Analytics of Offensive Injuries

Very often when we think of injuries we only consider what the absence of that player means in terms of the absence of their talent. It makes sense that installing a lesser player into that position would hinder a team’s performances. But we often overlook the changes that need made in a team’s scheme with the loss of the player, as well as the changes by the opposition.

In this piece I’ll go through several teams that have lost key offensive pieces at different positions and analyze the tape to try to determine how they have tried to compensate for their losses and how defenses have responded. I’ll start with the Falcons, who have suffered multiple injuries at the wide receiver position. From there I’ll move on to the losses the Broncos have suffered on their offensive line. After that, I’ll discuss on the Buccaneers and the loss of Doug Martin at Running Back. I’ll conclude with the most critical position, the quarterback, and how the injury to Aaron Rodgers has changed the Packers’ offense.

Atlanta Falcons

Losses: Julio Jones, Roddy White

Schematically the Falcons have done very little to adjust to the losses at the wide receiver position. They’ve bumped Harry Douglas from his slot role to the outside, but he still runs essentially the same patterns. Their offense is slightly more reliant on crossing routes and curls as opposed to the deeper routes run along the sideline by Jones and White.

Of greater impact have been the changes in the scheme they have faced from the opposition. With both receivers healthy last year it was almost impossible to match up with the Falcons in a man scheme. Teams played primarily Cover-2 with the cornerbacks holding to underneath zones. With proper timing, Matt Ryan was able to pick these zones apart. Teams were hesitant to risk blitzes that would leave them exposed in man coverage, such as in the play in the image below. As we see, the Cowboys have sent six rushers at Matt Ryan. But at the bottom of the field, Julio Jones has already beaten the man coverage and is open for a big completion down the sideline.

The defensive schemes faced by the Falcons have changed greatly since the injuries. Teams now play primarily Cover-1, trusting their corners to match up man to man with Atlanta’s mediocre receivers. As shown below, this allows them to send additional rushers without fear of a big play over the top. In their week 8 matchup, the Cardinals sent six after Matt Ryan. They left a safety deep and a linebacker in a zone in the middle, but the other three in coverage matched up man to man with the receivers. Unlike before, Ryan had no receiver he trusted to beat man coverage. He was forced to throw into a congested area, leading to an interception by the safety.

Denver Broncos:

Losses: Ryan Clady, Dan Koppen, JD Walton, Chris Kuper

Statistically, it doesn’t appear that the Broncos have lost anything due to injuries. Only the Lions have surrendered fewer sacks this year, and their rushing attack is working at about the same level as last season. But these are merely the results of the adjustments they have made to counteract the losses they have suffered. In reality, their offensive line play has fallen off noticeably due to the injuries.

As one would expect with a Peyton Manning led team, a sort of chess match has evolved between their offense and the defenses they have faced. Because of the injuries to the Broncos’ line, teams have begun blitzing Manning with increased frequency. Last year the Broncos were able to handle almost any blitz thrown at them, but this year a well coordinated rush can disrupt Manning. With this increase in blitzes has come an increase in man coverage, and Denver has responded by integrating a number of pick plays and crossing routes into their offense. Defenses have responded by trying to be more physical at the line, and the teams that have succeeded have managed to beat the Broncos. A secondary only needs to hold up for a second or two before the blitz can disrupt Manning.

Denver’s deep passing game has been limited this year, but not due to Peyton Manning. His throws from sideline to sideline make it clear his arm is still capable of making every throw. The change has been to their scheme, the result of the injuries on their line. Last year they frequently ran route combinations with every receiver running deep down the field, but this year there is almost always at least one receiver running across the middle where Manning can easily find and dump it off to him. This evolution of their offense has been aided by changes in personnel. The addition of Wes Welker has given them a more dangerous option in the short passing game than Brandon Stokley, and the emergence of Julius Thomas has opened up the middle of the field more. Knowshon Moreno has become a better receiving option, and they are running many more screen plays than they did last year. The diversity lost by the down the field attack has been offset by the versatility of their short range game. At the same time, their offense would be even deadlier if they had a healthy line they could trust to protect Manning.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

Losses: Doug Martin, Mike James

Doug Martin was off to a disappointing start to the season when he tore his labrum in week 8 and was placed on injured reserve. At that time he was averaging 3.6 yards per carry with only one touchdown. Even so, his loss was a devastating blow to a struggling offense. The fact that they have managed to win three straight after losing their first eight is remarkable, and it has occurred due as much to adjustments in scheme as improvement from the players.

Martin’s struggles at the beginning of the season can be partially blamed on the scheme he was put into. The Buccaneers run a heavy power game with guards pulling around on nearly every rushing play. While Martin is capable of running with power, he is more suited to a one cut style zone rushing attack. Often the team would try to compromise by giving it to him on an outside run and trying to pull a lineman all the way to the edge, usually slowing the play and allowing the defense to disrupt it. With the powerful backs that came into replace Martin they had to make no such compromise. Most of their runs now take place between the tackles, leaving short, efficient pulls for their guards. They have also integrated a fullback into their offense. After using one for less than a quarter of their plays earlier this year, there is now a fullback on the field on more than half of their offensive snaps. This has only aided them in their efforts to jam the ball down the middle of the field. Defenses have made few adjustments to this new style. They have actually backed off some from the line, giving the Buccaneers looks at six man fronts they never saw with Martin in the backfield. This has also contributed to the uptick in their running game.

One notable way in which Tampa Bay has been hurt by the injury is their play action game. Early in the season they faced quite a few looks like the one displayed below, wide open receivers running through the gap left by the linebackers who were slow to drop. Better quarterback play would discourage this, but even the combo of Josh Freeman and Mike Glennon could take advantage of these aggressive responses.

The Buccaneers’ run game has improved since the injury, but does that mean that Martin isn’t as good as their other running backs? In one simple, clear word: No. Doug Martin is an incredibly gifted running back, and their running game will be at its best if they can mold their system around him. Good coaches know how to get the best out of the players they are given. We also cannot ignore the improvements made by their offensive line over the past few weeks. They deserve as much credit for the turnaround as anyone.

Green Bay Packers

Losses: Aaron Rodgers, Seneca Wallace

The quarterback is the most irreplaceable player in the game, so it’s not surprising that a loss at that position results in the most drastic change in scheme. We have witnessed a particularly strong example of the importance of the quarterback this year, with Green Bay losing one of the best passers in the game. With Aaron Rodgers they are among the best teams in the league, but without him they are among the worst. Beyond the loss of his remarkable skillset, what has changed to send them into an 0-4-1 tailspin in games without him?

Without Aaron Rodgers the Packers have transitioned to a run heavy team. While the addition of Eddie Lacy makes this a more tenable option than in past years, the run game is still clearly not the strength of their attack. The success they had early on was largely a result of the schemes set in place against them. With Rodgers at quarterback they faced defensive fronts with six, and occasionally even five, defenders in the box, even in short yardage and red zone situations. Rodgers was smart enough to recognize these situations and to check to a running play when it was advantageous. If they had a running play called and the defense was lined up to stop it, he would flip the ball out on a quick screen to a wide receiver. They rarely ran the ball into a defense set up to stop them. The same cannot be said of their new offense. Lacy now runs into boxes containing seven or eight men, and they haven't given their new quarterbacks the same freedom to throw quick screens. Since Rodgers went out, Lacy’s yards per carry have fallen by nearly a full yard.

As you would imagine, the changes are even more drastic in the passing game. The Packers’ pass offense is built on a series of precise timing routes. Without Rodgers under center, those have disappeared from their gameplan. They no longer even attempt back shoulder throws, and they rarely send receivers out solely to block for the swing route behind them. They have also greatly simplified the reads they ask their quarterback to make. Rodgers usually had five receivers to choose from, but with Tolzien and Flynn under center they usually keep two extra men in the backfield to block in order to prevent them from having to handle five separate options.

The notable difference in defensive schemes comes as a result of the loss of Rodgers’s mobility. Because of his ability to exploit a defense by moving out of the pocket or taking off downfield, defenses were forced to play much more zone than they would have liked. Even while blitzing, defenses remained stuck in sparse zone coverages. Now that Rodgers is out, teams are able to man up against the Packers receivers without worrying that the quarterback will take off while their backs are turned. With good corner play and a strong pass rush, teams can now shut down the Packers passing attack. When Rodgers was at quarterback, there was often nothing a defense could do.

The Most Wonderful Day of the Year

Thanksgiving has arrived, the day when all Americans gather at home to celebrate the wonder of three football games on a random Thursday in November. Truly, this is the greatest holiday. This year we’ve been given an intriguing set of games, with a pair of division matchups with playoff significance sandwiched around the Raiders-Cowboys contest everyone has been dying to see. Okay, fine, that one isn’t so great. But I’m still going to watch it, and you should too.

Whichever games you choose to watch, expect to see stars all over the field. Even without Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay still features Clay Matthews and Jordy Nelson. The Lions have Ndamukong Suh and Calvin Johnson. The Cowboys have Dez Bryant, Jason Witten, and DeMarcus Ware and the Raiders have…no one of note, really. But the Steelers are still led by Ben Roethlisberger and Troy Polamalu, facing off against a Ravens team with Terrell Suggs and Haloti Ngata. These are players that are well known across the league by fans of every team. Which is why I decided not to write about them. Watch them, enjoy them, but keep your eyes on these six players who are still sliding by under the radar.

Green Bay Packers: Eddie Lacy, RB

Alright, the first player I’ll mention is one every football fan has already heard a great deal about. I’m sorry. There are more anonymous players later on, I promise. Anyway, Lacy isn’t really my first choice of Packers players to write about. I would have loved a chance to highlight Randall Cobb and the wonderful ways the Packers involve him in their offense, but he’s still not back from his broken leg. Instead I’ll focus on Lacy, part of a 3.5 man race for Offensive Rookie of the Year (Keenan Allen, Zac Stacy, and the potential for a late season push by Tavon Austin.)

I didn’t like Lacy when he was at Alabama or coming into the draft. I thought he was the least talented running back to start for Alabama in the past five years. I thought he was a product of that absurdly talented offensive line, and I expected him to wash out of the NFL as thoroughly as Mark Ingram. I’m not yet willing to admit that I was wrong, but yeah, I was probably wrong. In ten games so far this year Lacy has rushed for 806 yards and 6 touchdowns. His yards per carry number of 4.1 isn’t phenomenal, but it is serviceable. It’s definitely better than anything the Packers have offered in their running game since Ryan Grant fell apart in 2010.

His numbers may not make much of an impression, but watching him play certainly will. Unlike the other Alabama running backs that entered the league before him, he isn’t afraid to demonstrate his physicality. The viciousness with which he fights for every yard is reminiscent of Marshawn Lynch or Adrian Peterson, though he lacks the breakaway speed to develop into a runner of that caliber. He probably won’t ever be a consistent Pro Bowl player, but he will be a useful weapon for the Packers offense once Aaron Rodgers is healthy again.

Others to watch: David Bakhtiari, Mike Neal, Sam Shields

Detroit Lions: Offensive Line

The Lions have built a roster with a lot of big names and familiar faces. No one in the league dominates their respective position like Calvin Johnson, and Ndamukong Suh is the devastating/dirty player that everyone expects him to be. Reggie Bush has perfectly filled the role they imagined for him, and Matthew Stafford is having a career year. But if I had to choose any players to watch this Thursday, I would choose the five standing between him and the defense.

Coming into the season the Lions’ line was expected to be the weakness of their offense. Jeff Backus wasn’t their starting left tackle for the first time since 2000, and Gosder Cherilus left the team to be overpaid by the Colts. Riley Reiff showed promise after being taken in the first round last year, but there were people skeptical if he could step in as a starter at left tackle. After a brief cycle at right tackle, they appear to have settled on undrafted rookie LaAdrian Waddle next to rookie third round pick Larry Warford. An offensive line replacing three starters, two of them with rookies, is surely a recipe for disaster.

Yet so far this year they have surrendered only 14 sacks, fewest in the NFL. Part of the credit belongs to Matthew Stafford for getting the ball out of his hand quicker than any other quarterback in the league. At the same time, the offensive line hasn’t limited their ability to attack down the field. It will be intriguing to see what they can do against a versatile Packers pass rush that ate the Vikings alive for six sacks last weekend.

Others to watch: DeAndre Levy, Nick Fairley, Joseph Fauria

Oakland Raiders: Sio Moore, OLB

Trying to find something to like about this team was an arduous endeavor, requiring me to dig deep into their roster and watch quite a bit of Raiders game film. I went into it expecting I would have to write about a better known player, such as Lamarr Houston, but I was pleasantly surprised to find a budding star by the name of Sio Moore on their defense.

Moore is a rookie third round pick out of UConn playing at the Outside Linebacker position. He isn’t an every down player yet, but his workload has increased as the season has worn on. He normally lines up tight on the end of the line in their 3-4 alighment, primarily on the left side though he’ll frequently move to the right. He will also sometimes drop back into a more traditional linebacker position in a 4-3 alignment. His versatility allows the Oakland defense a great deal of variety in the looks and schemes they present.

Moore’s numbers aren’t flashy, but there is a lot to like about his game. He is incredibly strong with above average quickness on the pass rush. He pursues runners down the line, and he holds contain very well against the run. He is dangerous both as a pass rusher and a run defender, though he looks uncomfortable whenever he drops into coverage. But what he really brings to the team is something Oakland desperately needs: young talent on defense. They’ve managed to patch together a capable unit with veterans like Charles Woodson, Nick Roach, and Kevin Burnett, but they need more talented young players like Sio Moore if they want to build a quality defense in the years ahead.

Others to watch: Lamarr Houston, Denarius Moore, Charles Woodson (enjoy him while he’s still around)

Dallas Cowboys: Tony Romo, QB

I know, Tony Romo isn't exactly under the radar, but hear me out. The Cowboys are the most overexposed and overhyped team in the league, and it’s a challenge to find anyone good the public isn’t already aware of. A healthy Sean Lee might have made the cut, and I was strongly tempted to go with Jason Hatcher, who has been phenomenal at defensive tackle this year. But in the end, I’m going to go with the player better known than anyone else on their roster.

Romo has experienced a wild career, going from one of the most underrated players in the NFL to one of the most overrated and now back to one of the most underrated. The truth, as always, is somewhere in between. He’s currently the butt of almost every quarterback joke in the league, right alongside the truly awful Mark Sanchez. But this is the classic case where a couple of plays have overshadowed the truth revealed by the data. Here are Romo’s stats from the past three years alongside a few other notable quarterbacks.

Tony Romo: 279 YPG, 65.5%, 7.6 YPA, 82 TD, 36 INT

Eli Manning: 271 YPG, 59.5%, 7.7 YPA, 69 TD, 48 INT

Joe Flacco: 236 YPG, 58.7%, 6.9 YPA, 56 TD, 36 INT

Matt Ryan: 280 YPG, 65.6%, 7.4 YPA, 79 TD, 38 INT

Ben Roethlisberger: 268 YPG, 63.6%, 7.6 YPA, 56 TD, 32 INT

It is fun to mock Tony Romo, but it’s clear that he is one of the best quarterbacks in the league right now. He’s not elite on the level of Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, or Drew Brees, but he is perfectly capable of leading a team on a deep playoff run. Watch Romo this Thursday with an open mind and a clear eye. You’ll see the throws he is capable of making. You’ll see how efficiently he runs their offense. You’ll see a quarterback capable of winning a Super Bowl.

Others to watch: Terrence Williams, Jason Hatcher, Brandon Carr

Pittsburgh Steelers: Cameron Heyward, DE

The Steelers are another team with a lot of known commodities, even if most of their best known players have been disappointments this season. Ike Taylor and Ryan Clark have been exposed repeatedly this year. Troy Polamalu is nowhere near the player he used to be. LaMarr Woodley has been miserable on the rare occasion he is actually healthy. What has kept their defense together has been stellar play by the always underrated Lawrence Timmons and the surprising development of Cameron Heyward.

Heyward was a late first round pick out of Ohio State in 2011, and over the first two years of his career he was seen as a disappointment. The defensive end position in the Steelers’ scheme is among the least glamorous in the league, but 26 tackles and 2.5 sacks over two seasons is failure by any standards. There were even calls for him to be cut during training camp, and he responded by living up to every expectation they had when they drafted him. By week four he had displaced starter Ziggy Hood, and it doesn’t appear likely that he will lose that role anytime soon.

Watch Heyward play and you’ll see everything you associate with the Pittsburgh Steelers. He is a big, nasty, physical defensive lineman who prefers to knock blockers over rather than trying to shoot around them. He is a smart player as well, his 5 pass deflections ranking third in the league among defensive linemen. At some point during Thursday night’s game he will make a play that jumps off the screen, but to truly appreciate his ability you need to watch him as often as possible. Whenever a run is stuffed behind the line, he is likely taking up blockers in the vicinity. Whenever an edge rusher grabs a sack, Heyward has likely pushed the offensive guard back to prevent the quarterback from stepping forward. This team’s turnaround would not have happened without his stellar play.

Others to watch: Lawrence Timmons, Antonio Brown, David DeCastro,

Baltimore Ravens: Daryl Smith, ILB

There isn’t a whole lot to be impressed with on this Ravens roster. Their offense has been terrible, with Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce competing to see who gain the fewest yards on each carry (Pierce currently leads 2.7 to Rice’s 2.9.) Flacco has been awful, and apart from Marshall Yanda their offensive line has been atrocious. On the defensive side Suggs and Ngata have been Suggs and Ngata while Jimmy Smith has stepped up in their secondary. But the real player to watch on this defense is the one who slid into Ray Lewis’s spot.

Daryl Smith has been a fantastic player in Jacksonville for years but has been ignored by the public mostly due to the fact that he played in Jacksonville. He was brought in by Baltimore as a free agent to take the spot vacated by the retirement of Ray Lewis, and unlike their attempt to replace Ed Reed with Michael Huff, his signing wasn’t a total disaster. He has been a solid, veteran presence for the Ravens on the interior of their defense. While no one will ever put Lewis and Smith in the same category in terms of career accomplishment, he has probably given more to their defense this year than Lewis did last year.

Smith’s play has fallen off against the run, but he is still a reliable tackler when meeting a runner in the open field. More than that, he is a valuable commodity in the NFL right now: a linebacker who isn’t a liability against the pass. He rarely rushes the passer or matches up man on man against a receiver, primarily dropping into a middle zone when he reads pass. His understanding of the passing game allows him to make incredibly precise drops into lanes that would be left open by most linebackers in the game. Expect Heath Miller to have a quiet game as Smith drops beneath nearly every seam route he runs.

Others to watch: Jimmy Smith, Marshall Yanda, Torrey Smith

Chaos in the AFC

We’re at the point in the season where the playoff picture starts to take shape, when the good teams distance themselves from those that have just been lucky so far. In the NFC the Seahawks and the Saints are asserting their dominance while the Vikings, Redskins, Rams, Falcons, and Buccaneers are essentially eliminated. In the AFC you have five teams with at least 7 wins in Denver, Kansas City, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, and New England. These five all look to be in excellent position to make the playoffs.

And then you have the sixth seed. In an earlier post I listed five teams I believed were in contention for this spot, and those teams have gone a combined 1-7 in the two weeks since then, with the only victory coming in a game where two of the teams were facing each other. If the season ended today, the New York Jets would be the final playoff team with a current record of 5-5. But the season doesn’t end today, and there are currently eight other teams within a game and a half of the Jets. Yes, nine of the sixteen teams in the AFC are jammed into a 1.5 game window fighting for the opportunity to stretch their season into January. Right now, none of these teams deserves to make the playoffs, but they have six more weeks to prove themselves. It’s possible one could make it was a final record of 8-8, but more likely we will see one team get hot and make it to 9-7. I’ve looked over the upcoming schedules, and I’ve organized teams from least likely to most likely in terms of playoff possibility.

Buffalo Bills (4-7)

Remaining Schedule: Bye, Atlanta, @Tampa Bay, @Jacksonville, Miami, @New England

Wow, that’s a lovely schedule. Atlanta may be playing as bad as any team in the league right now, and Tampa Bay and Jacksonville have been the jokes of the league the entire season. Miami is very beatable, and there’s a chance New England could have nothing to play for the last week of the year. At the same time, Buffalo is at the disadvantage of being the only team on this list to already have seven losses. This isn’t a very good team, and I don’t think they’ll win 5 straight.

San Diego Chargers (4-6)

Remaining Schedule: @Kansas City, Cincinnati, New York, @Denver, Oakland, Kansas City

Look upon that schedule and despair. To make it to nine wins the Chargers would have to win five games, meaning they could afford only one loss in their three remaining games against Kansas City and Denver. On the plus side, the Chargers fans won’t have to worry about watching their season die. Four of the remaining games are at home, meaning they’ll likely be blacked out in the San Diego area.

Tennessee Titans (4-6)

Remaining Schedule: @Oakland, @Indianapolis, @Denver, Arizona, @Jacksonville, Houston

After a promising start to the season, the Titans have lost five of their last six. And based on the schedule ahead, their losing ways will probably continue. Back to back road games against the Colts and the Broncos will destroy them, and following that with surprise NFC contender Arizona will probably vanquish any slim hopes that survived. Even the game against Jacksonville is not a clear victory, considering the Titans have lost two of the last three times the teams have faced each other.

Oakland Raiders (4-6)

Remaining Schedule: Tennessee, @Dallas, @Jets, Kansas City, @San Diego, Denver

The fact that this team with this roster remains relevant this late in the season has to earn Dennis Allen some Coach of the Year consideration. Coming into this season everyone saw this team on par with the abysmal Jaguars, and they have somehow managed to win four games. But don’t count on them continuing their mildly successful ways. This is still an untalented team with games against the two top dogs of the conference remaining on their schedule. Oakland won’t make the playoffs, but they’ve earned some consideration.

Cleveland Browns (4-6)

Remaining Schedule: Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, @New England, Chicago, @Jets, @Pittsburgh

Following a close loss to the Chiefs and a victory over the Ravens, the Browns were a trendy pick to beat the Bengals last week and get back into the division race. They met those expectations with a performance in which they somehow allowed 31 points in the second quarter alone. Because they are the Browns, because they play in Cleveland, they will find a way to lose games. The schedule isn’t intimidating, but I don’t think this roster is capable of winning five of these games.

New York Jets (5-5)

Remaining Schedule: @Baltimore, Miami, Oakland, @Carolina, Cleveland, @Miami

The Jets have to be happy with where they’re sitting now. As one of two teams with five wins, they’re mathematically in the best shape of the contenders. The schedule ahead isn’t unpleasant, and five games against other AFC Wild Card contenders could help them thin the competition. At the same time, it’s difficult to have faith in a team that’s been blown out by the Bills and the Titans while surrendering 49 points to Andy Dalton and the Bengals. They’re bound to lay a couple more eggs over the rest of the season, and that will likely cost them a playoff spot.

Baltimore Ravens (4-6)

Remaining Schedule: Jets, Pittsburgh, Minnesota, @Detroit, New England, @Cincinnati

Last year the Ravens got hot during the playoffs and rode that to a Superbowl victory. There is no reason they can’t ride a similar streak into the postseason. Every remaining game is winnable, though their last three are a bit grim. Ray Rice played like a competent running back for the first time last week against the Bears, but it’s difficult to know if he will be able to repeat that success against a team with an actual run defense. If he is, their offense can start clicking again and they can pull out victories in two of the final three games. That may be all they need.

Pittsburgh Steelers (4-6)

Remaining Schedule: @Cleveland, @Baltimore, Miami, Cincinnati, @Green Bay, Cleveland

Here we have a team that is already hot, winning four of their last six, with a quarterback playing at a high level and a reasonable schedule ahead. Going to Lambeau isn’t appealing, but the rest of their games are definitely winnable. If they can manage a split against the Bengals and the Packers, they can win the rest of their games and slip into the playoffs as a surprise contender after everyone (including me) wrote them off. If both them and the Ravens can come out on top next week, it sets up an exciting elimination game scenario on Thanksgiving night.

Miami Dolphins (5-5)

Remaining Schedule: Carolina, @Jets, @Pittsburgh, New England, @Buffalo, Jets

Like the Jets, the Dolphins have the dual advantage of five wins already and a schedule of games against their competition. This is also a more talented team, as evidenced by wins over quality opponents in the Colts and the Bengals. They have two likely losses in the Panthers and the Patriots, but they can take care of business in the other four and make it to nine wins. They were my pick to make the playoffs two weeks ago, and I’ll stick with them.

How The Chiefs Turned It Around. And What Teams Can Do So Next Year.

Ten weeks into the regular season, the Kansas City Chiefs are the lone remaining undefeated team. At this point last season they were 1-8 and on their way to the first overall draft pick. Clearly a great deal has changed over the past year, as evidenced by the massive turnover of their starting roster.

	2012 Starter	2013 Starter
Left Tackle	Brandon Albert	Brandon Albert
Left Guard	Jeff Allen	Jeff Allen
Center	Ryan Lilja	Rodney Hudson
Right Guard	Jon Asamoah	Jon Asamoah
Right Tackle	Eric Winston	Eric Fisher
Running Back	Jamaal Charles	Jamaal Charles
Wide Receiver	Dwayne Bowe	Dwayne Bowe
Wide Receiver	Jonathan Baldwin	Donnie Avery
Tight End	Tony Moeaki	Anthony Fasano
Fullback	Nate Eachus	Anthony Sherman
Quarterback	Matt Cassel	Alex Smith
Defensive End	Tyson Jackson	Tyson Jackson
Nose Tackle	Dontari Poe	Dontari Poe
Defensive End	Ropati Pitoitua	Mike Devito
Outside Linebacker	Tamba Hali	Tamba Hali
Inside Linebacker	Derrick Johnson	Derrick Johnson
Inside Linebacker	Jovan Belcher	Akeem Jordan
Outside Linebacker	Justin Houston	Justin Houston
Cornerback	Brandon Flowers	Brandon Flowers
Safety	Eric Berry	Eric Berry
Safety	Kendrick Lewis	Kendrick Lewis
Cornerback	Javier Arenas	Sean Smith
Punter	Dustin Colquitt	Dustin Colquitt
Kicker	Ryan Succop	Ryan Succop
Long Snapper	Thomas Gafford	Thomas Gafford

Okay, what the hell? They changed a total of nine starters during the offseason, mostly at positions that were in flux during last year anyway. The core of their team is the same, yet somehow they’ve gone from worst to first. How have they done that? It turns out there are three main keys to their turnaround, which I’ll cover briefly. Following that, I’ll look at the teams currently struggling and try to figure out if they have hope of a similar turnaround next year.

1) Upgrades at Head Coach and Quarterback

This is the most obvious, so I’ll start with it. When a team struggles the two most obvious faces of that struggle are the Head Coach and the Quarterback, and last year Kansas City really doubled down on incompetence at these positions. Romeo Crennel has a career record of 28-55, and last year Matt Cassel threw twice as many interceptions as touchdowns before being benched for the equally ineffective Brady Quinn.

As was justified, the Chiefs moved on in both positions during the offseason. They replaced Crennel with Andy Reid and sent a second round pick to San Francisco to make Alex Smith their starting quarterback. The former is as sexy a name as was available (I am not going to lower myself to making a fat joke here) and he has lived up to his reputation thus far. Most notably, he’s made certain Jamaal Charles, their best offensive player, is heavily involved. Last year he had nine games with fewer than 20 touches. This year he has only one so far.

Reid’s influence is even more obvious when looking at the coaches tape. Kansas City is often accused of running a vanilla offense, and while that is fair in many ways, it doesn’t account for just how mind numbing their offense was last year. Under Crennel’s staff they ran the ball out of an almost exclusively zone attack. This year under Reid they still run a great deal of zone, but they have augmented it with isos, traps, and even the occasional read option. In the passing game their routes are much better designed, using dummy receivers to open up the primary receiver.

Alex Smith has had almost as much effect in improving their offense. His primary influence has been security with the ball, throwing only four interceptions thus far on the season. But he’s also added to the offense with an underrated aspect of his game: his mobility. Behind a shaky offensive line, his ability to scramble has allowed them to stay on schedule and keep a rhythm going, helping keep Charles in the game. While questions remain about Smith—he has effectively neutralized Dwayne Bowe and he has shown no ability to take over a game if absolutely necessary—it is clear that he has been a principal reason for their improvement.

2) Development of Young Talent

With the success of rookies in recent years it has become easy to dismiss players after an unsuccessful first few seasons. So many have entered the league as stars that we sometimes forget they are still improving players adjusting to the NFL. Sometimes all a team needs in order to improve is a cast of young players ready to step up their game.

Three major improvements stand out on Kansas City’s defense, and I’ll start with the least significant of them. In 2008 and 2009 Kansas City used back to back top five selections on defensive linemen. One, Glenn Dorsey, was a bust and is no longer with the team. The other was Tyson Jackson, and even though he’s been a consistent starter he has been justifiably termed a disappointment. And while it’s true that he will likely never live up to his draft position, he has become a competent starter this season. He holds his ground better against blocks, which is really all that is asked of a 3-4 defensive end. He’s been a solid part of the best defensive front seven in the NFL.

A more notable improvement comes from Justin Houston. A third round pick in 2011, he showed the potential to become an elite pass rusher, making the Pro Bowl as an alternate last year. This season he has fully lived up to that potential, currently sitting second in the league with 11 sacks. While he’s cooled off some from his torrid start (7.5 sacks in his first three games) he remains a terrifying edge rusher opposite Tamba Hali. He’s a major part of the reason they have jumped from bottom three in the league in sacks and interceptions to top five in both.

The most improved player on the team (and possibly in the league) is Dontari Poe, last year’s first round pick. While he started every game last season at nose tackle, he was little more than a large, athletic space eater. This year he has evolved into arguably the most dominant nose tackle in the league. His sack numbers have dropped off as the season has gone along, with only 1 in his past six games after 3.5 in his first three. But he has been a dominant, destructive force in every game he has played. Over the course of the offseason he developed a stunning ability to shed blockers, allowing him to break away and make plays against the run and in the pass rush. He already has more tackles than he did his entire rookie season. At no point can an offensive lineman be confident he is in control of Poe. At any moment he can use his strength and athleticism to toss a lineman aside and chase down a ball carrier. If I had to select one player responsible for the defense’s turnaround, it would be Poe. Of course, he has had plenty of help, as I’ll cover in the next section.

3) Have Good Players

Many people laughed when the worst team in the league last year had six players selected to the Pro Bowl, yet no one could identify a player that wasn’t worthy of the honor. The clearest part of Kansas City’s turnaround is that they were not truly a 2-14 team. Their roster has been loaded with talent over the past few years, with easily identifiable names like Jamaal Charles, Tamba Hali, Eric Berry, Brandon Flowers, and Derrick Johnson. That the team finished so poorly last year is a testament to poor coaching and lack of effort.

Again I have to give credit to Andy Reid. I’ve already covered his increased and varied usage of Jamaal Charles, but his contribution to the defense needs to be mentioned as well. Specifically, his lack of contribution. In his time with Philadelphia, Reid’s team ran a 4-3 with defensive ends lined up in a “Wide 9” on the distant ends of the line, relying on the linebackers to cover the gaps left in the running game. Many coaches (cough, cough, Mike Shanahan) would insist on carrying their old defense to their new team even if it didn’t fit the personnel. Reid recognized that his team was built to run a 3-4, and he let them keep things the same in order to maximize the bountiful talent available on the roster.

Now that we understand how the Chiefs have done it, what teams have hope for the coming year? While there will probably not be any turnarounds as drastic, there is plenty of potential among the lower teams. For simplicity’s sake, I’ll stick to those with three wins or fewer.

Oakland Raiders (3-6)

The Raiders are among the least likely to turn it around. They will likely carry over their coach and quarterback to next season, which isn’t necessarily a bad decision. It’s possible that Pryor could continue his development and improve the team. But the rest of the roster is as stripped bare as it could be. Their best players are veterans like Charles Woodson, players whose abilities will only continue to decline. They have little in the way of young talent and will need to restock through the draft.

Houston Texans (2-7)

The Texans have decent chances of rebounding. Their quarterback situation is definitely in flux, and Gary Kubiak’s job is not secure. Their team is loaded with talent, both young and experienced. If DeAndre Hopkins and Whitney Mercilus can development to complement existing stars such as Andre Johnson, Duane Brown, and JJ Watt, they can get back to the level they were at over the past few years.

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8)

Let me start by congratulating the Jaguars on their first win and wishing them many more over the rest of the season (Teddy Bridgewater will be a Viking.) Also, I would like to express my sympathy for how empty their hopes of improvement are. Gus Bradley will be back next year, but their quarterback position will definitely be upgraded. It’s hard to see how that will matter though, with how depressing the rest of their roster is. If Luke Joeckel can get healthy and Justin Blackmon can sober up, they might have some hope of building a strong foundation. But 6-10 is about the best they can hope for next year, even if they land Bridgewater.

Pittsburgh Steelers (3-6)

The Steelers will not be making changes at quarterback or head coach. Despite reports, they have no interest in trading Roethlisberger. And the team hasn’t fired a head coach since 1969. But that doesn’t mean they won’t be able to improve going into next season. Their offense is one of the youngest in the league, and there are several talented players on their defense waiting to develop. Some of the bigger name players won’t be back (Ryan Clark is gone and Brett Kiesel might follow) but they still have stars in Lawrence Timmons and Antonio Brown. If they can get a quality offensive tackle in the draft, they can put together a solid team next year.

Buffalo Bills (3-7)

The Bills improvement at quarterback next year will come through the development of EJ Manuel. Because of time he’s missed due to injury, it’s difficult to get an idea of how good he actually is. He’s had flashes of competence mixed with a few ugly performances. That’s the biggest question on a roster that otherwise looks promising. Robert Woods, Stephon Gilmore, and Kiko Alonso will only get better. Kyle Williams, Mario Williams, and CJ Spiller are already great. This team has the ability to turn it around, if Manuel can step up his game.

New York Giants (3-6)

The Giants don’t have great chances of improving next year, but there is still hope. That hope is Eli Manning, who has been through plenty of ups and downs over the course of his career. If he can return to the level he was at in 2011, they can push for the playoffs next year. At the same time, the rest of their roster is concerning. Their defense is a disaster, save possibly for Jason Pierre-Paul. Their offensive line has been getting steadily worse over the past five years, though there is some hope that Justin Pugh can take the next step and justify his draft position. But there is a genuine lack of talent on this team, something even a competent Eli can’t make up for.

Washington Redskins (3-6)

The Redskins offense will be fine. RGIII will be fine. That said, there is very little to like about this defense. Brian Orakpo has been disappointing coming off his injury and London Fletcher is going to retire one of these days, leaving Ryan Kerrigan as the only competent player on their defense. They had no first round pick last year and don’t have one next year. This team will suffer from a lack of talent for the next three or four years before they can build something reliable around RGIII.

Minnesota Vikings (2-7)

Call me a homer, but I think the Vikings can turn it around. Remember, this was a playoff team just last year. Leslie Frazier is probably gone after this season, and I don’t think next year’s starting quarterback is on their roster. They may lose Kevin Williams and Jared Allen, but they still have established stars in Adrian Peterson, John Sullivan, and Chad Greenway. In addition to that, they have had five first round picks over the past two years. That is a great deal of young talent ready to step in and become the foundation of a strong roster.

Atlanta Falcons (2-7)

Atlanta has been a disappointing team this year, but I don’t see a great deal that will change going into next season. Mike Smith is not in danger of losing his job, and Matt Ryan will be the starting quarterback for years to come. If they get Julio Jones, Roddy White, and Sean Weatherspoon healthy, they can return to a playoff level. At the same time, there isn’t a great deal of young talent to be excited about. They went all in when they gave up five picks for Julio Jones. Now it looks like their window is starting to close.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-8)

If there is a team that most resembles Kansas City from last year, it is the Buccaneers. This roster is loaded with talent, particularly on the defense. Gerald McCoy, Lavonte David, and Darrelle Revis are already superstars. Young talent like Mark Barron and Doug Martin will continue to get better. Greg Schiano is gone after this year (probably should have been gone a month ago) but Mike Glennon has shown surprising promise since taking over as the starter. Whatever coach they bring in will likely want to move on from him, but he deserves a look as next year’s starter. With competent coaching and quarterback play, this can be a playoff contender.