NFL Draft Order

Here are the current final draft standings. All picks later than 20 will be decided based on order of elimination from the playoffs. I've included each team's record as well as the strength of their schedules. I'll update it later tonight to remove whichever scenario is eliminated.

*Coin toss at NFL Combine will decide order of selection

If Philadelphia wins:

1.  Houston Texans: 2-14 (.559)
2. St Louis Rams (from Washington): 3-13 (.516)
3. Jacksonville Jaguars: 4-12 (.503)
4. Cleveland Browns: 4-12 (.516)
5. Oakland Raiders: 4-12 (.523)
6. Atlanta Falcons: 4-12 (.553)
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 4-12 (.574)
8. Minnesota Vikings: 5-10-1 (.512)
9. Buffalo Bills: 6-10 (.520)
10. Detroit Lions: 7-9 (.457)
11. Tennessee Titans: 7-9 (.504)
12. New York Giants: 7-9 (.520)
13. St Louis Rams: 7-9 (.551)
14. Chicago Bears: 8-8 (.465)
15. Pittsburgh Steelers: 8-8 (.469)
16. *Dallas Cowboys: 8-8 (.484)
17. *Baltimore Ravens: 8-8 (.484)
18. New York Jets: 8-8 (.488)
19. Miami Dolphins: 8-8 (.523)
20. Arizona Cardinals: 10-5 (.531)

No Such Thing as Meaningless Football

The final week of the NFL season is going to be a lot of fun. Right now there are four remaining playoff spots with ten teams still mathematically alive for them. The marquee matchups are in the NFC with the Packers playing the Bears for the NFC North title and the Eagles playing the Cowboys for the NFC East. The Cardinals-49ers games features a matchup of two teams with double digit wins, the 49ers having clinched a spot and the Cardinals needing a win to stay alive. Even the Saints-Buccaneers game presents drama, with the Saints facing possibilities ranging from the two seed to not making the playoffs at all. In the AFC the Dolphins, Ravens, Chargers, and Steelers all maintain hope of earning the sixth seed, though the scenarios are too complex for me to do anything but link to them.

And then there are the other eight games, contests featuring teams that have either clinched a playoff berth or been eliminated altogether. While some of these games still remain interesting due to seeding or draft position, no team’s season is at stake. There is no logical reason for anyone other than a fan of one of the competing teams to watch these games, but that’s never stopped me before. I pride myself on watching any NFL game regardless of meaning. I’ve sat through every Thursday Night Game so far this year, even the Jacksonville-Houston matchup a few weeks back. If there’s football on I’m going to watch it, and if I’m watching a game I’m going to enjoy it. So for those true football fans out there who will end up watching these games simply because you can’t envision a world in which you don’t, here are some things to keep your eyes on.

*Kansas City @ San Diego

Okay, this first game falls into a slightly different category. Kansas City is the only team in the NFL to have actually clinched a specific seed so far, which means they will likely be the only playoff contender resting starters this weekend. On the other hand, San Diego is still alive for the playoffs. But because this game kicks off at 3:25 while the teams they are competing against all play at noon, it’s possible that they may be eliminated before the game begins. Or it’s possible that they could play knowing they only have to win to make the playoffs. Or this game could end up deciding between the Dolphins and the Ravens for the final spot in the playoffs. Tiebreakers are fun.

Anyway, even if this game happens to be meaningless I expect to see San Diego give it their full effort. There might be some letdown once they realize their hopes of continuing the season have been crushed, but they’ll continue fighting against an indifferent Chiefs team if only for the sake of pride. The one player to keep an eye on is Keenan Allen. A rookie third round pick from Cal, Allen has been the primary target of a rejuvenated Philip Rivers since their top two receivers went down to season ending injuries. He leads rookies in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns. He should probably win Offensive Rookie of the Year, and this is his last opportunity to pull away in an incredibly tight race.

Semi-Meaningful

All these games involve teams that have already clinched a playoff berth but have yet to lock down a specific seed. A couple are still fighting for the division title, but they’ll make the playoffs either way. All of them are going against teams they should beat handily, though I expect we’ll see at least one upset in this group. Someone is bound to decide they are happy with wherever they end up and lay a dud of a game. My money’s on Carolina, but I wouldn’t put it past Indianapolis.

Jaguars @ Colts

As I said on Wednesday, the Jaguars are the most depressing team in the NFL. There is very little reason to be hopeful for their future, and they don’t even have anyone to get excited about on their team right now. Maybe Justin Blackmon could be for them what Josh Gordon is to the Browns, but right now he can’t stay sober long enough to get on the field (though you do have to give some props to a guy who can blow a .24 at 10 am.)

So I guess if you’re going to watch this game, you should watch the Colts, specifically the Colts’ wide receivers. Everybody knows about the skill and potential of Andrew Luck, but so far his stats haven’t reflected his actual performance on the field. A major reason for that is the cast that his been built around him. His offensive line has been terrible since he stepped onto the field, and once Reggie Wayne went down with a torn ACL he was left with almost as bleak a picture at receiver. TY Hilton is their best option, and while he’s a good player he isn’t a number one receiver. Watch this game and you’ll see Luck complete passes to a group consisting of Griff Whalen, Lavon Brazill, and notorious fast guy Darrius Heyward-Bey. Right now, their best option in the passing game may be checkdowns to Donald Brown, who is enjoying a surprising breakout season.

Bills @ Patriots

I covered this in my post on Wednesday, but it needs repeated. The Bills haven’t beaten the Patriots in New England since 2000. That’s twelve straight losses, and if I was going to bet I’d expect the number to go to thirteen. The Patriots still need to win to clinch a first round bye, and they have an outside shot at the top overall seed. They won’t be taking any plays off, and they should be able to beat up a mediocre Bills team.

There isn’t much interesting going on with the Bills, so I’ll draw your attention to what the Patriots have done this season. Coming into the year this wasn’t a particularly talented team, and the injuries they have suffered have been devastating. Their best defensive lineman, linebacker, tight end, and offensive lineman are gone for the season. They’ve missed games from their best wide receiver, cornerback, and running back. They’ve suffered a thoroughly mediocre year from Tom Brady. And somehow they keep winning games. An easy schedule in one of the league’s weakest divisions has helped, but there is no way this team with these injuries should be sitting at 11-4. I don’t think they have what they need to win the Super Bowl, but we should all marvel at the job Bill Belichick has done with this depleted roster.

Panthers @ Falcons

As I said above, this is a game I could see turning into a good contest. Carolina has plenty of reason to compete, with the division title and a possible shot at the top seed still in contest. They’re coming off a thrilling win against the Saints that capped off a string of ten victories in eleven games. At this point they are playing for a first round bye, but they may subconsciously decide it’s just as worthwhile to take it easy this week.

You should instead focus on a player going against them. All signs indicate that this will be the last game of Tony Gonzalez’s Hall of Fame career, which is something that should make every football fan cry a little. Gonzalez is one of only two players you could call the best to ever play his position without much dispute (the other being Jerry Rice) and the NFL will be a different place next year without him. He has caught a pass in more than two hundred consecutive games, second all time to Jerry Rice. He has more than 1300 career receptions, second all time to Rice. Even now he’s retiring not because he has lost a step (80 receptions, 800 yards, and 8 touchdowns show that he hasn’t) but because he’s ready to move on with his life. Good for him, I suppose, but it’s sad to think that tomorrow is the last time we’ll ever get to see Gonzalez play football.

Rams @ Seahawks

This game has meaning for the Seahawks, who are looking to clinch the division and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. It also gives them a chance to reclaim some pride after losing at home last week. They’ll play their starters, and they’ll probably win. This is a really good football team.

If you must watch this game, watch it for the Rams’ defensive line. Chris Long has been quietly spectacular for years, which is something you don’t often say about a former second overall pick. His ability to rush the passer and stuff the run makes him one of the most underrated players in the NFL. Michael Brockers is also young and talented, but the player to really keep your eye on is Robert Quinn. Yet another incredible defender from the 2011 draft, Quinn leads the NFL with 18 sacks on the season. He has five in the past two weeks, including a pair of sacks that forced the Saints to bench their starting left tackle for a third round rookie. He dominated the first matchup against the Seahawks, accruing five tackles and three sacks. This time, however, he has to go against one of the best left tackles in the league in Russell Okung. That’s the matchup to keep your eye on during this game.

Broncos @ Raiders

Like Seattle, a win by Denver would clinch home field advantage throughout the playoffs. And while that’s certainly important, much more attention is going to the records they are set to break. Peyton Manning has already passed Tom Brady for the most touchdown passes in a season, and in this game he has a chance to set a mark that will be difficult to top. He also needs only 266 yards break Drew Brees’s single season record. The offense as a whole needs 18 points to become the highest scoring in NFL history and 28 to be the first to ever reach 600. Against this Raiders defense, it would be a surprise if they didn’t reach all these marks by halftime.

If you try to watch the Raiders, be prepared to see a team that has quit on the season. This was a lost year from the start as GM Reggie McKenzie attempted to clear the terrible contracts he had inherited from Al Davis’s final years at the helm. A few unlikely wins early in the year couldn’t change the course of this season. The only player to keep your eye on is Terrelle Pryor. Early in the season Pryor was their best player on offense, but he fell apart midway through the year partially due to injuries. He was replaced by Matt McGloin who followed a similar look-really-good-then-look-thoroughly-mediocre trajectory. But if Pryor is healthy, he is one of the most exciting players in the NFL. It will help that he’ll be going up against a Broncos defense adjusting to the loss of their best player and likely uninterested in doing anything other than watch the offense win the game.

Utterly Pointless

These games mean nothing. There are no playoff implications on the line and no records that may or may not be set. Draft position is the only thing to be competed for, and these games don’t even offer much towards that. In all likelihood, at least five of these teams will be looking for a new head coach in a week’s time. Maybe six, if the Giants and Tom Coughlin go their separate ways.

Texans @ Titans

The only thing at stake in this game is the first overall pick, and I don’t see Houston losing control of that. They didn’t lose thirteen straight games only to screw it up the last week of the season. Incidentally, the Titans are the last team they beat, with an overtime victory in Week Two that served as a coming out party for DeAndre Hopkins.

The Titans have no reason to try, but they will probably still pull out a decent effort. This is likely Chris Johnson’s last game in Tennessee, so expect him to have either 170 yards or 17. I don’t see him having just an average game. The player to really keep your eyes on plays for Tennessee’s defense. Jurrell Casey has been one of the best pass rushing defensive tackles in the league this season, and it’s a shame he wasn’t able to make the Pro Bowl. Whoever plays quarterback for Houston should expect to face a lot of pressure coming up the middle.

Giants @ Redskins

I’ve struggled to find any reason for anyone to watch this game. Perhaps Rams fans will be interested, considering a Redskins loss guarantees the selection being sent to them is in the top two. But even if the Redskins win, they’re not going to fall outside of the top five. Maybe you want to see the last performance by the carnival that has sprung up in Washington, but as long as Daniel Snyder is owner I doubt it will be going anywhere. There’s not even the excitement of RGIII playing, since he’s been benched for the blandness that is Kirk Cousins.

I suppose you could watch it to see London Fletcher, who like Tony Gonzalez has announced he will retire after the season. But unlike Gonzalez, Fletcher has lost a step this season, and he has recently made comments suggesting he may be backing off retirement talk. Also, if you’re going to watch Fletcher you will have to watch the Redskins defense. Even I would balk at that prospect. Maybe you could watch this game out of pure masochistic thrill, or to see who screws up more often in the matchup of Eli Manning vs DeAngelo Hall.

Detroit @ Minnesota

In this game you have a pair of superstar players in Adrian Peterson and Calvin Johnson, both the best in the league at their positions. They haven’t matched last season’s remarkable achievements, but this game should allow them to cap off successful seasons…wait, Peterson is listed as doubtful and Johnson is questionable? Then why the hell would anyone want to watch this game?

I guess it’s the last that will ever be played in the Metrodome, and that counts for something. This is a stadium that has hosted a Final Four, several World Series games, and a Superbowl. This is a stadium that has seen the two longest plays in NFL history, one of the longest pass plays in NFL history, and the only 99 yard rushing touchdown in NFL history. I’ve attended thirteen regular season games in this stadium, including Adrian Peterson’s record setting 296 yard rushing day. I have a tremendous emotional attachment to this stadium, and even I have to admit it’s a piece of shit. In the last game I went to, security threw out three fans (two wearing Eagles jerseys and one in a Giants shirt) for “relieving themselves” in the upper deck. And pretty much every person I’ve recounted this anecdote to has responded with, “Makes sense. The Metrodome is pretty much one giant toilet.” It’s been a good home to the Vikings for more than thirty years, but it’s time to move on to bigger and better things.

Christmas in the NFL

For those of you who aren’t aware, today is Christmas. In the spirit of gift giving, I have gone over each team in the NFL and given them the one present they need more than anything else. This present could be a player, a coach, or something significantly less tangible. I don’t do this because I want attention, or because I’m just trying to kill time sitting around home during Winter Break. I don’t do this to see the smiles on the faces of football fans everywhere as they receive these gifts. I do this to see those smiles vanish when I reveal that this is all fake and I don’t actually have the power to give gifts to football teams (yet). I do this because I want you all to bask in the wonderful vision of what life could be before coming crashing back to cruel reality.

Merry Christmas.

The first four teams I cover will all be receiving a quarterback. Plenty of teams need help at the quarterback position, but these four could be playoff contenders if they just had a reliable option under center.

Minnesota Vikings: Quarterback

I’ve already written about the Vikings and their quarterback situation at length here. Suffice to say, they could be a good team if they had one. Christian Ponder is gone after this season, and it remains to be seen if Josh Freeman or Matt Cassel will be back. They will likely bring in a new coaching staff as well, and new staffs often like to choose a quarterback to be “their guy.” It’s hard to say who will be starting for them next season and even harder to know if it will be an improvement.

Tennessee Titans: Quarterback

The Titans aren’t a team to get too excited about, but they have some promise. Their defense was atrocious in 2012, but Jurrell Casey and Alterraun Verner have developed into legitimate stars this season. On offense they have the potential for a strong offensive line and the beginnings of a very good receiver corps in Justin Hunter and Kendall Wright. But still, they face a problem in Jake Locker. He has suffered a number of injuries over the course of his short career, but right now that’s working to his favor. When he’s been healthy he hasn’t been any better than Christian Ponder, who the Vikings have already given up on. Now the Titans are facing the question of whether they’ve seen enough of Locker to be sold on his mediocrity. Preliminary indications are that they probably have. There are rumors that they will cut Chris Johnson to clear up cap space in order to make a move for Jay Cutler when he becomes a free agent at the end of the season.

Houston Texans: Quarterback

This team is not as bad as their record indicates. They’ve changed very little from the team that won a playoff game last season. Some of their players have been injured, but most of their issues this season have been the result of a team that has simply given up. When Matt Schaub had that insane, illogical string of games with an interception returned for a touchdown, the fans and the players all understood that his time in Houston was coming to an end. So they did as their division rivals in Indianapolis did two seasons ago. They bottomed out, and now they will be in position to draft the best quarterback available. They will certainly return to the playoffs sometime in the next two seasons.

Cleveland Browns: Quarterback

This team could be very intimidating if they obtain a quarterback. Their defense is already one of the best units in the league, and it will only get better as players like Joe Haden, Phil Taylor, and Barkevious Mingo develop. On offense they have two legitimate receiving options in Josh Gordan and Jordan Cameron. They still can’t run the ball worth a damn, but their passing game will be good enough to give them a successful offense. Assuming they lose this weekend to the Steelers they will end up with a top five selection. If they need to they can use the additional first round pick they acquired from Indianapolis to move up and take the quarterback of their choice.

Carolina Panthers: Wide Receiver Corps

Cam Newton is a very good quarterback. The Panthers have an incredible defense. They have several reliable options at running back. Their offensive line is solid. And their receiving corps is…Steve Smith. I can’t really think of any other words to describe it. And now that Smith is hampered by a knee injury, who the hell is Newton supposed to throw to? The NFL’s first ever fat running back Mike Tolbert? Former rapper G-Reg (I swear I did not make this up) Olsen? What wouldn’t the Panthers give for a young, talented wide receiver?

What’s really sad is that they had a chance at one. Early in the season, before he exploded into the second best receiver in the league, the Browns were desperately trying to trade Josh Gordon due to character concerns and a desire to tank. They were reportedly asking for a second round pick in exchange. How did Carolina not do that? How did anyone not do that? How is Josh Gordon still on the Browns when they would have given him up for a measly second round pick?

You know what? Screw what I said above. The Browns already got their present this year.

Detroit Lions: Time Machine

Let’s go back six weeks. The Lions had just defeated the Bears to move themselves to 6-3. The Bears fell to 5-4 and gave the Lions the tiebreaker. The Packers were 5-4 as well and looked to be without Aaron Rodgers for at least two more weeks. The Lions were set up in prime position to win their first division title since 1993.

And they choked. The Lions have lost five of their past six games, and with a week to go they are mathematically eliminated from playoff contention. Jim Schwartz will lose his job next week, and there are already people throwing around the “bust” label when discussing Matthew Stafford. What the Lions need is a time machine, a way to go back six weeks and start over, to put their season right.

Or, alternatively, they could go back farther and not hire Matt Millen. Or they could kill Hitler. The choices are endless. This is actually a pretty awesome gift.

Cincinnati Bengals: A Bunch of Stupid Owners

The Bengals have built an impressive team over the past few years. They’ve managed to hold together an elite defense despite injuries to two of their best players, and they have surrounded Andy Dalton with an impressive array of talent on offense. Dalton probably isn't good enough for them to win a title this year, but there are plenty of reasons for high hopes in the years to come.

This Christmas I am going to give them even more reason to hope. Right now they have one of the best coordinator duos in the league in Mike Zimmer and Jay Gruden. Gruden has been around since 2011 when they drafted AJ Green and Dalton with their first two picks, and Zimmer has been their defensive coordinator since 2008. Yet somehow neither of them has managed to get a head coaching job. It’s perplexing, but it’s also the gift I’m giving the Bengals this year. By next week there will be at least a half dozen teams searching for a head coach, and I’ll see to it that all six are stupid enough to overlook these excellent candidates.

Kansas City Chiefs: Dwayne Bowe

Kansas City’s offense is Jamaal Charles. That isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Charles is a fantastic player and should be in the top five for MVP runner up consideration. But if Charles gets hurt, or if some defense figures out how to take him away, it would be catastrophic for Kansas City’s hopes. This is why I’m giving them a top quality receiver in Dwayne Bowe.

For those of you who have forgotten, Bowe actually still plays for the Chiefs. He’s stuck in the worst season of his career and has contributed very little to their offense. He’s taken a great deal of heat for this, but it isn’t entirely his fault. Alex Smith is a safe, reliable option at quarterback, but he has a habit of neutralizing top wide receivers. No one realized just how good Michael Crabtree was until Colin Kaepernick took over in San Francisco. He’s gotten them this far, but the Chiefs won’t be able to rely on checkdowns and crossing routes forever. Sooner or later they are going to have to find a way to develop a down the field passing attack.

Green Bay Packers: Quarterback Who Isn’t a Pussy Functional Collarbone

Sorry, I had to. Anyway, Green Bay has been a completely different team since Aaron Rodgers went down. The combination of Wallace, Flynn, and Tolzien (or as I saw Bill Barnwell at Grantland refer to it, the WTF Era) has been just suitable enough to keep the Packers alive thanks to Detroit’s cataclysmic collapse. Even without Rodgers, they have hope of beating the Bears next weekend and winning the NFC North. But to have any chance of advancing deep into the playoffs, they need their quarterback. I was initially going to keep it cheap and give them a stick of glue, but after extensive medical research I concluded that wasn’t practical. So instead I decided to splurge and give the Packers an actual, intact human collarbone. Don’t ask me where I got it, but don’t expect to see that guy with the Cheesehead appear in anymore State Farm Commercials.

Denver Broncos: A New ACL

The Broncos are probably the only team in the league that would be disappointed this season with anything less than a Super Bowl victory. Unlike Seattle, San Francisco, Cincinnati, and Carolina, their window of opportunity is very tight. If they don’t win this year, they may only have one or two more seasons. Unfortunately, Von Miller just went down with a torn ACL. I’ve already covered what he means to their defense, and losing him will put them in a major hole during the playoffs. The loss now is worse than earlier in the season, as they are missing two of their top defensive linemen in Derek Wolfe and Kevin Vickerson. They can still win any game on the strength of their offense, but if that offense falters they will likely lose.

Seattle Seahawks: Drug Test Exemption

In order to figure out what Seattle needs, let’s look at what they already have: a young franchise quarterback on an absurdly small contract, a quality offensive line to protect him, a great running back, dominant special teams, a strong rotation of pass rushers, the best secondary in the NFL, a stadium designed to reflect noise back towards the field, and a state that’s legalized marijuana for recreational use. You know what? Screw Seattle. Why do they deserve a present? They already have everything.

But this is America, a nation seemingly built on the principle that the rich can only get richer. So for this Christmas, I will give Seattle one year without having to worry about any league tests for performance enhancing drugs. No more having to claim all your players are on Adderall to avoid admitting they were suspended for steroids. No more having to roll your fourth cornerback onto the field because two of your top three are suspended. No more agents making nonsensical threats to sue the league without any reasonable grounds. Congratulations, Seattle. You now have everything.

Baltimore Ravens: A New Contract for Joe Flacco

You would almost feel bad for the Ravens, if they weren’t the defending Super Bowl Champions. All last year they played the waiting game with Joe Flacco, knowing he was in the last year of his contract yet unwilling to give too high an offer to a quarterback who had been inconsistent throughout his career. Unfortunately (not that I think they’ll complain) Flacco ended last year on an absurd playoff run in which he threw 11 touchdowns and no interceptions and led the team to a Super Bowl victory. This earned him a $120 million contract, far more than he is worth. They had no choice in the deal, and now they have hamstrung themselves for the next five seasons. This year for Christmas, all they could really want is a clean slate. If they had been able to wait and renegotiate after this season, they would likely have saved a huge sum of money on the contract.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Healthy offensive line

The Steelers’ offensive line has been dreadful the past few years, but it’s not as if they are lacking for talent. Maurkice Pouncey has made multiple Pro Bowls, and David Decastro has established himself as one of the best guards in the league this season. They have a pair of high selections in Mike Adams and Marcus Gilbert who have shown flashes since they’ve come into the league. The only problem is that they cannot stay healthy. Over the past three seasons the Steelers have started 24 different offensive line combinations, mostly due to an absurd string of injuries. Since their line has stabilized this season, they have allowed only six sacks in their last six games. This is a very young and very talented group, and if they can stay healthy and build some cohesion they have the potential to be the strength of the offense going forward.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Exorcism

A few weeks ago I would have put Tampa Bay in the quarterback category. This is a very talented team who could push for playoff contention over the next couple years even without a competent quarterback. Adding an elite talent could make them a Super Bowl contender. But Mike Glennon has looked solid over the second half of the season, and I don’t think any Buccaneers fans would be upset if they went into next season with him as their starter.

A much more pressing concern is with the human embodiment of Satan that walks in their midst. Greg Schiano is evil incarnate, a man without a single redeeming quality. He has the personality of Bill Belichick with the coaching abilities of Romeo Crennel. He sees nothing wrong with denying player time toward his pension because of an infection suffered at the team’s facilities. He takes issue with his players helping an opponent off the ground after a play. He banned former Super Bowl MVP Dexter Jackson from bringing kids to Buccaneers practice as part of charity. He motivates his players by threatening their families if they don’t play their hardest. Okay, I made that last one up, but that doesn’t mean it’s not true. A devil walks through the halls of the Buccaneers’ facilities, and it is time for that demon to be exorcised.

Miami Dolphins: An Offensive Line

The Dolphins have nine offensive linemen listed on their roster, but I see no evidence of them when watching their offense. Through fifteen games Ryan Tannehill has been sacked 58 times, good for tenth most in a single season in NFL history. Joe Flacco is second in the league having been sacked 46 times. When Tannehill has managed to remain upright, he has actually shown flashes of being a promising quarterback. Maybe once he has an offensive line to protect him and give him a running game, he can develop as one would expect of a quarterback taken in the top ten of the draft.

New Orleans Saints: Home Field Advantage

Much has been made of Seattle’s home field advantage this year, but you could make a strong case that home field is even more important to New Orleans. Seattle is a great team regardless of where they play. New Orleans is a dominant team at home but merely average on the road. At home they average nearly 33 points per game. On the road the most they have scored this season is 27. They have already missed out on the chance to have home field advantage throughout the playoffs, but if they win and the Panthers lose they will clinch the two seed. If Seattle then loses in the divisional round, New Orleans won’t have to step outside the Superdome on their way to the Super Bowl. And who knows, if the weather is looking bad in New Jersey maybe they can convince the NFL to move the Super Bowl to New Orleans. I’m sure nothing could go wrong in the Superdome for the big game.

Jacksonville Jaguars: Three year coma

There is nothing to like about this team. Their best player is Maurice Jones Drew, and he has hit that wall most running backs meet late in their career. Their most promising young player is Justin Blackmon, and he can’t stay sober long enough to see the field. Their first round pick from last season was unimpressive before going on injured reserve, and their first round pick from 2011 was Blaine Gabbert. Even if they grab a young quarterback in this year’s draft there is no reason to believe they have the talent around him to turn things around.

This is a gift meant for the fans rather than the team itself. I’m going to put every Jaguars fan into a coma and awaken them three years from today. It will be neat, quick, and utterly painless. There won’t even be a noticeable drop in attendance at their games. They will wake up having no recollection of three miserable seasons, but they will find a team loaded with talent and primed for a lengthy run of success.

Or they may still be terrible. There’s no reason to have faith that this team will improve.

Oakland Raiders: 49ers Tickets

The Raiders roster is every bit as bad as the Jaguars. Of their first round picks in the past ten seasons, the best is probably Darren McFadden. Al Davis deserves every bit of respect we could give to him for what he accomplished over the course of his career, but by the end of his life he was doing more harm than good. This team is also looking at a lengthy rebuild.

But unlike Jaguars fans, the Raiders have an easier solution than spending three years in a coma. All they have to do is hop on a train and ride it across the bay to San Francisco, where the 49ers have built one of the best teams in the league. They don't even have to wait until next season. The 49ers will continue their season into January, a month most Raiders fans have only vague memories of.

San Francisco 49ers: Rams Victory Over the Seahawks

With one week remaining in the season, no NFC division has been clinched yet. Half the teams still remain alive for a division title, and of them I don’t think there is any team that needs it more than the 49ers. Some like the Eagles, Cowboys, Packers, and Bears need to win the division just to make the playoffs, but these teams have slim hopes of winning a championship even if they do make the postseason. The 49ers are in the playoffs no matter what, but I can’t see them making the Super Bowl unless they have home field advantage. One way or another they will have to go into Seattle, a place where they’ve been outscored 71-16 over the past two seasons. To win the division they need to beat the Cardinals, but they also need the Rams to knock off the Seahawks. My gift to them is the ability to control their own destiny.

Buffalo Bills: Victory in New England

The Bills have the longest current playoff drought of any NFL team. The last time they made the playoffs, Wade Phillips was their coach and they lost infamously on the Music City Miracle. I am tempted to end their suffering, but it would be unfair to put this team into the playoffs (only mildly more unfair than putting a 9-7 team in over the Cardinals, but I’ll deal with that later.) Instead I am going to give them something almost as rare as a Bills playoff berth: a Bills victory in New England.

The last time the Bills won in New England, the game featured a quarterback matchup of Doug Flutie vs Drew Bledsoe. Their fans deserve a win, and there is no time better than right now. If they beat New England and either the Bengals or the Colts win, they'll knock the Patriots out of the number two seed and force them to play again next weekend. It isn't as sweet as a playoff berth, but I'm sure the Bills fans will take it.

New England Patriots: Stickum

The Patriots are second in the league this season in dropped passes. They've cycled through Julian Edelman, a pair of rookies, a Gronk, an injury prone slot receiver, and a Hoomanawanui as their receiving options. Fortunately these inconsistencies have taken criticism away from what has been a less than stellar season by Tom Brady. But they certainly haven't helped the passing game either. The Patriots continue to win despite these problems and despite an overwhelming number of injuries, but it's hard to see how they can succeed on offense going forward. The Stickum should at least help their receivers hang onto balls. It's against the rules of the NFL, but that's never bothered Bill Belichick before.

Washington Redskins: New Owner

Over the past ten years we have witnessed an extraordinary race between Dallas, Oakland, and Washington for the worst owner in the league. And at long last, it appears that Daniel Snyder has emerged victorious. He’s turned a promising season into a carnival, and it’s only going to get worse once he fires Mike Shanahan and kicks off a series of lawsuits. Unfortunately for the Redskins, a bad owner isn’t as easily dealt with as a bad player or a bad coach. There is no way to fire the owner, no way to get rid of him unless he dies or sells the team. Fortunately, Santa Claus is not bound by the rules of the NFL. So long, Daniel Snyder. I don’t know who I’ll replace you with, but it doesn’t really matter.

Dallas Cowboys: Restraining Order

I said above that Daniel Snyder has clinched the title of worst owner, but Jerry Jones isn’t about to give it up without a fight. There is a reason the Cowboys have gone from one of the league’s premier franchises to an absolute joke, and that reason is Jerry Jones. He has chosen to make himself the face of the team, naming himself GM despite knowing almost nothing about football. He addresses the media more than any other owner, and he even put out a rap video.

But I’m going to hesitate before giving the Cowboys a new owner. After all, Jones did manage a team that won three Super Bowls in a four year span. They can be successful with him as the owner, just as long as he stays in the background like he did when Jimmy Johnson was the coach. Instead I’m giving the franchise a restraining order against their owner. He will not be allowed to make any personnel decisions beyond naming a new GM and a head coach. He will not be allowed to discuss the team with the media. He will still be allowed to attend games, but the television networks will only be allowed to show him three times each game.

San Diego Chargers: Defense

If I had a vote to give for coach of the year, it would go to Mike McCoy. An offensive guy, McCoy was brought in to revitalize an offense that had become listless under the guidance of Norv Turner. McCoy has succeeded in every way imaginable. Philip Rivers was a disaster the past couple of seasons, and this year he’s been one of the five best quarterbacks in the league. Danny Woodhead has been a fantastic addition, and Keenan Allen will likely be the Offensive Rookie of the Year. Unfortunately, McCoy hasn’t been able to do anything for the defense. Due to injuries they haven’t had any hint of a pass rush this season. Only the Jets and the Texans have fewer takeaways. They’ve managed to limit the damage as much as possible and make a run towards the playoffs, but this could be a great team if they had a capable defense.

Indianapolis Colts: Quality Opponents

This season the Colts have beaten the Broncos, Chiefs, Seahawks, and 49ers and have lost to the Dolphins, Chargers, and Rams. Their other victories have included single score triumphs over the Raiders, Titans, and Texans. This is a team that plays to the quality of their competition. In order to be successful they need to face the best competition available. Fortunately, this is an instance where I don’t have to do a lot of work. They’re already in the playoffs and will only have to face tough competition on their way to the Super Bowl. They do have to be careful though. If they win this week and the Bengals lose, they will end up moving up to the third seed where they’ll have to play one of the Dolphins, Ravens, Chargers, or Steelers.

Chicago Bears: Tackling Skills & Drills

The Bears’ run defense is probably some sort of performance art. In their past ten games only Cleveland has failed to reach a hundred yards rushing against them. They ended up with 93. The Bears are allowing 5.4 yards per rush. Since 2002 only seven teams have allowed more than five yards per rush over the course of the season, none higher than 5.3. While the most important thing is to get healthy, it can’t hurt to brush up on the fundamentals. Specifically, they should try tackling the player with the ball. That's a good place to start.

Philadelphia Eagles: Sustainability

Here we have a team that burst onto the scene early in the year with an innovative and explosive offense. There were a few down weeks after that, but in the second half their defense came together and carried them into a do or die matchup against the Cowboys in Week 17 with the NFC East title on the line. They are led by a young quarterback who has succeeded in a unique but simple offense by avoiding turnovers at an unsustainable rate.

Did it sound like I just described the 2013 Philadelphia Eagles? Well I did, but I also described the 2012 Washington Redskins. The similarities between these two teams are striking, and the Eagles have to hope that the similarities will end when the regular season does. Because we all know what happened to the Redskins this season. RGIII got injured, opposing teams made adjustments to their schemes, their defense regressed, and they were not able to avoid turnovers in the same way they did last year. Hopefully the Eagles won’t have to deal with the same injuries and toxic situation as the Redskins, but everything else could happen in the same way next year. Foles could start throwing interceptions, their defense could fall to pieces, and opposing coaches might figure out a way to slow down their option attack. They have to hope that their success is more sustainable than their division rival’s.

Arizona Cardinals: A Move to the AFC

The Arizona Cardinals are currently 10-5. They’ve won seven of their last eight, including a blowout victory over the Colts and a win in Seattle. Right now you could make the claim they are playing as well as anyone in the league. Yet even if they win next week and finish 11-5, they would need the Saints to lose at home to the Buccaneers in order to make the playoffs. Not going to happen.

So this year I’m going to give them the best gift any fringe NFC playoff team could hope for: a move to the AFC. Four teams are currently competing for the last Wild Card spot in the AFC, all with records of either 8-7 or 7-8. Even if the Cardinals lose this weekend, they will still wind up with a better record than any of these teams. So congratulations to the Arizona Cardinals, one of the 2013 AFC Wild Card Teams.

New York Jets: Move to Wyoming

The Jets are a decent team with a promising future. Between Sheldon Richardson and Muhammad Wilkerson they have the foundation for a dominant defensive line, and Dee Milliner hopefully won’t be as terrible in the future as he was this year. The picture is a bit grimmer on offense, but with a good draft this year they may be able to build around Geno Smith. What they don’t need is the attention that comes with being in New York City (New Jersey.) They need a couple years to just lay low, stay out of the media, and let their team develop. They don’t need every mistake to be turned into a national controversy. They don’t need coaches followed by paparazzi. Wyoming would be the perfect place for them to stay out of sight until after they’ve weathered the rough years. Beautiful scenery too.

St Louis Rams: A Top Three Pick

The Rams are building something extremely exciting. They have top notch talent at every level of their defense highlighted by Robert Quinn, potentially the league’s Defensive Player of the Year. Zach Stacy has been a surprise contributor on their offense, and once they fire Brian Schottenheimer they will hire an offensive coordinator capable of getting the ball to Tavon Austin. All they really need is one more elite talent, a chance to pick in the top three of the draft this season.

Well congratulations to the Rams! I don’t even have to give them a gift, because the Washington Redskins already have. Thanks to the trade that led to the pick of Robert Griffin III, the Rams control the Redskins’ pick this season. Currently that selection is number two overall, but it could rise as high as number one or fall all the way to number three. With that pick the Rams will have so many choices—a trade, an offensive lineman, another pass rusher. They could even take a quarterback and cut Sam Bradford loose, saving ten million dollars off their cap in the process.

Atlanta Falcons: Another Year of Tony Gonzalez

This is actually a pretty selfish gift. All football fans should want to see Tony Gonzalez come back for another year, or another five years. He is the greatest tight end in NFL history without much competition. He is second all time in receptions, not just among tight ends but among all players. Even now he is still a dominant force on the football field, and I don’t doubt he could continue to play as long as he desired. He came back this season because he wanted to be part of a team pushing for the Super Bowl, but the Falcons were derailed by injuries. He deserves one more chance to make the run. The NFL deserves one more year of Tony Gonzalez. And I guess it would be pretty good for the Falcons too.

New York Giants: Educational Picture Book

This is a gift specifically for Eli Manning, but also a gift for all Giants fans. It is an educational picture book that I hope will clear up some of the issues he’s had this season.

Featuring such helpful images as:

Merry Christmas, Eli Manning. And Merry Christmas to the entire NFL.

Tanking in the NFL

Tanking is a major problem in professional sports. In order to keep as level a playing field as possible, all major North American professional sporting leagues have instituted a draft of entering players with an order determined by inverting the finish from the previous regular season. This is designed to allow the worst teams to get the best players so they can rebuild rather than continuing a downward spiral that leaves us with only a few elite teams lording over the mediocrity of the rest of the league. For the most part the system works, allowing teams to go from laughingstocks to legitimate title contenders in the span of a few years.

Tanking is a flaw in this design. For teams that believe they don’t have a chance of competing for a championship, this system gives them incentive to lose games in order to better their draft position. This strategy is most prevalent in the NBA, and it has reached new heights this year with the potential upside of the 2014 draft class. Because of the minor league system, tanking is less of an issue in the NHL and the MLB. It still happens, but there are fewer immediate gains from having a terrible season. All but the best NHL prospects start in the minor leagues or go to college, and it is an extraordinarily rare MLB prospect that doesn’t spend at least a full season in the minor leagues. This means that players at the top of the draft are less sure prospects and promise smaller returns in the immediate future.

But what about the NFL? In the past few years the roles of rookie players have expanded greatly. Gone are the days where a player can be put aside for two or three years to develop before taking over a starting role. There isn’t even a lottery system as there is in the NBA, strengthening the incentive to roll over for a top selection. Why don’t we hear as much about tanking in the NFL?

There are several reasons why tanking is not prevalent in the NFL. First and foremost, there is less incentive to tank because one player is not as significant to the fortunes of a team. In the NBA we only have to look over the past few seasons to see how much an elite player can mean to a franchise. In 2010 the Cleveland Cavaliers finished with a record of 61-21, the best of any team in the NBA. During the next summer they lost LeBron James, and the following season they finished with a mark of 19-63, the second worst record in the league. Teams believe that if they can find the next LeBron James they can go from bottom of the league to a championship contender simply on the strength of that individual.

This is one area where the NFL may be changing in a way that encourages tanking. The quarterback has always been the most valuable position in the league, but with the way rules and schemes have changed in the past decade that value has become inflated almost beyond measure. In 2011 the Indianapolis Colts finished with a record of 2-14 and earned the first pick in the draft. In 2012, without significant changes to their roster beyond the addition of Andrew Luck, they went 10-6 and made the playoffs. Just to show that this was not a one season thing, they are currently 9-5 and on their way to another playoff berth. Adding Luck has made all the difference in their team, as it has with teams in the NBA.

So will we see NFL teams tanking more desperately in the future in order to get a top quarterback? It’s possible, and that’s likely what we’ve seen with the Houston Texans this season. As soon as it became clear that neither Matt Schaub nor Case Keenum would be their quarterback of the future, the team stopped putting forth the effort necessary to win games. They have lost twelve straight, and I would be stunned if they won either of their remaining two. They will have the top selection in the draft and will likely take whoever they believe is the best quarterback available.

This strategy is less meaningful for teams without need of a quarterback. The Atlanta Falcons are set at that position with Matt Ryan, and they have been given no incentive to continue their losing ways because of the depth of talent available in the draft. Because of the size of NFL rosters, it is very possible to find Pro Bowl caliber players at any point in the first round. Every draft since 1995 has produced at least one Pro Bowl player in the 25-32 range of the draft (assuming Muhammad Wilkerson makes it this year. If he doesn’t, it is a crime.) The same depth of talent does not exist in the NBA. If you are selecting outside of the top five, the best you can hope to do is draft a reliable role player. Many have suggested the Falcons should tank in order to get Jadeveon Clowney, but even if they slip outside the top five they could still end up with someone like Anthony Barr or Khalil Mack, a drop off that is not that significant.

The structure of the NFL schedule is also unique compared to other sporting leagues. Both the NHL and the NBA play 82 game schedules, and the MLB plays 162. This many games create a sample size large enough that a team’s record is a strong indicator of how good they actually are. A sixteen game NFL season does not have the same effect. Teams can get lucky, pull out a better record than they are reasonably capable of, and sneak into the playoffs. Once in the playoffs everything is single elimination, increasing the chances of a team going on a run and winning the Super Bowl. In the NBA, where the best team usually wins, no one has any interest in gaining one of the lower seeds. This is why a team like the Philadelphia 76ers has gone out of their way to bottom out this season after spending the last two as either the seventh or the eighth seed. Compare that to the NFL, where the Baltimore Ravens made the playoffs five straight seasons but only earned a first round bye once. They were content with earning a Wild Card spot because they knew that they just needed a stretch like last year to get hot, win four games, and be crowned champions.

While teams in the NBA don’t actively go out and attempt to throw games, they aren’t always trying their hardest to win them. Players on teams that aren’t going anywhere will often play lax defense and spend their time on offense just trying to build their own stats. They are able to do this because in the NBA their contracts are guaranteed. Even if their team cuts them before the next season, they still earn the money on the deal they signed. Contracts in the NFL aren’t guaranteed, and players on bad teams understand that they are playing for their jobs. With the exception of elite, big money stars, most players on NFL teams are easily replaceable. If they don’t give their full effort one season, it is very likely they won’t be around next season.

All these things considered, it is still surprising we don’t see more tanking in the NFL. This season the only team we can point at as a clear example of tanking is the Houston Texans. Others like the Raiders and the Browns have started to give up, but they were still competing for a playoff spot only a couple weeks ago. A perplexing case is Washington, a team that appears to be doing everything in its power to lose games. They’ve benched their quarterback as a “health precaution” and the players on their defense are giving laughable effort on a weekly basis. They would be a perfect example of tanking, except that they do not actually own their first round pick. Right now it appears that they are going out of their way to make certain the Rams draft as high in the first round as possible. Here is a team with no incentive to tank, yet they appear to be doing so anyway.

These examples aside, the teams that looked to be in the best position to tank are the teams that have pulled together reasonably competent seasons. At the midway point of the season the bottom three teams in the league were the Jaguars, the Buccaneers, and the Vikings. Through week nine they were a combined 1-23. All three of them were in need of a quarterback and a pass rusher, the players most likely to go at the top of the draft. It would have taken a miracle for any of them to make the playoffs, and in any other sport you would have seen the teams get progressively worse as the season wore on. But since that point they are a combined 11-6-1, and all three are playing their best football right now.

Many people point to pride as the issue, but NBA players have just as much pride as those in the NFL. The bigger difference, I believe, is in the overarching culture of the sports. Tanking in the NBA has a long tradition, and while no one is really proud of it, it isn’t viewed with as much distaste as it is in the NFL. In the NFL, where an individual game can make a huge difference, the tradition is of bad teams playing spoiler as the season wears on. The schedule is designed so every game in week seventeen is a division matchup, often with playoff implications. Do you think the Bills wouldn’t like a chance to potentially knock the Patriots out of a first round bye? Do you think the Raiders wouldn’t want to do the same to the Broncos? The Lions have done a fine job crippling their playoff chances, but wouldn’t the Vikings like to be the ones to drive the nail into the coffin? For this reason, along with the others named above, it is clear why tanking isn’t a strategy found as commonly in the NFL as it is in the NBA.

Minnesota Vikings Season Review

Two weeks remain in the season, but for the Minnesota Vikings it is already over. Despite a game effort in the second half, they have been eliminated from the playoffs. The next two weeks will be an opportunity to examine the talent available on their roster, potentially play spoiler, and send off the Metrodome in the best way possible.

Vikings fans are understandably upset with the way this season turned out. After a 10-6 playoff run last year, many had expectations for a similar result this season. I wasn’t quite that high on this team before the season, but I didn’t expect it to turn out this dreadfully. Both the offense and the defense have been a disaster for most of the season, and the team has struggled its way to a 4-9-1 record. Unless they win both of their remaining games, they will be selecting in the top ten of the 2014 NFL Draft.

So what went wrong? How did this season fall apart? Most people point to the cycle of mediocrity at the quarterback position, and I’ll get to that at length later. But first I want to discuss what I believe is the true reason for their failure.

In 2008 the Minnesota Vikings traded their first round pick, seventeenth overall, as part of a package to acquire Jared Allen. In 2009 they used their first round pick to select Percy Harvin, who they traded away this past offseason. In 2010 they had the thirtieth overall pick and moved down to number thirty-four to select Chris Cook. Those three years, 2008-2010, are the years to produce the players currently in the prime of their careers. Those were the years that gave the league first rounders Matt Ryan, Jerod Mayo, Ryan Clady, Brandon Albert, Aqib Talib, Duane Brown, Matthew Stafford, Michael Crabtree, Clay Matthews, Ndamukong Suh, Gerald McCoy, Russell Okung, Eric Berry, Earl Thomas, Mike Iupati, Maurkice Pouncey, Demaryius Thomas, and Dez Bryant. It gave us later round selections like Matt Forte, DeSean Jackson, Ray Rice, Jamaal Charles, Carl Nicks, Jairus Byrd, LeSean McCoy, Mike Wallace, Henry Melton, Rob Gronkowski, Daryl Washington, Navarro Bowman, Jimmy Graham, Aaron Hernandez (sorry, had to include him), Geno Atkins, Kam Chanellor, and Antonio Brown. These are the players who are running the league right now. And from those years the Vikings don’t have a single of their first round picks on their roster.

Look at the Vikings top players, and you’ll see what I’m talking about. Among their best players, only John Sullivan and Adrian Peterson can claim to be in the prime of their career. The rest are either like Matt Kalil, Harrison Smith, and Xavier Rhodes—young and talented players still developing—or like Chad Greenway, Jared Allen, and Kevin Williams—superstars already on a downward trajectory. This roster is built to win either in 2010 or in 2015, and the Vikings are experiencing the turmoil of the intermediate roster turnover. Allen and Williams likely won’t return next season, but players like Rhodes, Sharrif Floyd, and Cordarrelle Patterson will see expanded roles and more productivity.

All that said, I have to discuss the mess they have made of the quarterback position. They have started three different quarterbacks this season: Christian Ponder for nine games, Matt Cassel for four, and Josh Freeman for one. Here are the stats of the three quarterbacks this season (including Freeman’s three games in Tampa Bay.)

Ponder: 63.6%, 170 YPG, 7 TD, 9 INT, 6.9 YPA

Cassel: 61.9%, 208 YPG, 9 TD, 5 INT, 7.8 YPA

Freeman: 42.9%, 190 YPG, 2 TD, 4 INT, 5.2 YPA

Looking at the stats (and at their level of play on the field) it’s clear that Matt Cassel has been the best quarterback on the Vikings’ roster this season. Many disgruntled Vikings fans are asking why he was not the starter earlier in the season, before things slipped away. They question why he was benched in favor of Josh Freeman in week seven and why the team went back to Ponder after Freeman suffered a concussion. They believe, with some reason, that Cassel would have been enough to make a difference in the three last second defeats they suffered with Ponder as the starter.

But thinking in hindsight is always flawed. We have to go back and try to put ourselves in the mindset of the coaches as they were making these decisions. The Vikings brought in Cassel after Joe Webb’s disastrous playoff start last year made it clear that they could not possibly go another season without a suitable backup. They also wanted him as a option in case their third year quarterback faltered. They were willing to put up with some inconsistency last year, Ponder’s first full season as a starter, but this year they wanted to have a the option to bench him if they felt the team needed it. They signed Cassel to a two year contract worth $7.4 million and made it clear from day one that he was there as a backup, not as competition. This upset some Vikings fans, but if you look at each player’s stats from 2012 it is clear who the better quarterback was last season.

Ponder: 63.1%, 183 YPG, 18 TD, 12 INT, 6.1 YPA

Cassel: 58.1%, 200 YPG, 6 TD, 12 INT, 6.5 YPA

Cassel was an utter disaster for the Chiefs, a primary reason for their 2-14 season. When he went down injured in week 5, the Kansas City fans cheered at the sight of Brady Quinn coming in as his replacement. Coming into training camp no one had any reason to believe he was a better option than Ponder, and he did nothing to prove his superiority during the preseason.

Ponder, on the other hand, was coming off a 2012 season in which he led the Vikings to the playoffs. Adrian Peterson received much of the credit for the team’s playoff run—as he should have—but during the final four weeks of the regular season only Peyton Manning had a higher Total QBR than Ponder. The season turned around when he started playing well, and the Vikings were hoping to see him sustain that level of success. They were hoping to get the Good Ponder from the first four and last four games of the season rather than the Bad Ponder from the middle eight.

Good Ponder: 64.9%, 182 YPG, 8 TD, 1 INT, 6.5 YPA

Bad Ponder: 59.8%, 185 YPG, 10 TD, 11 INT, 5.7 YPA

What they got from Ponder through the first three weeks was, unfortunately, Bad Ponder. Following three straight losses to start the season, no one was particularly upset when an injury forced them to start Cassel. His first start was a victory in which he put up impressive numbers against the Pittsburgh Steelers, but he followed that with a disastrous outing in a blowout loss to the Carolina Panthers. In retrospect that doesn’t appear so embarrassing. Carolina is a likely playoff team with one of the best defenses in the NFL. But at the time, the victory over the Vikings moved the Panthers to 2-3 on the season. The Vikings were 1-4, almost too far back to even consider a playoff run. This led them to making what I believe was the one true mistake of their quarterback cycle: starting Josh Freeman only a week after signing him. He played as poorly as I can recall seeing a quarterback play, missing open receivers on the rare occasion that he actually found them. He finished 20/53 for 190 yards with no touchdowns and one interception. He also suffered a concussion in the game, forcing the Vikings to choose between Cassel and Ponder for the next start. Here is what they were facing at that point:

Ponder: 59.0%, 230 YPG, 2 TD, 5 INT, 6.9 YPA

Cassel: 69.3%, 245 YPG, 3 TD, 2 INT, 7.1 YPA

Cassel’s stats are better, and you could make a strong case that he deserved to start. I would argue that at 1-5, it was clear by this point that the Vikings’ season wasn’t headed anywhere. The options were playing Cassel—a proven commodity with no long term upside—or Ponder—still possessing faint possibility of being their quarterback of the future. As laughable as that sounds, they had to give Ponder a try. If a team already eliminated from the playoffs believes there is any chance they have a franchise quarterback on their roster, they have to go all in. The quarterback position is too valuable to just continue to plug in mediocrity year in and year out. To be successful in this league, you need stability and success at the quarterback position.

So they made the move to go with Ponder, and it worked out at first. They lost to the Packers, but Ponder played well. He put together a similarly strong performance the next week against the Cowboys, even leading a go ahead drive in the fourth quarter. The next week he threw only four incompletions in a victory over the Redskins. He wasn’t dominating by any stretch of the imagination, but he gave them no reason to bench him in favor of Cassel. His poor performance the following week in Seattle is easily excused, but in the eventual tie with the Packers we saw everything negative we had come to expect from Ponder. His string of steady performances was not enough to make up for the games in which he cost his team any hope of offensive production.

When Ponder went down with an injury early the next week, Cassel came in and led the team to an overtime victory over the Bears. The coaches decided to stick with him, and he rewarded them with a pair of strong performances in a tight loss to the Ravens and an upset victory over the Eagles. At this point, it would be a surprise if anyone else started during the last two games.

So three years after they drafted him, it appears the Vikings are ready to move on from Christian Ponder. And here is where I say something controversial: I don’t think drafting him was a mistake. No, he didn’t develop into what they hoped he could be, and yes, the lost draft pick is costing them just as much as the absence of the picks from 2008 through 2010. But results are not the only thing we need to look at when evaluating a decision. We also need to consider the process.

It is impossible to understate how much a franchise quarterback can mean to a team. Not only is the quarterback the most valuable player on the field, he also has the longest career of any non-kicker/punter. Top quarterbacks can remain elite into their late thirties, as demonstrated by Peyton Manning this season. If you can hit on a franchise quarterback, your team is set for the next decade at least. That is why I still believe the Redskins won’t regret the trade to get RGIII. That is why the Colts will likely be able to go from 1998 to 2025 with fewer than five seasons missing the playoffs.

At the Vikings game this past weekend they honored the best players to ever play in the Metrodome, and Daunte Culpepper was received with a standing ovation. Compare that to Brett Favre, who if he returned to Lambeau would probably receive just as many boos as cheers. Neither quarterback left the city on particularly great terms and Favre is clearly the better player, so why the difference in reception? In the years since Culpepper’s departure the Vikings have cycled through an endless cycle of disappointments while the Packers have moved on from Favre to Aaron Rodgers without even suffering quarterback mediocrity in the middle. They can hate Brett Favre because they are unable to see how much he meant to their team.

In the years between the departure of Culpepper and the drafting of Ponder, the Vikings started the following quarterbacks: Brad Johnson, Tarvaris Jackson, Kelly Holcomb, Brooks Bollinger, Gus Frerotte, Brett Favre, and Joe Webb. They ran through a series of fill in veterans mixed among a second round project in Tarvaris Jackson. The one year they had competent quarterback play, Brett Favre led them to the NFC Championship Game. This was a team that had every reason to believe they were a quarterback away from being a competitive franchise.

Every year when the draft came around they knew they needed a quarterback. But they were never in position to take one. So they shrugged their shoulders, took whoever they believe was the best player available, and decided they would be fine with some veteran journeyman until the next season’s draft. Five drafts passed in this manner, and by the time 2011 rolled around it became impossible to rationalize putting this off any further. So with the twelfth pick they decided to reach for Christian Ponder, a prospect most had ranked late in the first round or early in the second.

Because teams recognize the importance of the quarterback position, it has become almost impossible to get a quality quarterback in the draft without reaching. Andrew Luck and Matt Ryan went in about the right spots, but every other quarterback taken in the past five years has been a reach. EJ Manuel wasn’t a first round player. There were enough questions about how RGIII could translate to the NFL that he should have fallen out of the top five. Ryan Tannehill only had a year and a half of experience playing quarterback at a college level. In 2011, the year Ponder was drafted, there wasn’t a quarterback prospect truly worthy of going in the top twenty. Yet at number twelve, Ponder was the fourth taken. If you want a quarterback, you have to be willing to take a risk and reach for him.

With what we know now, it’s easy to second guess the Vikings’ decision. In the second round of that draft, the Bengals selected Andy Dalton and the 49ers selected Colin Kaepernick. Both have had more success than Ponder during their time in the league. Why didn’t the Vikings take one of them? Well, until this year Dalton had done very little to distance himself from Ponder. His statistics were marginally better, but the difference was small enough that it could be written off as the product of playing with AJ Green compared to the ugly mess the Vikings have had at wide receiver. And it is impossible to say what Kaepernick would have been had he not gone to the 49ers. The player he is now bears little resemblance to the player he was in college, a run first quarterback in a pistol system. Would he have been as good as he is now without the tutelage of Jim Harbaugh, a former NFL quarterback and one of the best coaches in the league? It’s hard to say what would have happened had he been taken by the Vikings.

If Ponder had been an utter disaster along the lines of Blaine Gabbert, it would be reasonable to say that the team had no idea what they were doing when they took him. But despite what many Vikings fans believe, Ponder has shown flashes of being a capable NFL quarterback. He’s been inconsistent, but a team can live with an inconsistent quarterback in this league, as evidenced by the success of Joe Flacco, Tony Romo, and Eli Manning. These players succeed because at their best they are every bit as good as the top quarterbacks in the league. Ponder has shown no ability to play at that elite level. At his best, he is a game manager. You can live with a consistent game manager like Alex Smith. You can live with a quarterback who oscillates between great and terrible like Joe Flacco. But you cannot succeed with an inconsistent quarterback who is merely above average when at his best. This is why the Vikings have to move on from Ponder when the season comes to an end.