills organization ever considered Manuel to be a top quarterback prospect? Most people agree he was overdrafted when taken sixteenth overall in 2013, and I don’t remember any great expectations going into last season. No one seems to be expecting any sort of breakout from him in his second year, yet no one is talking about him as a bust either. He seems to have skipped past the early stages of a quarterback’s career and moved into Schaub/Cassel territory as a quarterback who will start because his team doesn’t have any other option. Does he have any chance to develop into a star? Or have we already moved past those expectations for 2013’s only first round quarterback?

Impact Rookie: Sammy Watkins

The Bills gave up way more than was reasonable to get Watkins, and if he doesn’t perform this season they will really miss their first round pick next year. Fortunately, they got a player who looks like he will be a contributor right away. He has flashed plenty of ridiculous plays so far through training camp, though he had to leave his last preseason game with an injury. He should be fine by the start of the season, at which point he will become the team’s top receiving threat. He will have his struggles, as most rookie receivers do, but he’ll perform well enough that the team will at least be able to try to justify the lack of a pick next year.

Player to Watch: Kyle Williams

What is it with dominant interior defensive linemen in this division not being recognized? Kyle Williams has been one of the best defensive tackles in the league over the past four seasons, but most people probably think of the overrated Mario when they hear about a Williams in Buffalo. Kyle is far and away the best player on one of the best defensive lines in the league, tying for the league lead in sacks from a defensive tackle last season. He is the heart and soul of one of the league’s best pass rushes, and it’s time for people to recognize how fantastic a football player he is.

Prediction:

I’ve seen some people projecting the Bills to wind up with the first overall selection. That’s not going to happen, but they won’t be in playoff contention either. They have enough solid veterans on both their offensive and their defensive lines to keep the bottom from falling out, but they don’t have the sort of elite, established players who can help them make a playoff push. They will wind up as they have eight of the past nine years, earning a draft pick between number eight and number twelve. The difference is that this year they don’t have their own first round pick, which will prevent them from adding another potentially elite player. I don’t think the future is particularly bright for the Bills, unless EJ Manuel makes an unexpected leap.