Quarterbacks in the Draft

Free agency has begun to wind down, and it is time to shift our attention to the next monumental event of the NFL offseason. While free agency is a solid way to build a team, it rarely offers the opportunity to obtain the most essential piece for a championship roster: the quarterback. Free agent signings like Drew Brees and Peyton Manning are rare exceptions—only about once every ten years does a truly elite quarterback become available in free agency. If a team wants to find a solution at the quarterback position, they have to do so through the draft.

I don’t have access to the game film of college players, but I have watched multiple games and read as much as I can find about almost every quarterback with potential to go in this draft. From my observations I believe that there are six or seven (depending on Jimmy Garoppolo, who I haven’t seen play and will refrain from commenting on) quarterbacks in this class with the potential to be a long term starter in this league.

Below I have ranked each of these six players and gone into detail regarding what I think about them. I have made comparisons between them and current NFL quarterbacks, listing for each a best case scenario, a worst case scenario, and what I believe is the most likely outcome. One source I found incredibly useful  is this article from Darren Page of DetroitLionsDraft.com, who broke down eighteen of the prospects based on their completion percentages towards different sections of the field.

6) AJ McCarron

It is unfair to call McCarron boring, but I’m going to do it anyway. McCarron put together a prestigious college career on one of the most stacked teams of all time, winning a pair of national championships despite doing very little to actively help his team win games. He specialized in safe throws and ball possession, trusting his defense and his running game to win games for him. That said, he is definitely more talented than previous Alabama stalwarts Greg McElroy and John Parker Wilson. He will likely go in the second or the third round to some team that sees a talented player who knew that he didn’t need to do a whole lot to succeed with his team.

Upside: Matt Schaub

Schaub has become a bit of a joke over the past year, but it was only two seasons ago that he threw for over 4000 yards and led his team to the playoffs. While he was never a spectacular option at quarterback, he was capable of maximizing the talent around him in order to help his team win games. He knew how to get the ball to Andre Johnson, and he knew to trust his running backs and tight ends as secondary options. McCarron will never be a consistent Pro Bowl player, but placed in the right situation he can play smart and get the most out of the talent around him.

Downside: Colt McCoy

If anyone attempts to claim McCarron will succeed because he is a ‘winner’, point them to McCoy. McCoy finished an illustrious career at Texas as the all time leader in Division I wins by a starting quarterback (a record since eclipsed for fellow NFL flop Kellen Moore.) He was a much more productive player in college than McCarron, but he fell to the third round due to a lack of physical tools. In Cleveland he received several chances to prove himself as a starter, but he could never produce at a high enough level to lock down a permanent role as anything other than a backup.

Likely Outcome: Matt Flynn

McCarron is more physically gifted than McCoy, and I think he will have slightly more success in this league. I don’t think he will ever be a team’s solution at quarterback, but he will be one of the top backups in the league over the next ten years. Flynn is one of the top backups currently in the league, but he was an utter disaster when teams attempted to turn him into a starter. The league has realized now that he is best suited for a situational role, someone to turn to when a better option fails. In a couple years they will realize the same about McCarron.

 

5) Zach Mettenberger

Mettenberger looks like a quarterback, and that’s pretty much all that can be said in his favor. He is tall and thick with a rocket arm, but he lacks any other attributes you would look for in a starting quarterback. He has very little experience reading defenses, he isn’t particularly accurate with the ball, and he threw interceptions at a higher rate than any other top quarterback in the draft. The only justifiable reason to draft him is as a project for a coach who believes he can make a quality quarterback out of raw potential.

Upside: Joe Flacco

Mettenberger’s one real positive is his ability to throw the ball deep down the field. Of the quarterbacks studied by Page, he threw the ball 20+ yards downfield on a higher percentage of his throws than anyone else. More importantly, he completed a higher percentage than anyone else on these deep passes. If he can consistently hit on the deep ball (while also limiting interceptions) he can become a lesser Joe Flacco, another quarterback who only really excels when asked to launch the ball as far as he can.

Downside: Blaine Gabbert

It is just as likely that Mettenberger could wind up as Blaine Gabbert, one of the most staggeringly terrible quarterbacks of the past decade. Like Mettenberger, Gabbert came out of college with very little to offer as a player besides a raw skillset, tools that he failed to develop in the league. He was unable to adjust to an NFL offense, and he could not handle the pressure of a genuine pass rush. Unless Mettenberger makes great strides from the player he was in college, he could easily wind up the same sort of miserable failure.

Likely Outcome: Josh Freeman

It is strange to compare anyone to the bizarre career of Josh Freeman, but I think Mettenberger could follow a similar path. He might be able to impress people early on with flashy explosive plays, but I don’t expect him to find any long term success as a starter. His only hope is to find a great coach who can shape his formidable talent into a capable quarterback, but there are very few examples of such brilliance being found in the NFL.

4) Derek Carr

Carr is one of the more difficult quarterbacks to figure out in this draft. He put up stunning numbers during his time at Fresno State, throwing for 10 more touchdowns and 400 more yards than any other quarterback in Division I last season. But the NFL has seen plenty of stat-heavy quarterbacks fail before, and it would not be difficult to dismiss Carr as just another Colt Brennan or Case Keenum. But unlike those two players, Carr has all the physical tools he needs to succeed in the NFL. The questions that remain are whether he can translate these skills to an NFL system being run against NFL defenses.

Upside: Philip Rivers

Carr isn’t as physically imposing as Rivers, but his skillset is very similar. Both quarterbacks have strong arms that often conceal their issues throwing downfield. Rivers struggled through the past couple seasons in Norv Turner’s vertical passing attack before finding success in a scheme of short, quick passes under Mike McCoy. From Gage’s numbers, we can see a similar trend with Carr. Most of his passes took place either behind the line of scrimmage or within twenty yards, and when he was asked to throw deeper than that he was one of the least accurate of the quarterbacks studied. This isn’t a huge problem if he can find a coach and a scheme to mask these failures, though it is troubling that a number of reports indicate that Norv Turner and the Vikings are high on him.

Downside: Christian Ponder

And that leads perfectly into why drafting Carr could be a disaster. The Vikings have just come to terms with the failure that was Ponder, a quarterback who could not handle pressure or stretch the field. A good scheme can hide such flaws, but if a defense knows it can’t be beaten over the top it saves them from having to worry about defending vast stretches of the field. Carr could end up facing press coverage across the board and a box stacked against the run, and he may not be able to exploit the vulnerabilities of these defenses. His other greatest weakness is in handling pressure. He rarely faced much pressure through most of the season, but in the bowl game against USC he was torn apart by a middling pass rush. Smart defenses will attack him and press his receivers at the line, eliminating his ability to get rid of the ball quickly. Unless he can stand in the pocket, absorb a big hit, and deliver the ball with accuracy downfield, he will likely fail in the NFL.

Likely Outcome: Chad Henne

Carr won’t be a Pro Bowl quarterback. He may not even be a reliable option as a starter. But he will definitely hang around the league, and he will provide some value as either a backup or a spot starter. The best current example of this is Henne, a quarterback who was drafted in the second round in 2008 and has remained relevant in the league by virtue of putting up big numbers on a terrible team. Carr probably won’t make it as a starter, but he will still be in the league in five years.

3) Blake Bortles

I am not nearly as high on Bortles as most people seem to be. There is no doubt that he is an incredibly gifted player, and I think he is absolutely worthy of a first round pick. But I would not put him in the same category as Manziel or Bridgewater. As high as his upside is, everything about him screams bust potential. He is athletic, but he has little experience playing in an NFL system. He has a strong arm, but there are definite accuracy concerns. He could be the best quarterback to come out of this draft, but he could also be a disaster.

Upside: Ben Roethlisberger

Like Roethlisberger, Bortles is an imposing athlete who excels when forced to improvise. He has better speed than Roethlisberger, but he is more suited as a scrambler behind the line than a ball carrier past it. As much trouble as he has with accuracy from the pocket, Bortles is probably the most accurate passer in this draft class when forced to throw on the move. He will need a couple years to develop, but if he has a good, patient coach he can absolutely reach the same heights as Roethlisberger, and perhaps even exceed them. His upside is on par with Manziel’s, and it is the reason why many consider him the top quarterback in the draft.

Downside: Jake Locker

This downside is why I have him ranked behind the other two. Locker isn’t a terrible player (though I anticipate this is his last season as a starter in Tennessee) and Bortles’s downside is probably even lower than this. But the similarities between him and Locker are just too obvious to pass up. Both are impressive athletes who exploded onto the college scene for a single magnificent season. In Locker’s case, he decided to stay following his breakout year and fell from the likely top pick to eighth overall. Since he arrived in the NFL, he has struggled with the same accuracy issues that have troubled Bortles during his time in college. I’ll probably have more to say about Locker in a later post, but right now I’ll just say that the only reason he is still a starting quarterback is because injuries have limited his chances to show how mediocre he is.

Likely Outcome: Matthew Stafford

As great a risk as Bortles is, I still think he will turn out to be a quality starter in the league. Much like Stafford he will be able to make enough flash plays to cover up other shortcomings, but I’m not sure if he will ever have the consistency to be an elite player in the league. As I address with Bridgewater below, accuracy is the most important attribute for an NFL quarterback to have. This is Bortles’s greatest shortcoming, and it is why I would not take him before either of the two quaterbacks listed below.

2) Johnny Manziel

Manziel is the most polarizing quarterback to enter the league since Cam Newton. I personally have changed my opinion on him several times over the past year, and he has been steadily growing on me since his stellar performance in his bowl game against Duke. Concerns about his small stature no longer appear relevant to most NFL teams, especially since he has the large hands and arm strength to overcome the problems faced by undersized quarterbacks in the past. He is capable of making every throw needed in the league, and he is more accurate as a passer than most people realize.

Upside: Aaron Rodgers

Okay, let’s slow down for a second. I highly doubt Manziel will ever reach the same heights as Rodgers. I don’t think he will ever be the best quarterback in the league, but he could very easily be a perennial Pro Bowler for whichever team drafts him. I chose Rodgers as a comparison because among the top quarterbacks in the league he is most stylistically similar to Manziel. Both players are capable of making plays with their mobility, but both are probably best suited as pocket passers. Manziel will not be the same running threat in the NFL as he was in college because his body simply cannot endure the punishment—he is more Michael Vick than Russell Wilson, skinny rather than stocky. To reach this height Manziel will need a lot of work learning to read defenses and will have to learn how to take better care of the ball, but he is a smart, hard working player capable of making these changes.

Downside: Rex Grossman

I’ve chosen more recent players for most of the others in the league, but the Manziel-Grossman parallels are too significant to ignore. Like Manziel, Grossman burst onto the scene as an underclassman, putting together a season that probably should have earned him the Heisman. But concerns about his height led to him falling late in the first round to the Bears. Through his time in Chicago he was maddeningly inconsistent, alternating flashes of brilliance with games in which he didn’t appear to recall which team he was supposed to throw to. Manziel’s high interception total in 2013 was misleading (among the quarterbacks surveyed by Gage he was middle of the pack in interception percentage and several of his interceptions were deflected off the hands of his receivers) but if he can’t take care of the ball he could easily wind up as a failure in the NFL.

Likely Outcome: Tony Romo

When I watch Manziel, I see the second coming of Romo. To some people that may be an insult, but I actually believe Romo is one of the ten best quarterbacks in the league. He is capable of making enough plays to carry his team to victory, but he is constantly haunted by the negative consequences of his risk taking style. Manziel will have a similarly turbulent career. He will find his greatest success when he improvises, but he will also suffer miserable failures doing so. Whoever gets Manziel will have to learn to live with these inconsistencies, but if they can do so they will have one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL.

 

1) Teddy Bridgewater

Bridgewater began the season as the highest rated quarterback, and despite countless attempts to tear him down I still believe he is the best option on the board. He has above average athletic ability and a capably strong arm, but what really sets him apart from the other quarterbacks is his accuracy. I went through in detail my thoughts on the first game I watched him play, and everything I have seen since then has only confirmed my initial observations. Look at the breakdown by Gage I presented above, and you will notice that Bridgewater is near or at the top in completion percentage to almost every part of the field. Accuracy is the most essential attribute for an NFL quarterback to possess, and Bridgewater is far and away the most accurate passer in this draft.

Upside: Matt Ryan

There are a number of similarities to be found between Bridgewater and Ryan. Both went into their final year in college as the top quarterback in their class, and both put together seasons that were just unspectacular enough to invite unwarranted criticism. Overexposure led to overanalysis, which led to them falling in the draft. Ryan was the best player available, but the Falcons got him at number three. Bridgewater is the best quarterback, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him as the third quarterback off the board. There are concerns about his slender frame, doubts about his perfectly average arm strength. And while it’s true that his upside may not be quite at the same level as Bortles or Manziel, that shouldn’t be taken to mean he can’t be an elite quarterback. A smart coach can utilize his strengths and turn him into one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL.

Downside: Sam Bradford

Bridgewater’s upside isn’t as high as the other two, but his downside isn’t as low. If he fails, it will be because his career follows a similar path to Bradford’s. He will be able to run a mildly effective offense no matter who surrounds him, but if he isn’t given elite talent he may not be able to produce the sort of explosive plays you need from a quarterback. As misguided as the analysis of his low weight is, his slender frame could lead to injury issues of the same sort that have hindered Bradford’s development. But for a worst case scenario, teams can do a lot worse than getting another Bradford.

Likely Outcome: Russell Wilson

There have been many comparisons made between Wilson and Manziel, but I think it is more appropriate to compare him and Bridgewater. Both quarterbacks are mobile, but it isn’t the strength of their games. Both specialize in smart, efficient play, minimizing mistakes at the expense of attacking tight windows. Neither may reach the heights of the premier quarterbacks in the league, but they will provide their teams with everything they could possibly ask for from the quarterback position. Wilson has already led his team to a Super Bowl, and I absolutely believe that Bridgewater is capable of doing the same.

The Bizarre Start to the NFL Season

Okay, yesterday was weird. The first day of free agency always brings its share of unusual moments, but yesterday seemed to take that to a whole new level. Teams paid too much for certain players, while other players took far less than they were worth. Several teams seemed to toss the salary cap out the window. San Francisco seemed to decide they didn’t really like draft picks.

Below are some of the transactions that really puzzled me. I’ll try to avoid commenting on deals that were simply good or bad, sticking instead to those that made absolutely no sense. It shouldn’t be a problem. I have a feeling that March 11, 2014 will go down in history as the day the entire NFL lost its goddamn mind.

Weirdness Number 1: The Offensive Linemen

It took only fifteen minutes for the top offensive linemen to find new teams. Guard Zane Beadles went to Jacksonville on a semi-reasonable 5 year, $30 million deal. Tackle Branden Albert was signed by Miami on a slightly too large deal of 5 years, $47 million. The other two top tackles available, Jared Veldheer and Eugene Monroe, are both similar caliber players to Albert, and it wouldn’t have been absurd for them to get similar contracts. Instead, Monroe resigned with Baltimore for 5 years, $37.5 million while Veldheer went off to Arizona for 5 years, $35 million. It seems strange that they both got so much less money than Albert, but maybe that’s just a sign that Miami overpaid. Maybe it was really hard to justify giving an offensive linemen more than $40 million in this market.

Which brings us to…

Weirdness Number 2: Let’s all laugh at Cleveland and Oakland

Rodger Saffold signed a 5 year contract worth $42.5 million. To play in Oakland. Where Jared Veldheer had just come from.

For those of you who don’t follow offensive line play closely (first of all, why not?) Veldheer is a much better player than Saffold. It’s not even close. Veldheer has played left tackle, the most important position on the offensive line, with great success ever since he came into the league. He is a physical nightmare, and quite possibly the best player on the Raiders the past few seasons. Saffold played right tackle for the Rams last year before they decided he was better suited to play right guard. And the Raiders gave him $1.5 million more a year than Veldheer, THEIR OWN PLAYER, got.

In similar news, Cleveland replaced hard-hitting-All-Pro-safety TJ Ward with hard-hitting-but-not-really-good-at-anything-else-safety Donte Whitner. They gave him $28 million over 4 years. TJ Ward, again THEIR OWN PLAYER, went to Denver and signed a 4 year, $23 million contract.

Shit like this is why these two teams have combined for one playoff appearance since 2002. If you have a good player on your team, why are you letting him leave in order to pay more money to a worse player? Yes, I understand there may be mitigating circumstances. I understand that Ward may have taken a discount to compete for a championship in Denver (not sure what Veldheer’s excuse for going to Arizona is.) I understand that teams like Oakland and Cleveland may have to pay a premium to retain good players, but maybe they should just suck it up and pay it. Oakland had more cap space than any other team in the league. If they were willing to give $42.5 million to Saffold, why wouldn’t they give $45 million to Veldheer? And also, why didn’t they resign Lamarr Houston, the only other player on their roster who was any good last year?

The Vikings aren’t a model franchise by any means, but it’s days like these when I can at least be glad to be a fan of a team that isn’t totally incompetent. Because there are teams like Oakland and Cleveland out there, teams that are just hopelessly terrible and will probably remain that way for a long time.

Speaking of which…

Weirdness Number 3: Jacksonville actually did a decent job

Okay, this one may be a bit mean spirited. But congratulations to the Jaguars on improving their team somewhat through free agency. The Red Bryant signing a few days back was a solid move, as was the addition of Zane Beadles today. Those are two decent, veteran pieces that they added to the trenches. The only way they could have possibly improved on this day would be to find some way to get rid of Blaine Gabbert at minimal cost…

Weirdness Number 4: I expect better from you, San Francisco

Why would San Francisco want Blaine Gabbert? Why would anyone want Blaine Gabbert? I think this is a great deal from Jacksonville’s end, principally because they never have to worry about Gabbert suiting up for them again. But seriously, San Francisco, what the hell? Do you not care about draft picks at all? Oh, you just traded a pick for Jonathan Martin? Okay, I guess.

I suppose it’s not as bad as I’m portraying it, but it’s still kind of weird. First of all, the deal for Jonathan Martin is actually reasonable. They traded a conditional seventh round pick, meaning they only have to send it on the off chance Martin decides he wants to try football again. Martin played for Harbaugh at Stanford, and if he’s going to try to expose himself to an NFL locker room again it might as well be someplace where he has a coach he can trust. He was brutal when he played last year, but he is still a former second round pick only two years out of college.

The Gabbert move is weirder, but I can kind of rationalize it too. For a team as loaded with talent as San Francisco, the average sixth round pick probably won’t make the roster. The pick is much more valuable in Jacksonville, where the average sixth round player would probably be a starter. But I still see absolutely no upside in having Gabbert on the roster. A sixth round pick for San Francisco has nearly zero value. Blaine Gabbert has exactly zero value.

Speaking of players with nearly zero value…

Weirdness Number 5: The Running Backs

Does anyone have any idea how much a running back is worth anymore? Because it seems like right now the position is almost worthless. As one NFL GM put it, "That position needs its own union. We treat our equipment people better than we treat our running backs." We saw this early in the day as Darren McFadden resigned with Oakland on a measly 1 year, $1.75 million contract with only $100,000 guaranteed. Teams believe that they can just get a running back from anywhere, plug him in, and get solid production. It looked at first as if no one would be handing out eight figure contracts to running backs this year.

And then Toby Gerhart and Donald Brown each received 3 year, $10.5 million contracts. You know Gerhart, he of 276 career carries in four seasons. And good old “God dammit, Donald!” Both players had reasonably strong seasons last year, but they aren’t worth the money they were given. Not in the market for running backs that had already been set.

Weirdness Number 6: The Salary Cap

Teams went into yesterday with cap space ranging from $2 million all the way up to $60 million. Some teams with little space, like Dallas, played it conservative and didn’t sign anyone. A team like Oakland, the league leader in cap space, spent more money than all but one team (even though the money they spent was pretty much wasted.) You would figure that this would be a trend, that the teams with the most space would be the most aggressive.

But then there were the Jets, one of the league’s masters of doing things that make absolutely no sense. There isn’t an offense in the league as barren of talent as the one in New York. Their best skill position player is probably Chris Ivory. It would seem prudent for them to try to grab a wide receiver, or a running back, or even an offensive linemen. Instead, they resigned their kicker Nick Folk and let everyone else have their fun. This isn’t necessarily a problem—sometimes the best strategy is to wait—but a more troubling concern may be the player that remains on their roster. Why haven’t they cut Mark Sanchez yet? His cap number is more than $13 million this season, and they can cut off $9 million of that just by releasing him. So why haven’t they done so? Is there still a chance Sanchez could be a Jet next season? That thought has to terrify any fan of the Jets, and really any fan of quality football.

On the other side of the cap spectrum was New Orleans. Coming into yesterday they had $2.7 million free with the potential to open up a little more space by cutting or trading Darren Sproles. But they still appeared to be in bad shape, a team that would sit out free agency. When it was announced that they were taking a visit from top free agent Jairus Byrd, most people rolled their eyes and assumed he would be out of there as soon as he saw the money they had to offer. When it came out that he had actually signed in New Orleans for 6 years, $54 million dollars, I’m not sure anyone had any idea how that was going to work.

We haven’t seen the specific numbers yet, but I’d guess that New Orleans dealt with this by backloading his contract. In his first couple years he likely won’t make much money, playing with a small cap number so they can afford to keep him and resign players like Jimmy Graham. It will be two or three years down the road before his cap hit explodes to an unreasonable value, but the Saints are willing to deal with that when it arrives. They know their window of contention is entirely dependent on Drew Brees, and they are going all in while he is still an elite quarterback. It means that they will be an absolute train wreck in three years with no way to fix the mess they’ve made, but they’re willing to deal with that if it can get them another shot at a Super Bowl.

Now, finally, the most perplexing deals of the day…

Weirdness Number 7: The Cornerbacks

Normally it is easy to gauge a market for each position. The better players get more money and more years. Two players of the same caliber and same age usually wind up with the same deal. Every so often there are minor exceptions, such as what happened with the offensive linemen I mentioned above, but I don’t think I have ever seen what happened yesterday on the cornerback market.

Coming into free agency it was perceived that there were four cornerbacks of roughly equal value available on the market. Vontae Davis, Aqib Talib, Alterraun Verner, and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (cornerbacks have the best names) are all young, talented players with the potential to turn into elite defenders. Everyone has their own preferences among them, but there is no consensus about which is the best. In a reasonable world, they all would have gotten similar contracts.

Unfortunately (fortunately?), we don’t live in a reasonable world. The market was set a few days back when the Packers signed Sam Shields to a 4 year, $39 million contract. I expected the others to receive similar contracts, so I wasn’t surprised when the Colts gave Vontae Davis a contract of the same length and value, only with more guaranteed money. I expected Verner, Talib, and Rodgers-Cromartie all to receive similar deals. So naturally I was surprised when Verner signed in Tampa Bay for only four years and $26.5 million.

A quick aside on Tampa Bay: the Buccaneers are reportedly planning on cutting Darrelle Revis later today. Revis was the best cornerback in the league a couple years ago, and he was pretty damn good last season despite coming off a torn ACL. When he signed an extension with the Buccaneers last year, he agreed to a deal that paid him no guaranteed money. It was seen as a sign that he was willing to prove that he was worth the investment, but all it really meant was that Tampa Bay could cut him with no cost if they brought in a coach whose system didn’t match his skills. Wherever Revis ends up, expect his agent to demand a sizeable sum of guaranteed money.

It was smart of Tampa Bay to get someone quality to replace him, and it was extremely lucky that they got such a great deal. There is no reason Verner should be making so much less than Davis. There were undoubtedly teams out there that would have paid him more money—the Vikings, Lions, Jets, and Steelers all reportedly had interest. I don’t know why he would agree to such a contract.

The final bizarre cornerback deal of the night went to Aqib Talib, on the far opposite end of the spectrum. He signed in Denver for 6 years, $57 million of which $26 million is guaranteed. That’s right, Talib received almost as much money guaranteed as Verner did total. This is way too much money, but I understand what Denver was thinking with it. Like the Saints, they are going all in on their aging quarterback. Talib gives them a quality player and hurts their chief competition the Patriots, the team thought to be the favorite for Talib. Is it an overpay? Absolutely. Are they screwed a few years down the line? Probably. Do they care? Hell no.

Oh, and I have absolutely no idea how much Rodgers-Cromartie will make when he signs.There is plenty more madness to come.

Free Agent Bargains

The NFL season officially begins on Tuesday at 3 pm with the opening of free agency. I don’t know about you, but I am already sick of not having football. Onto the 2014 season!

Free agency is one of the more awkward periods of the offseason. For a couple of days everyone watches with bated breath as the teams compete to overpay the top available free agents. This year we will see players like Eric Decker, Brandon Albert, Aqib Talib, and Michael Bennett given much more money than they deserve. We will have to spend the next couple years hearing their new teams grumble about how terrible these players are while they put up solidly above average seasons, all because the teams couldn’t control themselves in the free market of free agency.

The much smarter way to play free agency is to avoid the top players and target the bargains available once the initial frenzy has worn down. The two teams represented in last year’s Super Bowl were fine examples of this, represented by players such as Cliff Avril, Michael Bennett, Dominque Rodgers Cormartie, Shaun Phillips, and Terrence Knighton. All these players signed for significantly less money than they were worth, and the teams were able to do so because they were patient in free agency and didn’t waste all their money outbidding for the top players.

I’ve looked through the list of available free agents and selected ten I think could make extremely good bargains. I included where they were listed on NFL.com’s list of free agents, and I made a completely arbitrary cutline at number 15. These are the players below that line who could make some teams very happy next year.

As you read this, it is important to keep in mind that there likely won’t be as many great bargains this year as there were last year. Between 2012 and 2013 season the cap remained mostly steady, meaning only a select few teams could take part in the free agency frenzy. This year the cap rose by nearly $10 million. Teams with a little cap space suddenly have a lot of cap space, and teams that were tight to begin with can easily make enough space to go after a top free agent (except Carolina. Carolina is screwed.) Last year the small cap meant many players were squeezed into taking short term deals below what they were worth. This year, teams that miss out on the top players will give big contracts to the middle tier free agents, because what the hell else were they supposed to do with that money?

Note: Both Everson Griffen and Red Bryant have already signed new contracts. They did so after I had written them up, so I decided to keep them in and offer brief commentary on the deals that were reached.

Henry Melton (17)

DT Bears

A year ago Melton was one of the top available free agents. Only 26 years old, he had established himself as one of the top young defensive talents in the league. A former college running back (as they will inform you during any Bears game you watch) many felt Melton was only scratching the surface of his potential. The Bears tried to sign him long term but were forced to rely on the franchise tag when a deal couldn’t be reached. This actually looked like it would work out for Melton, considering the dismal market for free agent defensive linemen last year. Spend another year showing what he was capable of, and he could have been the top free agent in the 2014 class, a target of all the teams flush with cash.

But then, in Week 3 against the Steelers, he tore his ACL. His loss was probably the most significant on a defense that was brutalized by injuries, and it has become clear how important he was to the team. But the ACL injury is the sort that still scares people, despite the strong success some players have had returning from it. There are still too many athletes who have struggled to get up to speed (RGIII) or suffered another injury as a follow up (not to pile on Chicago sports fans, but Derrick Rose…) Melton will still receive a large contract based on upside, but if he can return to the player he was he will outperform whatever he’s earning.

Everson Griffen (19)

DE/OLB Vikings

Griffen has excelled as Minnesota's number three defensive end over the past few seasons. Stuck behind the stellar tandem of Brian Robison and Jared Allen, Griffen still managed to put up 8 sacks in 2012 and 5.5 in 2013. They played him primarily in passing situations lined up at defensive tackle, but this past season he received more reps as part of a normal defensive end rotation. He is ready and capable of moving into a more prominent role, and he will get his opportunity this year.

Griffen is a phenomenal athlete with great upside as a pass rusher. He has the speed to run around a tackle, the strength to push his way past one, and a spin move that can give him a free lane to the quarterback. Watching film of him, I was highly impressed with his skill as a run defender. He gets good leverage and keeps contain, but he also has the strength to move a blocker and bounce down inside to make the tackle. The Vikings have shown a strong interest in keeping him around to take the place of the departing Allen, but he might be better suited to go to a team that would allow him to use his athleticism as a 3-4 outside linebacker.

On Sunday Griffen agreed to a 5 year $42.5 million new contract with the Vikings. This makes him one of the ten highest paid defensive ends in the league on a per year basis (this should change once players like Michael Johnson, Michael Bennett, and Jared Allen get new deals) despite him having started only one game in his career.  It may be a slight overpayment, but I will reserve judgment until I see the details of the contract. Ideally it would be structured to be frontloaded so most of the guaranteed money comes in the first couple years. This would get the worst of his cap hit out of the way while the team has plenty of cap space and would give them the ability to cut him down the road without great loss if he doesn’t pan out.

Arthur Jones (31)

DE/DT Ravens

In Baltimore Jones played the role of a traditional 3-4 defensive end, meaning that he offered next to nothing as a pass rusher. He didn’t bother trying to penetrate into the backfield, preferring to stand his ground and control the offensive lineman in front of him. This isn’t a failing, merely a matter of scheme, but any team that signs him has to expect more of a defensive tackle than a defensive end. Whenever the Ravens went to the nickel he actually slid down inside, playing over the guard in a front with two down linemen and the outside linebackers walked up on the edge of the line.

But as a defensive tackle, Jones presents a strong presence on a defense. His ability to stand an offensive lineman up allows him to cover the gaps on either side of him and gives the linebackers behind him more space to scrape and make plays. He will be best suited to find a team that played a scheme similar to Baltimore’s, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see them retain him. He shouldn’t cost much at all, as any defensive end (even one who plays in a 3-4) isn’t compensated unless he produces a large quantity of sacks.

Walter Thurmond (37)

CB Seahawks

In a deep market of cornerbacks this year, it is very possible to find a quality player at a bargain once the first run of players has completed. Thurmond could be such a player, especially if he spends the first week looking for money of the sort Sam Shields just received. He is leaving Seattle because he believes he deserves to start, and Seattle is letting him go because they churn out quality cornerbacks like a sweatshop. With the bevy of cornerbacks available, teams will have plenty of other options. They will be reluctant to pay for a cornerback who has only started eight games in four years and missed the final quarter of the season last year due to a suspension for a performance enhancing substance.

The team that signs Thurmond will do so because they are trying to recreate Seattle’s defensive scheme. Thurmond isn’t the best player for this—at 5-11 he was the shortest cornerback on the Seahawks roster last year—but teams will hope that he can bring the skills he was taught with him. He played primarily in the slot for Seattle but showed plenty of capability when forced to bounce outside. In his few games he played well enough to start for any other team, but on Seattle it was hard for him to find playing time.

Red Bryant (40)

DE/DT Seahawks

I can think of no better example of a player who will be underpaid because of the league’s failure to recognize the value he brings. Bryant is a natural defensive tackle who can bump out to defensive end, but wherever he plays he does one thing extraordinarily well: stop the run. He is a space eating roadblock who never moves forward or backwards from the line. He stays in place no matter how many men are pushing at him, and he stuffs up the front to allow the linebackers behind him to scrape to the ball.

The reason Bryant will be a bargain is because he is hopelessly lost as a pass rusher. In six seasons in the league he has a total of 3.5 sacks. That just isn’t seen as acceptable for a defensive end in this league, no matter how good he is at stopping the run. It’s why Seattle cut him to open up room to resign Michael Bennett, a player who provides the threat of a pass rush while being almost as good against the run. Whoever signs Bryant will be getting an extraordinary bargain, a dominant player who is paid like a middle of the pack starter.

Since he was a free agent due to his release rather than the expiration of his contact, Bryant was able to sign a 4 year $17 million contract with Jacksonville before the free agent period started. I don’t have much to say on this besides that it was a wonderful signing by the Jaguars. They have been a mess up front for several years, but now they have finally added a worthwhile piece at a cost of less than $5 million a year.

Louis Delmas (48)

S Lions

Delmas was selected by the Lions with the first pick of the second round in 2009. His athleticism and instincts quickly made him into one of the better young players in the NFL, and after two successful seasons to begin his career it looked as if the Lions had finally filled one of the gaping holes in their defense. But over the next two seasons Delmas missed a combined 13 games due to injuries. He started every game in 2013, but the Lions decided to cut him after the season.

Delmas will never develop into the star safety he looked like he could be during his first two seasons, but he can be a contributor on a strong defense provided he stays healthy. He doesn’t create many explosive plays (only five interceptions on his career) but he does a solid job handling whatever responsibilities he is given. He tackles well in space, and he doesn’t let receivers get behind him when responsible for a deep zone. His injury history will allow his next team to sign him at a bargain rate.

Zane Beadles (65)

G Broncos

The offensive line in Denver never received the credit it deserved, especially the interior of the line. By now everyone knows how masterful Manning is at moving within the pocket, but they don’t appreciate how essential it is for a line to maintain that pocket. The guards and the center need to be able to hold their ground to give room for the quarterback to step up, and Denver’s interior excelled at that last year. Right guard Louis Vasquez was selected first team All Pro, and center Manny Ramirez did an excellent job for a third stringer forced into starting duty. Beadles was probably the worst of the three interior players, but he was still an important piece of the highest scoring offense in NFL history.

Beadles wasn’t ideally suited for Denver’s offensive scheme. He excels in run blocking, particularly when he can get to the second level. Denver spent most of the time throwing the ball, and when they did run they usually forced Beadles to block a defensive tackle directly in front of him. They rarely asked him to pull, but he was incredibly successful when given the opportunity. His weakness is in pass blocking, as he occasionally struggles with blitz recognition and pickup. He is still only 27 years old, and whichever team signs him will be getting a talented young player with room to grow.

Chris Clemons (67)

S Dolphins

Clemons is one of the most versatile safeties in the league. He played a number of roles in Miami’s secondary, alternating between covering a deep zone and running up into the box. He appears comfortable no matter where he is placed on the field. He has the physicality and mentality to attack against the run, and he has the speed to play back as the single deep safety in a Cover-1.

At 28 years of age, Clemons has already established the sort of player he is in this. He lacks the raw potential of many younger defensive backs, and teams will be reluctant to give him a massive contract despite his years of stellar play. He doesn’t make a lot of splash plays (only four interceptions in his five year career) but he is a solid role player a top team would love to have on their roster.

Chris Cook (75)

CB Vikings

I am probably the last Vikings fan who still has any positive feelings towards Chris Cook. Any who didn’t turn against him when he choked his fiancée did so when they found out that only one other player has gone as many starts without an interception to begin a career. The final straw came in their Week 13 game against the Bears when he was twice burned for touchdowns by Alshonn Jeffery before being ejected from the game for making contact with a referee. But let’s take a moment to look at those two touchdowns.

There we see why some team will sign Cook, and why that team may just get more than what they paid for. He had excellent coverage on each of these plays, but he just couldn't finish the job. Cook is a long, athletic cornerback who is still only 27 years old. He has good coverage instincts and technique, though he was often misused in Minnesota’s Tampa-2 system. His biggest problem is his inability to play the ball while it’s in the air. This is a serious problem for a cornerback, but it’s one that can be resolved by coaching. The ideal fit for him would be Seattle, an organization that has specialized in taking physically impressive athletes and coaching them into successful football players.

Kenny Britt (101)

WR Titans

I know, I know. Britt was maybe the worst player in football last season, and Tennessee is thrilled to send him on his way. He was a disappointment on the field and a malcontent off it, and it actually wouldn’t be a surprise if he never played in the NFL again. Many teams will take him out of consideration altogether considering how his time in Tennessee ended.

But there only needs to be one team that is interested to keep his career alive, one team that sees promise in a 6-3, 215 pound receiver who looked to be a budding star only a couple years ago. From that point it is entirely up to Britt. Will he mature into a capable member of a team? Will he develop his raw potential into a quality football player? Probably not, but there is enough upside to get a team to wager a million dollars on a one year contract.