Super Bowl Preview Part Two

Here is the second part of my overly long Super Bowl preview. This time I feature the matchup everyone (including me) is most excited about: Denver’s record breaking offense against Seattle’s dominant defense. It’s in the same format as the first part. I’ve gone through these teams unit by unit, compared them to similar groups across the league, and examined the tape to get some idea of what we might be in store for on Sunday.

Broncos Offense

Seahawks Defensive Line

Versatility and depth are the defining characteristics of Seattle’s defensive line. While they lack any individual player who could be considered among the elite at his position in the league, the unit as a whole has enough playmakers to be truly formidable. Two of their three edge rushers—Cliff Avril and Chris Clemons—spend as much time playing in a standup linebacker role as they do in as a down lineman. The other—Michael Bennett, one of the best run defenders in the NFL—can bounce inside and play defensive tackle if necessary. Inside they have Red Bryant, a defensive tackle with the ability to hold the edge on defense end, and run stuffer Brandon Mebane. This unit can attack with multiple players from multiple angles, and they will not wear down as the game winds on.

2013 Opponent Comparison: Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs feature versatility in their pass rush similar to Seattle’s. For the sake of this I’ll include pass rushing linebackers Justin Houston and Tamba Hali as part of their defensive line. While they didn’t have a third edge option as dangerous as Seattle’s, they had plenty of other players who can collapse the pocket around the quarterback. Dontari Poe cooled off after a torrid start to the season, but even when he wasn’t racking up sacks he was a menace in the quarterback’s face. Tyson Jackson put together a surprisingly competent season, adding four sacks of his own. Denver beat Kansas City in Week 11 by a score of 27-17 and in Week 13 by a score of 35-28.

Houston didn’t play in the second game between these teams, so I’ll focus my attention on the first. During this game Kansas City played almost every snap with a nickel package on the field (as most teams do against Denver) but rather than pulling out a linebacker they took a defensive lineman off the field. This meant that in essence they were playing a 4-2 with Hali and Houston lining up on the end of the line on every play. They never stacked the box, and Denver attacked the weakness of their run defense with a power running game. The Broncos normally run primarily zone schemes, but in this game they did a lot of pulling with their backside linemen, trusting those on the frontside to handle Kansas City’s undersized attack. It didn’t work particularly well, and I don’t expect to see much of that against Seattle. The Seahawks have enough versatility that they can go to nickel without weakening their run defense.

Denver did a phenomenal job in pass protection this game, preventing the Chiefs from laying a single hit on Manning. When Kansas City sent just the four men on the line, the pass rush was nonexistent. They found some success pressuring Manning by sending more complex blitzes, occasionally getting a free linebacker or a safety running unblocked. But these blitzes often left them unbalanced in coverage, vulnerabilities Manning was able to exploit. He threw a lot of quick screens to wide receivers, but don’t expect those to work against Seattle. The Seahawks specialize in shutting down such plays. Even if those won’t work, Manning has other ways of handling pressure. He isn’t known for his mobility, but he is a genius when it comes to sliding just far enough to neutralize a blitz. Seattle might be better off trusting that their front four can beat Denver’s offensive line.

Seahawks Linebackers

Seattle fields the most athletic group of linebackers in the NFL. In 2012 they spent their first two picks on a pair of athletic but undeveloped players in Bruce Irvin and Bobby Wagner. Both have since developed into starters, and Wagner has become one of the best inside linebackers in the league. He has the speed and instincts to close down any passing lanes that open up, and he covers the field from sideline to sideline against the run. Irvin has suffered some growing pains, but most of these can be attributed to his move from a pure pass rusher to a more balanced role. He had eight sacks last year but only two this year as the additions of Avril and Bennett allowed him to move to a more traditional linebacker position.

2013 Opponent Comparison: Dallas Cowboys

The linebackers that the Cowboys put out on the field are almost Seattle’s match in athleticism. Sean Lee is as good in pass coverage as any linebacker in the league thanks to his ability to cover great stretches of territory and his skill playing the ball when it is in the air. Bruce Carter is an athletic nightmare, but he is even less developed than the players Seattle is putting out there. During the game against Denver he split time evenly with Ernie Sims, a veteran who still has some of the athleticism that made him a top ten selection. The Broncos played the Cowboys in Week 5 and won 51-48.

The linebackers didn’t play a big role in the game between Denver and Dallas, and they are unlikely to play a major role in the Super Bowl. They will be responsible for handling the various crossing routes that Denver runs. They will either have to react quickly to cut down the open lanes between their zones or be ready to move up and make a sure tackle of any pass completed in front of them. Both these are areas where Seattle’s linebackers excel, and they shouldn’t have any trouble with crossing routes in this game. Denver will instead try to exploit them through the running game. Since the linebackers will be expecting the pass on most plays, Denver can attack them by giving an initial pass look before handing the ball off. Several times in the game against the Cowboys, Manning was able to get the linebackers to start their drops with a quick pump fake before handing the ball on a draw underneath to Moreno. Because Denver spreads the field with their wide receivers, Seattle’s linebackers will have very little help from the secondary if a ball carrier manages to get past the first wave of defenders. Denver can use their aggression and inexperience against them to create lanes for their running backs.

Seahawks Secondary

The Seahawks have the best secondary in the league by a comfortable margin. They have the best safety and the best cornerback playing side by side. They are long, athletic, and extremely skilled. They play as physically as any defensive backfield in the league, often pushing the limits of the referees’ tolerance for contact. Though they are known for their press man coverage, they play just as much zone. Earl Thomas patrols the middle while their cornerbacks drop into deep thirds. Richard Sherman almost always stays on the left, and they trust their other cornerbacks against any wide receiver in the league. Brandon Browner won’t play because of his illegal substance suspension, but both Byron Maxwell and Walter Thurmond have proven to be excellent replacements.

2013 Opponent Comparison: New England Patriots

Comparing any team’s secondary to Seattle’s is a laughable endeavor, but I’ll give it a shot. The Patriots’ Aqib Talib is one of the few cornerbacks in the league who can compare both in stature and skill to those playing in Seattle. Devin McCourty is an athletic safety with excellent coverage skills, a lesser version of Thomas. The rest of their secondary doesn’t compare particularly well, but Alfonso Dennard and Logan Ryan are both talented young players at the cornerback position. The Patriots don’t play nearly as much Cover-3 as Seattle (nobody does) but they do occasionally drop into Cover-2 with zone underneath. Denver lost to New England 34-31 in Week 12 and beat them 26-16 in the Championship Round.

One notable similarity between Seattle and New England is where they line their cornerbacks up prior to the snap. Against wide receivers split out towards the sideline these teams almost always have their cornerbacks playing within a yard of the line of scrimmage, even if they are responsible for a deep zone. This allows them to vary their looks, giving the appearance of press coverage even when they aren’t trying to get physical with the receivers. It also gets the cornerbacks more involved in the running game, and we saw the effects of that when Denver played New England. Most of the run plays they called came out of the spread formation, and nearly all of them were designed to go between the tackles. Because the cornerbacks play so close to the line they are able to set the edge or string out the runs towards the sideline. Denver was not able to cluster everyone inside to try to get the edge with their running backs, so they chose to spread the defense out and try to power it up the gut. This would be ideal if they had a big, physical runner like Marshawn Lynch, but their backs are best in open space or on the edge.

But all that is secondary to the biggest question of this game: can the Broncos throw the ball on the Seahawks? No one has been able to yet this season, but if there is any team capable it is the one they are facing. To beat the Seahawks’ secondary a team needs to have receivers who can win matchups when they play man and a quarterback with the intelligence and accuracy to fit the ball through the windows they present when playing zone. Denver has both, and they showed it against New England. Because they have so many offensive weapons they are able to design plays that attack both zone and man coverages. On one side of the field they will have receivers running patterns that let them create separation against defenders playing man on man. On the other they have combinations designed to overload or confuse defenders in zone. Their favorite such combination against New England involved a pair of split receivers coming together as they ran verticals downfield with one breaking off on an out route while the other continued deep. The cornerback responsible for the deep zone has to stick with the receiver on the fade, and it is left to the man covering the flat to recognize and drop beneath the out pattern. Seattle has the players capable of making such plays—Kam Chancellor intercepted a pass in the NFC Championship Game under these circumstances—but Denver has the one quarterback in the league I would most want making these decisions.

Seahawks Defense

Broncos Quarterback

Everything that can be said about Peyton Manning has already been said. Manning has been the best player in the league all season. He gets the ball out quick when the pass rush is coming, and he takes shots deep when he has receivers in single coverage. He almost always makes the correct read and the correct throw. The only defenses that have managed to slow him down are those that were able to press his receivers and generate pressure. If the defense doesn’t play tight against his receivers, he’ll throw it to the open man before the pass rush can get to him. If the pass rush isn’t coming hard, he’ll hold the ball until one of his men gets separation. During the postseason he has managed a slow, time consuming offense that has only punted once in the two games. During the regular season he showed he was capable of leading a fast, high octane unit that would run the defense ragged. Stopping him will be the toughest challenge the Seahawks have faced all year.

2013 Opponent Comparison: New Orleans Saints

Manning was the best quarterback in the league this year by a significant margin, and Drew Brees had a comfortable claim to second. He is very similar stylistically to Manning as well, a pocket passer who runs many of his plays from a shotgun spread formation. Both quarterbacks have tremendous control over their offenses, and both excel at getting the ball out of their hands quickly to avoid incoming pressure. Manning is physically larger than Brees, but both have comparable levels of athleticism. They move well within the pocket but struggle when forced out of it. Controlling these quarterbacks requires across the board discipline in the secondary and a pass rush that can force them to get rid of the ball. The Seahawks beat the Saints 34-7 in Week 13 and won 23-15 in the Divisional Round.

The Seahawks held Brees in check both times they played. He ended up with 309 yards passing in the Divisional Round, but most of those came after Seattle had built a sizeable lead. In the first half the Saints were unable to get anything through the air, and they really didn’t try. They came out in sets with multiple blocking tight ends and tried to run the ball directly at Seattle, finding some success. The Seahawks were playing the pass on every play, stacking the line with multiple pass rushers rather than letting their linebackers flow to the run. With everyone on the line it was easy for New Orleans to open holes and get their running backs to the next level. Seattle backed off into more standard alignments in the second half, allowing more passing opportunities for Brees but shutting down the running game. It is unlikely we’ll see anything like this against the Broncos. Denver won’t be bringing in heavy offensive personnel groups, and if Seattle stacks the line they won’t try to run through it. Instead they’ll try to pick it apart by throwing quick slants before Seattle’s linebackers can drop back into their zones. Seattle will be content to let them try this, trusting their linebackers to be athletic enough to cut off these throws.

In their secondary the Seahawks played much more zone coverage than normal when facing Brees, particularly when New Orleans lined up with multiple receivers spread across the field. When there is only a single receiver out wide, the duty of covering the flat falls to the outside linebacker usually lined up on the end of the line. That is a lot of ground to cover, and even Seattle’s fast linebackers often can’t get out quickly enough to undercut a quick curl by a wide receiver. When two or more receivers are split out on the same side, the responsibility for covering the flat falls to the defender lined up in front of the slot receiver. He has much less distance to cover to get out the flat, and the window to fit the ball into the widest receiver is much narrower. New Orleans managed to attack this zone by overloading the flat defender or the linebacker working in the curl zone. Both players have to cover a lot of space and a number of different routes, and well designed packages can leave one defender responsible for two wide receivers. But even if a team is able to run these plays properly, it is still a monumental task to complete these routes. The quarterback needs to see the receivers coming open at the right time, put the ball perfectly on the spot, and hope that Seattle’s defenders aren’t athletic enough to close down the window before the ball can get there. Brees had mixed success on these plays, but if there is any quarterback who can find and exploit these holes, it is Peyton Manning.

Broncos Running Backs

Knowshon Moreno is a clear secondary option in Denver’s scheme, and he has excelled in that role. He has become one of the best pass protecting running backs in the league, and when he doesn’t stay in to block he is a dangerous option as a receiver. As a runner he is smart enough to know that he doesn’t need to do a lot, that picking up even three or four yards is a great help to an intelligent quarterback like Manning. He usually finds the hole, makes one cut, and picks up what he can. It helps that he only ever carries in situations where it is advantageous to run the football. If Manning sees a defense playing against the pass, he’ll audible to a handoff. If a running play is called and he sees a stacked box, he’ll throw it out to one of his receivers. Denver’s backup, Montee Ball, is a similar player to Moreno, just with a bit more power.

2013 Opponent Comparison: Atlanta Falcons

Like Denver, Atlanta prefers throwing the ball to running it. No team in the league this year threw the ball on a higher percentage of their plays than the Falcons. Stylistically their running game is not particularly similar, though comparisons can be made between Jacquizz Rodgers and Moreno. Their main back is Steven Jackson, a much bigger and more physical runner than anyone Denver has. But Atlanta’s backs are comparable to Denver’s in their ability to pick up a pass rush and leak out as receivers. Seattle played Atlanta in Week 10 and won 33-10.

Seattle effectively shut down Atlanta’s running game when they played, and it required no great effort on their part. They kept seven men in the box on most plays, though they didn’t restrict themselves to a standard alignment. They brought their linebackers up towards the line as additional pass rushers and occasionally even pulled in a safety or a cornerback to blitz off the edge. This limited their defenders’ abilities to scrape over top of the play, and Atlanta managed a couple decent runs off quick hitting handoffs to Rodgers up the middle, the sort of runs Denver favors. Seattle will have to be more cautious in how they play against the run during the Super Bowl.

The Seahawks’ strategy for covering the backs out of the backfield varied depending on whether their secondary was in man or zone. Against man coverage they matched either a linebacker or a safety up against the running back if he went out on a route. If he stayed in to block, the defender responsible for covering him had free reign to rush the passer. These delayed blitzes caused serious problems with Atlanta’s protection schemes and Matt Ryan’s comfort in the pocket. When dropping into a zone the Seahawks were content to let their linebackers take the running back if he leaked out into their zone. This may provide a couple of opportunities for Denver. They could try swinging the running back into the flat where the zone is weak, but Seattle’s defensive ends have shown the intelligence to recognize those plays and get in the way of the passes. A better option would be to try to throw screens, but Seattle’s linebackers can usually demolish a screen play before it can get set up. If Denver is going to move the ball in this game, they will have to find some way to do it without throwing the ball to their running backs.

Broncos Offensive Line

Denver has managed to put together a strong offensive line despite losing their best player in the unit to a preseason injury. Without Ryan Clady they have struggled some on the edges, but in the interior they are among the best units in the league. Zane Beadles and Louis Vasquez may be the best guard tandem in the NFL. Manny Ramirez has gotten better as the year has gone on after being their third option at center. When their tackles are playing well this is one of the best units in the league, but there have been games in which Chris Clark and Orlando Franklin have struggled against edge rushers. If the Seahawks are going to get pressure, it will have to come from the outside.

2013 Opponent Comparison: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay had a number of problems with their line this season, but by the time they played Seattle they were getting things rounded into shape. Their two best players were their guards, and though both disappointed this season they were still the strength of their line. Donald Penn is inconsistent at left tackle, but he is a better player than either of Denver’s tackles. When they are playing well they can be a dominant unit, anchored by the strength in the middle. But they were prone to fits of incompetence during the season, especially in the early parts. Seattle played the Buccaneers in Week 9 this year and won 27-24 in overtime.

Seattle recognized where the strength of Tampa Bay’s offensive line was and chose to attack it. They lined up during the game in more 3-4 looks than normal, bringing in an extra defensive tackle and stacking their three tackles over Tampa Bay’s guards and center. This left them stout against the interior run and allowed their linebackers to flow to the ball without having to worry about the Buccaneers’ best offensive linemen getting in their way. They had trouble stopping the run when they went to four down linemen, but that was a necessary adjustment they made as the game wore on due to Tampa Bay’s success throwing the ball. For this reason, they will avoid bringing an extra tackle onto the field against Denver. If they could stack three tackles over the interior linemen like they did against Tampa Bay, they would completely shut down Moreno and the Broncos’ running game. But their primary concern will be with stopping Manning from throwing the ball, something they can’t do with three big, immobile linemen on the field.

That said, they may still try to make a 3-4 defense work. A 4-3 alignment usually limits a team to rushing the four men with their hands on the ground, but with a 3-4 the final rusher can come from any of the linebacker spots. Seattle has the athleticism at linebacker necessary to make this work. But they will still face the problem of having to find three players to play in the middle, and that’s where having a player like Michael Bennett is invaluable. He is just as strong against the run as he is as a pass rusher, and they could reasonably line him up over one of Denver’s guards. This is a similar strategy to the one the Giants used to knock off the Patriots in 2007. A 3-4 alignment with Bennett at one of the defensive end spots will allow Seattle to mix up their pressure packages while remaining stout against the running game.

Broncos Wide Receivers

Denver has the best wide receiving corps in the NFL by a comfortable margin. They had a strong case to make last year, and during the offseason they signed Wes Welker and developed Julius Thomas as a receiving tight end. Toss in Moreno as a receiving option out of the backfield, and it’s hardly surprising that Manning shattered passing records this season. Demaryius Thomas is a big wide receiver who can beat a defense over the top or with the ball in his hands. Decker is at his best as a deep threat stretching the defense, while Welker and Julius Thomas give Manning release options over the middle. They are athletic and crafty, big and shifty. This is a perfectly constructed unit of talent, and it will be the biggest test Seattle’s secondary has had to face.

2013 Opponent Comparison: Arizona Cardinals

Okay, this is probably the biggest stretch I have. But it’s hard to find any receiving corps that can match up to the talent and depth that is in Denver. Cincinnati, Dallas, Green Bay, Atlanta, and Chicago are the closest, but Seattle didn’t play any of them. As good as Seattle’s pass defense is, they haven’t had to face a truly elite group of wide receivers this year. So I am going to have to compromise and go with Arizona. The Cardinals have one truly elite wide receiver in Larry Fitzgerald and a developing young player in Michael Floyd. Andre Roberts is mildly dangerous out of the slot, but they get next to nothing from their tight end position. Despite seeing limited playing time this year, Andre Ellington has already become one of the NFL’s most dangerous receiving options out of the backfield. Seattle beat Arizona 34-22 in Week 7 and lost 17-10 in Week 16.

As good as Seattle’s secondary is, they were still a little skittish when they faced Arizona’s receivers. When they play man coverage they trust that Thomas will be able to recognize and double team any deep routes, but when they drop into their three deep zone he is responsible solely for the middle of the field. This means that their cornerbacks are often matched up alone on receivers running deep down the sideline. Against most of the teams they played they trusted their cornerbacks to win in these one on one situations, but both Arizona and Denver have receivers capable of blowing past a defensive back or winning a jump ball. Against Arizona they tried to combat this by not rolling a safety into the box. When they played man coverage they kept a two deep zone over the top, and when they played zone they had one of their safeties run to the sideline to undercut an out pattern. This allowed their cornerbacks to play more cautious over the top without worrying that the receiver will turn around underneath their soft coverage.

The downside of this strategy is that it left them weak against the run. Arizona isn’t a great running team, and Seattle was able to slow them down with their defensive front alone. But as the game wore on it became clear that they were concerned with the success the Cardinals were finding. Their safeties began to respond more aggressively on running plays, and they stopped leaving an extra defender over the top except in obvious passing situations. It helped that the Cardinals were stuck with Carson Palmer at quarterback. He threw four interceptions the second time these teams played, and Seattle could risk encouraging the offense to throw. They likely won’t make these same adjustments against Manning and Denver unless they are being absolutely gashed through the running game.

Conclusion

In this game we will see the best offense in the NFL go against the best defense in the NFL. Both units have been overwhelmingly successful throughout the season, and both are confident that they can dictate the game. Neither will change their normal strategy much for the Super Bowl. Seattle may play slightly more zone than normal, and Denver will likely spread the field even more often than during the regular season. But it will ultimately come down to which team’s best is better. Can Manning fit the ball through the holes in Seattle’s zone? Can the Seahawks win the one on one battles on the outside? In a matchup like this, there isn’t a great deal of scheming necessary.

The two players to watch are Chris Clark and Kam Chancellor. Clark has been the weak spot on Denver’s offensive line all season, but when he is able to hold up in pass protection Manning is almost untouchable. He’ll have his hands full with Seattle’s versatile pass rush, and the Broncos will need him to hold up on the edge when he is put one on one against Avril, Bennett, or Clemons. Chancellor is a bit of a wild card on Seattle’s defense. Seattle plays a fairly basic  coverage across the board, and when they drop into their three deep zone it is easy to predict where their players will go to in coverage. The exception to this is Chancellor. Sometimes he hangs out in the middle of the field ready to blast a receiver running a crossing route. Sometimes he comes up hard at the line to add an extra man against the run. Sometimes he sprints towards the sideline to try to cut underneath a receiver on a corner. Two weeks ago he intercepted Kaepernick on such a play, and he should have plenty of opportunities to make similar game altering plays during the Super Bowl.

Prediction

Normally I don’t bother with predictions. Football is a fairly random game, and the best I can truly give is around sixty percent confidence. In a game as closely contested as this, any prediction is essentially a toss up. But if I have to pick one, even with only fifty-one percent confidence, I’ll go with Seattle.

I expect that Denver will be able to throw the ball against Seattle, but they will struggle in the red zone. They will move and control the ball fairly well, but eventually the Seahawks will come up with a crucial takeaway. The Broncos will score their points, but Seattle’s offense is capable of matching them. They will exploit Denver’s banged up defense make a couple of big plays through the running and the passing game, giving them the points they need to win a high scoring game.

Seattle 31 – Denver 27

Super Bowl Preview Part One

Since the season began the Broncos and the Seahawks have been the two best teams in the league. It was never a certainty that both would reach this point, but this is one of those rare years in which we get to see the top two teams face off to decide who will become the Super Bowl Champion. I can’t recall the last time I was this excited for a Super Bowl, or the last time I genuinely had no idea who the better team was. These two squads are evenly matched—which means this game will likely be a blowout for one side or the other—and I expect it to be a fantastic football game.

During the postseason I have been going back to the film from the regular season and breaking down prior matchups between the teams facing each other. I learned some new things about the teams, shared that information with my minute but loyal readership, and even got a couple of my predictions right along the way. Unfortunately, Denver and Seattle haven’t played this season (unless you are interested in hearing about what they did in the preseason, in which case you should read this article by Chase Stuart.) So instead I broke these teams down unit by unit, found a comparable unit elsewhere in the league, and examined how these teams did against these similar opponents. Today I have broken down what I expect to see from Seattle’s offense and Denver’s defense.

Seahawks Offense

Broncos Defensive Line

Despite being ravaged by injury, Denver’s defensive line has been the strongest part of their defense the past two weeks. Their two best players for most of the season were Kevin Vickerson and Derek Wolfe, but both have been placed on injured reserve. In their absence Shaun Phillips and Terrance Knighton have stepped up their games. Phillips is no longer the dangerous pass rusher he was in San Diego, but he has developed as a force against the run. He holds the edge well and forces the running backs to cut inside into the waiting arms of Knighton, who was an absolute nightmare against New England. This unit still lacks an elite pass rusher without Von Miller, but they do a good job containing a running game.

2013 Opponent Comparison: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The defensive line of Tampa Bay is built around Gerald McCoy, one of the best defensive tackles in the league. He is as good a run defender as Denver’s Knighton and a much better pass rusher. They struggle to generate a pass rush from the edge, but Adrian Clayborn contains well against the run and doesn’t let the quarterback escape from the pocket. Neither Denver nor Tampa Bay blitzes frequency, but both run a number of stunts with their defensive lines. Seattle played Tampa Bay in Week 9 this year, eventually winning the game 27-24 in overtime.

Against Tampa Bay’s defensive line the Seahawks were content to leave their offensive tackles on islands against the pass rushers. They preferred to double team one of the defensive tackles and send their tight ends out on routes rather than bothering with protecting their quarterback from the mediocre edge pass rush. Against Denver we will likely see a similar strategy, leaving Phillips and Robert Ayers to their offensive tackles while their three interior linemen work together to contain the defensive tackles. While Tampa Bay’s defensive ends did not present much of a pass rush, the discipline they played with kept Seattle from running as many bootlegs as they would normally like. Denver’s coaches will stress that they can’t let Wilson outside, and Seattle will have to throw more passes from the pocket.

In the running game, Seattle used Robert Turbin more against Tampa Bay than in almost any other game this season. Because Tampa Bay is so strong against the interior ran, Seattle ran more tosses and sweeps to the outside, runs better suited for Turbin’s style. Because of the stakes of the game this Sunday the Seahawks may prefer to load up on their best back, but don’t be surprised to see Turbin take a couple tosses to the edge.

Broncos Linebackers

Without Von Miller the Broncos’ linebacker corps is nothing special. Their three starters—Nate Irving, Wesley Woodyard, and Danny Trevathan—are reliable but unspectacular players. They aren’t particularly athletic, and they rarely make game altering plays. The success they have comes because they play smart, disciplined football. They fill their lanes well, and they rarely get out of position. They are decent when asked to drop back into zone coverage, but they struggle when forced to play man to man against a tight end or a running back out of the backfield. They don’t come on blitzes very often and have only 4.5 sacks between them.

2013 Opponent Comparison: Tennessee Titans

The Titans put out a similarly uninspiring group of linebackers. They start journeyman veteran Moise Fokou at middle linebacker with young, undeveloped players Akeem Ayers and Zach Brown on either side of him. Brown has more potential than any of the linebackers on Denver, but he didn’t develop much in his second season after a stellar first year. Ayers was taken early in the second round three years ago, but he hasn’t become anything more than a reliable starter. These three manned the middle of an improved defense but were helped a great deal by the strength of the front four. The Seahawks played the Titans in Week 6 and won 20-13.

Tennessee held up against the run well enough when they played Seattle, but most of that was due to their defensive front. As they will likely do against Denver, the Seahawks spent many of their plays double teaming the defensive linemen instead of sending blockers downfield to handle a linebacker. This allowed the Titans’ linebackers to flow and make plays in the hole, and they managed to contain Marshawn Lynch. The linebackers were much more vulnerable in the passing game. Seattle doesn’t have the tight ends capable of beating linebackers, but they did everything they could to get their running backs and wide receivers matched up against less athletic defenders. They motioned Turbin out of the backfield a couple times. They ran quick pick plays that forced Tennessee to switch on the coverage. They tried to hit slants and curls in beneath their zone drops. And for the most part, these strategies worked. These might be more difficult to pull off against Denver, as the Broncos’ linebackers are more disciplined in their coverage, but they still lack the athleticism to keep up with Seattle’s backs and wide receivers. If Wilson sees those matchups, he will exploit them.

Broncos Secondary

Denver’s secondary has been up and down this year. They have suffered a number of serious injuries (noticing a trend?) and their best players are inconsistent. They played most of the season without Champ Bailey, and since he’s returned they have moved him into a role as a nickel cornerback in the slot. They will be without starters Rahim Moore and Chris Harris, replaced by Mike Adams and Tony Carter. Both are good players, but they aren’t at the same level as the two they are replacing. The best player Denver can put out in their secondary is Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, a free agent they signed from Philadelphia. He’s been up and down this year, but when he’s playing well he can shut down a receiver.

2013 Opponent Comparison: Indianapolis Colts

The Colts’ secondary bears a lot of resemblance to the beaten up version of the Broncos’. Their safeties are capable of making occasional plays, but they are just as likely to be exposed in coverage. At cornerback they have an athletically gifted but inconsistent player in Vontae Davis who bears a great deal of resemblance to Rodgers-Cromartie. Besides that there is not much to like in either secondary. Neither team has great depth, and when they are forced to play their third or fourth cornerback they have a major problem. The Colts play more press coverage than Denver does, but both teams play primarily man coverage with a single deep safety. The Seahawks played the Colts in Week 5 and lost 34-28.

Against the Colts the Seahawks used all the typical strategies to beat man coverage. They lined up in bunch formations and ran crossing routes and double moves, finding mixed success. Indianapolis’s best cornerbacks were able to keep up with Seattle’s receivers on most of their routes. Where Seattle found their most offensive success was with Wilson as a scrambler. Because all their cornerbacks were in man coverage, Indianapolis was not able to contain Wilson when he got out of the pocket. Seattle exploited this by running bootlegs to give him the scrambling opportunity, but it may be difficult for them to get him out of the pocket against Denver’s disciplined defense.

Against the Colts the Seahawks spent a lot of time in four and five wide receiver sets, and they will likely do the same against Denver on Sunday. They did this to force the Colts to play nickel and dime defenses, exposing their lack of depth. If they do this against Denver they can get them to play Quentin Jammer, who has been a gaping hole in their coverage whenever he’s been on the field this year. These multi receiver sets also allowed them to spread the field and empty the box, opening even more lanes for Wilson to run through. From these spread formations they ran several plays with four verticals, giving Wilson his choice of single coverage deep down the field. As long as they can protect him, they should be able to hit at least one deep pass this Sunday.

Broncos Defense

Seahawks Quarterback

Russell Wilson has been tagged a ‘mobile quarterback’ but that isn’t entirely accurate. He isn’t a player like Colin Kaepernick or Robert Griffin III, both of whom rely on their running abilities as an essential option in their games. Wilson is more like Aaron Rodgers or Andrew Luck, pocket passers with the ability to scramble if there is a lane available. He is smart in the way he runs, and he is a better passer than he is a ball carrier. His mobility is more often used behind the line to escape from pressure. In the pocket he is effective as well, but he is most dangerous when he is able to improvise.

2013 Opponent Comparison: Indianapolis Colts

I’ve already made the comparison between Wilson and Luck so I’ll stick with it. Both are highly mobile quarterbacks who excel within the pocket. They use their running abilities as a final option when the play breaks down, though Seattle calls several designed quarterback runs each game. But for both their real strength is their ability to throw the ball. They have the arm strength and the accuracy to make every throw on the field, and they have the intelligence to make the right decisions. Both threw more than twenty touchdowns and fewer than ten interceptions this season. Luck is physically larger than Wilson, but they are both built solidly enough to absorb hits and keep plays alive. They came into the league in the same year, and they will remain among the top of the league at the quarterback position for the next decade. The Broncos played the Colts in Week 7 and lost 39-33.

Denver found mixed success containing Luck’s mobility. Several times he was able to slip out of the pocket, and he ran a couple wide open bootlegs to the right. He also escaped on one notable third down scramble to pick up twelve yards and the first down. They will have even more troubles against Seattle due to Wilson’s ability to keep the ball on designed running plays. There were a few plays in which they managed to collapse the offensive line and trap him inside the pocket. They didn’t bring many blitzes, but they were able to get decent pressure thanks to Indianapolis’s dismal offensive line. They may not be able to count on the same sort of pass rush from their front four against Seattle.

Against the Colts the Broncos displayed a much more varied coverage scheme than during their other games. Usually they are content to play man coverage with a single safety deep, and that was still their most frequent and best coverage against Indianapolis. But they also played a good deal of zone, often keeping two safeties deep. The two deep zone they played likely had as much to do with Indianapolis’s abysmal running game as it did with Luck, and they will probably only keep one safety back against Seattle. I still expect them to mix in quite a bit of zone. Against intelligent quarterbacks like Wilson and Luck it is essential to present varied looks. They are smart enough to know which receivers will become open against which looks, and if they see the same coverage every play they will eventually pick it to pieces. Denver tried to prevent this by mixing up their coverages and disguising their presnap looks, often rolling a safety up into the box when the ball was snapped or dropping their corners from the line all the way back to a deep zone. Necessary as these changes were, they weakened Denver’s defense. With the stakes of this game it wouldn’t be surprising if they decided to trust their players over their scheme and stick to man coverage for most of the game.

Seahawks Running Backs

The Seahawks are one of the few teams in the league that still uses a single feature back. Lynch is a big, physical runner who specializes in making one cut and getting up the field. He breaks arm tackles and runs over undersized defenders. Even with his size and strength he has the sort of speed to break away from defenders if he reaches the second level, though he has trouble changing direction when forced to run horizontally. They run him primarily behind a zone running scheme and occasionally in a read option set. They don’t use a fullback often, and Lynch isn’t much of a threat as a receiver out of the backfield.

2013 Opponent Comparison: Washington Redskins

The Redskins use a similar one back system with second year player Alfred Morris. Morris has a bit more speed than Lynch and isn’t used as often as a receiver, but he is the same physical type of runner. Washington uses a zone scheme much like Seattle’s, though they incorporate a blocking back more often. Both teams frequently run the read option, though Seattle did it more often and with better success. Denver played Washington in Week 8 and won 45-21.

Washington’s formidable running game did not scare Denver. They were content to stay in their base alignment for most of the game, rarely rolling down a safety to stop the run. Even when Washington went into a loaded backfield with a tailback and two fullbacks beside the quarterback, Denver still didn’t bring an extra man into the box. They didn’t need to either, considering how effectively they were beating the Redskins’ offensive line. Their linebackers sometimes struggled to get through the wash of the zone blocking scheme, but their defensive line was absolutely dominant. Their ends kept backside contain to close off cutback lanes, and their tackles were able to beat blockers in one on one matchups. Seattle’s offensive line is very similar to Washington’s, and even with Denver’s injuries they should be able to win in the trenches.

The Broncos have struggled all year covering backs in the passing game, and against Washington they didn’t even bother to try. Morris was open on several occasions, but Griffin rarely looked his way. Lynch isn’t a great receiver out of the backfield, but Wilson is excellent at getting through his reads and finding the open man. If Denver doesn’t cover Lynch better than they covered Morris, Seattle will be able to pick up big plays through checkdowns. Another concern comes against play action passes. Denver’s safeties weren’t too concerned with playing the run, and Washington wasn’t able to get anything over the top. But the Broncos’ linebackers were regularly trapped by play action, opening up holes in their coverage. Denver will likely be willing to leave these vulnerabilities in order to stop the run, but they might want to pay more attention to receivers on quick screens. Washington was able to trap the linebackers inside with play action and toss the ball out to a receiver on the edge, forcing Denver’s cornerbacks to beat blockers and make a play in space. If Seattle can get the ball into Percy Harvin’s hands in these situations, Denver will be in trouble.

Seahawks Offensive Line

Seattle’s offensive line is the weakness of their offense. They have two good players in Russell Okung and Max Unger, though both have struggled with injuries this season. They’re healthy now, but holes remain across the rest of their line. Their guards are vulnerable, and they’ve begun rotating several options at left guard during the playoffs in a desperate attempt to find someone competent. San Francisco dominated them up front during the Championship Round thanks to their ability to run through Seattle’s guards at will. All that said, the unit as a whole is stronger than the sum of its parts. They are capable of blocking serviceably in both the running and the passing game, and if they play well Seattle’s offense can be hard to slow down.

2013 Opponent Comparison: Kansas City Chiefs

Much like Seattle’s, Kansas City’s offensive line is better than it looks on paper. This year they had only one starter who could reasonably be considered above average, left tackle Brandon Albert. First overall pick Eric Fisher still shows promise, but he was disappointing as their starting right tackle. Their guards and center were nothing special, but altogether this unit supported one of the strongest running games in the league. Like Seattle they run primarily a zone blocking scheme mixed with occasional power and trap plays. Denver beat Kansas City in Week 11 by a score of 27-17 and in Week 13 by a score of 35-28.

Denver was not aggressive in attacking Kansas City’s offensive line. They rarely blitzed, and they only occasionally ran stunts with their front four. They were much more concerned with standing up against the run than they were getting after the passer. They used the normal techniques for slowing down a zone running game. Their ends didn’t come too far up field or crash too hard, slow playing it from the backside to eliminate cutback lanes. Their tackles didn’t try to penetrate upfield, instead engaging with the offensive lineman in front of them and holding their ground. These were all smart decisions and worked in slowing down Kansas City’s zone attack, but they left the Broncos weak in other areas. When Kansas City ran more traditional blocking schemes they were able to knock Denver’s defenders off the line of scrimmage, and when they dropped back to pass Denver was not able to create much of a pass rush.

Despite these problems, expect to see the Broncos play with a similar philosophy against the Seahawks. They need to stop Lynch at the line of scrimmage, and they can’t afford to give him the sort of lanes to the second level that can result from aggressive penetration. As weak as their pass rush was against Kansas City, they did a good job containing Alex Smith inside the pocket. Wilson is more athletic than Smith, but if they remained disciplined they should be able to keep him corralled. They will still want to generate occasional pressure, and they will end up blitzing Seattle more than they did Kansas City. Their defense has gotten more aggressive since Miller was lost to injury, and they will likely continue that philosophy through the Super Bowl.

Seahawks Wide Receivers

Doug Baldwin complained last week about his unit being termed ‘pedestrian’ but there is no better word to describe Seattle’s receiving corps. Their two best players—Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin—missed most of the season due to injuries, leaving a collection of mediocre options in their places. Golden Tate has some nice athleticism and decent skills with the ball in his hands, but he doesn’t have the straightline speed or the technique to create consistent separation. Baldwin knows how to find holes in a defense when his quarterback escapes the pocket, but he rarely gets open in the immediate flow of play. The wild card in this game will be Harvin, who has been cleared to play after his concussion in the Divisional Round. It is difficult to know what speed he’ll be playing at and how he’ll be integrated with the offense after missing so much time, but he is the sort of difference maker at receiver that they otherwise lack.

2013 Opponent Comparison: New England Patriots

The comparisons between Seattle’s wide receivers and New England’s are easy to make. Like Seattle their best two healthy wide receivers lack elite size or athleticism. Danny Amendola and Julian Edelman both excel as tertiary options in the slot but were forced to take on a brunt of the offensive load due to injuries this season. Rob Gronkowski played the first time Denver faced New England but was out injured during the rematch. He is a difference maker in the same vein as Harvin, and his absence completely changed New England’s scheme. Without these tight ends the Patriots’ only other receiving options were a pair of raw but athletic receivers in Aaron Dobson and Kenbrell Thompkins, similar players to Seattle’s Jermaine Kearse. Denver lost to New England 34-31 in Week 12 and beat them 26-16 in the Championship Round.

It was clear that New England’s receivers didn’t intimidate Denver, and Seattle’s likely won’t either. They trusted all their corners in man coverage and kept only a single safety deep behind them. They didn’t worry about being beaten deep, not even when they brought their cornerbacks up to press at the line. The safeties played very aggressive against the run, sometimes getting out of position on play action passes. In a couple of instances New England was able to get receivers open deep, but Tom Brady wasn’t able to hit these opportunities when he had them. The Broncos will want to be more careful about giving these opportunities to Wilson, especially if he is able to extend the play with his legs. Denver’s linebackers stayed in a zone look for most of the game, hanging out in the middle of the field to take away hooks and crossing routes to ease the burden on the cornerbacks playing man on the outside. Seattle can minimize their ability to do this by spreading the field and clearing out the players in the box.

Conclusions

Seattle’s offense and Denver’s defense are the two worst units that will play in this game, but they are just as important to the outcome. Injuries have left Denver’s defense lacking in depth, and Seattle will try to exploit this by spreading the field with three or four wide receivers. Ideally this should give them matchups that even their subpar receivers can win and open up running lanes in the middle for Lynch and Wilson. Denver’s only real counter is the strength of their defensive line, and they are going to need another monster performance from Knighton if they hope to contain the Seahawks.

The two key players to watch are Percy Harvin and Shaun Phillips. Harvin has a grand total of four receptions on the season, but if he is healthy he is one of the most dynamic playmakers in the league. I can think of only one player in the league who is more dangerous in open space (LeSean McCoy) and a spread attack will provide him with plenty of open space to work in. For the Broncos, Phillips needs to play a strong, disciplined game. Since Miller went out they have put the burden of their pass rush and their rush defense squarely on him, and thus far he has held up well. He needs to come after Wilson hard on pass plays without giving him lanes to escape from the pocket. He needs to keep backside discipline on running plays while still keeping an eye out for the bootleg. If Wilson can get around the edge on this defense, he will tear them apart with his arm and with his legs. This is a tremendous burden to place on Phillips, but he might be up to it.

In Defense of the Pro Bowl

Championship Sunday was last weekend, but the Super Bowl is still not for another nine days. For the first Sunday since September, we will have to try to find a way to get through the weekend without football. I suppose that the NHL and NBA are in full swing, and if you’re the type of person who has friends you can probably spend some time with them.

Or, if you’re like me, you can watch the Pro Bowl. Because while there may not be any football on this weekend, you can find something that bears a passing resemblance. The Pro Bowl has gotten a lot of heat in recent years, and calls for it to be abolished are only growing louder with each additional season. There is some justification behind that. Many players don’t want to risk injury and choose not to attend, and those that do play take things as easy as possible. Defense is optional, tackling is frowned upon, and the two lines seem to compete to see who can give the least effort possible.

But I’m not here to write about that. We’ve all heard those arguments, and we’ve all come to accept them. And while I agree that many of these points are valid, I find myself defending the Pro Bowl’s existence. Because even though it isn’t football, it is still a reasonably fun way to kill a few hours on a Sunday night.

The NFL has instituted a number of changes this year in an effort to make the game more entertaining, and it will be interesting to see how they pan out. This season instead of dividing based on conferences the teams were selected by a pair of captains picking one after the other to put together their rosters. In case you were at all curious, here are the rosters for Sunday’s game. 

There are a number of intriguing angles we could take from these rosters, the best being rarely seen matchups of teammates playing against each other. Patrick Peterson and Larry Fitzgerald could match up head to head. Jordan Gross and Ryan Kalil will have to find some way to slow down the nightmarish creature that is Greg Hardy. Who doesn’t want to see if Robert Mathis will have the nerve to sack Andrew Luck?

The other rule changes haven’t gotten as much attention, but they could prove just as interesting. One in particular is a disastrous idea—the elimination of kickoffs—that we can only hope won’t find its way into real games (it probably will within the next ten years.) Some are minor timing issues, such as starting the clock after an incomplete pass or shortening the play clock. Another minor rule change that most won’t notice is the allowance of press coverage and Cover-2, schemes that were previously banned from the Pro Bowl.

But they have made one major change that should affect the way this game is played in a positive manner. Each quarter will begin with the ball changing hands, as it does following halftime in a normal game. Timing in the final two minutes of the first and third quarters will now be the same as at the end of the second and fourth, a two minute warning after which all out of bounds plays stop the clock. The idea behind this is to create two new opportunities for the teams to run their two minute offenses, probably the most exciting part of the game of football.

All these rule changes could help make the game more interesting, but they don’t have anything to do with the most significant draw of the Pro Bowl. Because this game is meaningless, this is the one chance a year we get to watch these players simply go out onto a football field and have fun. Every other game they have to take seriously, but with the Pro Bowl no one cares whether they win or lose. Under no pressure, these players are allowed to attempt things they would normally never consider.

Check out this play from 2011. In it you can see examples of everything that is wrong with the Pro Bowl. The defensive line doesn’t bother rushing so the offensive line doesn’t try to block. The defenders make next to no effort trying to actually bring the ball carrier to the ground. In every way this play is a disgrace to the sport of football, until the very end.

Yes, that is Cleveland center Alex Mack taking the lateral, heroically sprinting down the field, and diving into the endzone. As a former center (who actually did score a touchdown in his nine year football career) this warms my heart. In the normal game he would never have the football with a chance to run, and if he ever did he would search out the quickest way to get on the ground. But the Pro Bowl is not a normal game, and it allowed him his moment of glory.

Or take for example this next play by Phil Dawson from last season’s Pro Bowl. As a kicker, you know he spends most of his time in practice attempting ridiculous maneuvers like this, but no sane coach would ever let him try it in a regular game. Sure it was an abysmal failure, only going seven yards, but it was a lighthearted moment that showed a professional football player experimenting with his craft.

Another great moment from last season’s game: Jeff Saturday switching teams to give one final snap to his long time quarterback Peyton Manning. Both had moved on to new teams, but both will always be remembered for the long years spent together in Indianapolis. It was fitting that Saturday’s career ended how it began, snapping the ball to Manning. It didn’t matter that this was against the rules of the game, that the invitation of Saturday to the event was a joke in and of itself. It was just a neat moment that football fans everywhere appreciated.

Or how about this from last year. Who among us hasn’t wondered who would win a jump ball between Jason Pierre-Paul and JJ Watt, two of the premier young athletes in the league? Well we finally got our chance to see.

And the answer was Jason Pierre-Paul. Apparently the ability to win a jump ball has no relevance to actual ability to play defensive end.

Let’s go back to 2011 one last time. Take a look at the picture below and tell me what you see. Just a regular old touchdown by Larry Fitzgerald against a blown coverage, right? Well look closer and tell me who that is in coverage. That’s right, the AFC team decided to give wide receiver Antonio Brown a chance to cover one of the best receivers in the NFL, and it was an utter disaster. It just goes to show you that there is so much more than athleticism involved in being a successful player in the league.

The Pro Bowl isn’t real football. I think we can all agree on that. But even though it isn’t football of the same quality we expect to see on Super Bowl Sunday, there are plenty of ways to still enjoy the game. If you have the time to kill and you have the stomach to stand up to the mockery of your friends, sit down and watch the Pro Bowl this Sunday. Look past the invisible pass rush, look past the poor tackling, look past the nonexistent coverage. And just enjoy the rare spectacle placed before you for what it is.

Adaptability and Failure

My favorite thing about the NFL playoffs is the randomness involved. It seems strange to highlight this in a season that has seen the two highest seeded (and the two best) teams make the Super Bowl, but the design of the NFL playoffs makes it possible for teams that aren’t necessarily the best to emerge as champions. Since the tournament is single elimination, since every game involves both teams playing for their seasons, a play here or there can wildly affect the outcomes of a game. An unlucky bounce on a fumble can give an underdog the victory. A low percentage-high upside play can eliminate a team that has been dominant throughout the regular season.

And yet this year the top two teams have made it to the Super Bowl, somehow avoiding the random misfortune that seems to strike at this time of year. How have the Seahawks and the Broncos managed to survive to this point? I’ll get to that, but first I want to take this chance to talk about the two teams that were eliminated this weekend.

So Close…

 

I’m not a fan of the Patriots or the 49ers, so I can’t say for certain what they are thinking right now. But I have to imagine that fans of these two teams are having very different reactions to how this season went. It seems strange to say that about two teams that came in with similar aspirations and went out at the same stage of the season, but given everything that has happened I would imagine most Patriots fans will eventually come to appreciate this season while fans of the 49ers will remain devastated for years to come.

For both teams this was just another devastating defeat to add to a recent trend. Ten years ago Patriots won three Super Bowls over a span of four seasons, but since then they have advanced to five AFC Championship Games without being able to get over the hump. Four times they have been knocked out by a Manning brother, and last year they fell to the eventual Super Bowl Champion Ravens. In a way Tom Brady is fortunate (in a lot of ways, actually. He’s rich, talented, handsome, and has a gorgeous wife) that he managed to win those Super Bowls early in his career. Because since the 2004 season he has the sort of playoff résumé that would earn any other quarterback the reputation of a postseason choke artist.

San Francisco’s run of disappointment doesn’t go back as far, but they don’t have the recent Super Bowl success to fall back on either. Two years ago they hosted the NFC Championship Game and outplayed their opponents, only to lose in overtime thanks to a pair of fumbled punt returns by their backup Kyle Williams. Last season they made the Super Bowl and came within five yards of taking the lead in the final two minutes. And now this year, against division rival Seattle, they came in and outplayed their opponent only to be done in by three fourth quarter turnovers and a touchdown scored on what was essentially a Hail Mary.

Both teams have every right to be devastated based on recent history, but in New England there are mitigating circumstances. Over the course of the season the Patriots lost to injury their best defensive lineman, linebacker, and offensive lineman. An offense that was designed around a pair of physically overwhelming tight ends had to be restructured when one tight end was injured and the other was arrested. They tried to transition to a run heavy offense, but their best running back had to be taken out of the lineup due to fumbling issues. They were starting a defense of rookies and practice squad players and an offense made up of special teams contributors.

The lone constants in their team were Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, and somehow that was enough to bring them to the AFC Championship Game. Brady didn’t have his best season statistically, but he made plays when they needed made and protected the ball when a punt was acceptable. Belichick was masterful, and it’s unfortunate he won’t get many votes for Coach of the Year. He got fantastic production from a pair of Buccaneers castoffs in LeGarrette Blount and Aqib Talib. He scrapped together a quality defense despite the pieces he was forced to deal with. It wasn’t enough to get them over the top, but a spot among the last four teams alive has to be considered a success.

The 49ers have no such means of consolation, but they do have one upside to look to that the Patriots don’t: the future. In New England they probably only have another three or four years of Brady at most, and Belichick is old enough that he could choose to retire once he no longer has an elite quarterback to work with. There is some young talent on their roster to be excited about, but it is hard to see anything resembling the core of a championship caliber team. Thanks to Belichick and Brady they have had a very long championship window, but that window won’t be open much longer. Even considering the mitigating circumstances, their season has to feel like a wasted opportunity.

On the other hand, San Francisco is right at the beginning of what could be a similarly extended championship window. Jim Harbaugh is a brilliant coach just beginning a run of dominance. They have a young core of talent in place, with Patrick Willis, Navarro Bowman, Joe Staley, and Anthony Davis all locked up for multiple years on reasonable deals. And most importantly, they have a talented young quarterback in Colin Kaepernick.

Let’s take a couple paragraphs to discuss Colin Kaepernick. It is unfortunate that the lasting memories most people will have of him from this game will be the three turnovers on the last three possessions. Because for most of the game he carried the 49ers’ offense on his own. San Francisco had 308 yards on the day, 277 of them accounted for by Kaepernick’s arm and legs. Against the best pass defense in the NFL the 49ers’ receivers were not able to get any separation, but Kaepernick managed to fit throws into incredibly tight windows. His touchdown pass to Anquan Boldin was one of the most incredible displays of athleticism, accuracy, and arm strength I have ever seen. Anyone who doesn’t believe that Kaepernick can be a long term answer at quarterback was silenced yesterday.

All that said, he still has a lot of work to do on his game. People have interpreted Joe Montana’s comments as criticisms of Kaepernick, but they could better be described as accurate suggestions for improvement. Kaepernick still struggles some in making reads from the pocket, as evidenced by the first interception he threw yesterday. He has to be more aware when he scrambles in order to avoid plays like the sack-fumble by Cliff Avril. But at the end of the game, he made the play he needed to make. I’ve heard discussion about the pass that was ultimately intercepted after the tip by Richard Sherman, but I believe it was an excellent decision and an excellent throw. He saw his best wide receiver matched up against single coverage, and he took a necessary chance needing a touchdown late in the game. He threw it on a line to the back shoulder in the hope that his receiver would make a play on the ball. And if Richard Sherman hadn’t made one of the best defensive plays I have ever seen, it would have been a touchdown. If he had mistimed his jump, if he had missed with his lunge for the ball, it would have hit Crabtree right in the hands and given him the chance to get both feet down in the endzone. He made a throw that was so good that only an elite defensive play could stop the 49ers from winning the game. It is just unfortunate that he was going after one of the five players in the league capable of making that play.

Which brings me to my next topic:

Richard Sherman

 

 The controversy surrounding Richard Sherman and his antics after the game doesn’t interest me as much as the games themselves, but I’ll address it briefly anyway. I have no issue with how Sherman carried himself in the interview after the game. I have no problem with him declaring, “I’m the best corner in the game.” Because he is, and he just made one of the best defensive plays I have ever seen to send his team to the Super Bowl. He deserves all the praise given to him as well as all the praise he gives to himself.

I found this interview both amusing and refreshing. The Fox Network knew what they were getting when they decided to interview Sherman. His reputation is well known across the league, and no one could have expected him to say anything other than what he did. And he shouldn’t have to. I’ve grown tired of these monotonous, repetitive post game interviews. I’ve grown tired of these players having to work to cultivate a public perception of humility. Some say it sincerely, but many players simply spew the “I would like to thank my parents, my teammates, and God” line as a way of trying to appear humble. These players have worked their entire lives to be the best in the world at what they do, and they shouldn’t have to pretend to not be proud of what they have accomplished.

That said, I do have a problem with the way Sherman behaved immediately following his interception. For those who didn’t see, Sherman made a choking gesture towards Kaepernick then went out of his way to slap Crabtree’s butt and taunt him to his face. He later referred to Crabtree as a “sorry receiver.” I don’t take issue with a player celebrating their own greatness, but I think it’s another matter entirely to belittle an opponent.

Sherman is a great figure to the NFL because, despite what he claims, he is a villain. Villains make things more interesting and more fun. I have been openly supporting the Broncos since the Vikings and the Steelers were eliminated, and the emergence of Sherman as a villain gives me even more reason to hope for them to win. Football is much more interesting when you can get emotionally invested in a game, and because of Sherman’s actions there are a great number of people who will watch the Super Bowl with a rooting interest who would have been indifferent otherwise.

Now, on to the football.

The Final Two

 

The narrative of a team overcoming adversity and winning a championship is the heart of every great sports story. Last season the Baltimore Ravens won the Super Bowl despite losing four of their final five regular season games and changing offensive coordinators. Two years ago the Giants came from the Wild Card Round after having to win their final two games just to make the playoffs. In 2010 the Packers suffered major injuries across their team, and in 2009 the Saints managed to win the Super Bowl despite ending the regular season on a three game losing streak.

You can probably see what I’m getting at. It seems like every year there is some great adversity that strikes the team that ultimately goes on to win the Super Bowl. Sports writers fall over themselves exploiting these perfectly scripted stories. Fans give special appreciation to teams that fought so hard through so much difficulty. And there are always those who celebrate the adversity itself and give it credit for helping the team develop the toughness it needed to win the championship.

The truth is, every team faces adversity. This season the Broncos overcame injuries to major players at every level of their defense and a medical emergency that left them without their head coach for a month. The Seahawks lost three defensive contributors to suspensions and have suffered a series of injuries at wide receiver and on the offensive line. Whichever of these teams emerges victorious, expect to hear how these troubles gave them the strength and willpower necessary to win the championship.

While it makes a good story, there is no reason to draw a connection between adversity and success. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers had to deal with two separate lawsuits from the NFLPA this season, and they finished 4-12. The Houston Texans faced medical crisis with their head coach just as the Broncos did, and they finished with the worst record in the league. The owner of the Tennessee Titans died during the season, but this didn’t give them the motivation to summon a late season playoff push.

Every team faces adversity. Teams like the Broncos and the Seahawks succeed because they are better suited to handle adversity. These teams are the last two remaining because they are the best and deepest rosters in the NFL. They do a number of things very well, and even if something happens to hurt them in one of these areas they have other capabilities to fall back on. Adaptability is the key to survival in the wild, and it is the key to success in the NFL.

If you asked a casual fan to explain what made these two teams great, they would likely tell you about the Broncos’ pass offense and the Seahawks’ pass defense. And they would be very justified in doing so. Behind Peyton Manning’s MVP performance the Broncos flew past the record for most points in a single season. They set the records for passing yards and passing touchdowns this season. Seattle was similarly impressive as a pass defense. It is hard to set defensive records in this offensive era, but when adjusted for the year the Seahawks were one of the five best pass defenses since the merger. They did this despite starting four different cornerbacks and despite missing two of their top pass rushers early in the season.

These two units alone would have made them playoff teams, but they are not the reason these teams are in the Super Bowl. Smart coaches can design gameplans to attack one dimensional teams, and many of the great pass offenses and defenses in history have failed to advance deep in the playoffs. These two teams have versatility most football fans don’t realize, and it is because of this versatility that they are still alive.

As goods as Denver’s passing attack has been, it is easy to look past the productive season Knowshon Moreno just put together. He had a career high 4.3 yards per attempt on his way to his first career 1000 yard season. He was fourth in the league with ten rushing touchdowns. This was behind an offensive line that suffered a number of serious injuries on an offense that gave the quarterback the opportunity to throw the ball whenever he desired. While Moreno certainly benefited from defenses aligned to stop the pass, he still deserves plenty of credit for the team’s offensive success.

Denver’s defense doesn’t receive a lot of attention. Their best known player is Von Miller, who only played in nine games this year due to a suspension and a torn ACL. During his suspension for the first six games of the season the Broncos struggled with a pass rush, but they were dominant against the run thanks to a stacked defensive front of Derek Wolfe, Terrance Knighton, and Kevin Vickerson. They would probably have gone back to that after Miller’s injury, except they are now without Wolfe and Vickerson for the rest of the year. With all the losses to their defense (including Rahim Moore and Chris Harris in the secondary) most people expected they would have to win games on the strength of their offense this postseason. Instead, their offense has been satisfied with fewer than 30 points in each game while their defense stepped up their performance. In the first three quarters of their two playoff games they have allowed a total of three points. Defensive linemen Terrance Knighton and Shaun Phillips—both free agents last offseason—are playing at an elite level, stuffing the line against the run and getting after the quarterback on pass plays. They are without five defensive starters, yet because of their depth and versatility their defense is playing as well as it has all season.

But if we’re going to talk about depth on defense, Seattle deserves to be at the front of that conversation. Most know them for their “Legion of Boom” secondary, specifically the best safety and cornerback in the league in Earl Thomas and Richard Sherman. Because of how great their secondary is, their front seven often gets overlooked. Their middle linebacker Bobby Wagner is a fantastic player who has made multiple spectacular, game altering plays this postseason. Brandon Mebane and Red Bryant are the two unsung heroes of the defense up front. Their pass rushing trio of Chris Clemons, Michael Bennett, and Cliff Avril is so formidable that they moved talented pass rusher Bruce Irvin to a more traditional linebacker role. They have been inconsistent against the run this year, but there have been several games in which they have absolutely shut down the opposition on the ground.

Seattle’s offense is as multi-dimensional as their defense. The two most notable players are Marshawn Lynch and mobile quarterback Russell Wilson, but they were just as good passing the ball this year as they were running it. Wilson has struggled over the past month, but for most of the year he played as a dynamic pocket passer who had the ability to escape if the situation dictated it. He uses his legs more like Aaron Rodgers than Colin Kaepernick, as a backup option rather than a fundamental part of his game. If the defense contains him well and forces him to play the entire game from the pocket, he is still capable of producing at a high level. He’s been hindered somewhat by the mediocre talent in his receiving corps, but every player on Seattle’s offense has shown up at critical moments in the year. Doug Baldwin is routinely in the right place at the right time. Golden Tate is the most physically gifted of their healthy receivers. Jermaine Kearse caught a huge touchdown pass on fourth down last week against the 49ers. Their weapons aren’t anywhere near the caliber of Denver’s, but they are capable of making big plays to aid their quarterback.

These two teams have survived adversity not because they are ‘mentally tough’ or ‘teams of destiny’ but because they have the ability to adapt to the situations they are put into. The Super Bowl is being celebrated as the matchup of Denver’s pass offense against Seattle’s pass defense (and that part is going to be a lot of fun) but this game won’t be decided based on strength against strength. Even if Denver struggles to score the ball, their run game and defense can help them win a low scoring game. Even if Peyton Manning has a game for the ages, Seattle’s offense is capable of keeping up in a shootout. The Seahawks and the Broncos are the final two teams alive because they are capable of winning games in multiple ways. Don't be surprised when one of their lesser known players comes through big in the Super Bowl.