Franchise Tag

The Super Bowl is behind us, and it is time to move on to the 2014 season. Though the official start of the season isn't until free agency opens on March 11, tomorrow is the first major event of the year. Starting tomorrow teams can begin handing out franchise tags to a free agent from their team, locking them up for next season.

The rules of the franchise tag are complicated, but here is a crash course. Each team is allowed to franchise one player a season. A player who is tagged is forced to sign a one year contract worth either the average of the five highest paid players at their position or their previous year's salary multiplied by 1.2, whichever is higher. The teams like this because it allows them to force a player to stay with their team for another year. The players don't like it, especially after injuries last season to franchised players like Henry Melton, Michael Johnson, and Anthony Spencer severely hurt their values for long term deals.

I've gone through the teams in the league, looked through their free agents, and picked out those I think most likely to receive the franchise tag. Some of these will be tagged and some won't be. There may even be a couple players who aren't on this list that end up getting the tag. But these are the most obvious contenders.

One Year Wonders

These players all had great seasons last year, but that’s pretty much all they have on their resume. If they can perform consistently at this high level they could be extremely valuable, but they could also regress to a more standard level next season. Their teams will use the franchise tag to get a better idea of what sort of players they are dealing with.

Dallas Cowboys: DT Jason Hatcher

Tag Value: $9.2 million

Hatcher is the best example of this category. Drafted in 2006, he toiled through seven years of mediocrity before an explosive contract season in which he accumulated career highs in sacks, tackles, and forced fumbles. When Sean Lee was out of the lineup he was the best player on the Cowboys’ defense. He did everything you would expect from someone who was about to receive a big contract, but it is hard to ignore the first seven years of his career. Was last season just a fluke, or was his increase in production a replicable result of his move from a 3-4 defensive end to a 4-3 defensive tackle? With the terrible contracts already weighing Dallas’s finances down, the smart thing to do is to give him another year to prove that he deserves a long term extension.

Denver Broncos: CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie

Tag Value: $11.3 million

Rodgers-Cromartie is the first of three cornerbacks to fall into this category. Denver signed him to a one year “prove it” deal before last season, and he certainly earned a bigger payday this time around. A former first round pick who disappointed after being traded to the Eagles, he arrived in Denver with mixed expectations and became one of their better defensive players. By the time the Super Bowl rolled around he was the only competent player left in Denver’s secondary. With Chris Harris coming off a torn ACL and Champ Bailey a shell of himself, it would be devastating if they lost Rodgers-Cromartie from their secondary.

New England Patriots: CB Aqib Talib

Tag Value: $11.3 million

Talib was in a similar situation to Rodgers-Cromartie after being shipped out of Tampa Bay. New England gave him a chance, and he absolutely lived up to it during the first half of the season. He was one of the best cornerbacks in the league, shutting down the opposing team’s top receiver week in and week out. But as the season wore on he struggled with injuries, and he was only a marginal contributor in the playoffs. New England will want to see more than an eight game sample of dominance before they reward him with a large contract. I could also see them not bothering to keep him around, deciding that they like the young talent they discovered in their secondary this season.

Tennessee Titans: CB Alterraun Verner

Tag Value: $11.3 million

Verner is another cornerback who got off to a hot start before fading down the stretch, but he is probably the best player of the three in this category. He and Jurrell Casey led a defensive resurgence in Tennessee this season, and partnered with Jason McCourty he gives Tennessee one of the best cornerback tandems in the league. But the strength they have at that position might be enough to convince the Titans to let him walk, especially with the expensive price of the franchise tag. They may not have seen enough of him to justify that expense, not when they have suitable options to replace him.

Long Term Uncertainty

The players in this category have all demonstrated their value at the NFL level over the course of their careers. But because of injury or age, their teams are unwilling to commit to a long term deal. This is the worst situation for a player to find themselves in, but it’s great for the teams trying to squeeze one more season out of a player they aren’t certain is part of their long term future.

Chicago Bears: CB Charles Tillman, DT Henry Melton

Tag Value: $11.3 million, $9.2 million

Teams can only give out one franchise tag, but either Melton or Tillman could get it in Chicago. Melton was tagged last year when they were unable to reach a long term deal, and then he tore his ACL in Week 3. On a defense that suffered a number of injuries this season, you could make a strong case this was the worst of them. They aren’t set on whether or not they will bring him back, but before his injury he was one of the best defensive tackles in the league. They may use the tag to see how he bounces back before trying a long term deal.

The more likely route is that they use the tag on Tillman, another player who suffered through injuries last season. Tillman is the best player in Chicago’s secondary when healthy, but he is starting to get up there in years. He’ll be 33 when the next season starts, and he only played eight games last year. They don't want to give him more than two or three years, so they will be forced to make do with the franchise tag.

Miami Dolphins: CB Brent Grimes

Tag Value: $11.3 million

Grimes was among the least heralded of Miami’s free agent signings last season, but he probably ended up being the best of them. Like Rodgers-Cromartie and Talib he was given a one year deal, and he had a similarly impressive season. Unlike those two, Grimes is in his thirties and has an extensive injury history. He played more games last season than he did in the previous two combined. Miami would probably prefer to give him a two or three year deal—especially considering the price of the franchise tag—but they may not be able to convince him to settle for something so short term.

Washington Redskins: OLB Brian Orakpo

Tag Value: $11.5 million

Washington was a mess last season, and Orakpo had as much to do with that as anyone (including RGIII and the Shanahans.) A former first round pick who made the Pro Bowl each of his first two seasons, Orakpo missed most of 2012 due to a torn ACL. He was supposed to return in 2013 as a playmaking force on their defense, joining with Ryan Kerrigan to form one of the top pass rushing duos in the league. Instead he was a disaster, at least at the start of the season. He showed some flashes as the season went on, and the Redskins may consider franchising him to see if he can be the dominant force they were hoping for. If not, they can let him go after next year.

Kansas City Chiefs: OT Branden Albert

Tag Value: $11.1 million

The plan in Kansas City was fairly straightforward. They used the franchise tag on Albert last year before drafting Eric Fisher with the first overall selection. They entertained notions of trading Albert, but when it became clear Fisher wasn’t ready to immediately step in and play left tackle they decided to keep him around for another year. The intention was to let him walk in free agency, and that is likely still what they will do. The problem is that Fisher showed very few signs of being ready to move over to the left side even after one season. Albert will likely escape the franchise tag, but Kansas City could consider retaining him to give Fisher another year without the pressure of protecting the blind side.

Baltimore Ravens: TE Dennis Pitta

Tag Value: $6.7 million

Pitta missed most of last season following a dislocated hip, and the Ravens’ offense clearly missed him. Torrey Smith is their only competent wide receiver, but he specializes in running deep routes down the sideline that are only productive a couple plays a game. With Ray Rice’s bizarre drop in productivity, they absolutely need a tight end as a release valve in the middle of the field. Pitta’s injury will scare them away from giving a long term contract, but they absolutely have to retain him going into next season if they want their offense to have any chance of success.

Negotiations Have Failed

Unlike in the previous two groups, the teams in this category are confident that they want these players around for years to come. The problems arise when the two sides aren’t able to come together to figure out a long term solution. They will use the franchise tag in order to steal another year for negotiations. Maybe they’ll be able to sign them next year, or maybe they will have to let them go.

Buffalo Bills: S Jairus Byrd

Tag Value: $8.3 million

Byrd is one of the best safeties in the league, but the Bills have struggled to find a way to reach a long term deal with him. The team doesn’t value safeties as high as the rest of the league does, and they are unwilling to pay him what he thinks he’s worth. They used the franchise tag on him last year, meaning it will only be more expensive to use it again this year. As essential as Byrd is to their secondary, Buffalo may choose to let him walk rather than paying the expensive tag value.

Cleveland Browns: S T.J. Ward, C Alex Mack

Tag Value: $8.0 million, $11.1 million

Like Chicago, the Browns have a couple of possibilities for their franchise tag. Ward is an athletic, hard hitting safety who has played a crucial role in the development of one of the league’s better defenses. They have tried to work out a long term deal with him, but it looks like they have a bit more work to do to figure the specifics out. The franchise tag would give them another year to work out a long term contract.

Mack is probably a better player than Ward, but it appears unlikely the team will use the tag on him. It would cost them an extra $3 million, and they haven’t shown that they are particularly interested in bringing him back. He played through this last season with only minimal contract negotiations, but that was under a different head coach and a different general manager. It is possible that the new team in charge may consider bringing him back for another year.

Oakland Raiders: DT Lamarr Houston

Tag Value: $9.1 million

The Raiders have one established quality player on their defense, and that is Houston. He plays a crucial role in their hybrid defense, bouncing between defensive tackle and defensive end and holding strong at whatever position he plays. Losing him would make their defense an even bigger joke than it already is. They have plenty of cap room to franchise him while still having enough to pursue other valuable free agents. As a player he may not be worth the full price of the tag, but to the Raiders he is crucial.

Carolina Panthers: DE Greg Hardy

Tag Value: $12.5 million

Hardy established himself last year as one of the best defensive ends in league. In addition to his fifteen sacks he was as stout as any edge rusher against the run. He has the versatility to play in any number of schemes, and if he makes it to free agency he will make a lot of money. Carolina wants to sign him to a long term deal, but their cap situation makes it unfeasible. Their other defensive end, Charles Johnson, is counting more than $16 million against their cap next year. DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, and Mike Tolbert are all overpaid. And they have to find some way to fit an extension for Cam Newton in sometime in the next couple years. If they can franchise Hardy, they might be able to make room under the cap for him next year by cutting Johnson and Tolbert.

Jimmy Graham

New Orleans Saints: TE/WR Jimmy Graham

Tag Value: $6.7 million/$11.6 million

Jimmy Graham is the most fascinating case of all the players on this list, which is why he gets a separate category. He is among the best in the league at his position (whatever position that might be) and the Saints absolutely cannot afford to lose him. They understand it as well, which is why they have made no secret of the fact that they will franchise him. That’s where the complications begin.

Graham has been listed as a tight end ever since he came into the league, and the natural assumption is that he will be classified as a tight end for purposes of the label. But Graham and his agent disagree, claiming that he is actually a wide receiver and is thus entitled to the more valuable tag that accompanies that position. They have a strong case to be made, considering that Graham lines up either split out or in the slot on almost every play he’s in the game. New Orleans doesn’t bother asking him to block, and when they want to run they normally take him off the field. If it wasn’t for his designation as a tight end, anyone watching the Saints play would likely assume that he is just a massive and talented wide receiver.

This isn’t the first time such a debate has occurred. In 2008 the Ravens attempted to franchise Terrell Suggs as an outside linebacker, but he claimed that since he rushed the passer on most plays he should be considered a defensive end. The difference between those positions was only $800,000, but it was significant enough to get the league to create a new designation of defensive end-outside linebacker, giving him the average of the two tags.

Will such a compromise occur in this case? Probably not. I believe that Graham should be listed as a wide receiver, but he will likely only receive tight end money. This saves New Orleans some space, but it could cost them in the long run. Franchising Graham gets them only one more season of control, and a year from now they will have to go through this all over again. It is probably in their best interests to keep Graham as happy as possible in the hopes of signing him to a long term deal in the future.

The Media and Michael Sam

A barrier was breached this past Sunday when NFL prospect Michael Sam announced to the world that he is gay. A First Team All American defensive end from Missouri and reigning SEC Defensive Player of the Year, Sam will likely become the first active openly gay player in the history of the NFL, possibly the first in any major North American sporting league. He immediately became one of the top storylines leading into the draft and the NFL season.

The biggest issue on everybody’s mind is how a gay teammate will affect the dynamics of an NFL locker room. This is an unfortunately valid question, considering remarks made by a number of players in recent years. A locker room has a reputation for masculinity, and as we found out from the Jonathan Martin-Richie Incognito mess in Miami earlier this year it is not uncommon for players to casually drop homophobic slurs. How will players treat an openly gay teammate, and how will Sam react to such an environment?

Truthfully, I don’t think this will be an issue. There will be a few bad elements on any team, but I think there will be enough supportive members of the team and the coaching staff to make certain they don’t cause problems. It will help if Sam gets drafted by a team with an already established coaching staff and leadership group, but wherever he goes I don’t think he will have an issue. He has been in football locker rooms his entire life—including his last season at Missouri before which he informed his teammates and his coaches of his sexuality—and he understands what he will be getting into. I highly doubt we will see any significant incidents occurring within the locker room because of him.

I think the bigger issue will be the reactions of the fans and media members. In this case I’m not actually talking about the homophobic assholes who will shout slurs and profanity at him as he plays on the field. If you’ve ever been to a football game, you know that they do that regardless of a player’s sexuality. A football field is large enough to insulate a player from the worst members of the crowd, and there will be few if any incidents involving Sam and the fans. I think the biggest problems will arise due to the overzealous fans and media members attempting to support him.

We will hear even more of this as we approach the draft, but already we have been swept up in the discussion of how this will affect Sam’s draft status. On NFLDraftScout.com he fell from the 90^th ranked player to 160^th on Monday Morning. An anonymous NFL GM made a statement that he expected several teams to drop Sam on their boards following this announcement. This led to cries of homophobia and discrimination and general condemnation of this anonymous speaker.

I am certain that several teams have already downgraded Sam’s status on their board, perhaps even taken him off altogether. I don’t particularly like this, but I think attributing it to homophobia is a false conclusion. While there may be some members of a team’s staff with personal thoughts on the issue, I doubt there are any front offices in the league with such an institutional bias. The teams that have downgraded him have done so because they don’t want to deal with the media storm that surrounds him, the same reason a number of teams downgraded Manti Te’o last year and Johnny Manziel this year. Many teams and coaches prefer to operate outside of the public’s eye. They don’t want media following the moves of one single player, fans demanding they play him more or play him less. Fair or not, they have decided that they don’t want Sam associated with their team for reasons related to but distinct from his sexuality.

While there are several teams who have downgraded him, I expect there are probably just as many teams who would be willing to reach for him in order to add a public interest story to their team. The Redskins and Jets are always looking for attention, and the Cowboys may even factor in despite the demographics of their fan base. Both the Vikings and the Dolphins have faced accusations of homophobia within their organization, and drafting Sam could offset much of this negative publicity. It only takes one team to decide he’s worth a pick, and I doubt he will suffer a long fall in the draft because of this announcement.

The problem is, Sam’s stock is already falling and will likely continue to fall up until the draft. During his time at Missouri he showed great ability on the field, but as the process continues that will mean less and less compared against his limited physical capabilities. Sam is undersized for a defensive end, and his athleticism isn’t at an elite level. Some have suggested that because of his size he would be better off moving to outside linebacker in a 3-4 scheme, but his athletic shortcoming leave that a less than ideal option. During the Senior Bowl he struggled when forced to play as a linebacker, and teams have begun to question where he would fit in the NFL. As the process goes on—as he gets measured at the Combine and at Missouri’s Pro Day—his shortcomings in speed and athleticism will become more relevant and drop him down the board.

Sam has always been a controversial figure on draft boards. I’ve seen projections from before his announcement that had him going as high as the second round and others that had him falling all the way to the seventh. Wherever he ends up, the driving narrative will be his sexuality. Expect to hear that Sam is the first SEC Defensive Player of the Year to fall out of the first round since 2005, and only the second ever to not go in one of the top two rounds. The media will ignore that this would have been the case even if he had never made this announcement. They will only see it as a sign that the NFL is not ready to accept a gay player.

I don’t have an issue with Sam’s decision to announce his sexuality. That is absolutely his choice to make, and no one other than him has any right to make judgment on it. But I struggle to think of a worse player to attempt to break this barrier. It would be much better if this was an established veteran player, or even a top prospect headed into the draft. Because Sam is a middle tier prospect with questionable NFL potential, the media will have any number of opportunities to spin the narrative as they want it.

When Sam is drafted, he will go to his new team as one of a pack of faceless rookies added to the roster. Some of the veterans will haze him, but most will probably ignore him altogether. There is nothing malicious behind this—it is the sort of thing that happens to almost every rookie to enter the league—but it is the sort of thing that could easily be spun as a sign of him not being welcomed into his team’s locker room. Had it been a veteran player making this announcement, he would have been already ingrained into the locker room in such a way that this couldn’t happen. But because Sam is rookie he will have to face the normal hurdles in joining a new team.

Sam’s development as a player will be watched by eyes across the nation. Every decent play he makes in the preseason will be held up as evidence that he deserves a major role on the team. A few great plays can turn him into a fan favorite. But the fact will remain that Sam was a mid to late round pick, and such players rarely contribute during their rookie seasons. When his coach chooses to play him only on special teams there will be backlash, and if he is cut before the season there will be calls for lawsuits and investigations. There will be no way for a coach to make a normal, rational decision in this environment.

There are a number of parallels between this situation and the media storm that surrounded Tim Tebow a few years ago. After a surprising playoff run as the starting quarterback for Denver, Tebow was traded to the Jets where he sat on the bench for the majority of the year before being cut at the end of the season. Many fans of him and his religious beliefs developed a sort of persecution complex, feeling that he was banished from the league due to his openness with his faith. They failed to recognize how terrible he was as a football player. We could witness the same sort of backlash if Sam’s career comes to a quick end as happens with many late round picks.

A gay player in the NFL has been inevitable for several years, and now we have to hope that it goes as smoothly as possible. The easiest solution would be to ask for responsibility and rationality from the fans and media, but that doesn’t seem likely. The best outcome is in the hands of several players already within the league. It has been suggested over the past few months that there is already a group of closeted players active in the NFL, a few ready to come out under the right circumstances. Many are probably waiting right now to see how this situation with Sam plays out, but if they truly want to lend him their support they should follow his example as soon as possible. I know it is up to them to announce their sexuality whenever and however they choose, but everything would go much smoother if instead of following the journey of one player through the league the media can focus on a group attempting together to break through this barrier.

Legacies

It’s the day after the Super Bowl, the perfect time to discuss legacies. Because after all, what better measure is there of an individual than how many championships his team has won? Why look at the broad sample size of his career when we can focus on a handful of games scattered across the course of his career?

I am, of course, being facetious, but I still think we need to address the fallacy of trying to construct a player’s legacy in the midst of his career. This is naturally most prevalent with quarterbacks, the most important and most noticeable player on the field. In the game yesterday we saw prime examples of two legacies unfolding before our eyes. Over the past few weeks there have been countless articles written trying to construct the narratives that will define Russell Wilson and Peyton Manning through the end of their careers and long after they retire.

The two quarterbacks are at very different points in the evolution of their legacies. Manning’s began the moment he stepped into the league as the first overall pick, and it has grown through five MVP seasons as he has established himself as the greatest regular season quarterback of all time. This season he added to that legacy, breaking the records for single season passing yards and passing touchdowns as he led the Broncos to the top seed in the conference. Wilson has followed a slightly different trail, coming in as a third round pick and surprising people by turning in a stunning start to his career. Now finished with his second season, he has already led his team to a Super Bowl victory—only the fourth quarterback to win one so early in his career. He likely has many productive years ahead of him, and he currently plays on one of the youngest teams in the league. He could easily win another two or three Super Bowls before his career runs out.

Or this could be it. Wilson could have a Hall of Fame career without winning another championship. He could have already peaked, and over the next few years we could be witness to his painful fall from greatness. Or it could be something in the middle. He could play well enough to keep his starting job and coast to another title sometime down the road. That is the essence of a young quarterback—the countless possibilities stretched before him.

It’s easier to discuss Peyton Manning. At 37 years of age, the vast majority of his career is behind him. He has maybe one or two more seasons left in him before he announces his retirement, seasons that couldn’t do much to change his already established legacy. He has won five MVPs, broken countless records, and led his teams to consistent regular season success. But he will always be the quarterback who comes up short during the postseason, and we saw that again yesterday. After eighteen spectacular games, he came out and laid a (relative) egg in the most important game of the season. Just as he fell short in 2012, just as he fell short in the Super Bowl against the Saints. Just as he fell short his first six trips to the postseason. The book on Manning has been written, and he has spent the past few seasons just rewriting new versions of it. He is a great quarterback, but he will never be a true winner like Montana, Bradshaw, Aikman, or Brady.

On that note, let’s turn the discussion to Tom Brady’s legacy. Like Wilson, Brady won a Super Bowl following his second season in the league. He then won two more over the next three seasons, establishing a well deserved reputation as a winner and a big game quarterback. In the years since then he has developed into a statistically dominant quarterback in the same vein as Manning, and the reputation as a champion has stuck with him through all that time.

So now a question: who has won a Super Bowl more recently, Manning or Brady? Most people will get it after a moment’s thought, but the initial reaction will likely be to answer Brady. After all, Manning is the one with a reputation for postseason failures. But Brady’s last Super Bowl win came after the 2004 season while Manning’s only victory came following 2006. Brady has gone eight straight playoff trips without a title, and Manning has gone six. Each quarterback has lost two Super Bowls since their last victory. Each has had poor performance on big stages while their teams have faltered. Yet because everyone made up their mind on Brady five years into his career, he remains a champion while Manning is a choker.

This brings us back to Russell Wilson. Has he now earned the same exemption as Brady by virtue of winning this championship so early in his career? Could he go the next ten years without a championship and still hold the reputation as a winner? Or does he need two more to earn that status? What will the legacy of Wilson be in a year, or five years, or ten years?

The truth is, we have no idea what Wilson’s career will look like when it’s done. And while we have a better sense of how we’ll view Manning, we still can’t say for sure what his career will look like when it’s over. Two years ago there was a legitimate chance his playing days were done, and since then he’s thrown for more than a thousand yards and nearly a hundred touchdowns and led his team to the Super Bowl. How would his legacy be different if the final chapter had been written in 2010? What have these first two years in Denver contributed to how we’ll view his career? Is it ridiculous to think that he could have more to say in the short time left before his playing days come to an end?

For one last example, let’s go back to 1997. That season we saw a matchup of two quarterbacks at very different moments in the arcs of their career. One was Brett Favre, a 28 year old three time MVP who had won the Super Bowl the previous season. He was the best player in the league in the prime of his career, and he looked ready for a dominant championship run. The other was John Elway, a great quarterback who, like Manning, had suffered through a long career of playoff failures. At that point he was 37 years old, nearing the end of his career, and had nothing to show for it but three Super Bowl defeats. The Broncos came in as double digit underdogs, and it seemed likely that he would add just another failure to his disappointing career.

We all know what happened. Elway won that year, then again the next before riding off into the sunset. Favre played for another thirteen seasons but never made it back to the Super Bowl. And what are the legacies of these quarterbacks? Because of the championship early in his career, Favre has avoided the legacy as a choker despite his later failures. Elway, however, was able to completely rewrite his legacy over his last two seasons. A quarterback who had mastered the art of falling short is now remembered as one of the great winners in NFL history.

The question I have heard far too much over the past few days is what this game will mean to each quarterback’s legacy. That’s a stupid question, and it leads only to stupid answers. Comparing legacies is a difficult endeavor, and it is made even more difficult when we make up our minds before the full picture is revealed. Save the arguments for who is better until we have all the evidence. Don’t decide anything until all chapters have been written. Someday in the future it will be interesting to look back on players like Manning and Wilson and compare them to the greats of this era, of other eras, and against each other. But each of these players still has work to do. Give them a chance to present the full arguments for their greatness.